Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Projecting not Predicting
Projecting Not Predicting – How external influences can impact
Adam PeacockPrincipal Development Officer - Research
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Projecting not Predicting
This presentation will cover:
• What do population projections tell us?
• Population projections over time
• Examples of how external influences can impact on population projections
• Using local intelligence to inform existing projections
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Projecting not Predicting
Population Projections
• A projection is a view of something in the future, based on present data or trends.
• Provide us with a view of our population if current trends were set to continue
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Projecting not Predicting
• Key input to long-term fiscal projections
• Future expenditure on benefits and pensions
• Key input for analysis on policy areas such as extending working lives
• Future school pupil numbers
• Resource planning and healthcare provision
• Key input to official household projections
• Grant formulation to local authorities
• Academic researchers, private companies for market research
What are projections used for?
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Projecting not Predicting
• Latest mid-year population estimates as a starting point
• The population is aged on (apart from the armed forces population)
• A projected number of births is added on
• A projected number of deaths are subtracted
• Adjustment made for projected net migration
How are the projections produced?
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Projecting not Predicting
Projection Assumptions
• Recent trends in fertility, mortality and migration will continue
• Built on an average of five years of historic local level data
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Projecting not Predicting
Assumption Sources
Assumption SourceBirth and death rates
Civil Registration System
Internal migration
Patient Data Register System
Student moves Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA)
International migration
- International passenger Survey
- Labour Force Survey
- Home Office
- National Asylum Support Services
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Projecting not Predicting
Latest Population ProjectionLincolnshire Projection Population 2008 - 2033
838,200 (21%)
411,100 (3%)
256,500 (84%)
170,700 (8%)
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Projecting not Predicting
Local Population Projections Over Time
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
2033
Po
pu
lati
on
(0
00
's)
2003 based
2004 based
2006 based
2008 based
Projected Lincolnshire Population, 2003 - 2033
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Projecting not Predicting
National Population Projections Over TimeProjected Population, 2003 - 2035
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Projecting not Predicting
Difference in Projected UK Population at 2005 by component, selected projections
National Population Projections Over Time
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Projecting not Predicting
Projections are not forecasts
They do not attempt to predict the impact of:
- Changing economic circumstances
- Future government policies (whether in the UK or overseas)
They also take no account of the capacity of areas to accommodate population
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Projecting not Predicting
Changing Economic Circumstances
Over 70,000 people
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Projecting not Predicting
Projected and Estimated Population for Lincoln City
3,000 people
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Projecting not Predicting
Lincoln City 16 – 24 Population
10,600 16 -24 year olds
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Projecting not Predicting
Putting this into Practice
• Growth points
• Current economic conditions
• Lincoln Eastern Bypass
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Projecting not Predicting
What does this tell us and what can we do?
• Demographic behaviour is inherently uncertain
• Act with a knowledge of the likely limitations of population projections
• Use local intelligence and knowledge
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Projecting not Predicting
Estimated and Projected Population of the UK 2000 - 2035
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Projecting not Predicting
What does this tell us and what can we do?
• Demographic behaviour is inherently uncertain
• Act with a knowledge of the likely limitations of population projections
• Use local intelligence and knowledge and apply it to nationally produced local level population projections
• Consider alternative future views of Lincolnshire’s population
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Projecting not Predicting
Housing Scenarios
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Projecting not Predicting
Migration Scenarios
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Projecting not Predicting
Jobs Scenario
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Projecting not Predicting
Ageing Population
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Projecting not Predicting
So what have we covered?• What projections tell us about the future
population
• How these projections are produced and the assumptions used
• Populations projections are just that – a projection
• Some alternative scenarios of population growth in Lincolnshire
Lincolnshire Research Observatory www.research-lincs.org.uk
Projecting not Predicting
Any Questions?