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Lecture 23: The Rise of China
1. Historical Background
2. Power Transition Theory
3. Recent Chinese Growth
4. American-Chinese Relations: Sources of Conflict
5. Regional Stability in Asia
6. Will China Become a Democracy?
7. Student Questions
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Historical Background
1911
19491950
1966
1972
2001
1978
End of the Ch’ing Dynasty (1644-1911)
Mao’s Communist VictoryIntervention in the Korean War (November)
Instability, Revolts,Invasions, and Civil War
1976
Cultural Revolution
Decay of Chinese-Soviet Relations
Death of MaoNixon Plays the “China Card”
1969 Soviet-Chinese Border Clashes
“Market Reforms” Begin Slowly
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A Success Story
Average Annual Time Period % Growth1960-1978 (pre-reform) 5.31979-1999 (post-reform) 9.7
1991 9.31992 14.21993 13.51994 12.71995 10.51996 9.71997 8.81998 7.81999 7.12000 (Jan-June) 8.2Source: Morrison 2000
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Power Transition Theory
GROSSNATIONALPRODUCT POWER TRANSITION POINT
TIME
THE CROSS OVER POINT
TIME
The Within Country Power Transition
The Between Country Power Transition
GROSSNATIONALPRODUCT
RISING CHALLENGER
DECLINING HEGEMON
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Two Key Questions
Will ChinaSurpass
the U.S.?
Is ChinaDissatisfied?
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Measuring Size and Growth Rate
Problem #1: How Big Is The Chinese Economy?
Problem #2: How Fast Will It Grow?
Nominal GDP Nominal PPPCountry GDP $B PPP $B GDP GDP--------- -------- ------- per capita per capitaU.S. 9,234 9,234 33,835 33,835Japan 4,370 2,935 34,519 23,465Germany 2,111 1,748 25,694 21,841China 997 5,201 790 4,228
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The Power Transition (US 3% and China 6%)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
GN
P $
tril
lio
n (
PP
P)
US
China
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Transitions and Conflict
Will ChinaSurpass
the U.S.?
Is ChinaDissatisfied?
Yes, But China Starts Out Significantly Behind the U.S.
Yes, But a Moderately Long Lead Time Exists
Yes: Rejects World Run by Capitalists & Democrats
Yes: Demands Prestige (or its “Place in the Sun”)
Yes: Supports Revolutionary Forces Abroad
No: Not Territorially Expansionist
No: Increasingly Integrated in International System
No: Needs Investment, Trade, and Technology
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Source: U.S. Embassy in China, Trade & Investment Briefing
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Hong Kong
Japan
USATaiwan Other
Singapore
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Sources of U.S.-China Conflict:
• Trade
• Human Rights
• Taiwan
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Sources of U.S.-China Conflict: Trade
• Growing U.S. Trade Deficit With China
1999: U.S. Exports to China: $13.12
1999: U.S. Imports From China: $87.78
• Will Chinese Membership in the WTO Lessen Conflict?
a) Regime Will Encourage China to Cooperate
b) WTO is Impartial Monitor
c) Concessions are to a Third Party
d) Keeps Conflict from Spreading
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Sources of U.S.-China Conflict: Human Rights
• Tiananmen Square (June 1989) & Response
• Chinese Perspective: Question of Sovereignty
• American Perspective: Moral Obligation
-- Idealism
-- President Carter: Shift in U.S. Policy
-- New International Norm: Protecting Human Rights
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Sources of U.S.-China Conflict: Taiwan
• Legacy of Civil War & 1949 Communist Victory
• Korean War Links U.S. to Defense of Taiwan
• Series of “Taiwan Straits Crises” During the Cold War
• U.S. Establishes Bi-Lateral Relations with PRC in 1979
• Recent Democratization of Taiwan
• Military and Economic Costs of a Chinese Invasion
• Can the U.S. Deter China in Any Way?
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Regional Stability: China’s Relations with its Neighbors
• Long History of Conflict
• 1980’s: Chinese Cuts in Defense Spending
• 1990’s: Defense Build Up Begins
a) Reorder Defense Focus
b) Impact of the Persian Gulf War
c) Typical Patter for a Developing Country
d) Buy Off the Military
• Response to Buildup: Private Alarm & Public Appeasement
• China’s Biggest Fear: A Re-Armed Japan
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A Comment on the Build-Up
• In Percentage Terms, the Build-Up is Alarming
• But Percentages can be Misleading
U.S.China
GDP(U.S.$t)
DefenseSpending(U.S.$b)
Defenseas a % of GDP
8.54.4
26736
3%1%
1998 Estimates from CIA Fact Book; CIA states that official Chinese Defense Spending is $12b; IISS estimates it at $36b
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Will China Become A Democracy?
• Tiananmen Square 1989
• General Hypothesis:
Economic Development ---(+)---> Political Development
• Optimists:
-- Seeds of Democracy Have Been Planted
• Pessimists:
a) Low GNP per Capita
b) Exchange Economic Rewards for Political Silence
c) Peasants are Conservative Majority
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Conclusions
• Tremendous Social & Economic Change in China
• Important Implications for the Distribution of Power
• Navigating Will Be Difficult But Not Impossible