Food and Biofuel

Jan Kees Vis

Unilever

What is sustainable?

If we can continue doing it indefinitely, i.e.

Sustainable activities contribute to Financial capitalSocial capitalHuman capitalNatural capital

Planet Earth

Time

Natural Resource Consumption

4,500,000,0003,500,000,0003,000,000,0002,000,000,0001,000,000,000

530,000,000480,000,000310,000,000

200,00032,00010,000

500

Planet earthProto-bacteriaPhotosynthesisEukaryotic cellsAlgaeFishPlantsEarly mammalsHomo SapiensCave paintingsAgricultureIndustrialisation

00:0005:3008:0014:0019:0021:1021:3022:2223:59:5823:59:59:4023:59:59:8023:59:59:99

1 2 3 4

Agriculture’s Current Global Footprint

33% of earth’s surface in crops or grazing—55% of habitable area

Ecosystems

• Change in ecosystems can stretch over billions of years

• There is no way of knowing what might be in store

• Current system supports homo sapiens

• Mankind has a marked influence on ecosystem services (MEA)

• Sustainability is an anthropogenic concept

Nature is insensitive Nature is tolerant

Nature is benevolent Nature is vulnerable

Simple System Dynamics

Disturbing the equilibrium

Ag system

Edible oils market:2.5 m barrels/day

Ag system

Energy market:85.5 m barrels/day

Oil Palm and Forest Cover in Borneo

Biofuels & Renewables from Agriculture

Biodiesel Palm oil Canola/Rape Soy Jatropha Pongamia Castor oil Sunflower Safflower Sugarcane

Bioethanol Sugarcane Sugar beet Corn Wheat Grapes

Cellulosic Ethanol Crop residue (rice, wheat, corn, sorghum) Perennial grasses Temperate tree plantations Tropical tree plantations

#2 Heating/Furnace Oil Palm oil

Renewable Energy Crop residue Temperate tree plantations Tropical tree plantations

Change vs disruption

• Ecosystems change all the time

• Natural change happens at geological time scales

• Ecosystems can flip from one dynamic equilibrium to another, but

• These transitions cannot be managed and must therefore be avoided

Reduce dependence on fossil fuel

• Energy conservation

• Low energy technologies

• (Capture carbon dioxide emissions)

• Alternative fuels waste to energy biomass to energy

direct conversion (power stations) biomass to liquid

• biofuels (bioethanol, biodiesel)

IF biofuels is a good idea….

• Then agriculture will have to produce food, feed, fiber and fuel

• For a population that will grow to 10 billion

• Land will be the limiting factor,

• Together with water

..then these are the challenges

• Make optimum use of land in cultivation (no extensive agriculture)

• Organise access for farmers to best available technology

• Prioritise through policy instruments relative importance of food, feed, fiber, fuel

• “If burning food is a bad idea, then burning food with subsidy is criminal”

• “Consumption vs combustion”

Biofuels are not necessarily sustainable• Farm inputs account for a lot of fossil fuel

• Net energy balance needs to be calculated

• Net carbon balance needs to be calculated Carbon to air Carbon to soil

• Soil health is crucial to productive capacity

• Replacement effects on other markets