investment market germany -...

Investment Market Germany

PROVADA 5th June 2013

CBRE |

“In Europe, which country/region do you believe to be the most attractive for making investment purchases in 2013?”

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Germ

any

UK

CE

E

Spain

Fra

nce

Nord

ics

Holla

nd

Italy

Oth

er

%

2012 20132012 (n=341)2013 (n=361)

Source: CBRE European Investor Intentions Survey 2013

CBRE |

Which city is most attractive for purchases in 2013?

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0

Milan

Barcelona

Moscow

Stockholm

Brussels

Amsterdam

Madrid

Frankfurt

Hamburg

Dublin

Warsaw

Paris

Berlin

Munich

London

Percentage

Source: CBRE European Investor Intentions Survey 2013

Economic Background1

CBRE |

GDP real: Germany vs. Eurozone

Germany – The Powerhouse in a struggling Eurozone

Source: Consensus Economics, Destatis (Feb 2013)

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

Euro zone Germany France Italy Spain U.K. U.S.

2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F

CBRE |

Unemployment rate in comparison

Source: Eurostat (Dec 2012)

German Unemployment Rate down to 5%!

Office Letting Market2

CBRE |

Prime Office Rental Growth, 2012-14

-5%

-4%

-3%

-2%

-1%

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%M

adrid

Barc

ela

ona

Lis

bon

Dublin

Mila

n

Rom

e

Bru

ssels

Budapest

Pra

gue

Am

ste

rdam

Zurich

Pais

CB

D

Wars

aw

Copenhagen

Fra

nkfu

rt

Ham

burg

Vie

nna

Berlin

Sto

ckholm

Hels

inki

Munic

h

Moscow

London C

ity

London W

E

Oslo

annualised, 2012-14

Source: IPF (Nov. 2012)

Best growth predicted for London and some

German and Nordic cities

CBRE |

Prime Office Rents

Source: CBRE Research

“Top 5” Office Markets Germany

Frankfurt

Munich

Dusseldorf

Hamburg

Berlin

CBRE |

Take-up (incl. Owner-Occupier) by Office Market/Vacancy Rate


0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Q1

1,0

00 s

q m

Berlin Dusseldorf Frankfurt Hamburg Munich Avg. Vacancy rate Top 5


Property Investment Market3

CBRE |


EUR 25.2bn Transaction Volume in 2012

plus 11% y-o-y +++ after 2006/2007 best year ever and

highly promising start to 2013


CBRE |

Volume of Transactions by Type of Use



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Office Retail Logistics/Industrial Development Sites Others

CBRE |

Retail Investment Market Germany


Lack of core products and absence of large deals hinder higher

transactions volume. Anyway, y-o-y plus 42% in Q1 2013.

€9.2bn

+42%

CBRE |

Prime Office Yields

* Based on usual non-recoverable costs in the market



Net Initial Yields*:

5.00 % Berlin5.00 % Dusseldorf4.90 % Frankfurt4.88 % Top 5 Total4.75 % Hamburg4.75 % Munich

Multiplier (gross):

17.85 Berlin17.85 Dusseldorf18.20 Frankfurt18.30 Top 5 Total18.75 Hamburg18.75 Munich

CBRE |

Yield Premium at a Historic High


German Prime Office Yield versus 10-year bond

„Top 5“ Cities Market Information4

CBRE |

Berlin

Hamburg

Munich

Dusseldorf

Frankfurt

* Top 5 cities, 2013 Q1

Stock 17.85 mill. sq m

Prime rent 22.50 €/sq m/month

270€ p.a.

Prime yield 5.00 %

Take-up 85,500 sq m

Vacancy rate 8.5 %

Office employees 668,212Stock 9.36 mill. sq m

Prime rent 26 €/sq m/month

310€ p.a.

Prime yield 5.00 %

Take-up 76,800 sq m

Vacancy rate 11.1 %

Office employees 238,475



450€ p.a.

Prime yield 4.90 %

Take-up 71,100 sq m

Vacancy rate 14.2 %



Prime rent 31.50 €/sq m/month

380€ p.a.

Prime yield 4.75 %

Take-up 155,900 sq m

Vacancy rate 7.0 %




290€ p.a.

Prime yield 4.75 %

Take-up 107,000 sq m

Vacancy rate 7.6 %


Office Take up Q1 2013 = 0.5 M sq m*



CBRE |

Contact:

International Investment

Matthias EulerSenior Director

Co-Head International Investment

CBRE GmbHWestendDuo

Bockenheimer Landstraße 24

60323 Frankfurt T +49 69 170077 629 | M +49 151 15150570

[email protected]

DISCLAIMER 2013 CBREInformation herein has been obtained from sources believed reliable. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not verified it and make

no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. It is your responsibility to independently confirm its accuracy and completeness. Any projections, opinions, assumptions or estimates used are for example only and do not represent the current or future performance of the

market. This information is designed exclusively for use by CBRE clients, and cannot be reproduced without prior written permission of CBRE.

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