GOTV DATA

Katie EllisCommunity Outreach Group

FOLLOWING THE LAWELECTIONS.NEWORGANIZING.COM

FOLLOWING THE LAW

WWW.AFJ.ORG

Presenter:Presenter:

Katie Ellis

Managing Director

Community Outreach Group

OBJECTIVEOBJECTIVE

In today’s session, you’ll learn how to choose which voters to contact during GOTV (Get Out the Vote), recruit and allocate volunteer efforts, and get your logistics in order.

AGENDAAGENDA

IntroductionReview of GOTV StrategyBuilding UniversesPlanning Volunteer CapacityGOTV Logistics CalculationsMaking AdjustmentsWrap Up

• Strategic Use of Limited Resources

• Setting Strategic Goals & Maintaining Accountability

• Demonstrating Success & Power

WHY DO WE NEED DATA?

• Strategic Use of Limited Resources

• Setting Strategic Goals & Maintaining Accountability

• Demonstrating Success & Power

WHY DO WE NEED DATA?

Limited resources

TIMEPeople

Money

BUILDING OUR WIN

TURNOUT

HISTORY

PRESUMED SUPPORT

LOW UNKNOWN HIGH

HIGH x HIGH TURNOUT PERSUASION

HIGH TURNOUT BASE

SPORADIC xSPORADIC TURNOUT

PERSUASIONSPORADIC

TURNOUT BASE

LOW x x LOW TURNOUT BASE

NEW x x NEW BASE

TURNOUT

HISTORY

PRESUMED SUPPORT

LOW UNKNOWN HIGH

HIGH x HIGH TURNOUT PERSUASION

HIGH TURNOUT BASE

SPORADIC xSPORADIC TURNOUT

PERSUASIONSPORADIC

TURNOUT BASE

LOW x x LOW TURNOUT BASE

NEW x x NEW BASE

PERSUASION PROGRAM

TURNOUT

HISTORY

PRESUMED SUPPORT

LOW UNKNOWN HIGH

HIGH x HIGH TURNOUT PERSUASION

HIGH TURNOUT BASE

SPORADIC xSPORADIC TURNOUT

PERSUASIONSPORADIC

TURNOUT BASE

LOW x x LOW TURNOUT BASE

NEW x x NEW BASE

GET OUT THE VOTE PROGRAM

TURNOUT

HISTORY

PRESUMED SUPPORT

LOW UNKNOWN HIGH

HIGH x HIGH TURNOUT PERSUASION

HIGH TURNOUT BASE

SPORADIC xSPORADIC TURNOUT

PERSUASIONSPORADIC

TURNOUT BASE

LOW x x LOW TURNOUT BASE

NEW x x NEW BASE

GET OUT THE VOTE PROGRAM

• GOTV - Get Out The Vote refers to activities organizations and campaigns take in the run up to an election to maximize the number of supporters that turn out to vote.

• Universe - The set of voters you will attempt to turn out to vote on election day.

• Modeling Scores – A prediction (based on voter file, polling, and commercial data) as to how a voter will behave.

SOME BASIC TERMS

• BUILDING your universe

MODELING

PARTISANSHIP

DEMOGRAPHICS

ID/SUPPORT

VOTE HISTORY

MARRYING THE GRID WITH VAN

• Key Question:How do we match up our conceptual definitions of universes with actual lists of real people?

VAN VARIABLES

Voter StatusDemographicsModelsCensus Data (sometimes)GeographicContact historyCurrent and old lists

VOTE LIKELIHOOD

• What is the best predictor of an individual voting in an upcoming election:– In the 2012 General Election?

2008!– In the 2014 General Election?

2010!

– A special election? Uhhh…• Look for other non-regular or low turnout elections• Key factors are competitiveness and similar date

• Turnout Models

VOTE LIKELIHOOD IN 2012

Turnout LevelTurnout Definition

Vote History Score

High

Medium

Low

70 +

30 - 70

< 30

3/3 MidtermsOR

2004 + 2008 + 2010

2/2 PresidentialsOR

1-2/3 Midterms

All other vote histories

SUPPORT LEVELS

• How do you know who supports your issue or not?– Polling– Organizational Issue or Mission

• Supporter level assumptions are trickier than vote history—often many variables.

CHOICE SUPPORT LEVEL IN 2012

Choice Support Level Low Medium High

Group Definition Middle-age and older men Middle age women Young and older

women, young men

Defined in VAN?

All voters

SUBTRACT

Women

SUBTRACT

Age <35

Women

SUBTRACT

Age <35

SUBTRACT

Age 60+

All Voters age <35

ADD

Women age 60+

SUPPORT X TURNOUT = ?

TurnoutSupport

Low Medium High

High

Medium

Low

All Voters REMOVE Women REMOVE age <35 NARROW t/o 70+

Age <35, ADD Women 60+

NARROW Turnout 70+

Age <35, ADD Women 60+

NARROW Turnout 30-70

Age <35, ADD Women 60+

NARROW Turnout < 30

Women REMOVE age <35 REMOVE 60+ NARROW t/o 70+

Women REMOVE <35 REMOVE 60-120

NARROW t/o 30-70

Women REMOVE age <35 REMOVE 60+

NARROW t/o<30

All Voters REMOVE Women REMOVE age< 35 NARROW t/o 30-70

All Voters REMOVE Women REMOVE age <35 NARROW t/o <30

ADD REAL NUMBERS

TurnoutSupport

Low Medium High

High 98 340 248

Medium 782 486 116

Low 22 14 325

456

• How long is one canvass shift?• How many doors can one volunteer

knock per hour?• How many doors can one volunteer

knock per canvass shift?• Do volunteers go out alone or in

pairs?• How many shifts are required to

knock on 456 doors?

CALCULATING VOLUNTEERS

• How long is a phonebanking shift?• How many calls can a volunteer

make per hour?• How many calls can a volunteer

make per shift?• How many shifts are required to

make 456 calls?

CALCULATING VOLUNTEERS

• How many calling shifts are there in a day?

• How many phone lines do you need?• How many pizzas should you order?

EDAY PHONEBANK LOGISTICS

• 250,000 doors– How many shifts are required?

• 15 organizers– How many shifts per organizer?

• 10 days– How many shifts per organizer per day?

GOTV PROGRAM PLANNING

• 250,000 doors– How many pages?

• 30 pages/minute– How many hours?

• 1500 pages/toner cartridge– How many toner cartridges?

• $30/toner cartridge– How much money in toner?

PRINTING LOGISTICS

• When does all of your data need to be entered?

PRINTING LOGISTICS

• When does all of your data need to be entered?

PRINTING LOGISTICS

• If need 300 volunteers and can only find 100, what’s next?– Find the BEST voters within your targets• Constituency• Turnout likelihood• Party ID• Etc

ADJUSTING CAPACITY