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FORECASTING THE MEDIA FUTURE
Guy Abrahams Global Strategic Planning Director
© 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
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= + +
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=-£1bn CUMULATIVE LOSS IN UK ADSPEND
BY 2030
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AVERAGE ANNUAL ADSPEND GROWTH 2015-2018
+8.5%
+6.3% +3.5%
+3.1%
+2.7% +2.2%
+1.8% -5.8%
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DIGITAL ADSPEND OVERTAKES TV
2018
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EUROPE VS GLOBAL
2016
2018
OF DIG ITAL ADSPEND IN CENTRAL & WESTERN EUROPE IS SEARCH
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+80% INCREASE IN
PROGRAMMATIC ADSPEND
2017 vs 2015 CENTRAL &
WESTERN EUROPE. %
DISPLAY 2017 =61.3
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MOBILE = 87% ADSPEND GROWTH TO
2018
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WE TEND TO OVERESTIMATE
THE EFFECT OF A
TECHNOLOGY IN THE SHORT
RUN AND UNDERESTIMATE THE
EFFECT IN THE LONG RUN.
B Y R O Y A M A R A , PA S T
P R E S I D E N T O F T H E I N S T I T U T E
F O R T H E F U T U R E
© 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
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THE YEAR OF THE MOBILE LASTED A LONG TIME
© 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
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© 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
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© 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
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PREDICTING THE MOBILE FUTURE
DATA ACTIVITY TIME
© 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
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3 QUESTIONS TO DETERMINE YOUR MOBILE GENIUS
SOURCE: CISCO 3RD FEBRUARY 2016 © 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
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GET OUT YOUR PHONES OR TABLET
LOG ON TO KAHOOT.IT NOW
© 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
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IT’S ABOUT THE FUTURE NOT THE PAST
+827%
SOURCE: CISCO 3RD FEBRUARY 2016 © 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
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PREDICTING THE MOBILE FUTURE
DATA ACTIVITY TIME
© 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
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© 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
50%+ WEBPAGE TRAFFIC FROM PHONE OR
TABLET
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SOURCE: GOOGLE 2016 AUTOMOTIVE SEARCH VIA (PHONE & TABLET) / FORECAST ZENITHOPTIMEDIA ESTIMATE)
SEARCH IS ALREADY MOBILE
% G O O G L E S E A R C H E S V I A M O B I L E Q4 2015
58%
A U T O M O T I V E
58%
C O N S U M E R
E L E C T R O N I C S
62%
F O O D &
G R O C E R I E S
47%
I N S U R A N C E
50%
I N T E R N E T &
T E L E C O M
© 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
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SOURCE: GOOGLE 2016 AUTOMOTIVE SEARCH VIA (PHONE & TABLET) / FORECAST ZENITHOPTIMEDIA ESTIMATE)
SEARCH IS ALREADY MOBILE
% G O O G L E S E A R C H E S V I A M O B I L E Q4 2018
69% 74% 74%
56%
78%
AUTOMOTIVE CONSUMER
ELECTRONIC
S
FOOD &
GROCERIES INSURANCE
INTERNET &
TELECOM
© 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
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IT’S ALL ABOUT APPS…
EXCLUDES APPS PUBLISHED BY OEMS
EXCLUDES PRE-INSTALLED APPS PUBLISHED BY APPLE
ANDROID IOS
WORLDWIDE (EXCLUDING CHINA), FEBRUARY 14 - FEBRUARY 20, 2016
T O P A P P S B Y W E E K LY A C T I V E U S E R S
APPS PER DAY 13
Facebook 4/15
5/15
1. 2. 3.
4. 5. 6.
7. 8. 9.
10. 11. 12.
13. 14. 15.
1. 2. 3.
4. 5. 6.
7. 8. 9.
10. 11. 12.
13. 14. 15.
SOURCE: © 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
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IN THREE YEARS,
SOCIAL WILL BE A
‘MOBILE’ MEDIUM.
ZENITH
‘ALWAYS ON’
SEPT 2009
Q 3 2 0 0 9 M O B I L L E
P A G E V I E W S
Q 3 2 0 0 6 M O B I L L E
P A G E V I E W S
VS
© 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
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MOBILE GAMING – JAPAN & KOREA
© 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
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KENYA – MOBILE PAYMENTS
© 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
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CHINA – MESSAGING
© 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
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PREDICTING THE MOBILE FUTURE
DATA ACTIVITY TIME
© 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
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WHY INTERNET T IME ON MOBILE PHONE IS IMPORTANT
© 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
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GAMECHANGING GROWTH IN MOBILE USAGE
DAILY T IME SPENT ON
MOBILE
S O U R C E : G W I F E B R U A R Y 2 0 1 6 © 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
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SOURCE: GWI FEBRUARY 2016
52%
© 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.
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PREDICTING THE MOBILE FUTURE
DATA ACTIVITY TIME
© 2016 Copyright Zenith Group Ltd. All rights reserved.