NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE | Greece: Macro Flash
NBG | Economic Analysis Department
Greece Macro Analysis Team
86 Eolou Str., 102 32 Athens, Greece
GREECE Macro Flash
GDP Q4:2017 N A T I O N A L B A N K O F G R E E C E
Greece’s recovery gains
momentum, buoyed by
increased business
activity
Nikos S. Magginas PhD Head of Greece Macro Analysis (+30210) 334 1516 e-mail: [email protected] Effrosyni Alevizopoulou PhD (+30210) 334 1620 e-mail: [email protected] Aikaterini Gouveli MSc (+30210) 334 2359 e-mail: [email protected] Eleni Balikou MSc (+30210) 334 1198
e-mail: [email protected]
GDP increased by 1.9% y-o-y in Q4:2017 and by 1.3% y-o-y in FY:2017, the strongest performance in 10 years, despite tighter-than-initially-expected fiscal conditions.
Gross fixed capital formation rebounded impressively in Q4:2017 (+28.9% y-o-y), contributing 3.3 pps to annual GDP growth in this quarter on the back of buoyant non-residential investment (+31.4% y-o-y, the strongest rise in 11 years), which increased its share in GDP to an 8-year high of 14.0%.
The net contribution of investment in GDP growth in Q4:2017 is still sizeable (1.7 pps), even after subtracting the impact from higher imports of capital goods (mainly transportation equipment) and other inputs related to investment. On an annual basis, investment, along with inventory accumulation, contributed 0.7 pps to FY:2017 growth (c. 50% of total output growth adjusted for their corresponding import content).
Increasing business profitability, higher levels of capacity utilization and an effective acceleration in public investment activity – mainly due to a shift of funding from 2017 – are expected to support average annual growth in total investment of 10.8% y-o-y in FY:2018.
On the other hand, consumer spending decelerated over the course of 2017, declining by 1.0% y-o-y in Q4:2017 and remained flat in FY:2017, for a second consecutive year, reflecting still significant fiscal pressure and a negative impact on disposable income from positive CPI inflation, which offset positive labor market trends.
According to NBG estimates, average GDP growth in FY:2018 is estimated in the vicinity of 2.0% y-o-y, of which 0.5 pps corresponds to a positive carry from FY:2017.
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GDP growth decomposition by expenditure component
Consumption Net Exports Investment
Inventories Other expenditure Growth
contributions in pps
Overview of latest macroeconomic trends in pages 5-13
NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE | Greece: Macro Flash
GREECE | NBG Macro Flash |March 2018| p. 2
Greece’s recovery is continuing, with
GDP increasing by 1.9% y-o-y in
Q4:2017
_______________________________________________
Greece’s gross fixed capital
formation rebounded impressively in
Q4:2017, bringing the share of non-
residential investment to GDP to an
8-year high of 14.0%
_______________________________________________
The acceleration in public
investment activity in Q4:2017 is
estimated to have added about 0.3
pps in GDP growth on an annualized
basis
_______________________________________________
Greece’s economy continues to gain momentum, buoyed by
increased business activity that compensates for subdued
private consumption
Greece’s recovery is continuing, with GDP increasing by 1.9% y-o-y
in Q4:2017. Output expanded for a fourth consecutive quarter
(+0.1% on a seasonally-adjusted quarterly basis). In FY:2017, GDP
increased by 1.3% y-o-y, the strongest performance in 10 years,
despite tighter-than-initially-expected fiscal conditions reflected in
the estimated fiscal tightening of 0.3% of GDP in FY:2017 (an
estimated improvement in the General government primary
surplus, adjusted for one-offs, from 2.3% of GDP in 2016 to 2.6% of
GDP in 2017). The analysis that follows indicates that a key growth
driver is business activity, combined with higher investment
spending, while consumer spending remains relatively weak.
Indeed, gross fixed capital formation rebounded impressively in
Q4:2017 (+28.9% y-o-y), contributing 3.3 pps to annual GDP growth
in this quarter, following a temporary slowing in Q2 and Q3:2017.
Importantly, non-residential investment was the main source of
investment (+31.4% y-o-y, the strongest rise in 11 years), bringing
the share of non-residential investment to GDP to an 8-year high of
14.0%. The net contribution of investment in Q4 GDP growth is still
sizeable (1.7 pps), even after subtracting the impact from higher
imports of capital goods and other inputs related to investment. On
an annual basis, investment, along with inventory accumulation,
contributed 0.7 pps to FY:2017 growth (c. 50% of total output
growth adjusted for their corresponding import content). Indeed, it
appears that spending on new transportation equipment has been
the dominant driver of investment growth in both Q4:2017 and
FY:2017. The acceleration in public investment activity in Q4:2017
is estimated to have added about 0.3 pps in GDP growth on an
annualized basis.
In this vein, it is encouraging that business activity showed further
signs of sustainable improvement in Q4:2017. Indeed, gross
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GDP growth: y-o-y and q-o-q
GDP (q-o-q, s.a., right axis)
GDP growth (y-o-y, s.a., left axis)
y-o-y q-o-q
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
Q2:
2000
Q3:
2001
Q4:
2002
Q1:
2004
Q2:
2005
Q3:
2006
Q4:
2007
Q1:
2009
Q2:
2010
Q3:
2011
Q4:
2012
Q1:
2014
Q2:
2015
Q3:
2016
Q4:
2017
y-o-y% GDP
Total investment excl. residential construction
Total investment excl. residential construction(%GDP, left axis)Total investment excl. residential construction(y-o-y, right axis)
0
2
4
6
8
10
10
12
14
16
18
20
Q2:
2010
Q4:
2010
Q2:
2011
Q4:
2011
Q2:
2012
Q4:
2012
Q2:
2013
Q4:
2013
Q2:
2014
Q4:
2014
Q2:
2015
Q4:
2015
Q2:
2016
Q4:
2016
Q2:
2017
Q4:
2017
% GDP
GFCF & PIP disbursements as % of quarterly GDP
PIP Disbursements (% GDP, right axis)
GFCF (% GDP, left axis)
% GDP
NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE | Greece: Macro Flash
GREECE | NBG Macro Flash |March 2018| p. 3
Spending on new transportation
equipment has been the dominant
driver of investment growth in both
Q4:2017 and FY:2017
_______________________________________________
Capacity utilization in the Greek
industry in H2:2017 exceeded its
long-term average and, in
conjunction with a new improvement
in business conditions in Q1:2018,
presages a further increase in
investment in 2018
_______________________________________________
Business activity showed further
signs of sustainable improvement in
Q4:2017
_______________________________________________
operating surplus and mixed income created by the corporate
sector – a good proxy for their profitability and thus, of their
willingness and capacity to invest – increased by 2.0% y-o-y in
Q4:2017 and by 1.6% y-o-y, on average, in FY:2017, recording the
first annual expansion since 2008. Moreover, the level of capacity
utilization has increased to levels which in Q4:2017 exceeded the
long-term average in specific, more competitive, industrial
subsectors, while residential construction is also expected to
bottom, as indicated by an average increase in residential building
permits issuance (17.7% y-o-y in 11M:2017). Finally, public
investment spending is also expected to increase by 26.9% y-o-y in
FY:2018 on a cash basis (mainly due to a shift of EU funding and
related payments from 2017). In line with these positive trends,
total gross fixed capital formation is expected to grow by a healthy
10.8% y-o-y in 2018, according to NBG estimates.
On the other hand, consumer spending remains weak, decelerating
over the course of 2017, declining by 1.0% y-o-y in Q4:2017 and by
-0.4% s.a. q-o-q -- following declines of -0.5% q-o-q and -0.2%
q-o-q, respectively, in Q3 and Q2:2017. In FY:2017, private
consumption remained flat, for a second consecutive year,
reflecting still significant fiscal pressure (personal taxes and social
security contributions increased by an estimated 0.2% of GDP in
FY:2017 compared with 2016). Moreover, the return of consumer
price inflation to positive territory (1.1% y-o-y in 2017), following 4
years of deflation, took an additional toll on household disposable
income. This offset the supportive impact of higher employment
(2.2% y-o-y on average in 11M:2017). This trend suggests that the
financial position of Greek households is still fragile. Sluggish private
consumption is expected to continue in 2018, in view of the
continuing fiscal effort needed to achieve the 3.5% primary surplus
target, combined with subdued wage trends in the face of still high
unemployment. In fact, the effective increase in fiscal pressure is
relatively higher for medium-income earners, who typically play a
central role in the consumption recovery process.
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20
30
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10
20
30
Q2:
2013
Q4:
2013
Q2:
2014
Q4:
2014
Q2:
2015
Q4:
2015
Q2:
2016
Q4:
2016
Q2:
2017
Q4:
2017
contribution in pps
Contribution in annual change in GFCF by investment component
Other investment (in pps)Transport equipment (in pps)Machinery & technology equipment (in pps)Residential construction (in pps)Non-residential construction (in pps)GFCF (y-o-y)
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
72
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1
6
11
May
-13
Aug
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Nov
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Feb-
14M
ay-1
4A
ug-1
4N
ov-1
4Fe
b-15
May
-15
Aug
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Nov
-15
Feb-
16M
ay-1
6A
ug-1
6N
ov-1
6Fe
b-17
May
-17
Aug
-17
Nov
-17
Feb-
18
PMI & Capacity utilization
PMI, deviat. from 50 (left axis)
Capacity utilization (right axis)
Index%
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Q2
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Q3
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17
y-o-y
Gross value added by sector of economic activity
Industrial (left axis)Construction (left axis)Household services (left axis)Accommodation, trade, transportation (left axis)Other sectors (left axis)Total value added (y-o-y, right axis)
contributionsin pps
NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE | Greece: Macro Flash
GREECE | NBG Macro Flash |March 2018| p. 4
Increasing business profitability will
support investment decisions in 2018
_______________________________________________
A further strengthening in economic
sentiment and sustainable
employment growth point to an
acceleration in GDP growth in 2018
_______________________________________________
Net exports subtracted 0.4 pps from GDP growth in FY:2017 (and
0.0 pps in Q4:2017), despite the solid performance of the tourism
sector and healthy growth in goods exports, as the annual growth
in imports of goods and services outpaced that of exports (7.5%
y-o-y and 6.9% y-o-y, respectively, in constant price terms).
NBG Economic Analysis’ “high frequency indicator” of economic
activity, incorporating the latest information from monthly
macroeconomic data releases for early 2018, points to an
acceleration in GDP growth to c. 2.0% y-o-y in Q1:2018. This
projection mainly reflects the increase in economic sentiment and
manufacturing PMI indices, to 3½ and 17½ year highs, respectively,
in February 2018. In addition, favorable prospects for tourism
activity, reflected by a double-digit increase in early bookings for
2018, along with favorable growth trends in the euro area, are
expected to offset the drag on growth from the additional fiscal
effort and higher import spending that typically accompanies the
recovery process. Employment growth should continue at the
current pace of c. 2.0% y-o-y, reducing unemployment to below
20%, on average, in 2018. The above factors are estimated to bring
GDP growth in FY:2018 in the vicinity of 2.0 % y-o-y, of which 0.5
pps corresponds to a positive carry from FY:2017.
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:Q3
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:Q4
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:Q2
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:Q4
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y-o-y y-o-y
GFCF & gross operating surplus
Gross fixed capital formation (2q m.a., right axis)
Gross oper. surplus & mix. income (2q m.a.,left axis)
62
72
82
92
102
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2018
:2Μ
y-o-y
Employment, GDP growth & economic sentiment
Employment growth, y-o-y (left axis)*
GDP growth, y-o-y (left axis)
EC Economic sentiment indicator (right axis)
Index
*Q4:2017: October-November 2017 data
NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE | Greece: Macro Flash
GREECE | NBG Macro Flash |March 2018| p. 5
GREECE
Macro View - Economic Outlook | March 2018
Greece’s recovery on track, supported by investment activity, policy
credibility improves and financial markets assign an increasing
probability of a successful completion of the 3rd economic adjustment
programme
NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE | Greece: Macro Flash
GREECE | NBG Macro Flash |March 2018| p. 6
Greece: Tracking the economy’s cyclical position
Au
g-15
Sep
-15
Oct-15
No
v-15
Dec-15
Jan
-16
Feb
-16
Mar-16
Ap
r-16
May-16
Ju
n-16
Ju
l-16
Au
g-16
Sep
-16
Oct-16
No
v-16
Dec-16
Jan
-17
Feb
-17
Mar-17
Ap
r-17
May-17
Ju
n-17
Ju
l-17
Au
g-17
Sep
-17
Oct-17
No
v-17
Dec-17
Jan
-18
Feb
-18
PMI (index level) 39,1 43,3 47,3 48,1 50,2 50,0 48,4 49,0 49,7 48,4 50,4 48,7 50,4 49,2 48,6 48,3 49,3 46,6 47,7 46,7 48,2 49,6 50,5 50,5 52,2 52,8 52,1 52,2 53,1 55,2 56,1
Industrial confidence (index level) -30,2 -23,3 -19,6 -16,6 -13,6 -10,1 -10,2 -7,8 -7,8 -11,6 -9,1 -7,3 -5,1 -6,2 -4,7 -7,8 -5,7 -5,0 -5,1 -6,7 -5,6 -10,4 -7,3 -2,7 -3,7 -0,7 -4,7 -3,9 0,2 1,2 4,2
Manufacturing production (yoy) 3,7 2,7 -1,0 2,2 5,3 5,0 1,1 -1,7 7,2 7,2 8,9 10,8 3,2 1,9 7,3 1,3 -1,8 0,9 6,4 10,2 -0,3 5,3 3,0 1,8 2,9 2,3 -0,1 1,8 6,3
Industrial production (yoy) 4,2 3,0 -1,7 2,6 6,9 4,1 -2,9 -3,6 3,7 3,5 8,1 5,5 0,5 -0,2 6,9 2,1 2,5 7,1 11,0 10,1 0,8 6,3 1,8 2,1 5,5 3,2 0,7 2,0 0,2
Services confidence (index level) -42,8 -15,1 -14,3 -15,4 -16,6 -5,3 -23,1 -17,3 -13,0 -11,4 -17,5 -8,3 -4,0 -6,9 1,3 3,5 -3,1 -3,2 1,9 6,6 8,9 11,5 9,0 17,4 22,9 15,3 14,4 13,6 13,4 8,9 18,9
Consumer confidence (index level) -64,8 -64,2 -59,6 -64,1 -61,1 -63,9 -66,8 -71,9 -73,7 -71,9 -68,0 -69,2 -70,1 -65,9 -63,6 -66,9 -64,4 -67,8 -73,3 -74,4 -72,2 -69,7 -68,8 -61,5 -57,0 -53,7 -54,0 -53,8 -50,3 -51,0 -53,0
Retail confidence (index level) -31,0 -20,0 -15,3 -12,8 -5,3 -3,4 3,2 3,0 5,6 5,1 4,7 8,2 9,3 15,0 10,7 10,9 9,8 12,9 1,9 2,7 3,0 1,5 -3,4 -1,3 -3,6 0,0 2,0 2,3 -0,4 1,8 2,8
Retail trade volume (yoy) -2,1 -3,3 -2,4 -4,4 0,2 -1,7 -6,8 -1,2 -2,0 -6,3 -3,6 9,5 -2,1 2,4 2,6 4,0 -1,0 -0,1 9,9 -1,2 2,1 0,3 3,7 2,5 0,8 -0,8 -1,0 -2,6 1,8
Construction Permits (yoy) -28,5 -13,1 -38,2 -4,5 67,3 -5,2 8,3 -34,7 -27,3 -39,8 -26,1 38,3 64,4 18,7 5,7 9,4 -25,9 -14,1 -0,1 71,0 22,1 52,7 25,1 10,0 9,5 -4,1 96,7 24,4
House prices (yoy, quarterly series) -6,0 -6,0 -5,1 -5,1 -5,1 -4,4 -4,4 -4,4 -2,5 -2,5 -2,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,5 -1,0 -1,0 -1,0 -1,9 -1,9 -1,9 -1,2 -1,2 -1,2 -0,6 -0,6 -0,6 -0,3 -0,3 -0,3
Construction confidence (index level) -67,5 -52,8 -49,4 -47,0 -49,1 -37,9 -37,5 -35,9 -45,9 -39,0 -39,8 -55,6 -52,5 -59,5 -67,1 -53,8 -44,0 -45,3 -59,7 -49,8 -53,5 -67,4 -55,6 -39,7 -49,2 -36,9 -44,7 -59,3 -58,3 -50,4 -45,1
Employment (y-o-y) 2,3 2,2 2,7 2,7 3,1 2,7 3,1 3,3 3,0 2,2 2,1 2,3 1,8 1,8 1,0 0,8 0,0 0,6 1,7 2,0 2,1 2,6 2,4 2,0 2,7 2,4 2,6 2,6
Interest rate on new private sector loans (CPI deflated) 6,3 6,5 6,0 5,7 5,3 5,7 5,4 6,2 6,1 5,7 5,6 6,1 5,9 5,7 5,5 5,7 4,8 3,7 3,2 2,7 3,1 3,6 3,5 3,7 3,9 3,7 4,1 3,6 4,3 5,2
Credit to private sector (y-o-y) -3,7 -3,6 -3,6 -3,7 -3,6 -5,0 -4,8 -5,1 -4,6 -3,2 -3,1 -2,6 -2,7 -2,7 -2,8 -2,5 -4,5 -4,7 -4,5 -4,7 -4,4 -4,7 -5,6 -6,1 -6,4 -6,3 -6,4 -7,3 -5,7 -5,8
Deposits of domestic private sector (y-o-y) -27,0 -26,6 -26,9 -27,1 -23,5 -17,5 -13,4 -12,0 -9,0 -6,1 0,5 1,7 2,4 1,6 3,0 3,4 3,4 3,1 2,9 3,1 3,1 3,4 3,4 4,3 4,3 4,6 4,6 4,8 4,7 4,9
Interest rate on new time deposits (households, CPI deflated) 2,7 2,9 2,0 1,7 1,2 1,7 1,4 2,4 2,1 1,7 1,6 1,9 1,8 1,8 1,2 1,6 0,7 -0,5 -0,6 -1,1 -1,0 -0,5 -0,4 -0,4 -0,3 -0,4 -0,1 -0,5 0,0 0,8
Economic sentiment index (EU Commision, Euro area) 104 105 106 105 106 105 103 102 103 104 104 104 103 104 106 106 107 108 108 108 109 109 111 111 111 113 114 114 115 115 114
Exports (other (excl.oil&shipping) y-o-y 6m mov.avg 7,8 5,0 2,2 1,3 -0,6 -1,9 -1,0 -0,6 -0,1 -0,3 -2,0 -1,4 -1,2 0,5 0,9 4,1 5,2 6,5 5,8 6,4 6,1 7,5 10,0 9,6 11,3 9,4 11,8 9,6 9,0
Imports (other (excl.oil&shipping) y-o-y 6m mov.avg -0,9 -5,2 -6,5 -8,1 -10,0 -6,7 -4,1 -2,8 -1,9 -1,5 -0,9 4,1 6,8 8,8 7,9 8,8 10,0 7,6 3,8 4,4 4,6 6,3 6,4 6,1 7,6 6,3 9,2 9,0 9,3
NBG Composite Index of cyclical conditions ► ► ► ► -49,0 -29,0 -27,0 -31,0 -24,7 -24,9 -25,2 -23,5 -22,6 -22,0 -21,7 -20,3 -18,6 -19,8 -19,6 -21,3 -22,8 -19,3 -21,0 -17,3 -13,2 -10,3 -6,7 -5,0 -1,4 2,5 2,7 2,9 3,2 3,3
Color map scale 1 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 27
Rapid contraction Moderate contraction Slow contraction Stabilization Slow expansion Moderate expansion Rapid expansion
Sources: NBG, BoG, ELSTAT, EU Commission, IOBE
2015 2016 2017 2018f
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1f Q2f Q3f Q4f
GDP (rea l , % y-o-y, s .a .) -0,3 -0,3 1,3 2,0 -0,4 -0,9 1,2 -0,9 0,4 1,5 1,4 1,9 1,9 2,0 2,2 1,8GDP (real , % q-o-q, s .a . ) … … … … -0,6 -0,4 0,5 -0,4 0,6 0,7 0,4 0,1 0,6 0,9 0,6 -0,3
Domestic Demand (y-o-y) -1,0 0,7 1,6 2,0 -0,6 1,7 2,5 -0,6 2,4 0,3 2,1 1,9 1,5 2,4 2,8 1,4Final Consumption (y-o-y) -0,2 -0,4 -0,1 0,7 -1,3 -1,8 2,2 -0,5 0,4 0,4 -0,9 -0,3 0,1 0,3 0,8 1,5 Private Consumption (y-o-y) -0,5 0,1 0,1 0,7 -1,4 -2,1 3,7 0,3 0,9 0,8 -0,2 -1,0 -0,1 0,3 0,9 1,6
Fixed Capital Formation (y-o-y) -0,3 1,5 9,7 10,8 -9,9 13,3 14,7 -9,0 16,5 1,8 -6,5 28,9 12,3 16,2 18,5 -0,9 Residential construction -25,7 -12,4 -8,7 1,8 -16,1 -23,4 -2,9 -3,1 -10,8 -5,1 -7,4 -11,6 … … … …
Total GFCF excluding residential 2,3 2,5 10,8 10,9 -9,4 16,7 15,8 -9,4 18,4 2,2 -6,4 31,4 … … … …
Inventories* (contribution to GDP) -0,9 0,9 0,7 0,1 1,7 2,0 -1,1 1,0 0,3 -0,3 3,7 -1,1 0,0 0,3 0,0 0,2
Net exports (contribution to GDP) 0,7 -1,0 -0,4 -0,1 0,3 -2,7 -1,3 -0,2 -2,0 1,2 -0,7 0,0 0,3 -0,5 -0,6 0,3 Exports (y-o-y) 2,9 -1,9 6,9 6,3 -9,5 -10,3 9,2 4,9 5,2 9,7 7,6 5,3 7,2 6,5 5,5 6,2 Imports (y-o-y) 0,4 1,2 7,5 6,1 -9,5 -1,9 14,0 5,2 11,1 4,8 9,5 4,9 5,5 7,3 7,0 4,7
*also including other statistical discrepancies / Source: ELSTAT, NBG estimatesSource: EL.STAT. and NBG Research Estimates
2016 2017 2018f
Greece: Growth Outlook
NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE | Greece: Macro Flash
GREECE | NBG Macro Flash |March 2018| p. 7
External imbalances have been corrected, fixed capital
formation has picked up in 2017, and private consumption recorded a small decline as a percentage of GDP. A recovery
in business investment is estimated to be the key determinant of the economic performance in 2018-2020
Economic sentiment increased to a 3½-year high, with all major sectoral components of activity showing a
coordinated expansion, which adds to the evidence that the recovery process is gaining pace in early 2018
Industrial confidence increased to its highest level since Q4:2007 and services confidence returned to near its
Q3:2017 high, on the back of favorable tourism prospects and improving demand conditions in domestic services. Consumer sentiment has picked up since Q4:2017, but continues to reflect a still vulnerable position of Greek
households in early 2018
PMI reached a 17½ year high of 56.1 in February 2018, recording the strongest improvement since June 2000,
supported by a broad-based improvement in new orders in both domestic and foreign markets. This significant
improvement indicates that business activity remains on a steadily upward trend, and is likely to gain further traction in the following months, supported by favorable demand
conditions in the euro area
67,065,265,8
68,270,1
69,468,968,4
68,768,7
68,668,8
68,067,2
30
40
50
60
70
80
10
20
30
40
50
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8f
Private consumption (right axis)Investment (left axis)Exports (left axis)Imports (left axis)Public consumption (left axis)
% GDP
Greek GDP spending side decomposition (constant 2010 prices)
% GDP
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
-15
-12
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
200
5:Q
3
200
6:Q
4
200
8:Q
1
200
9:Q
2
201
0:Q
3
201
1:Q
4
201
3:Q
1
201
4:Q
2
201
5:Q
3
201
6:Q
4
201
8:Q
1
Economic sentiment and real GDP growth
GDP growth (left axis)
EC Economic sentiment indicator (right axis)
y-o-y index
Sources: EL.STAT., EU Commission
-90
-75
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
-90
-75
-60
-45
-30
-15
0
15
30
45
Jun
-13
Oct
-13
Feb
-14
Jun
-14
Oct
-14
Feb
-15
Jun
-15
Oct
-15
Feb
-16
Jun
-16
Oct
-16
Feb
-17
Jun
-17
Oct
-17
Feb
-18
Greece: main sectoral confidence indicators (ESI components)
Industrial Consumer
Retail Construction
Services
EC sectoral confidence indicators,index level
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Dec
-02
Feb
-04
Apr
-05
Jun
-06
Aug
-07
Oct
-08
Dec
-09
Feb
-11
Apr
-12
Jun
-13
Aug
-14
Oct
-15
Dec
-16
Feb
-18
PMI & Industrial Confidence
PMI, deviat. from 50 (left axis)
Industrial confidence, Index level (right axis)
Index Index
Greece’s GDP increased by 1.3% y-o-y in 2017, the strongest pace in 10 years, buoyed by higher investment spending
and inventory accumulation, which added 1.1 pps and 0.7 pps, respectively, to annual production growth. In Q4:2017,
GDP growth accelerated to 1.9% y-o-y, with investment contributing 3.3 pps, offsetting the drag from lower private
consumption (-0.7 pps or -1.0% y-o-y)
GDP figures from the production side point to a sustainable rebound in business activity, which brought annual value added growth to a 10-year high of 1.3% y-o-y in FY:2017
(from -1.2% y-o-y in FY:2016), on the back of strong expansion in the manufacturing, accommodation,
transportation, retail trade and household services sectors
-5
-3
-1
1
3
5
20
14
:Q3
20
14
:Q4
20
15
:Q1
20
15
:Q2
20
15
:Q3
20
15
:Q4
201
6:Q
1
201
6:Q
2
20
16
:Q3
20
16
:Q4
20
17
:Q1
20
17
:Q2
20
17
:Q3
20
17
:Q4
Composition of output growth by expenditure component
Consumption Net Exports
Investment Inventories*
Growth
contributionsin pps
*including other statistical discrepancies
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
Q1
:20
15
Q2
:20
15
Q3:
20
15
Q4
:20
15
Q1
:20
16
Q2
:20
16
Q3:
20
16
Q4
:20
16
Q1
:20
17
Q2
:20
17
Q3
:20
17
Q4
:20
17
y-o-y
Gross value added by sector of economic activity
Industrial (left axis)Construction (left axis)Household services (left axis)Accommodation, trade, transportation (left axis)Other sectors (left axis)Total value added (y-o-y, right axis)
contributionsin pps
NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE | Greece: Macro Flash
GREECE | NBG Macro Flash |March 2018| p. 8
Country risk is on a downward trend, benefitting from financial asset valuations and liquidity conditions. This
improvement is expected to support investment decisions, offsetting the continuing pressure from the fiscal side.
However, the economy remains very sensitive to external shocks, such as the increase in financial market volatility
since early-February 2018. Significant progress in cost containment, intensive business restructuring and
consolidation have increased the competiveness of a growing number of larger firms
Manufacturing production increased by 3.3% in FY:2017 for a fourth consecutive year, with activity in the sub-sectors of
basic metals, pharmaceuticals, oil and food products recording the strongest increases of 24.6%, 14.9%, 5.0% and
1.8%, y-o-y, respectively, in the same period. This performance largely reflects increasing export activity, as suggested by external trade statistics and survey data for
manufacturing export orders, which strengthened further in late-2017 and in the first months of 2018
Private construction activity shows signs of bottoming out, despite still weak sentiment. In this regard, private building permits issuance accelerated (23.6% y-o-y, in volume terms, in 11M:2017 and 5.7% y-o-y in Q3:2017, with the residential sub-component recording an increase of 17.7% y-o-y in 11M:2017), presaging the first positive contribution of construction in GDP in 2018, for the first time in ten years
Pressures on house prices eased further in Q4:2017 (-0.3% y-o-y and -1.0% y-o-y in FY:2017), office prices declined by 0.7% y-o-y in H1:2017 (latest available data), and retail space prices showed a small increase (+0.7% y-o-y). However, a slow improvement in households’ financial positions, the still high supply overhang,
along with uncertainty related to the market impact of e-auctions and forthcoming adjustment in imputed real estate prices for tax
purposes, continue to weigh on the recovery process
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Aug
-15
Oct
-15
Dec
-15
Feb-
16A
pr-1
6Ju
n-16
Aug
-16
Oct
-16
Dec
-16
Feb-
17A
pr-1
7Ju
n-17
Aug
-17
Oct
-17
Dec
-17
Feb-
18
FTSE/ATHEX Large Cap (left axis)
10yr Greek Government bond yield (right axis)
Greek non-financial corp. bond yield based onthe BoG Composite Index (right axis)
%ECB's CSPP
Index
Non-financial corporate, Greek Gov. bond yields & FTSE Large Cap
-3
0
3
6
9
12
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Sep-
16O
ct-1
6N
ov-1
6D
ec-1
6Ja
n-17
Feb-
17M
ar-1
7A
pr-1
7M
ay-1
7Ju
n-17
Jul-1
7A
ug-1
7Se
p-17
Oct
-17
Nov
-17
Dec
-17
Key sectoral contributions in industrial production growth
Fabricated metals (in pps, left axis)Oil products (in pps, left axis)Non-metallic minerals (in pps, left axis)Food (in pps, left axis)Pharmaceuticals (in pps, left axis)Basic metals (in pps, left axis)Chemicals (in pps, left axis)Manufacturing production (y-o-y, right axis)
in pps y-o-y
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Q2:
2007
Q1:
2008
Q4:
2008
Q3:
2009
Q2:
2010
Q1:
2011
Q4:
2011
Q3:
2012
Q2:
2013
Q1:
2014
Q4:
2014
Q3:
2015
Q2:
2016
Q1:
2017
Q4:
2017
indexy-o-y
Non-residential construction (y-o-y, left axis)
Cement production (y-o-y, left axis)
Construction confidence (index, right axis)
Cement production, non-residential construction & construction confidence
*Q3:2017 estimate for cement production
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
H1:
2010
H2:
2010
H1:
2011
H2:
2011
H1:
2012
H2:
2012
H1:
2013
H2:
2013
H1:
2014
H2:
2014
H1:
2015
H2:
2015
H1:
2016
H2:
2016
H1:
2017
H2:
2017
Residential & commercial real estate prices
House prices (total, y-o-y)
Office prices (Athens, y-o-y)
Retail prices (Athens, y-o-y)
y-o-y
In the second half of 2017, capacity utilization in manufacturing exceeded its 15-year average, with the
indicators of activity in the services sector remaining on a steadily upward trend, supported by favorable tourism
prospects, boding well for an expansion in business investment in 2018
New capital formation will also be supported by a pick-up in public investment activity, following a weaker-than-
expected contribution in FY:2017, when PIP payments were 0.5% of GDP lower than the respective Budget 2018 target,
mainly due to the delayed disbursement of EU funding. Accelerating inflows of FDI recorded during 2017 are
expected to remain supportive of domestic investment spending during 2018
55
60
65
70
75
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
Q2:
2010
Q1:
2011
Q4:
2011
Q3:
2012
Q2:
2013
Q1:
2014
Q4:
2014
Q3:
2015
Q2:
2016
Q1:
2017
Q4:
2017
%index
Services confidence and capacity utilization
Services confidence (left axis)
Capacity utilization (right axis)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Aug
-14
Dec
-14
Apr
-15
Aug
-15
Dec
-15
Apr
-16
Aug
-16
Dec
-16
Apr
-17
Aug
-17
Dec
-17
mn eur
Inflows of foreign direct investment
+ €3.6 bn in FY:2017
Foreign direct investment liabilities
NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE | Greece: Macro Flash
GREECE | NBG Macro Flash |March 2018| p. 9
The current account balance recorded a deficit of 0.8% of GDP in FY:2017, slightly less than FY:2016 (-1.1% of GDP). The significant
expansion of the surplus in the services balance (1.0% of GDP higher than in FY:2016), which was supported by the increase in tourism revenue (0.6% of GDP higher than in FY:2016) and in the
transportation surplus (0.4% of GDP higher than in FY:2016) offset a larger deficit in the non-oil trade balance (0.3% of GDP
higher than in FY:2016) and in the oil balance (0.5% of GDP higher than in FY:2016)
The improvement in the Greek labor market continues unabated, gathering pace in July-November 2017 (increase in employment of 2.5% y-o-y during this period from 1.9%
y-o-y in H1:2017) and the unemployment rate declined further to 20.9% in July-November 2017 – its lowest level
since 2011. A stabilization in wages and a pick-up in working hours provide some nascent signs of
improvement in job quality
Inflation returned to negative territory in January 2018 (-0.2% y-o-y) – following an increase of 1.1% y-o-y in 2017 – mainly due to a stabilization in oil prices and a subdued increase in
core inflation (0.3% y-o-y in January 2018) that reflects sustainable cost containment by Greek firms, along with the deflationary impact of the euro appreciation on import costs
Following a cumulative increase of €5.9bn in 2017 – with household deposits increasing by €3.7bn and corporate
deposits by €2.2bn – private sector deposits decreased by €1.5bn in January 2018, reflecting an expected partial
reversal of a seasonal boost to household deposits from payments related to social transfers by the Greek State
(namely the social dividend and refund of the higher-than-justified healthcare contributions on pensions)
Current Account -1,1 -0,8 -1,2
Non-oil Trade Balance -7,9 -8,2 -8,7
Non-oil Exports 10,5 11,3 11,7
Non-oil Imports 18,4 19,5 20,4
Oil Balance -1,6 -2,1 -2,4
Services Balance 8,8 9,8 10,2
Primary Income Balance 0,0 0,1 0,1
Secondary Income Balance -0,3 -0,3 -0,3
Capital account 0,6 0,5 0,5
Source: Bank of Greece & NBG estimates
2016 2018f2017
Balance of Payments (as % GDP)
0
5
10
15
20
25
-10
-5
0
5
10
Jun
-11
Jan
-12
Au
g-1
2
Mar
-13
Oct
-13
May
-14
Dec
-14
Jul-
15
Feb
-16
Sep
-16
Ap
r-17
No
v-17
Employment growth Unemployment rate
Employment growth (left axis)
Unemployment rate (right axis)
%y-o-y
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Sep-
13
Jan-
14
May
-14
Sep-
14
Jan-
15
May
-15
Sep-
15
Jan-
16
May
-16
Sep-
16
Jan-
17
May
-17
Sep-
17
Jan-
18
pps
Headline & core inflation
Contribution of fuel in CPI (in pps, left axis)
CPI inflation (y-o-y change, right axis)
Core inflation (y-o-y change, right axis)
y-o-y
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Oct
-16
Nov
-16
Dec
-16
Jan-
17Fe
b-17
Mar
-17
Apr
-17
May
-17
Jun-
17Ju
l-17
Aug-
17Se
p-17
Oct
-17
Nov
-17
Dec
-17
Jan-
18
Χιλι
άδες
Private sector deposits
Non-financial & insurance corporations
Households
Private sector
monthly flows in billions
The tourism sector overperformed optimistic estimates, with revenue increasing by +11.1% y-o-y in FY:2017 (0.8% of GDP
or €1.4bn higher than in 2016), exceeding arrivals growth (+9.7% y-o-y in 2017) for the first time since 2013, while available data for early bookings for 2018 show that the favorable momentum is maintained, with demand from
major markets showing a double digit increase
Non-oil exports and imports (nominal terms, balance of payments data) increased by 9.6% y-o-y and 8.1% y-o-y,
respectively, in FY:2017, reconfirming the high elasticity of import demand to GDP trends and a high import content of Greece’s goods exports and industrial supplies, along with a
resilient export recovery
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
Dec
-13
Ap
r-14
Au
g-14
Dec
-14
Ap
r-15
Au
g-15
Dec
-15
Ap
r-16
Au
g-16
Dec
-16
Ap
r-17
Au
g-17
Dec
-17
Travel receipts
Travel receipts, change in level (in mn, left axis)
Travel receipts (y-o-y change, right axis)
millions
y-o-y
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Dec
-13
Mar
-14
Jun
-14
Sep
-14
Dec
-14
Mar
-15
Jun
-15
Sep
-15
Dec
-15
Mar
-16
Jun
-16
Sep
-16
Dec
-16
Mar
-17
Jun
-17
Sep
-17
Dec
-17
Goods trade (excluding oil and ships)
Exports (y-o-y, 12m m.a.)
Imports (y-o-y, 12m m.a.)
y-o-y
NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE | Greece: Macro Flash
GREECE | NBG Macro Flash |March 2018| p. 10
In January 2018, the annual pace of decline in credit to the private sector remained the same as in December 2017 (-0.8%
y-o-y), however, significantly slower compared with -1.3% y-o-y in June 2017 and -1.5% y-o-y in December 2016, on the
back of an increase in corporate lending (0.6% y-o-y in January 2018 vs. 0.4% y-o-y in December 2017), while credit to households continues to contract (-2.3% y-o-y in January
2018)
The Greek banking system’s financing from the Eurosystem decreased further to €33.7bn in December 2017, from €66.6bn
in December 2016, with ELA declining by €22.1bn since December 2016 (-€65.2bn since June 2015) to €21.6bn, partly reflecting improving market access, and a pick-up in deposits
The official sector (including SMP/ANFA holdings) holds about 80% of Greek debt or €246bn in February 2018. A pre-emptive
build-up of a cash buffer of, at least, €12bn before the 3rd programme completion in August 2018 appears attainable, following the issuance of a 7-year benchmark bond, of €3bn
on 8 February 2018 and the continuing fiscal overperformance that led to a cash surplus in the primary
budget of General Government of €5.9bn in FY:2017. Moreover, Greece is expected to receive €1.9bn for this purpose, following the successful completion of the 3rd
review of the programme, while a further €8.3bn is expected to be made available upon the completion of the last review
in April-August 2018
The General Government debt-to-GDP ratio is estimated to peak at 181.1% at end-2017 and follow a downward trend
from 2018 onwards, declining to 165% by 2020, to 113.5% by 2040 and to 96.4% of GDP in 2060, according to the baseline
scenario A of the latest DSA analysis by the ESM. Gross financing needs are projected to reach levels slightly above the sustainability thresholds of 15% and 20% of GDP, respectively, in the medium and longer term. The Eurogroup meeting of 22
January 2018 confirmed the beginning of technical work on the creation of a contingent growth-adjustment mechanism,
which will relate to the provision of future debt relief on Greece’s future economic performance, and could be put in
place following the successful completion of the 3rd programme
The successful implementation by the ESM of the “short-term” package of measures to reduce Greece’s public debt servicing costs
contributed to a further smoothening of the long-term debt redemption profile and a sustainable lowering of interest costs. The prospective benefit from the full implementation of the above short-term debt relief measures on Greece’s gross public debt is
estimated at 25 pps of GDP by 2060. In this context, the implementation of the short-term measures also contributed to an increase in the share of Greek debt at a fixed rate of 48.1% of total debt in December 2017 from 30% in December 2016
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
Jan-
13M
ay-1
3Se
p-13
Jan-
14M
ay-1
4Se
p-14
Jan-
15M
ay-1
5Se
p-15
Jan-
16M
ay-1
6Se
p-16
Jan-
17M
ay-1
7Se
p-17
Jan-
18
Bank credit to private sector
Total private sector
Non-financial corporations
Households
y-o-y
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Jun-
11
Dec
-11
Jun-
12
Dec
-12
Jun-
13
Dec
-13
Jun-
14
Dec
-14
Jun-
15
Dec
-15
Jun-
16
Dec
-16
Jun-
17
Dec
-17
Greek banks' borrowing from the Eurosystem
ELA (left axis)
ECB (left axis)
Eurosystem funding (% of total assets, right axis)
capital controls
bn% of total assets
T-bills: 4,7%ANFA&SMP:
4,1%
Other bonds: 12,8%
Other loans: 4,6%
GLF:16,7%
IMF: 3,5% EFSF:
41,4%
ESM: 12,1%
Structure of Greek debt holders as of February 2018
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
320
360
400
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2030
2040
2050
2060
% GDP% GDP
Greece: Sovereign debt & financing needs
Debt-to-GDP ratio - Scenario A (left axis)
Debt-to-GDP ratio - Scenario B (left axis)
GFN-to-GDP ratio - Scenario A (right axis)
GFN-to-GDP ratio - Scenario B (right axis)
Source: ESM, DSA Analysis, January 2018
0
5
10
15
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
2035
2036
2037
2038
2039
2040
2041
2042
2043
2044
2045
2046
2047
2048
2049
2050
2051
2052
2053
2054
2055
2056
2057
2058
2059
euro bn
Hellenic Republic debt amortization profile as of February 2018 (including the impact of the impementation by the ESM of the
"short-term debt measures" package and the Swap on PSI bonds in November 2017)
ANFA&SMP Other bonds IMF GLF EFSF&ESM Other loans Total Debt amort. (end-2016)
NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE | Greece: Macro Flash
GREECE | NBG Macro Flash |March 2018| p. 11
Greek Government bond yields declined in January 2018 to the lowest level since 2006, reflecting a boost in confidence
from the successful swap of the Greek PSI bonds and a timely completion of the 3rd review of the economic adjustment
programme. However, the assessment of Greek risk remains very sensitive to the increase in volatility in international
financial markets since mid-February 2018
The credible improvement in Greece’s fiscal position, in conjunction with the still supportive financial and monetary environment in the euro area, suggest that there is further scope for improvement in the relative valuation of Greek
sovereign debt. A sustainable recovery of economic activity and a credible operational specification of the “growth-adjustment” mechanism for debt-servicing would be the catalysts for a further improvement in Greece’s access to
market financing
Moody’s upgraded Greece's sovereign bond rating by two notches, to “B3” on February 21, 2018, while S&P and Fitch upgraded Greece by one notch to “B” on January 19 and February 16, respectively. These ratings are now 5 notches below investment grade for S&P and Fitch, and 6 notches below for Moody’s. All three agencies maintained a positive outlook. The key drivers for the rating decisions were economic and fiscal improvements, alongside improving prospects of further official debt relief.
In January 2018, the Greek State budget recorded a primary surplus of €1.9bn or 1.0% of GDP, 0.6% of GDP higher than the respective target of the 2018 Budget. Total tax revenue exceeded the respective target by €0.2bn (0.1% of GDP), mainly due to higher-than-budgeted revenue from the settlement of tax arrears from previous years, while lower primary expenditure contributed another 0.1% of GDP to the primary surplus.
Moreover, the surplus in the PIP balance was 0.3% of GDP above target, due to accelerating revenue from the EU that exceeded the respective payments by €0.5bn.
Government arrears, including tax refund arrears, decreased by €1.6bn in 2017 (to €3.3bn, the lowest level since the statistical recording of this data), which is €0.6bn greater than the funds disbursed by the ESM for this purpose.
1
2
3
4
5
6
1
2
3
4
5
6
30/
10/2
017
8/1
1/20
17
17/
11/2
017
26/
11/2
017
5/1
2/20
17
14/
12/2
017
23/
12/2
017
1/1
/201
8
10/
1/20
18
19/
1/20
18
28/
1/20
18
6/2
/201
8
15/
2/20
18
24/
2/20
18
5/3
/201
8
Greek Government bond yields
6m T-bill2yr Greek Gov.bond5yr Greek Gov.bond10yr Greek Gov. bond7yr Greek Gov.bond
%
PT
IE
ΙΤ SI
GR: Mar-18
NLBE DE
FR
FI
ES AT
SK
US
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
3,5
4,0
4,5
5,0
5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21
yield, %
10y gov. bond yields & sovereign ratings in the Euroarea & the US
Rating scale: from 0 (default) to 21 (highest quality - AAA)
Rating scale
●GR: Jan-18
0
3
6
9
12
15
0
3
6
9
12
15
Au
g-10
Feb
-11
Au
g-11
Feb
-12
Au
g-12
Feb
-13
Au
g-13
Feb
-14
Au
g-14
Feb
-15
Au
g-15
Feb
-16
Au
g-16
Feb
-17
Au
g-17
Feb
-18
Greece's Sovereign Ratings
Fitch Moody's S&P
index value:21 corresponds to AAA rating and 0 to selective default status
B Β3 BLatest Outlook positive positivepositive
20
22
24
26
28
30
20
22
24
26
28
30
Jan
-12
Jul-
12
Jan
-13
Jul-
13
Jan
-14
Jul-
14
Jan
-15
Jul-
15
Jan
-16
Jul-
16
Jan
-17
Jul-
17
Jan
-18
Government net revenue and primary expenditure
Gov. Net Revenue
Gov. Primary Expenditure
% GDP, 12m m.a.
NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE | Greece: Macro Flash
GREECE | NBG Macro Flash |March 2018| p. 12
Greece: Dates to Watch
2018
March
1-2 5 8 12 13 19 21 22-23
Euro Working Group
meeting
EL.STAT. release:
Quarterly National Accounts (Q4:2017)
ECB Governing
Council: monetary
policy meeting
Eurogroup meeting
ECOFIN meeting
€137mn IMF
repayment due
ECB Governing
Council: non-monetary
policy meeting
European Council meeting
April
11 20-22 23 26
ECB Governing Council: non-monetary policy
meeting
IMF Spring Meeting & World Bank meetings
EL.STAT. release: General government
deficit and debt 2017 – 1st notification
ECB Governing Council: monetary policy meeting
May
2 4 16 24 25
ECB Governing Council: non-monetary policy meeting
Completion of GR-stress tests
ECB Governing Council: non-monetary policy meeting
Eurogroup meeting
ECOFIN meeting
June
early 4 14 21 22 27 28-29 late
First submission of the 2018
EU-wide stress test’s
results to EBA by EU
banks
EL.STAT. release:
Quarterly National Accounts
(Q1:2018) / €148mn IMF
repayment due
ECB Governing
Council: monetary
policy meeting
Eurogroup meeting
ECOFIN meeting
ECB Governing
Council: non-
monetary policy
meeting
European Council meeting
Completion of 4th
Review
NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE | Greece: Macro Flash
GREECE | NBG Macro Flash |March 2018| p. 13
2018f
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4year
aver.Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
year
aver.Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
year
aver.
GDP 0,0 0,4 -2,4 0,5 -0,3 -0,4 -0,9 1,2 -0,9 -0,3 0,4 1,5 1,4 1,9 1,3 Q4:17 1,9 2,0
Domestic demand 1,2 -1,4 -4,4 0,5 -1,1 -0,6 1,7 2,5 -0,6 0,7 2,4 0,3 2,1 1,9 1,6 Q4:17 1,9 2,0
Final Consumption 0,5 0,9 -2,1 0,1 -0,2 -1,3 -1,8 2,2 -0,5 -0,4 0,4 0,4 -0,9 -0,3 -0,1 Q4:17 -0,3 0,7
Gross fixed capital formation 5,8 -9,2 -1,8 4,0 -0,3 -9,9 13,3 14,7 -9,0 1,5 16,5 1,8 -6,5 28,9 9,7 Q4:17 28,9 10,8
Exports of goods and services 12,8 11,7 -8,1 -3,6 2,9 -9,5 -10,3 9,2 4,9 -1,9 5,2 9,7 7,6 5,3 6,9 Q4:17 5,3 6,3
Imports of goods and services 15,8 4,6 -14,2 -3,4 0,4 -9,5 -1,9 14,0 5,2 1,3 11,1 4,8 9,5 4,9 7,5 Q4:17 4,9 6,1
Retail sales volume (y-o-y) 0,0 0,6 -4,2 -2,1 -1,5 -3,3 -4,0 3,1 1,7 -0,6 2,8 2,1 0,9 -0,4 1,3 Dec 1,8 …
Retail confidence (15-yr. average: -2,8) -3,0 -1,3 -25,6 -11,1 -10,3 0,9 5,1 10,8 10,5 6,8 5,8 0,4 -1,6 1,3 1,5 Feb 2,8 …
Car registrations (y-o-y) 19,2 33,2 -2,2 2,1 13,8 -0,3 19,5 16,8 4,0 10,7 37,8 3,4 35,8 … … Nov 18,9 …
Consumer confidence (15-yr. average: -51,3) -37,0 -43,6 -60,6 -61,6 -50,7 -67,5 -71,2 -68,4 -65,0 -68,0 -71,8 -70,2 -57,4 -52,7 -63,0 Feb -53,0 …
Industrial production (y-o-y) 3,0 -2,5 1,4 2,5 1,0 -1,0 5,1 2,0 3,8 2,5 9,4 2,9 3,5 1,0 4,1 Dec 0,2 …
Manufacturing production (y-o-y) 6,7 -0,6 -0,5 2,1 1,8 1,2 7,8 5,3 2,2 4,2 6,0 2,7 2,3 2,6 3,3 Dec 6,3 …
Capacity Utilization (15-yr. average: 70,7) 67,1 67,0 62,0 65,2 65,3 65,9 66,4 67,5 69,6 67,4 68,2 68,7 71,1 70,1 69,5 Dec 70,5 …
Industrial confidence (15-yr. average: -9,2) -9,1 -14,0 -26,6 -16,6 -16,6 -9,4 -9,5 -6,2 -6,1 -7,8 -5,6 -7,8 -2,4 -2,8 -4,6 Feb 4,2 …
PMI Manufacturing (base=50) 48,5 47,1 37,5 48,5 45,4 49,1 49,5 49,4 48,7 49,2 47,0 49,4 51,8 52,5 50,2 Feb 56,1 …
Construction permits (y-o-y) 29,2 -5,6 -22,4 5,9 -0,3 -11,9 -30,9 38,1 -9,5 -7,0 16,7 32,0 5,7 … … Nov 24,4 …
Construction confidence (15-yr. average: -34,1) -33,9 -44,8 -60,9 -48,5 -47,0 -37,1 -41,6 -55,9 -55,0 -47,4 -51,6 -58,8 -41,9 -54,1 -51,6 Feb -45,1 …
PIP Disbursements (y-o-y) -40,9 -57,6 -21,0 43,9 -2,8 7,0 18,0 35,8 -14,9 -1,8 -36,9 -24,9 -37,0 15,7 -5,4 Jan 207,4 …
Stock of finished goods (15-yr. average: 12,6) 13,0 15,0 17,4 15,3 15,2 12,5 11,1 14,9 12,2 12,7 10,7 11,8 12,7 10,3 11,4 Feb 4,2 …
Current account balance (% of GDP) -1,9 -0,4 3,1 -1,0 -0,2 -1,5 -0,3 2,2 -1,4 -1,1 -1,6 -0,2 2,6 -1,6 -0,8 Dec -0,8 -1,2
Current account balance (EUR mn) -3295 -750 5482 -1841 -404 -2560 -608 3822 -2526 -1872 -2783 -427 4575 -2820 -1454 Dec -1241 …
Services balance, net (EUR mn) 1297 4757 9062 1816 16932 716 3776 8641 2179 15311 1006 4212 9864 2306 17388 Dec 449 …
Primary Income Balance, net (EUR mn) 477 -575 -185 699 416 759 -184 -636 57 -3 951 -233 -450 -177 91 Dec -111 …
Merchandise exports-- non-oil (y-o-y cum.) 10,0 7,5 4,2 1,9 1,9 -1,1 -2,5 0,1 1,4 1,4 8,5 9,5 8,7 9,6 9,6 Dec 9,6 …
Merchandise imports-- non-oil (y-o-y cum.) 4,6 -1,6 -7,4 -7,8 -7,8 -3,3 -2,8 3,8 3,2 3,2 7,2 6,4 6,6 8,1 8,1 Dec 8,1 …
Gross tourism revenue (y-o-y) 10,5 9,6 4,7 -4,4 5,2 3,8 -10,7 -7,9 7,5 -6,8 -4,9 10,1 12,6 11,1 11,1 Dec 0,8 …
International tourist arrivals (y-o-y) 45,6 15,0 2,6 -2,1 7,1 -6,2 -0,2 6,5 15,9 5,1 -1,8 9,0 12,2 5,9 9,7 Dec -0,3 …
Unemployment rate 25,7 25,1 24,8 24,3 25,0 24,0 23,6 23,3 23,3 23,6 22,6 21,6 20,9 … … Nov 20,9 19,8
Employment growth (y-o-y) 0,9 2,0 2,1 2,8 2,0 3,1 2,4 2,0 0,6 2,0 1,4 2,4 2,4 … … Nov 2,6 1,8
Headline inflation -2,4 -2,1 -1,8 -0,6 -1,7 -0,9 -0,9 -1,0 -0,4 -0,8 1,4 1,3 1,0 0,8 1,1 Jan -0,2 0,6
Core inflation -0,7 -0,9 -0,5 0,3 -0,5 0,2 0,3 -0,3 -0,7 -0,1 -0,4 0,2 0,4 0,4 0,2 Jan 0,3 0,9
Producer prices excl.energy -0,1 0,2 0,2 -0,2 0,0 -0,6 -0,8 -0,9 -0,6 -0,7 0,4 0,3 0,6 … … Nov 0,4 …
Gov. balance as % of GDP (Programme definition, according
to Budget 2018 )… … … … -3,0 … … … … 0,5 … … … … -0,8 … … 0,2
Government debt as % of GDP (Programme definition,
according to EU Commission, Compliance Report, January 2018 )… … … … 176,8 … … … … 180,8 … … … … 181,1 … … 179,9
Revenues--Ordinary budget (cum. % change) -1,8 -5,7 -6,7 -0,8 -0,8 4,3 6,9 9,7 7,6 7,6 0,4 -1,1 0,4 -0,2 -0,2 Jan 3,3 …
Expenditure--Ordinary budget (cum. % change) -2,2 -6,7 -5,3 0,2 0,2 -2,3 2,7 1,5 0,7 0,7 -0,8 -3,2 -4,7 -1,9 -1,9 Jan -6,3 …
Deposits of domestic private sector -15,1 -26,0 -26,6 -23,5 -23,5 -12,0 0,5 1,6 3,4 3,4 3,1 3,4 4,6 4,7 4,7 Jan 4,9 …
Loans to private sector (incl. sec. & bond loans) -2,5 -1,7 -1,5 -2,0 -2,0 -2,1 -2,0 -1,6 -1,5 -1,5 -1,3 -1,3 -0,8 -0,8 -0,8 Jan -0,8 …
Mortgage loans (including securitized loans) -3,3 -3,4 -3,5 -3,5 -3,5 -3,4 -3,4 -3,4 -3,5 -3,5 -3,3 -3,2 -2,9 -3,0 -3,0 Jan -3,0 …
Consumer credit (including securitized loans) -2,5 -2,3 -2,8 -2,3 -2,3 -1,7 -1,5 -0,7 -0,8 -0,8 -0,7 -0,7 -0,5 -0,5 -0,5 Jan -0,6 …
10-year government bond yield 10,0 11,6 10,8 7,9 10,1 9,5 8,2 8,2 7,5 8,3 7,2 6,1 5,5 5,1 6,0 Feb 4,2 …
Spread between 10 year and bunds (bps) 967 1112 1011 730 955 919 805 823 733 820 689 577 502 469 559 Feb 345 …
USD/euro 1,13 1,11 1,11 1,10 1,11 1,1 1,13 1,12 1,08 1,11 1,07 1,1 1,18 1,18 1,13 Feb 1,23 …
Sources: BoG, NSSG, MoF, ASE, Bloomberg and NBG estimates unless otherwise indicated
Fiscal policy
Monetary sector (y-o-y, end of period)
Interest rates (period average)
Exchange rates (period average)
Most recent
Real economy (y-o-y period average, constant prices)
Coincident and leading indicators (period average)
External sector (period average)
Employment
Prices (y-o-y period average)
Greek Economy: Selected Indicators
2015 2016 2017
NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE | Greece: Macro Flash
GREECE | NBG Macro Flash |March 2018| p. 14
NATIONAL BANK OF GREECE
Editor: P. Mylonas, Deputy CEO, Head of Research, e-mail: [email protected] Tel: (+30210) 3341521, FAX: (+30210) 3341702.
Main contributors to this issue (in alphabetical order): E. Alevizopoulou, E. Balikou, A. Gouveli, N. Magginas, G. Murphy, P.
Nikolitsa. This analysis is provided solely for the information of professional investors who are expected to make their own
investment decisions without undue reliance on its contents. Under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer
to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy. Any data provided in this bulletin has been obtained from sources believed to be
reliable. Because of the possibility of error on the part of such sources, National Bank of Greece does not guarantee the
accuracy, timeliness or usefulness of any information. The National Bank of Greece and its affiliate companies accept no
liability for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this report.
Note: The analysis is based on data up to March 6, 2018, unless otherwise indicated
GREECE
Macro View March 2018