Karl Smith

Economic Update Summer 2011: Desperately Seeking Employment

The Economic Picture

1. Tax Bases

2. Overall Economya. Credit

b. Balance Sheet

c. Construction

d. Manufacturing

e. Government

2

Retail Sales – Year over Year

3

Retail Sales – Year over Year

4

Retail Sales – Year over Year

5

Retail Sales – Trend

6

Retail Sales – Trend

7

Retail Sales – Trend

8

Home Prices – Trend

9

Home Prices – Trend

10

Home Prices – Trend

11

Home Prices – Trend

12

Revenue Summary

• Retail Sales growing well– Long time until a return to trend but regular

growth should proceed from here on out

• Home Prices– Still Very Weak– Most revals will show falling values for the next

few years– I expect strong home price growth for NC over

the 5+ year horizon

13

The Overall Economy

• Actually Doing Decent Except for One Little Detail . . . No Jobs– Corporate Profits Back– Government Revenues Healing– Stock Market Rebounded– Home Prices (relatively) stable

14

Gross Domestic Product

15

Gross Domestic Product

16

Nonfinancial Corporate Profits

17

Financial Corporate Profits

18

Stock Prices

19

Unemployment

20

Employment - Trend

21

Employment - Trend

22

Employment – Monthly Gain/Loss

23

Credit Crisis

24

Balance Sheet

25

Manufacturing Employment

26

Trade Deficit

27

Construction Employment

28

Housing Starts

29

Housing Starts Per New Resident

30

Local Government Employment

31

State Government Employment

32

Federal Government Employment

33

Private Non-Goods Employment

34

Private Non-Goods Employment

35

Goods and Government Employment

36

Economic Summary

• Economy Recovering Slow but Steady– Employment lagging because of Construction,

Manufacturing and Government– Manufacturing: should level out for a bit but

downward trend likely– Construction: there is a boom out there

somewhere. When?– Government: Revenues have stabilized but

political climate may be for more downsizing

37

Gas Prices

38

Inflation

39