lecture 23: the rise of china 1. historical background 2. power transition theory 3. recent chinese...
TRANSCRIPT
Lecture 23: The Rise of China
1. Historical Background
2. Power Transition Theory
3. Recent Chinese Growth
4. American-Chinese Relations: Sources of Conflict
5. Regional Stability in Asia
6. Will China Become a Democracy?
7. Student Questions
Historical Background
1911
19491950
1966
1972
2001
1978
End of the Ch’ing Dynasty (1644-1911)
Mao’s Communist VictoryIntervention in the Korean War (November)
Instability, Revolts,Invasions, and Civil War
1976
Cultural Revolution
Decay of Chinese-Soviet Relations
Death of MaoNixon Plays the “China Card”
1969 Soviet-Chinese Border Clashes
“Market Reforms” Begin Slowly
A Success Story
Average Annual Time Period % Growth1960-1978 (pre-reform) 5.31979-1999 (post-reform) 9.7
1991 9.31992 14.21993 13.51994 12.71995 10.51996 9.71997 8.81998 7.81999 7.12000 (Jan-June) 8.2Source: Morrison 2000
Power Transition Theory
GROSSNATIONALPRODUCT POWER TRANSITION POINT
TIME
THE CROSS OVER POINT
TIME
The Within Country Power Transition
The Between Country Power Transition
GROSSNATIONALPRODUCT
RISING CHALLENGER
DECLINING HEGEMON
Two Key Questions
Will ChinaSurpass
the U.S.?
Is ChinaDissatisfied?
Measuring Size and Growth Rate
Problem #1: How Big Is The Chinese Economy?
Problem #2: How Fast Will It Grow?
Nominal GDP Nominal PPPCountry GDP $B PPP $B GDP GDP--------- -------- ------- per capita per capitaU.S. 9,234 9,234 33,835 33,835Japan 4,370 2,935 34,519 23,465Germany 2,111 1,748 25,694 21,841China 997 5,201 790 4,228
The Power Transition (US 3% and China 6%)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year
GN
P $
tril
lio
n (
PP
P)
US
China
Transitions and Conflict
Will ChinaSurpass
the U.S.?
Is ChinaDissatisfied?
Yes, But China Starts Out Significantly Behind the U.S.
Yes, But a Moderately Long Lead Time Exists
Yes: Rejects World Run by Capitalists & Democrats
Yes: Demands Prestige (or its “Place in the Sun”)
Yes: Supports Revolutionary Forces Abroad
No: Not Territorially Expansionist
No: Increasingly Integrated in International System
No: Needs Investment, Trade, and Technology
Source: U.S. Embassy in China, Trade & Investment Briefing
Hong Kong
Japan
USATaiwan Other
Singapore
Sources of U.S.-China Conflict:
• Trade
• Human Rights
• Taiwan
Sources of U.S.-China Conflict: Trade
• Growing U.S. Trade Deficit With China
1999: U.S. Exports to China: $13.12
1999: U.S. Imports From China: $87.78
• Will Chinese Membership in the WTO Lessen Conflict?
a) Regime Will Encourage China to Cooperate
b) WTO is Impartial Monitor
c) Concessions are to a Third Party
d) Keeps Conflict from Spreading
Sources of U.S.-China Conflict: Human Rights
• Tiananmen Square (June 1989) & Response
• Chinese Perspective: Question of Sovereignty
• American Perspective: Moral Obligation
-- Idealism
-- President Carter: Shift in U.S. Policy
-- New International Norm: Protecting Human Rights
Sources of U.S.-China Conflict: Taiwan
• Legacy of Civil War & 1949 Communist Victory
• Korean War Links U.S. to Defense of Taiwan
• Series of “Taiwan Straits Crises” During the Cold War
• U.S. Establishes Bi-Lateral Relations with PRC in 1979
• Recent Democratization of Taiwan
• Military and Economic Costs of a Chinese Invasion
• Can the U.S. Deter China in Any Way?
Regional Stability: China’s Relations with its Neighbors
• Long History of Conflict
• 1980’s: Chinese Cuts in Defense Spending
• 1990’s: Defense Build Up Begins
a) Reorder Defense Focus
b) Impact of the Persian Gulf War
c) Typical Patter for a Developing Country
d) Buy Off the Military
• Response to Buildup: Private Alarm & Public Appeasement
• China’s Biggest Fear: A Re-Armed Japan
A Comment on the Build-Up
• In Percentage Terms, the Build-Up is Alarming
• But Percentages can be Misleading
U.S.China
GDP(U.S.$t)
DefenseSpending(U.S.$b)
Defenseas a % of GDP
8.54.4
26736
3%1%
1998 Estimates from CIA Fact Book; CIA states that official Chinese Defense Spending is $12b; IISS estimates it at $36b
Will China Become A Democracy?
• Tiananmen Square 1989
• General Hypothesis:
Economic Development ---(+)---> Political Development
• Optimists:
-- Seeds of Democracy Have Been Planted
• Pessimists:
a) Low GNP per Capita
b) Exchange Economic Rewards for Political Silence
c) Peasants are Conservative Majority
Conclusions
• Tremendous Social & Economic Change in China
• Important Implications for the Distribution of Power
• Navigating Will Be Difficult But Not Impossible