F. STEINHAUSLER AND
A. SOBEL
CBRN Terrorism Mitigation:
New Aspects
Topics
1. Terrorism Threat2. CBRN Mitigation
1. Terrorism Threat
Threat Development
Suicide terrorismSequential truck bombsState sponsored terrorismSwarm attacksRemote-control of terrorist operationsDual-use-technology terrorism
Threat Outlook
Attacks on chemical facilities, other critical infrastructure
Decoding of individual genomes,metabolomesCommunicable diseasePhysical protection of nuclear weapons
Terrorist Profile & Society Response
MotivationPsychology of groups
and self-organizationRadicalizationSacred valuesMindset of terrorist
Bonding of victimsComplacency towards
security risksExtent of panicSelf-reliance of publicResilience of societyEducation of the next-
generation of scientists
2. CBRN Mitigation
Mitigation and Threat
CBRN weapons are likely to be deployed against:
High concentration of civilians present at high value or symbolic targets
Critical infrastructure (e.g., petrochemical facilities, power plants, pipelines, nuclear sites)
Security forces Psychology and political will
Mitigation and Probability
CBRN deployment has widely differing probability:
High p: Low-cost Easy to make R-device
Easy to access and dual-use
Medium p: Low-cost Crude B-, C-device
Low p: Material acquisition complex Improvised N-device;
weaponize (HEU-based device only)
Examples in Countries with Large Populations: Russia and India
Russia: Critique on politicizing Nuclear Terrorism and overestimating risk
Need for increased realism in CBRN mitigation
India: Predominant weighing different
threats to society and ideologiesRanking of CBRN within the scope of
conventional terrorismLow key efforts to mitigate CBRN in
large populations
Information Needs
CBRN Mitigation requires information on:
1. Equipment/processes necessary for the evaluationevaluation of a CBRN incident
2. Minimum capability for a nation, local government or individual to adequately identifyidentify and mitigatemitigate the consequences
3. Adequacy of international, national, regional or local communicationcommunication systems and standards available
Innovative Emergency Response Management: Cellular Phone System
Information relayed to individuals in emergency zone
PLUS: Data/science-driven management of overall emergency response
OPEN ISSUE: Technical implementation
CBRN Scenario Testing
Nuclear Attack:1.Large city under N-attack by boat 2. Important role of fallout mappingPLUS: Multidimensional information
infrastructure in placeOPEN ISSUE: Feasibility of scenario design
White Powder Attack: 1.Small city facing unknown threat2. Important role of decision forming process/immediate
stepsPLUS: Logical deduction by exclusion &
confirmation OPEN ISSUE: First Responder capability
Post-Attack 100 Days
1. Chemical: Thousand of victims Present emergency management feasible, if
adequate Public Health System in placeOPEN ISSUE: Questionable surge capacity and
sustainability
1. Biological: Tens of thousands of victims Adequacy of current emergency management
questionable in case of epidemic due to overburdening of Public Health System
OPEN ISSUE: Logistical problems with quarantine and baseline assessment of endemic disease
Post-Attack 100 Days (continued)
1. Radiological: Dozens of victims Current emergency management adequate Sound clean-up procedures and targeted communication-
strategy are keyOPEN ISSUE: Stigmatization of victims; property devaluation
1. Nuclear: Tens of thousands of victims, depending on yield,
population density, mode of deployment and metrological conditions
Successful emergency management dependent on timely arrival of adequate outside assistance
Long-term problems likelyOPEN ISSUE: Uncertain resilience of survivors until arrival of
external assistance; genetics and impact on health issues of future generations
Summary
A simplified one-science approach is recommended for CBRN operations
Many domains have yet to be explored to include the complex systems impacting CBRN operations
Psychological and political realms Adaptive and self-organizing networks Autonomous systems Understanding of human factors