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ICRAF BOT MeetingICRAF BOT MeetingNairobi, 5 April 2011
GRP on Climate ChangeGRP on Climate Change Outlook 2011
Henry NeufeldtOn behalf of the whole GRP5 team
Research Focus of the GRP on Climate Change
GRP 5.1 on Adaptation: Vulnerability and adaptation of agroforestry systems to climate variability and change
GRP 5.2 on Mitigation: Advancing carbon sequestration through agroforestry to enhance livelihoods while mitigating climate change
• Impact Assessment• Downscaling climate models and development of climate analogues• Climate impacts on agroforestry species pollinators vectors and diseasesClimate impacts on agroforestry species, pollinators, vectors and diseases• Impacts on economic activities
• Adaptation research• Assessment of vulnerabilities and adaptation strategies• Improving adaptive capacity (e.g. through agroforestry)• Limits of adaptation and innovative risk management strategies
• Mitigation research• Using RES and other approaches for climate change mitigation• Development of (more) sustainable biofuel production systems (e.g. charcoal)p ( ) p y ( g )• Assessment of GHG fluxes from different soils and LU systems
Key Successes
Plants from temperate and cold climates may delayed in their spring phases due to later fulfilment ofphases due to later fulfilment of chilling requirements in warm winters. Continued warming due to climate change may strengthen this effect andchange may strengthen this effect and attenuate or even reverse the observed advancing trends in spring phenology.p gy
Key Successes
Key Successesey Successes
K SKey Successes
Key Successes
Cli t lClimate analogues
Key Successes
ICRAF is one of the organizers of the 1st and 2nd
national CC Adaptation conference in thenational CC Adaptation conference in the Philippines
9
GRP 5 workshop on 3‐4 September
•Predictability of the climatic information for reducing tropical agriculture vulnerability (PICREVAT)
List of all ongoing projects with climate change contexts•Secular evolution of climate in circum‐atlantic regions and responses of eco‐lacustrine sustems (ESCARSEL)•Rungwe Environmental Science Observatory Network (RESON)•Opportunity Cost of Different Land Use Options to Promote Agroforestry, Carbon and Biodiversity Assets: Case Study in Xishuangbanna•Coping, Adaptation and Vulnerability to Drought in Yunnan, Southwest China•Understanding Vulnerability of the Poor Mountain Farmers and Their Adaptation to Climate Variability and Socio‐economic Stressors in Southwest China•Parkland trees and livelihoods: adapting to climate change in the West African SahelW d li d b l f l d f i / h b i i l l i i h W Af i S h l•Wood quality and carbon‐neutral fuelwood systems of native tree/shrub species in natural populations in the West African Sahel•National REDD network of Vietnam•Rewards for, Use of and shared investment in Pro‐poor Environmental Services schemes (RUPES), phase II•Agroforestry for Climate change Adaptation in Vietnam and Kenya ‐ Local and Scientific knowledge for Option Development•Architecture of REALU: Reducing Emissions from All Land Uses‐ REALU (Phase II)•Toward a biodiverse rubber estate: Quick biodiversity survey of Bridgestone Sumatra Rubber Estate•Impacts of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and enhancing carbon stocks (I REDD)•Impacts of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and enhancing carbon stocks (I‐REDD)•Strategies to Use Biofuel Value Chains in Sub‐Saharan Africa to Respond to Global Change (Better‐iS)•Pro poor rewards for environmental services in Africa (PRESA)•Resilient Agro‐landscapes to Climate Change in Tanzania (ReACCT)•Carbon sequestration potential of parkland agroforestry in the Sahel (Cseq Sahel)•Carbon assessment in robusta shade coffee systems of Uganda (‘Carbon Coffee’)•Adaptation of Land‐use to Climate Change in sub‐Saharan Africa (ALUCCSA); same as 35Adaptation of Land use to Climate Change in sub Saharan Africa (ALUCCSA); same as 35•Accountability Local Level Initiative to Reduce Emission from Deforestation and Degradation in Indonesia (ALLREDDI)•Encouraging tree planting for carbon sequestration in Malawi•Crop insurance scheme and adaptation to climate change in the Shire river basin Malawi•Bioenergy Provision within Agroforestry Systems in East Africa•Analysis of the effects of inter‐annual variation in rainfall and occurrence of extreme events on water use efficiency by crops in Agroforestry•Climate analogues: A flexible and powerful web‐based tool for identifying and visualizing climate analogues•Power Relations and REDD: unpacking ‘carbon rights’ and addressing the question of legality in Indonesia•Fair and efficient and Sustainable Emission Reduction from Land Use in Indonesia (FESERLUI)•A Study of Carbon Footprint of Indonesian Palm Oil Production•Forests and Climate in the Asia Pacific Region•Patterns of Vulnerability in the Forestry, Agriculture, Water Sectors and the Costal Zones in Leyte Island, Philippines•Feasibility of REDD mechanisms in the case of the East Usambaras, TanzaniaS h bi i d i l i•Sumatran orangutan habitat ecosystem services assessment and opportunity cost analysis•Rewards for Use of and Shared Investment in Pro‐poor Environmental Services (RUPES) – Kalahan, Philippines•Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation in Asia and the Pacific•Carbon Mitigation Potential of REDD in the Philippines: Will it make a Difference in Financing Forest Development?•Overcoming Barriers of Smallholder Forestry Carbon Development in the Philippines•Linking Climate Change Adaptation to Sustainable Development in Southeast Asia•Tropical Forest and Climate Change Adaptation (TroFCCA)•Tropical Forest and Climate Change Adaptation (TroFCCA)•Carbon Benefits Project: Measurement, Monitoring and Modeling (CBP:MMM)•Enabling small holders to improve their livelihoods and benefit from carbon finance •The COMART FOUNDATION West Kenya Project 2010 Impact Assessment•Biochar inoculants for enabling smallholder agriculture (BREAD)
Lead partners in ongoing and new projects
New opportunities
New grants
• Care project: Making carbon finance work for the poor• BREAD project: GHG fluxes and biochar• MICCA project: Mitigation of climate change in agriculturep j g g g• CCAFS funding for GHG flux measurements in western Kenya
New proposals
• BMZ proposal on climate extremes in Southeast AsiaBMZ proposal on climate extremes in Southeast Asia• ESPA proposal on ecosystem services in coffee agroforestry landscapes in East Africa• Finnish Biocarbon proposal in western Africa• Comart proposal on ABCD in western KenyaComart proposal on ABCD in western Kenya• NSF application on plant physiology and stable isotopes for optimization of wood production
Integration and collaboration with CRPs
CRP7: Climate Change Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
• CCAFS scientists at ICRAF: Patti Kristjanson, Moushumi Chaudhury, Michael Misiko• CCAFS workshops in Mexico and Bonn (upcoming)• CCAFS support for research:
• GHG fluxes (Matthias; new measurements)• Care project• Gender and climate change• Household and village baselines
CRP6.4: Climate change adaptation and mitigation in ‘Forests Trees and Agroforestry’
• Involvement in proposal writing• Meeting in May to develop logframe
Gaps and overlaps between CCAFS and CRP6.4Gaps and overlaps between CCAFS and CRP6.4
• Planned meeting in early June with participation of ICRAF, CCAFS and CRP6.4 staff
Results from CCAFS work in western Kenya
Changes in Soil Carbon (from Quickbird image) and Number of Hunger Months per Household: Lower Nyando Block, western Kenya
Most of our households on soils of poor fertility;Those on higher fertility soils still food insecure in a ‘normal’ rainfall year
Constraints / risks
• Adaptation / vulnerability work requires hiring a social scientist• Adaptation / vulnerability work requires hiring a social scientist
• Need to be able to effectively assess above‐ground biomass requires hiring a new natural scientisthiring a new natural scientist
• CCAFS and CRP6.4 consume too much coordination and administration in relation to the benefitsin relation to the benefits
• High fluctuation of funds for GHG flux measurements• Cost intensive• Sub‐optimal methodology• No champion to lead the research
Diffi lt i t ti i• Difficult integration across regions• Benchmark sites• Agree on consistent measurement approaches for key concepts
¡¿ Thanks for a future !?
Annual mean temperature anomalies (relative to 1980‐1999)
(Source: IPCC AR4 WG1, 2007)
Annual mean precipitation anomalies (relative to 1980‐1999)
(Source: IPCC AR4 WG1, 2007)
Possible climate change impacts (depending on trajectory)
(Source: IPCC AR4 WG1, 2007;van Vuuren et al., 2010)Mitigation Baseline
Contributions to climate change
A i lt f t d l d h tlAgriculture, forestry and land use change are currently responsible for 25% to 30% of total GHG emissions
Projection of medium‐high climate change and variability
2060s2060s
In one way or another …
observationsHadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2)
2040s
2060s
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Correlation between GDP and rainfall in Zimbabwe
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The cross‐cutting agenda of Climate Change research at ICRAF
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Climate Change impacts, adaptation and mitigation
Regional context: 6 ecoregionsRegional context: 6 ecoregions
Key Successes
Trees on farms: Tackling the triple challenge of mitigation, adaptation and food securitymitigation, adaptation and food security
Trees on farms addressTrees on farms address climate change mitigation and adaptation, and foodand adaptation, and food security by storing carbon, buffering against climate‐related impacts and providing additional income through tree based productstree‐based products
Key Successes
The Carbon Benefits Project aims to provide a cost‐effective end‐to‐end estimation and support system for showing carbon benefits in GEF and potentially other natural resource management projectsmanagement projects
The system will be applicable to a wide range of soils climates and landwide range of soils, climates and land uses
How GRP5 interfaces with the regions
Project for the Prediction and Evaluation of Climate Change’s g
Impact on Agroforestry Systems in the Peruvian Amazon and
d i d i
Climate Change Climate Change AdaptationAdaptationthrough bestthrough best
Ecuadorian Andean Regionsthrough best through best practices in the practices in the Morogoro RegionMorogoro Region
Wh ki d f l i hi i d d f l?
Millet production is enhanced due to the Faidherbia albidain the fields
What kind of relationship is needed or useful?
Key Successes
Global survey of REDD projects and survey of Africa’s biocarbon experienceAfrica s biocarbon experience
The current patterns of REDD investments across the tropics will miss important opportunities to maximize emissions reductions. Investments in emissions reductions. Investments inREDD demonstration projects, particularly in Africa, should be increased in order to generate practicalincreased, in order to generate practical lessons for future REDD implementation and to enhance participation in mainstream carbon marketsmainstream carbon markets