Download - GOTV Data
GOTV DATA
Katie EllisCommunity Outreach Group
FOLLOWING THE LAWELECTIONS.NEWORGANIZING.COM
FOLLOWING THE LAW
WWW.AFJ.ORG
Presenter:Presenter:
Katie Ellis
Managing Director
Community Outreach Group
OBJECTIVEOBJECTIVE
In today’s session, you’ll learn how to choose which voters to contact during GOTV (Get Out the Vote), recruit and allocate volunteer efforts, and get your logistics in order.
AGENDAAGENDA
IntroductionReview of GOTV StrategyBuilding UniversesPlanning Volunteer CapacityGOTV Logistics CalculationsMaking AdjustmentsWrap Up
• Strategic Use of Limited Resources
• Setting Strategic Goals & Maintaining Accountability
• Demonstrating Success & Power
WHY DO WE NEED DATA?
• Strategic Use of Limited Resources
• Setting Strategic Goals & Maintaining Accountability
• Demonstrating Success & Power
WHY DO WE NEED DATA?
Limited resources
TIMEPeople
Money
BUILDING OUR WIN
TURNOUT
HISTORY
PRESUMED SUPPORT
LOW UNKNOWN HIGH
HIGH x HIGH TURNOUT PERSUASION
HIGH TURNOUT BASE
SPORADIC xSPORADIC TURNOUT
PERSUASIONSPORADIC
TURNOUT BASE
LOW x x LOW TURNOUT BASE
NEW x x NEW BASE
TURNOUT
HISTORY
PRESUMED SUPPORT
LOW UNKNOWN HIGH
HIGH x HIGH TURNOUT PERSUASION
HIGH TURNOUT BASE
SPORADIC xSPORADIC TURNOUT
PERSUASIONSPORADIC
TURNOUT BASE
LOW x x LOW TURNOUT BASE
NEW x x NEW BASE
PERSUASION PROGRAM
TURNOUT
HISTORY
PRESUMED SUPPORT
LOW UNKNOWN HIGH
HIGH x HIGH TURNOUT PERSUASION
HIGH TURNOUT BASE
SPORADIC xSPORADIC TURNOUT
PERSUASIONSPORADIC
TURNOUT BASE
LOW x x LOW TURNOUT BASE
NEW x x NEW BASE
GET OUT THE VOTE PROGRAM
TURNOUT
HISTORY
PRESUMED SUPPORT
LOW UNKNOWN HIGH
HIGH x HIGH TURNOUT PERSUASION
HIGH TURNOUT BASE
SPORADIC xSPORADIC TURNOUT
PERSUASIONSPORADIC
TURNOUT BASE
LOW x x LOW TURNOUT BASE
NEW x x NEW BASE
GET OUT THE VOTE PROGRAM
• GOTV - Get Out The Vote refers to activities organizations and campaigns take in the run up to an election to maximize the number of supporters that turn out to vote.
• Universe - The set of voters you will attempt to turn out to vote on election day.
• Modeling Scores – A prediction (based on voter file, polling, and commercial data) as to how a voter will behave.
SOME BASIC TERMS
• BUILDING your universe
MODELING
PARTISANSHIP
DEMOGRAPHICS
ID/SUPPORT
VOTE HISTORY
MARRYING THE GRID WITH VAN
• Key Question:How do we match up our conceptual definitions of universes with actual lists of real people?
VAN VARIABLES
Voter StatusDemographicsModelsCensus Data (sometimes)GeographicContact historyCurrent and old lists
VOTE LIKELIHOOD
• What is the best predictor of an individual voting in an upcoming election:– In the 2012 General Election?
2008!– In the 2014 General Election?
2010!
– A special election? Uhhh…• Look for other non-regular or low turnout elections• Key factors are competitiveness and similar date
• Turnout Models
VOTE LIKELIHOOD IN 2012
Turnout LevelTurnout Definition
Vote History Score
High
Medium
Low
70 +
30 - 70
< 30
3/3 MidtermsOR
2004 + 2008 + 2010
2/2 PresidentialsOR
1-2/3 Midterms
All other vote histories
SUPPORT LEVELS
• How do you know who supports your issue or not?– Polling– Organizational Issue or Mission
• Supporter level assumptions are trickier than vote history—often many variables.
CHOICE SUPPORT LEVEL IN 2012
Choice Support Level Low Medium High
Group Definition Middle-age and older men Middle age women Young and older
women, young men
Defined in VAN?
All voters
SUBTRACT
Women
SUBTRACT
Age <35
Women
SUBTRACT
Age <35
SUBTRACT
Age 60+
All Voters age <35
ADD
Women age 60+
SUPPORT X TURNOUT = ?
TurnoutSupport
Low Medium High
High
Medium
Low
All Voters REMOVE Women REMOVE age <35 NARROW t/o 70+
Age <35, ADD Women 60+
NARROW Turnout 70+
Age <35, ADD Women 60+
NARROW Turnout 30-70
Age <35, ADD Women 60+
NARROW Turnout < 30
Women REMOVE age <35 REMOVE 60+ NARROW t/o 70+
Women REMOVE <35 REMOVE 60-120
NARROW t/o 30-70
Women REMOVE age <35 REMOVE 60+
NARROW t/o<30
All Voters REMOVE Women REMOVE age< 35 NARROW t/o 30-70
All Voters REMOVE Women REMOVE age <35 NARROW t/o <30
ADD REAL NUMBERS
TurnoutSupport
Low Medium High
High 98 340 248
Medium 782 486 116
Low 22 14 325
456
• How long is one canvass shift?• How many doors can one volunteer
knock per hour?• How many doors can one volunteer
knock per canvass shift?• Do volunteers go out alone or in
pairs?• How many shifts are required to
knock on 456 doors?
CALCULATING VOLUNTEERS
• How long is a phonebanking shift?• How many calls can a volunteer
make per hour?• How many calls can a volunteer
make per shift?• How many shifts are required to
make 456 calls?
CALCULATING VOLUNTEERS
• How many calling shifts are there in a day?
• How many phone lines do you need?• How many pizzas should you order?
EDAY PHONEBANK LOGISTICS
• 250,000 doors– How many shifts are required?
• 15 organizers– How many shifts per organizer?
• 10 days– How many shifts per organizer per day?
GOTV PROGRAM PLANNING
• 250,000 doors– How many pages?
• 30 pages/minute– How many hours?
• 1500 pages/toner cartridge– How many toner cartridges?
• $30/toner cartridge– How much money in toner?
PRINTING LOGISTICS
• When does all of your data need to be entered?
PRINTING LOGISTICS
• When does all of your data need to be entered?
PRINTING LOGISTICS
• If need 300 volunteers and can only find 100, what’s next?– Find the BEST voters within your targets• Constituency• Turnout likelihood• Party ID• Etc
ADJUSTING CAPACITY