• Retail Sales growing well– Long time until a return to trend but regular
growth should proceed from here on out
• Home Prices– Still Very Weak– Most revals will show falling values for the next
few years– I expect strong home price growth for NC over
the 5+ year horizon
13
The Overall Economy
• Actually Doing Decent Except for One Little Detail . . . No Jobs– Corporate Profits Back– Government Revenues Healing– Stock Market Rebounded– Home Prices (relatively) stable
14
Gross Domestic Product
15
Gross Domestic Product
16
Nonfinancial Corporate Profits
17
Financial Corporate Profits
18
Stock Prices
19
Unemployment
20
Employment - Trend
21
Employment - Trend
22
Employment – Monthly Gain/Loss
23
Credit Crisis
24
Balance Sheet
25
Manufacturing Employment
26
Trade Deficit
27
Construction Employment
28
Housing Starts
29
Housing Starts Per New Resident
30
Local Government Employment
31
State Government Employment
32
Federal Government Employment
33
Private Non-Goods Employment
34
Private Non-Goods Employment
35
Goods and Government Employment
36
Economic Summary
• Economy Recovering Slow but Steady– Employment lagging because of Construction,
Manufacturing and Government– Manufacturing: should level out for a bit but
downward trend likely– Construction: there is a boom out there
somewhere. When?– Government: Revenues have stabilized but