![Page 1: Future Climate Extremes: Physical and Human Dimensions Claudia Tebaldi Climate Central & NCAR Brian O’Neill NCAR November 13, 2012 CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY](https://reader036.vdocument.in/reader036/viewer/2022062802/56649ea05503460f94ba3cf3/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Future Climate Extremes:Physical and Human DimensionsClaudia TebaldiClimate Central & NCAR
Brian O’NeillNCAR
November 13, 2012
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARYAny use of this material without specific permission of UCAR-NCAR is strictly prohibited
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From IPCC SREX (2012) SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS
2
Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX)
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The physical dimension of changing risks:
• Climate Extremes
• Coastal Flooding
The human dimension of changing risks:
• Exposure: Spatial Population Distribution
• Vulnerability: Indexes and Economic Interactions
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The physical dimension of changing risks:
• Climate Extremes
• Coastal Flooding
The human dimension of changing risks:
• Exposure: Spatial Population Distribution
• Vulnerability: Indexes and Economic Interactions
4
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Mechanisms responsible for changes in climate extremes
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1)
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Mechanisms responsible for changes in climate extremes
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2)
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Mechanisms responsible for changes in climate extremes
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3)
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When the shift in mean explains the most:Heat extremes : Ratio of record high vs. record low
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Meehl et al., 2009: Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S . GRL
Annual values of the ratio of record high vs. record low
US average, observed
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When the shift in mean explains the most:Heat extremes : Ratio of record high vs. record low
9
Meehl et al., 2009: Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S . GRL
Annual values of the ratio of record high vs. record low
US average, observed
Long term trend
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When the shift in mean explains the most:Heat extremes : Ratio of record high vs. record low
10
Meehl et al., 2009: Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S . GRL
Annual values of the ratio of record high vs. record low
US average, observed
Long term trend
Confidence interval under the assumption of no long term trend
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When the shift in mean explains the most:Heat extremes : Ratio of record high vs. record low
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Meehl et al., 2009: Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S . GRL
US average, observed US average, CCSM
US average, CCSM, Future
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And just in case you are curious about the past year:
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http://www.climatecentral.org/news/2012-record-temperatures-which-states-led-the-nation-14951
US as a whole:7.6
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When the shift in variance is more relevant:Precipitation extremes
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Meehl et al., 2005: Understanding future patterns of increased precipitation intensity in climate model simulations. GRLTebaldi et al., 2007: Going to the extremes. Climatic ChangeTebaldi et al., 2012: Mapping model agreement on future climate projections. GRL
Future Changes in Mean Precipitation Future Changes in Precipitation Intensity
Green-Blue: Increase in precipitation amountsPink-Brown: Decrease in precipitation amounts
Stippling: Model consensus
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Most recent simulation results: NCAR’s CCSM4 under different scenariosChanges in average temperature during the warmest three nights of the year (degrees C) by the end of the century
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Meehl et al., 2012: Climate System Response to External Forcings and Climate Change Projections in CCSM4. J. of Climate
Low Forcing – High Mitigation High Forcing – No Mitigation
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Most recent simulation results: CCSM4 under different scenariosChange in Precipitation Intensity (mm/day) by the end of the century
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Meehl et al., 2012: Climate System Response to External Forcings and Climate Change Projections in CCSM4 . J. of Climate
Low Forcing – High Mitigation High Forcing – No Mitigation
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The physical dimension of changing risks:
• Climate Extremes
• Coastal Flooding
The human dimension of changing risks:
• Exposure: Spatial Population Distribution
• Vulnerability: Indexes and Economic Interactions
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Changes in risk of coastal floods from storm surges as an effect of mean sea level rise
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Tebaldi et al. 2012: Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts. Envir. Res. Letters
Current 100-year events (meters above Mean High Water)
0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5
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Changes in risk of coastal floods from storm surges as an effect of mean sea level rise
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Current Sea Level Rise (1959-2008)(mm/year)
-2 – 0 0 – 2 2 – 4 4 – 6 6 – 6.5
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Future (2008-2050) Sea Level Rise
(meters)
0.1-0.2 0.2-0.3 0.3-0.4 0.4-0.5
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The Battery, NY: Storm Surges (meters above Mean High Water)
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Sandy’ssurge
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The Battery, NY: Storm Surges(meters above Mean High Water)
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The 100-yr event becomes the 15-yr event by 2050
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Future extremes’ changed frequencies
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Every how many years will today’s 100-year event recur, by 2050?
1 2 5 10 20 30 50 75 100
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By at most the end of the century 6 ft surges will be happening on average every other year, or more frequently.
23
Strauss et al., 2012: Tidally adjusted estimates of topographic vulnerability to sea level rise and flooding for the contiguous United States . Envir. Res. Letters
Terrain inundated by 6ft surges
http://sealevel.climatecentral.org
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From IPCC SREX (2012) SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS
24
Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX)
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The physical dimension of changing risks:
• Climate Extremes
• Coastal Flooding
The human dimension of changing risks:
• Exposure: Spatial Population Distribution
• Vulnerability: Indexes and Economic Interactions
25
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Spatial Population Projection: Florida
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Physical Impact Population Exposure
20002100
Jones & O’Neill, in prep.
Terrain inundated by 6 ft surges
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Spatial Population Projection: Florida
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Current
High Growth, 2100
Medium Growth, 2100
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Spatial Population Projection:Hurricane Sandy Landfall Area
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20002100
TheBattery
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Existing Projection, 2100State of the art, 2007
Shortcomings:
Topography Protected areas Borders Calibration
Spatial Population Projection: National
Gruebler et al., 2007.
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Existing Projection, 2100NCAR Projection, 2100
Spatial Population Projection: National
Jones & O’Neill, in prep.
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Projected Population Distribution
Spatial Population Projection: Global
Projected Heat Extremes
Gruebler et al., 2007.
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The physical dimension of changing risks:
• Climate Extremes
• Coastal Flooding
The human dimension of changing risks:
• Exposure: Spatial Population Distribution
• Vulnerability: Indexes and Economic Interactions
32
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Vulnerability Index
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Income
EducationHuman
DevelopmentIndex
Fertility,Population
Growth, Age Structure
Life Expectancy
Vulnerability
Measuring vulnerability
SeparateProjections
ModeledOutcomes
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0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Hum
an D
evel
opm
ent I
ndex
(HD
I)OIC
LAC
CHN
ODC
IND
SSA
Human Development Index
34
Sub-Saharan Africa
India
Other Dev. Ctries
China
Lat. Am. & Carrib.
Other Indust. Ctries
O’Neill et al., in prep.
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Integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science (iPETS) Model
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TransitionCountries
Other Indust.Countries
Other Devel.CountriesSub-Sah.
Africa
USA
LatinAmerica
EU-27+
China
India
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Economic interactions
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CESM iPETS
ClimateRisks
e.g., Crop Productione.g., Extreme Heat, Drought
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Cropland
Economic Interactions: Agricultural impacts
iPETS Results, Latin America region:Effect of reduced productivity on land use and food prices
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Change in Food Price
BaselineScenario
ReducedProductivity
Increase in FoodPrice due to Reduced Productivity
Mill
ion
Hec
tare
s
Pric
e ch
ange
(%
)
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Summary
Projecting changes in both physical and human systems is necessary for anticipating future risks from climate change
Progress requires closer integration of research on climate science and human systems
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Acknowledgments
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NCAR Integrated Science Program
DOE Cooperative Agreement DE-FC02-97ER62402
DOE Integrated Assessment Research Program
G. Meehl, G. Strand (NCAR); J. Arblaster (NCAR and CSIRO); B. Strauss, D. Adams-Smith, R. Ziemelinski (Climate Central);Chris Zervas (NOAA);
Bryan Jones, Xiaolin Ren, Leiwen Jiang (NCAR); Shonali Pachauri, Regina Fuchs, Samir KC (IIASA); Michael Dalton (NOAA); Ed Balistreri (Colorado School of Mines).