Investment Market Germany
PROVADA 5th June 2013
CBRE | Page 2
“In Europe, which country/region do you believe to be the most attractive for making investment purchases in 2013?”
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Germ
any
UK
CE
E
Spain
Fra
nce
Nord
ics
Holla
nd
Italy
Oth
er
%
2012 20132012 (n=341)2013 (n=361)
Source: CBRE European Investor Intentions Survey 2013
CBRE | Page 3
Which city is most attractive for purchases in 2013?
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0
Milan
Barcelona
Moscow
Stockholm
Brussels
Amsterdam
Madrid
Frankfurt
Hamburg
Dublin
Warsaw
Paris
Berlin
Munich
London
Percentage
Source: CBRE European Investor Intentions Survey 2013
Economic Background1
CBRE | Page 5
GDP real: Germany vs. Eurozone
Germany – The Powerhouse in a struggling Eurozone
Source: Consensus Economics, Destatis (Feb 2013)
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Euro zone Germany France Italy Spain U.K. U.S.
2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F
CBRE | Page 6
Unemployment rate in comparison
Source: Eurostat (Dec 2012)
German Unemployment Rate down to 5%!
Office Letting Market2
CBRE | Page 8
Prime Office Rental Growth, 2012-14
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%M
adrid
Barc
ela
ona
Lis
bon
Dublin
Mila
n
Rom
e
Bru
ssels
Budapest
Pra
gue
Am
ste
rdam
Zurich
Pais
CB
D
Wars
aw
Copenhagen
Fra
nkfu
rt
Ham
burg
Vie
nna
Berlin
Sto
ckholm
Hels
inki
Munic
h
Moscow
London C
ity
London W
E
Oslo
annualised, 2012-14
Source: IPF (Nov. 2012)
Best growth predicted for London and some
German and Nordic cities
CBRE | Page 9
Prime Office Rents
Source: CBRE Research
“Top 5” Office Markets Germany
Frankfurt
Munich
Dusseldorf
Hamburg
Berlin
CBRE | Page 10
Take-up (incl. Owner-Occupier) by Office Market/Vacancy Rate
Source: CBRE Research
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1
1,0
00 s
q m
Berlin Dusseldorf Frankfurt Hamburg Munich Avg. Vacancy rate Top 5
“Top 5” Office Markets Germany
Property Investment Market3
CBRE | Page 12
Investment Market Germany
EUR 25.2bn Transaction Volume in 2012
plus 11% y-o-y +++ after 2006/2007 best year ever and
highly promising start to 2013
Source: CBRE Research
CBRE | Page 13
Volume of Transactions by Type of Use
Investment Market Germany
Source: CBRE Research
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Office Retail Logistics/Industrial Development Sites Others
CBRE | Page 14
Retail Investment Market Germany
Source: CBRE Research
Lack of core products and absence of large deals hinder higher
transactions volume. Anyway, y-o-y plus 42% in Q1 2013.
€9.2bn
+42%
CBRE | Page 15
Prime Office Yields
* Based on usual non-recoverable costs in the market
Investment Market Germany
Source: CBRE Research
Net Initial Yields*:
5.00 % Berlin5.00 % Dusseldorf4.90 % Frankfurt4.88 % Top 5 Total4.75 % Hamburg4.75 % Munich
Multiplier (gross):
17.85 Berlin17.85 Dusseldorf18.20 Frankfurt18.30 Top 5 Total18.75 Hamburg18.75 Munich
CBRE | Page 16
Yield Premium at a Historic High
Source: CBRE Research
German Prime Office Yield versus 10-year bond
„Top 5“ Cities Market Information4
CBRE | Page 18
Berlin
Hamburg
Munich
Dusseldorf
Frankfurt
* Top 5 cities, 2013 Q1
Stock 17.85 mill. sq m
Prime rent 22.50 €/sq m/month
270€ p.a.
Prime yield 5.00 %
Take-up 85,500 sq m
Vacancy rate 8.5 %
Office employees 668,212Stock 9.36 mill. sq m
Prime rent 26 €/sq m/month
310€ p.a.
Prime yield 5.00 %
Take-up 76,800 sq m
Vacancy rate 11.1 %
Office employees 238,475
Stock 11.71 mill. sq m
Prime rent 38 €/sq m/month
450€ p.a.
Prime yield 4.90 %
Take-up 71,100 sq m
Vacancy rate 14.2 %
Office employees 322,841
Stock 21.00 mill. sq m
Prime rent 31.50 €/sq m/month
380€ p.a.
Prime yield 4.75 %
Take-up 155,900 sq m
Vacancy rate 7.0 %
Office employees 474,646
Stock 13.53 mill. sq m
Prime rent 24 €/sq m/month
290€ p.a.
Prime yield 4.75 %
Take-up 107,000 sq m
Vacancy rate 7.6 %
Office employees 490,680
Office Take up Q1 2013 = 0.5 M sq m*
Source: CBRE Research
“Top 5” Office Markets Germany
CBRE | Page 19
Contact:
International Investment
Matthias EulerSenior Director
Co-Head International Investment
CBRE GmbHWestendDuo
Bockenheimer Landstraße 24
60323 Frankfurt T +49 69 170077 629 | M +49 151 15150570
DISCLAIMER 2013 CBREInformation herein has been obtained from sources believed reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make
no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to independently confirm its accuracy and completeness. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used are for example only and do not represent the current or future performance of the
market. This information is designed exclusively for use by CBRE clients, and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.