future climate extremes: physical and human dimensions claudia tebaldi climate central & ncar...
TRANSCRIPT
Future Climate Extremes:Physical and Human DimensionsClaudia TebaldiClimate Central & NCAR
Brian O’NeillNCAR
November 13, 2012
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARYAny use of this material without specific permission of UCAR-NCAR is strictly prohibited
From IPCC SREX (2012) SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS
2
Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX)
The physical dimension of changing risks:
• Climate Extremes
• Coastal Flooding
The human dimension of changing risks:
• Exposure: Spatial Population Distribution
• Vulnerability: Indexes and Economic Interactions
3
The physical dimension of changing risks:
• Climate Extremes
• Coastal Flooding
The human dimension of changing risks:
• Exposure: Spatial Population Distribution
• Vulnerability: Indexes and Economic Interactions
4
Mechanisms responsible for changes in climate extremes
5
1)
Mechanisms responsible for changes in climate extremes
6
2)
Mechanisms responsible for changes in climate extremes
7
3)
When the shift in mean explains the most:Heat extremes : Ratio of record high vs. record low
8
Meehl et al., 2009: Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S . GRL
Annual values of the ratio of record high vs. record low
US average, observed
When the shift in mean explains the most:Heat extremes : Ratio of record high vs. record low
9
Meehl et al., 2009: Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S . GRL
Annual values of the ratio of record high vs. record low
US average, observed
Long term trend
When the shift in mean explains the most:Heat extremes : Ratio of record high vs. record low
10
Meehl et al., 2009: Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S . GRL
Annual values of the ratio of record high vs. record low
US average, observed
Long term trend
Confidence interval under the assumption of no long term trend
When the shift in mean explains the most:Heat extremes : Ratio of record high vs. record low
11
Meehl et al., 2009: Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S . GRL
US average, observed US average, CCSM
US average, CCSM, Future
And just in case you are curious about the past year:
12
http://www.climatecentral.org/news/2012-record-temperatures-which-states-led-the-nation-14951
US as a whole:7.6
When the shift in variance is more relevant:Precipitation extremes
13
Meehl et al., 2005: Understanding future patterns of increased precipitation intensity in climate model simulations. GRLTebaldi et al., 2007: Going to the extremes. Climatic ChangeTebaldi et al., 2012: Mapping model agreement on future climate projections. GRL
Future Changes in Mean Precipitation Future Changes in Precipitation Intensity
Green-Blue: Increase in precipitation amountsPink-Brown: Decrease in precipitation amounts
Stippling: Model consensus
Most recent simulation results: NCAR’s CCSM4 under different scenariosChanges in average temperature during the warmest three nights of the year (degrees C) by the end of the century
14
Meehl et al., 2012: Climate System Response to External Forcings and Climate Change Projections in CCSM4. J. of Climate
Low Forcing – High Mitigation High Forcing – No Mitigation
Most recent simulation results: CCSM4 under different scenariosChange in Precipitation Intensity (mm/day) by the end of the century
15
Meehl et al., 2012: Climate System Response to External Forcings and Climate Change Projections in CCSM4 . J. of Climate
Low Forcing – High Mitigation High Forcing – No Mitigation
The physical dimension of changing risks:
• Climate Extremes
• Coastal Flooding
The human dimension of changing risks:
• Exposure: Spatial Population Distribution
• Vulnerability: Indexes and Economic Interactions
16
Changes in risk of coastal floods from storm surges as an effect of mean sea level rise
17
Tebaldi et al. 2012: Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts. Envir. Res. Letters
Current 100-year events (meters above Mean High Water)
0-1 1-2 2-3 3-4 4-5
Changes in risk of coastal floods from storm surges as an effect of mean sea level rise
18
Current Sea Level Rise (1959-2008)(mm/year)
-2 – 0 0 – 2 2 – 4 4 – 6 6 – 6.5
19
Future (2008-2050) Sea Level Rise
(meters)
0.1-0.2 0.2-0.3 0.3-0.4 0.4-0.5
The Battery, NY: Storm Surges (meters above Mean High Water)
20
Sandy’ssurge
The Battery, NY: Storm Surges(meters above Mean High Water)
21
The 100-yr event becomes the 15-yr event by 2050
Future extremes’ changed frequencies
22
Every how many years will today’s 100-year event recur, by 2050?
1 2 5 10 20 30 50 75 100
By at most the end of the century 6 ft surges will be happening on average every other year, or more frequently.
23
Strauss et al., 2012: Tidally adjusted estimates of topographic vulnerability to sea level rise and flooding for the contiguous United States . Envir. Res. Letters
Terrain inundated by 6ft surges
http://sealevel.climatecentral.org
From IPCC SREX (2012) SUMMARY FOR POLICY MAKERS
24
Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX)
The physical dimension of changing risks:
• Climate Extremes
• Coastal Flooding
The human dimension of changing risks:
• Exposure: Spatial Population Distribution
• Vulnerability: Indexes and Economic Interactions
25
Spatial Population Projection: Florida
26
Physical Impact Population Exposure
20002100
Jones & O’Neill, in prep.
Terrain inundated by 6 ft surges
Spatial Population Projection: Florida
27
Current
High Growth, 2100
Medium Growth, 2100
Spatial Population Projection:Hurricane Sandy Landfall Area
28
20002100
TheBattery
29
Existing Projection, 2100State of the art, 2007
Shortcomings:
Topography Protected areas Borders Calibration
Spatial Population Projection: National
Gruebler et al., 2007.
30
Existing Projection, 2100NCAR Projection, 2100
Spatial Population Projection: National
Jones & O’Neill, in prep.
31
Projected Population Distribution
Spatial Population Projection: Global
Projected Heat Extremes
Gruebler et al., 2007.
The physical dimension of changing risks:
• Climate Extremes
• Coastal Flooding
The human dimension of changing risks:
• Exposure: Spatial Population Distribution
• Vulnerability: Indexes and Economic Interactions
32
Vulnerability Index
33
Income
EducationHuman
DevelopmentIndex
Fertility,Population
Growth, Age Structure
Life Expectancy
Vulnerability
Measuring vulnerability
SeparateProjections
ModeledOutcomes
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Hum
an D
evel
opm
ent I
ndex
(HD
I)OIC
LAC
CHN
ODC
IND
SSA
Human Development Index
34
Sub-Saharan Africa
India
Other Dev. Ctries
China
Lat. Am. & Carrib.
Other Indust. Ctries
O’Neill et al., in prep.
Integrated Population-Economy-Technology-Science (iPETS) Model
35
TransitionCountries
Other Indust.Countries
Other Devel.CountriesSub-Sah.
Africa
USA
LatinAmerica
EU-27+
China
India
Economic interactions
36
CESM iPETS
ClimateRisks
e.g., Crop Productione.g., Extreme Heat, Drought
Cropland
Economic Interactions: Agricultural impacts
iPETS Results, Latin America region:Effect of reduced productivity on land use and food prices
37
Change in Food Price
BaselineScenario
ReducedProductivity
Increase in FoodPrice due to Reduced Productivity
Mill
ion
Hec
tare
s
Pric
e ch
ange
(%
)
Summary
Projecting changes in both physical and human systems is necessary for anticipating future risks from climate change
Progress requires closer integration of research on climate science and human systems
38
Acknowledgments
39
NCAR Integrated Science Program
DOE Cooperative Agreement DE-FC02-97ER62402
DOE Integrated Assessment Research Program
G. Meehl, G. Strand (NCAR); J. Arblaster (NCAR and CSIRO); B. Strauss, D. Adams-Smith, R. Ziemelinski (Climate Central);Chris Zervas (NOAA);
Bryan Jones, Xiaolin Ren, Leiwen Jiang (NCAR); Shonali Pachauri, Regina Fuchs, Samir KC (IIASA); Michael Dalton (NOAA); Ed Balistreri (Colorado School of Mines).