Jagdish KishwanDirector General, Indian Council of Forestry
Research and Education
Estimation of Forest Carbon Stocks in India: A Methodology based on National Forest
Inventory
CfRN-ICFRE International WorkshopDehradun, 27th April 2009
UNFCCC and Kyoto Protocol have made Carbon a tradable
commodity
COP 13: December 2007Bali Action Plan: “…Policy approaches and positive incentives on issues relating to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries; and the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries…” [Para 1b (iii) of BAP]
= REDD-plus REDD: “...inter alia, assessments of changes in forest cover and associated carbon stocks and greenhouse gas emissions, incremental changes due to sustainable management of the forest…”
Emerging Policy Options
1. Conservation, sustainable management of forests, increase in forest cover/A&R (Add C)
2. Reducing deforestation and degradation rates (Save C)
Indian Viewpoint on REDD
Comprehensive REDDCarbon Saved and Carbon Added
•Reducing Deforestation & Degradation
•Conservation, Sustainable Management of Forests, Increase in Forest Cover (A&R)
Indian submission incorporates above and seeks incentives on Incremental and Baseline stocks
Distribution of Global forest cover by region (%)
16.1
14.5
25.3
17.9
5.2
21Africa
Asia
Europe
N and C America
Oceania
S America
10 Countries with largest forest cover(mha)
478310
303
197
164
13488 6968
Russian Fedeartion
Brazil
Canada
US
China
Australia
DR Congo
Indonesia
Peru
India
Global Forest Carbon (2005)
Constant or baseline stocks
638 btC
Forest C stocks in developing countries
300 btC
Forest C stocks under C, SMF
100 btC
Stocks added due to IFC per year
0.3 btC = 2.4 mha
Stocks lost due to deforestation per year
1.7 btC = 13.4 mha
Based on Policy Approaches and Practices
HFLD, LFLDCN, SMF
IFC+CN, SMF HFHD, LFHD
GLOBAL FOREST C STOCKS
CONSTANT STOCKS
CHANGING STOCKS
INCREMENTAL DECREMENTAL
HFLD: High Forest Cover Low deforestationLFLD: Low Forest Cover Low deforestationIFC: Increase in forest coverCN: Forest ConservationSMF: Sustainable Management of Forests
HFHD: High Forest cover High DeforestationLFHD: Low Forest cover High Deforestation
State of Forest Carbon Stocks A fn of
CONSTANT STOCKScs
DECREMENTAL STOCKSDS
INCREMENTAL STOCKSIS
CO2
c
Constant Stocks HFLD, LFLD, CN, SMF
Decremental Stocks HFHD, LFHD
BaseLine
Action of HFLD, LFLD, CN, SMF for CS
Action of IFC, CN, SMF for IS
Action of HFHD, LFHD for DS
All actions are equally important in maintaining Global integrity of stocks
Comprehensive approach
All three (CS, IS, DS) contribute in state of forest carbon stocks
C
C
REDD+ Mechanism Beneficial to all CountriesComprehensive Approach
(All Contributors to SFC Equally Important)
Incentives/compensation for all necessaryWhy incentives/compensation?
Constant stocks (HFLD, LFLD, CN, SMF)– Cost on management, opportunity cost of conversion to
more beneficial land usesIncremental stocks (IFC, CN, SMF)– Cost on management, cost incurred on additional
plantations, revenue loss due to no or reduced loggingDecremental stocks (HFHD, LFHD)– Revenue loss due to reduced logging
Acceptability of Comprehensive Mechanism?
The only logical answer after Bali» REDD+
• Inaccessible, undisturbed but managed forests to be counted provided costs on preserving their present state are incurred
• Conservation projects/areas also to be counted against commitment for continuing policy of conservation
• Some developed countries against comprehensive approach especially C but more important is logical conclusion of BAP
• If FC, EFCS effect state of global forest carbon, these cannot be ignored
Methodological and Policy Issues
Unresolved
State of readiness??
Finalization of Definitions, Modalities, Rules and Guidelines by COP 15??
Main Methodological Issues(SBSTA 28, Bonn June 2008, FCCC/SBSTA/2008/L.12)
Estimation and monitoring – National monitoring systems to facilitate results-based,
demonstrable, transparent and verifiable estimates– Options for robust, consistent methodologies including
forest inventories, ground-based, and remote-sensing approaches, as appropriate;
– Applicability of the considered methodologies, including those in existing good practice guidance of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to the assessment of reductions in emissions from deforestation; reductions in emissions from degradation, and incremental changes due to sustainable management of the forest.
Development of Methodology …contd…
Methodology Common to Both Policy Approaches based on remote sensing and minimum ground verification
Simultaneous Development of Methodology
Assessment of Forest Carbon Stocks
–Biomass Carbon
–Soil Organic Carbon (SOC)
At agreed interval with respect to
–Reference emissions level
–Reference level
Assessment of Forest Carbon Stocks: Indian
Approach
Methodology to Assess Forest Carbon Stocks
• Work in progress on Second National Communication (SNC) to UNFCCC–Biomass Carbon (FSI)–SOC (ICFRE, IIRS)
Methodology to Assess Forest Carbon Stocks
• Carbon per unit area– Biomass (agb + bgb)– Soil Organic Carbon
• Sample Stratum– Forest Type Groups (>200)– Crown Density Classes (3)– Sample Points (20,000 for BC, 600 for SOC)
• Calculation– Algorithms for computing agb, bgb from wood or
timber or stand volume
Biomass Carbon Estimation: FSI Approach
•Forest Type MappingScale 1:50,000 (providing minimum mappable area of 1 ha)
Forest types (Champion and Seth Classification- 16 major forest types, 46 subgroups, ~200 subgroup types)
•Forest Cover Mapping Forest density (3 classes):
Very dense >70%, Moderately dense 40-70%,
Open 10-40%
Forest Cover Mapping Methodology in India Methodology
• forest cover assessment since 1987 on biennial cycle
• digital interpretation of satellite data
• intensive ground truthing
• change maps
• accuracy assessment
Analysis and output
• district-wise area figures
• change matrix
• area figures for hill and tribal districts
• maps available on 1:50,000 scale
•capturing forest cover down to 1 ha (Resolution of 23.5 m), using IRS-1D LISS III sensor
First country in the world to start an operational system for monitoring forest cover
2.5’x2.5’ grid
ASSESSMENT OF GROWING STOCK, BIOMASS CARBON IN INDIA’S FORESTS
State/UT wise
Stratum wise
Growing Stock Assessment for the Entire country
Map sheetsCalculation of volume in the
Grid
Location specific Inventory data
Aerial Photograph, Stock maps, Inventory
forms
Forest Cover Maps based on Satellite
dataDivided into Grids of 2½’x2½’
Density
Volume
Forest type/strata
2.5’x2.5’
ForestNon forest
Selection of Forested
Grids 2.½’x2.½’
Biomass Carbon
2.5’x2.5’
20,000 sample plots – Volume –Biomass (V*D)--Biomass Expansion factor -AGB) -- root shoot ratio - carbon factor (Estimated or IPCC default)
Accuracy• Forest cover assessment accuracies
>92 percent • National level assessment of growing
stock: sampling error of <3 per cent• Development of biomass expansion
factors and root: shoot ratio for more accurate estimates
Estimation of Growing Stocks at National Level
• Spatial data base in GIS comprising of 171,028 grid polygons of 2 ½’x 2½’ size (approximate area 18 km2)
• Polygon-wise estimation of growing stock using volume estimates for all the forested grids in the country
SOC Estimation: ICFRE-IIRS Approach
Forest Groups/major types : 16 Sub-groups : 46 Sub-group types : ~200 No of replications : 3 Total samples : 660 Depth of sampling : 0-30 cm Standard & uniform sampling and estimation procedure Area coverage of each subgroup types (221) Aggregation and upscaling to forest types (16) Estimation of variability and uncertainty
Assessment of Soil Organic Carbon
Field verification & soil sampling
Area of forest types/ major species
Forest types of India (C&S)
DBT/DOS ReportsLocal knowledgeOther data sources
Forest cover (FSI) Admin. boundary
GIS integration
Identification of possible subgroup types
Correction
Soil C content
Soil analysis
FSI
DB
T/D
OS
NR
SAG
loba
lO
ther
s
Expert decision
Soil C density & stock
Reporting
ANALYSIS
Regi stration (Spatial standards)
Regi stration (Spatial standards)
Regi stration (Spatial standards)
Possible Correlations
• Forest Type Groups [R] Biomass Carbon
• Forest Type Groups [R] Soil Carbon
Estimates of Forest Biomass Carbon Density of Indian Forests
Historical: 77.3 t/ha (1880)
Recent estimate by various workers based on remote sensing and ground based
verification: 32-65 t/ha
Current estimation of forest biomass carbon (in progress) by Forest Survey
of India
Carbon (t/ha) in biomass different forest types of India
(Derived from Tiwari and Singh 1987)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Range: 20-303 t/ha in different forest types
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
AM
OU
NT
OF
SOIL
O
RG
AN
IC C
AR
BON
(t/h
)
TWE TTF TSE TMD TDE TDD STP STBH SAF MWT MAS LSF HMT HDT
FOREST TYPES
AMOUNT OF SOIL ORGANIC CARBON WRT DIFFERENT FOREST TYPES
TWETTFTSETMDTDETDDSTPSTBHSAFMWTMASLSFHMTHDT
Tropical Thorn Forest TTF
Tropical Dry Evergreen TDE
Tropical Dry Deciduous TDD
Himalayan Dry Temperate HDT
Sub Alpine Forest SAF
Sub Tropical Pine STP
Tropical Moist Deciduous TMD
Sub Tropical Broadleaved Hill STBH
Moist Alpine Scrub MAS
Tropical Semi Evergreen TSE
Tropical Wet Evergreen TWE
Himalayan Moist Temperate HMT
Montane Wet Temperate MWT
Littoral Swamp Forest LSF
Range:
25.38 t/ha in Tropical Thorn Forest to 155.2 t/ha in Littoral Swamp Forest
25.4 Tropical Thorn Forest
155.2 Littoral Swamp Forest
Forest type Soil Organic Carbon (t/h)
2 Tropical Thorn Forest TTF 25.381
5 Tropical Dry Evergreen TDE 32.089
6 Tropical Dry Deciduous TDD 32.988
14 Himalayan Dry Temperate HDT 44.057
9 Sub Alpine Forest SAF 45.66
7 Sub Tropical Pine STP 46.788
4 Tropical Moist Deciduous TMD 58.756
8 Sub Tropical Broadleaved Hill STBH 70.804
11 Moist Alpine Scrub MAS 73.501
3 Tropical Semi Evergreen TSE 78.483
1 Tropical Wet Evergreen TWE 112.585
13 Himalayan Moist Temperate HMT 113.901
10 Montane Wet Temperate MWT 122.671
12 Littoral Swamp Forest LSF 155.22
SNC- India
Work in progress on approach followed for estimation of forest carbon stocks
Biomass Carbon+Soil Organic Carbon
Potentially a suitable methodology for monitoring and assessment of forest
carbon stocks under
REDD+
• For any query contact: [email protected]
16 Forest Types of India (Champion and Seth)
Forest Cover Map 10-40%
40-70%
>70%
6363.5
6464.5
6565.5
6666.5
6767.5
6868.5
1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005Year
Fore
st C
over
India’s Forest Cover (Million Ha)
Nation –Wide Vector Coverage of Polygons (of extent 2.5’ x 2.5’)
• Total number of polygons – 171,028
• Attribute data has been linked to the polygons
SOC Estimation (ICFRE/IIRS Approach)
• Basic facts and criteria for SNC approach: Forest Groups/major types : 16 Sub-groups : 46 Sub-group types : 221 No of replications : 3 Total sample numbers : 660 Depth of sampling : 0-30 cm Standard & uniform sampling and estimation
procedure Area coverage of each major forest types with
reasonable accuracy and consistency with recent estimates, if any
Aggregation and up scaling to higher levels Estimation of variability and uncertainty
Positive Incentive
Carbon Saved=Carbon Added
• Same incentive for– 1 unit of carbon saved (RD)– 1 unit of carbon added (CN, SMF, A&R)
Methodology: Policy Elements (India)
• National Level Accounting Mechanism• Baseline Year/Starting Date: Flexibility (say 1990)• Reference Emissions Level• Assessment of Forest Carbon Stocks
– Biomass Carbon– Soil Organic Carbon (SOC)
• Assessment at regular intervals (5 year National Level Forest Carbon Accounts)
Supportsdevelopment of a common methodology for all policy approaches, based on remote sensing and minimum ground verification to achieve defined
confidence level
Indian Case:Montreal to Bali
And Beyond
Indian Viewpoint on REDD• Indian viewpoint in consonance with
REDD principle• REDD being misinterpreted to constrict
its applicability• Always keen on inclusion of other
approaches for reducing emissions successfully adopted by many countries
Acceptance of India’s Position• India’s breakthrough in second UNFCCC workshop at
Cairns in Australia: 7-9 March 2007
• Put forth policy approach and scheme of incentives for rewarding nations for conserving and increasing forest carbon stocks
• India before Cairns practically had no allies to support incentives for forest conservation
• Countries post-Cairns started speaking of incentives to benefit more countries including nations with strong conservation background (China, Congo Basin Countries, Cameroon, PNG, Bolivia, Mexico, Thailand, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan)
Sustainable Management of Forest
• Improvement in existing cover• Increase in forest/tree cover
(harvest< increment) = net addition• Net GHG removals estimation with
reference to starting date (baseline)
SMF means state of increment in forest carbon stocks
Parties Submissions on REDD
(21 March 2008)• FCCC/SBSTA/2008/MISC.4 and Add.1–3• Most submissions advocate
– Use of IPCC GPG (LULUCF) 2003– Remote Sensing (RS) based assessment and
monitoring– Supported by robust sampling and ground
truthing– Need for continuous data collection– Sustainable management of forests and forest
conservation– Need to define deforestation and degradation– Which policy issues?
Statusof
Issues
Other Policy issues Support Market based mechanism (Costa Rica)
Cap and trade market mechanism (Congo basin countries)
Satellite based continuous data collection (Japan)
Reference level based on historical changes in forest resources (Japan)
Nested baseline specific to different regions in a country (Nepal)
Incentive for C stocking and sequestration (Nepal)
Also address degradation of C stock within forest (Switzerland)
IPCC 4th Assessment Report
Share of different sectors in total anthropogenic GHG emissions in 2004 in terms of CO2 equivalent
• Energy Supply 25.9%
• Industry 19.4%
• Forestry 17.4%
• Agriculture 13.5• Residential and 7.9%
Commercial building
• Waste and Wastewater 2.8%
The Agenda of REDD• Agenda Item on “Reducing emissions from
deforestation in developing countries: Approaches to stimulate action” first presented in COP 11 Montreal (2005) in response to request of Papua New Guinea and Costa Rica
• COP11 invited parties and accredited observers to submit views on related issues and also to organize a workshop
Reducing emissions from deforestation in developing countries: Approaches to
stimulate actionUNFCCC sponsored Workshops: Rome: 30 Aug-1 Sept 2006, Cairns: 7-9 March 2007, Tokyo: 25-27 June 2008Followed by number of UN expert meetings
and consultations
S. No.
Countries Number of Countries
Area 1,000 ha Annual Change
1990 2005 1,000 ha/ year
%
1 Non Annex Countries with increasing forest cover and other wooded lands
27 443,092 479,624 2,436 +0.55
2 Non Annex Countries with decreasing forest cover and other wooded lands
74 2484,885 2283,436 13,430 - 0.54
3 Countries with negligible or No change
90 - - - -
Change in extent of Forest Cover and wooded lands 1990-2005
(Excluding Annex I Countries, Data Source: FAO, 2005)
This is a presentation from ICFRE
For Further Details Contact: [email protected]
Projected trend in forest cover under the current trend scenario (Source: Indian Institute of Science, 2006)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
8019
87
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
2031
Year
Fore
st C
over
(Mha
)
Projected Afforestation under current trend scenario
(Source: Indian Institute of Science, 2006)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1951
1961
1970
1979
1986
1992
1997
2000
2002
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
2027
2029
Year
Cum
ulat
ive
Area
Affo
rest
ed (M
ha)
Model based projection of carbon stocks in India’s forests and tree cover, as per studies of Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore (2006), estimates increase in carbon stocks as contained in the country’s forests from 8.79 GtC in 2005 to 9.75 GtC in 2030
Carbon Stock Projection: Indian Scenario
Compensation Claim: IndiaProposed policy approach of
Compensated Conservation seeks incentive for
1. Incremental stocks of 0.96 GtC between 2006-2030 (projected increase from 8.79 GtC in 2006 to 9.75 GtC in 2030)
2. Baseline stocks of 8.79 GtC as on 2006
11 High Forest Cover Countries
97.7 91.8 90.6 89.4 88.9 87.6 84.5 83.3 80 77.6 76.7
020406080
100120
Surina
m
French
Guia
na
Micron
esia
America
m Sam
oa
Seych
elles
Palau
Gabon
Pitcair
ns
Turks a
nd C
aicos
Islan
ds
Solomon
Islan
ds
Guyan
ae
Based on Policy Approaches and Practices
HFLD, LFLDCN, SMF
IFC+CN, SMF HFHD, LFHD
GLOBAL FOREST C STOCKS
CONSTANT STOCKS
CHANGING STOCKS
INCREMENTAL DECREMENTAL
HFLD: High Forest cover Low deforestationLFLD: Low Forest Cover Low deforestationIFC: Increase in forest coverCN: Forest ConservationSMF: Sustainable Management of Forests
HFHD: High Forest cover High DeforestationLFHD: Low Forest cover High Deforestation
State of Forest Carbon Stocks A fn of
CONSTANT STOCKScs
DECREMENTAL STOCKSDS
INCREMENTAL STOCKSIS
CO2
c
Constant Stocks HFLD, LFLD, CN, SMF
Decremental Stocks HFHD, LFHD
BaseLine
Action of HFLD, LFLD, CN, SMF for CS
Action of IFC, CN, SMF for IS
Action of HFHD, LFHD for DS
All actions are equally important in maintaining Global integrity of stocks
Comprehensive approach
All three (CS, IS, DS) contribute in state of forest carbon stocks
C
C
REDD Mechanism Beneficial to all Countries?Comprehensive Approach
(All Contributors to SFC Equally Important)
Incentives/compensation for all necessaryArguments for incentives/compensation
Constant stocks (HFLD, LFLD, CN, SMF)– Cost on management, opportunity cost of conversion to
more beneficial land useIncremental stocks (IFC, CN, SMF)– Cost on management, cost incurred in additional plantations,
revenue loss due to no or reduced loggingDecremental stocks (HFHD, LFHD)– Revenue loss due to reduced logging
Whether Comprehensive Mechanism is possible?
Once comprehensive approach is accepted which is logical (Bali was watershed)
• Inaccessible, undisturbed forests need to be counted provided costs on preserving their present state are incurred
• Conservation projects/areas would need to be counted against commitment for continuing policy of conservation
• It is not important what developed countries say but more important is logical comprehensive approach enshrined in BAP
• If FC, EFCS have a bearing on state of global forest carbon, these cannot be ignored
Model based projection of carbon stocks in India’s forests and tree cover, as per studies of Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore (2006), estimates increase in carbon stocks as contained in the country’s forests from 8.79 GtC in 2005 to 9.75 GtC in 2030
Carbon Stock Projection: Indian Scenario
Proposed policy approach of Compensated
Conservation seeks incentive for
1. incremental stocks of 0.96 GtC between
2006-2030 (projected increase from 8.79
GtC in 2006 to 9.75 GtC in 2030)
2. baseline stocks of 8.79 GtC as on 2006
Compensation Claim: India
Forest C Pool