![Page 1: Global climate change - cons101-forestry.sites.olt.ubc.cacons101-forestry.sites.olt.ubc.ca/files/2017/09/Lecture-2-climate-change.pdfIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052019/60332130fc399d7c0c489a0a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Globalclimatechange
1
⚈ Lectureoutline/goals:¡ Climatechange–abriefoverview¡ Someglobalindicators¡ Climatechangemi<ga<on
• poten<alforCarbonsequestra<oninforests
¡ Adap<ngtoclimatechange
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Arrhenius,S.1896.Ontheinfluenceofcarbonicacidintheairuponthetemperatureoftheground.PhilosophicalMagazine41,237
⚈ IncreasedCO2intheairwillincreasegroundtemperatures
⚈ Strongerinfluencenearthepolesthanneartheequator
⚈ Strongerimpactinthenorthernhemisphere
⚈ Diminisheddifferenceintemperaturebetweendayandnight
![Page 3: Global climate change - cons101-forestry.sites.olt.ubc.cacons101-forestry.sites.olt.ubc.ca/files/2017/09/Lecture-2-climate-change.pdfIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052019/60332130fc399d7c0c489a0a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
IntergovernmentalPanelonClimateChange(IPCC)
⚈ Scien<ficbodycreatedin1988upontherequestofmembergovernments⚈ EndorsedbytheUnitedNa<ons⚈ Mission:
¡ providecomprehensivescien<ficassessmentsabouttheriskofclimatechangecausedbyhumanac<vity,itspoten<alconsequences,andpossibleop<onsforadap<ngtotheseconsequencesormi<ga<ngtheeffects
⚈ Voluntarycontribu<onsfromthousandsofscien<sts⚈ Interna<onallyacceptedauthorityonclimatechange⚈ Reliesonconsensus⚈ NobelPeacePrize2007⚈ See:h^p://www.ipcc.ch/
![Page 4: Global climate change - cons101-forestry.sites.olt.ubc.cacons101-forestry.sites.olt.ubc.ca/files/2017/09/Lecture-2-climate-change.pdfIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052019/60332130fc399d7c0c489a0a/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
ChangesinatmosphericGHG’soverthepast20,000years
⚈ Thedebateisover…⚈ GHGconcentra<onsbeyond
rangeofnaturalvariability⚈ CO2=greatestradia<veforcing
CO2
200
240
280
320
360
400 Me
an pp
m
-2
-1
0
1
Radia
tive f
orcin
g (W
m-2)
CH4 Ra
diativ
e for
cing (
Wm-2
)
Mean
ppb
500
1000
1500
2000
-20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 Time (years bp)
-0.4
-0.2
0
0.2
0.4
N2O
Radia
tive f
orcin
g (W
m-2)
-20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 Time (years bp)
Mean
ppb 0
0.1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3 200
250
300
From IPCC AR4 WG1 Tech Summary 2007
Range over past 650,000 years
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HistoricCO2levels⚈ Fluctua<onsbetweenglacia<ons⚈ Currentlevelshighestinlast420,000yrs,possiblythelast20millionyrs⚈ Projectedlevels550–950ppmby2100
-450 -400 -350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 150
200
250
300
350
400
Atmo
sphe
ric C
O 2 (pp
mV)
Thousands of years
1970 1980 1990 2000 1960 310
320
330
340
350
360
Atmo
sphe
ric C
O 2 Co
ncen
tratio
n (pp
m)
Human perturbation
From IPCC AR4 WG1 Tech Summary 2007
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Globallandsurfacetemperaturechanges
⚈ Closeagreementbetweenobserva<onsandmodelsincorpora<ngnaturalandhumanforcing
⚈ Noapparenttemperatureincreasewithouthumaninputs
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year
0
0.5
1.0
Temp
eratu
re an
omaly
(°C)
Observed mean temp by decade
Models using only natural forcings (i.e. solar activity and volcanoes)
Models using natural and anthropogenic forcings
From IPCC AR5 WG1 Tech Summary 2013
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From IPCC AR5, 2013
⚈ Previous10yearswerethewarmestyearsintheinstrumentalrecord(since1850)ofglobalsurfacetemperature
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Globalclimatechangeindicators:polaricecaps
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Globalclimatechangeindicators:glaciersandsnowcover
⚈ Decliningsnowcover⚈ Widespreadretreatofglaciersinbothhemispheres
Grinnell Glacier, Glacier National Park, USA 1938 – 2005
1938 1981 1998 2005
![Page 10: Global climate change - cons101-forestry.sites.olt.ubc.cacons101-forestry.sites.olt.ubc.ca/files/2017/09/Lecture-2-climate-change.pdfIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052019/60332130fc399d7c0c489a0a/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Globalclimatechangeindicators:risingsealevel
⚈ Globalaveragesealevelrisefrom1961-2003=1.8mm/yr(3.1mm/yrfrom1993-2003)
⚈ Sources=thermalexpansion,glaciersandicecaps,GreenlandIceSheet,Antarc<cIceSheet⚈ ManyPacificislandsthreatened
Global average sea level
1850 1900 1950 2000 Year
Diffe
renc
e fro
m 19
61-1
990 (
mm)
-150
-100
-50
0
50
From IPCC AR5 WG1 Tech Summary 2013
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Globalclimatechangeindicators:extremeweatherevents⚈ IPCCAR4WGII2007,“…confidencehasincreasedthatsomeweathereventsand
extremeswillbecomemorefrequent,morewidespreadand/ormoreintenseduringthe21stcentury…”
Drought
Floods
Heat waves
Precipitation Cyclones/storms
July 31, 2003
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Warmingscenariosforfutureprojec<onsIPCCFilhAssessmentReport(AR5)2013
⚈ Representa<veConcentra<onPathways(RCPs)¡ RCP2.6–decliningCO2
¡ RCP4.5–peakCO2in2040,declinetherealer¡ RCP6–stableCO2by2100¡ RCP8.5–con<nuedrisingCO2
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0.0
-1.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0 D
epar
ture
s (°
C) f
rom
the
1961
-199
0 av
erag
e Northern hemisphere
1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 Year
Variations in the Earth’s surface temperature – past, present…
Instrumental data (AD 1902-1999) Reconstruction (AD 1000-1980) Reconstruction (40-year smoothed)
From IPCC TAR 2001
Global
2100
Scenario models envelope
Range from scenario models
5.8°
1.4°
future
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Projec<onsoffuturecondi<ons1986-2005versus2081-2100
From IPCC AR5 WG1 Tech Summary 2013
Average temperature
Average precipitation
Average sea level
RCP 2.6 RCP 8.5
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Forests/forestryversusclimatechange
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Climatechangemi<ga<on:forestry
⚈ Lessthanhalfofhumanemissionsstayinatmosphere
3.2 ± 0.1 GtC/yr Airborne fraction
Atmosphere
Biosphere
6.4 ± 0.4 Fossil fuel
2.2 ± 0.4 Ocean uptake
1.6 ± 0.9 Land-use change
2.6 ± 0.1 Land uptake
(esp. forests)
Data from IPCC AR4 WG1 2007
Reduce emissions Increase sinks
⚈ Mitigation = reduced emissions and/or increased sinks
⚈ Forests/forestry can have significant impacts on future CO2 concentrations
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Forestsandcarbon
⚈ Globalfossilcarbonemissions~7Gt/yr⚈ Equivalentto:
o 28billionm3ofwood(28,000×Gudrun)o halfofthebiomassCinCanada’smanagedforest
Sweden:cycloneGudrun(2005)
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⚈ ForestsandforestrycannotsolvetheproblemoffossilCemissions,buttheycancontributetothesolu<on
⚈ Reduceddeforesta<on,increasedafforesta<oncouldmorethanoffsetglobalcarbonemissionsfromthetransporta<onsector(Stern2006)
Forestsandmi<ga<on
![Page 19: Global climate change - cons101-forestry.sites.olt.ubc.cacons101-forestry.sites.olt.ubc.ca/files/2017/09/Lecture-2-climate-change.pdfIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022052019/60332130fc399d7c0c489a0a/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Mi<ga<onop<onsintheforestsector
⚈ Increase(ormaintain)forestarea
⚈ Increasecarbondensity
⚈ IncreasestoredCinproducts
⚈ Reducefossilemissionsthroughproductsubs<tu<onandbioenergy
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Warmingwillcon<nueevenwithmi<ga<on
⚈ Con<nuedwarmingevenwithemissionsheldat2000levels
⚈ Adapta<onisrequired
From IPCC AR4 WG1 Tech Summary 2007
1st assessment report 2nd assessment report 3rd assessment report Observed
Constant from 2000
Emissions scenarios
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BC’sadapta<onstrategy:preparingforclimatechange(see:www.env.gov.bc.ca/cas/adapta<on/)
⚈ Strategy1:Buildastrongfounda<onofknowledge¡ Engageclimatescience¡ Buildrobustobserva<onnetworks¡ Developadapta<onplanningtools¡ Knowledgetransferandoutreachac<vi<es
⚈ Strategy2:Makeadapta<onpartofgov’tbusiness¡ Consideradapta<oninplanning¡ Implementthroughacoordinatedapproach
⚈ Strategy3:Assessrisksandimplementpriorityadapta<onac<onsinsectors¡ Assessrisksandimplementac<ons
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Ques<onstoreview:
⚈ WhatistheIPCC,andwhatisitsmission?⚈ Whatarethethreemaingreenhousegases,andwhich
causesthemostwarming?⚈ Name3indicatorsofglobalclimatechange.⚈ Give3waysthattheforestsectorcanhelpmi<gate
climatechange.⚈ Whatarethe3strategiescurrentlyemployedbytheBC
governmenttoadapttoclimatechange?