Karl StahlkopfVice President, Power
Delivery, EPRI
University of Wisconsin
October20, 2000
EPRI’s ISO Membership Package EPRI’s ISO Membership Package Power for a Digital Society Power for a Digital Society
KES 2
The Reliability ChallengeThe Reliability Challenge
• Process becoming more complex
• Increasing bulk power transactions strain grid capacity
• Grid expansion is not keeping up with growth
• Incentives for expansion are lacking
• Infrastructure needs to be upgraded
KES 3
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
1996 1997 1998 1999
TVA Interchange Transactions
Transactions Increasing ExponentiallyTransactions Increasing Exponentially
KES 4
Grid Expansion Not Keeping UpGrid Expansion Not Keeping Up
• Transmission expansion is less than half of demand growth and getting worse
• Distribution construction has fallen 10% in real terms over last decade
%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1988-98 1999-09
ElectricityDemand
TransmissionCapacityExpansion
KES 5
5,834 5,556
13,120
6,818
8,851
10,400
11,761
12,877
12,649
5,000
7,000
9,000
11,000
13,000
15,000
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
U.S. Transmission 10-Yr Plans* U.S. Transmission 10-Yr Plans*
Miles Added
Year
KES 6
Background: Problems Increasing
Background: Problems Increasing
1965 – November: Northeast blackout1977 – July: New York City blackout1994 – January: WSCC breakup (Northridge earthquake)
– December: WSCC breakup1996 – July 2: WSCC cascading outage
– August 10: WSCC cascading outage
1998 – June: MAPP breakup– July: Chicago (100,000 customers)
– July: Midwest price spikes to $10,000 MWh – December: San Francisco tripoff1999 – July: New York City (200,000 customers)
– July: Chicago (100,000 customers) – July: Midwest price spikes to $6,000 MWh
– August: Chicago (“Loop” business district) 2000 – May: PJM power voltage reductions and curtailments – May: New England price spikes to $6000 MWh
– June: California outages and price increases
KES 7
Rise of the Digital EconomyRise of the Digital Economy
• Phase 1 -- Computers
• Phase 2 -- Embedded processors– Now 30 times as many stand-alone chips as in computers
• Phase 3 -- Networks– One million Web sites– 200 million computers worldwide– E-commerce = 2% of American GDP
KES 8
Challenges for Electric PowerChallenges for Electric Power
• Quantity– IT alone accounts for 10-13% U.S. electricity consumption– 80% energy growth is being met by electricity
• Quality– Grid delivers 3-nines reliability (99.9% reliable)– Microprocessors require 9-nines reliability (99.9999999%)– Even brief outages can cost a company $ millions
KES 9
Rise of the Digital EconomyRise of the Digital Economy
13%50%
Digital Power
Analog Power
4
2
TkWh
1980 2000 2020
Demand for “digital quality” power is growing rapidly
KES 10
Two Reliability GoalsTwo Reliability Goals
• Increase transmission capacity and enhance reliability to support a stable wholesale power market
• Upgrade distribution infrastructure to support integration of low-cost power from transmission system with new DR options
Don’t try to Gold-Plate the Grid
KES 11
The Effect in Silicon ValleyThe Effect in Silicon Valley
• “The impact of momentary interruptions of power is extremely costly in terms of lost productivity and potentially damaged equipment at Oracle….Whether the electricity was free or cost three times as much would have absolutely no effect on the cost of our product.”
– Mike Wallach• “What is self-sufficiency worth to us [Oracle]? Millions of
dollars per hour.”– Jeff Byron
• “Sun Microsystems has estimated that a blackout costs up to $1 million per minute”
– Larry Owens, Silicon Valley Power
KES 12
Consumer Response: Market for Backup Power Takes Off
Consumer Response: Market for Backup Power Takes Off
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995
Source: Bechtel
Units Ordered Output GW9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
32%
Gro
wth R
ate
Annua
lly
Units Ordered
Total Output
1 MW Gen-Sets
KES 13
EPRI’s ResponseEPRI’s Response
• Short Term: Form the “Reliability Initiative”
• Long Term: Form the “Consortium for Electrical Infrastructure to Support a Digital Society” (CEIDS)
KES 14
Reliability InitiativeReliability Initiative
• Approximately $5.7 million raised so far
• 40 utilities have signed agreements
• 4 more are pending
• Further interest expected as word gets out
KES 15
Transmission System AssessmentsTransmission System Assessments
• Grid complexity requires new analytical approach
• Probability Risk Assessment (PRA) effective for analyzing multiple factors in complex systems
• PRA beta-test led to modifications
• Grid reliability study of two of three Interconnections– In close cooperation with NERC-RAS
KES 16
Distribution System AssessmentsDistribution System Assessments
• Systems differ greatly in architecture, equipment, and operations; therefore representative systems will be analyzed using deterministic methods
– Urban radial, largely underground (ComEd)– Urban network, largely underground (ConEd)– Urban/suburban radial, largely overhead (DQE)– Suburban, combined overhead & underground (Duke)
KES 17
Digital Society InitiativeDigital Society Initiative
• Form a “Consortium for Electrical Infrastructure to Support a Digital Society” (CEIDS)
• Structure of Initiative based on broad industry participation– Users of “Digital Electricity”– Equipment Suppliers/Vendors– Electric Utilities
KES 18
CEIDS InitiativeCEIDS Initiative
• Form Consortium early in 2001
• Goals– Raise $20 Million from Private Sector– Seek matching Public Sector Funding– Initiate a research program to insure that
“digital quality” electricity can be made available at a reasonable cost
KES 19
Meeting the Reliability ChallengeMeeting the Reliability Challenge
A combination of technologies will be required
9-nines
6-nines
3-nines
Po
wer
rel
iab
ilit
y
(Log
arith
mic
Sca
le)
To the Chip
To the Plug
To Customer Premises
UPS under desk
Capacitor on circuit board
UPS Substation
PQ Park
On-Site DR
Grid Technologies