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Food and Biofuel
Jan Kees Vis
Unilever
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What is sustainable?
If we can continue doing it indefinitely, i.e.
Sustainable activities contribute to Financial capitalSocial capitalHuman capitalNatural capital
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Planet Earth
Time
Natural Resource Consumption
4,500,000,0003,500,000,0003,000,000,0002,000,000,0001,000,000,000
530,000,000480,000,000310,000,000
200,00032,00010,000
500
Planet earthProto-bacteriaPhotosynthesisEukaryotic cellsAlgaeFishPlantsEarly mammalsHomo SapiensCave paintingsAgricultureIndustrialisation
00:0005:3008:0014:0019:0021:1021:3022:2223:59:5823:59:59:4023:59:59:8023:59:59:99
1 2 3 4
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Agriculture’s Current Global Footprint
33% of earth’s surface in crops or grazing—55% of habitable area
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Ecosystems
• Change in ecosystems can stretch over billions of years
• There is no way of knowing what might be in store
• Current system supports homo sapiens
• Mankind has a marked influence on ecosystem services (MEA)
• Sustainability is an anthropogenic concept
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Nature is insensitive Nature is tolerant
Nature is benevolent Nature is vulnerable
Simple System Dynamics
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Disturbing the equilibrium
Ag system
Edible oils market:2.5 m barrels/day
Ag system
Energy market:85.5 m barrels/day
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Oil Palm and Forest Cover in Borneo
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Biofuels & Renewables from Agriculture
Biodiesel Palm oil Canola/Rape Soy Jatropha Pongamia Castor oil Sunflower Safflower Sugarcane
Bioethanol Sugarcane Sugar beet Corn Wheat Grapes
Cellulosic Ethanol Crop residue (rice, wheat, corn, sorghum) Perennial grasses Temperate tree plantations Tropical tree plantations
#2 Heating/Furnace Oil Palm oil
Renewable Energy Crop residue Temperate tree plantations Tropical tree plantations
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Change vs disruption
• Ecosystems change all the time
• Natural change happens at geological time scales
• Ecosystems can flip from one dynamic equilibrium to another, but
• These transitions cannot be managed and must therefore be avoided
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Reduce dependence on fossil fuel
• Energy conservation
• Low energy technologies
• (Capture carbon dioxide emissions)
• Alternative fuels waste to energy biomass to energy
direct conversion (power stations) biomass to liquid
• biofuels (bioethanol, biodiesel)
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IF biofuels is a good idea….
• Then agriculture will have to produce food, feed, fiber and fuel
• For a population that will grow to 10 billion
• Land will be the limiting factor,
• Together with water
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..then these are the challenges
• Make optimum use of land in cultivation (no extensive agriculture)
• Organise access for farmers to best available technology
• Prioritise through policy instruments relative importance of food, feed, fiber, fuel
• “If burning food is a bad idea, then burning food with subsidy is criminal”
• “Consumption vs combustion”
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Biofuels are not necessarily sustainable• Farm inputs account for a lot of fossil fuel
• Net energy balance needs to be calculated
• Net carbon balance needs to be calculated Carbon to air Carbon to soil
• Soil health is crucial to productive capacity
• Replacement effects on other markets