Download - M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes. Z. Klimont, W. Sch öpp, W. Winiwarter
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M. Amann, I. Bertok, J. Cofala, F. Gyarfas, C. Heyes.
Z. Klimont, W. Schöpp, W. Winiwarter
The CAFE baseline scenarios:
Key findings
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Anthropogenic contribution to PM2.5
2000 2010 2020
Rural concentrations, annual mean [µg/m3]from known anthropogenic sources excluding sec. org. aerosols Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
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Loss in life expectancyattributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]
Loss in average statistical life expectancy due to identified anthropogenic PM2.5Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
2000 2010 2020
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Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]
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2000 2010 2020
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Health-relevant ozone concentrations[SOMO35, ppb.days]
2000 2010 2020
Rural concentrations Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
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Premature deaths attributable to ozone[cases/year]
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2000 2010 2020
Provisional calculations with 50*50 km resolution
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Acid deposition to forests
Percentage of forest areawith acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition, Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
2000 2010 2020
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Percent of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads
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2000 2010 2020
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Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems including HABITAT areas
Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystemswith acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
2000 2010 2020
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Semi-natural ecosystemswith acid deposition above critical loads [km2]
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France Germany Ireland Netherlands UK
2000 2010 2020
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Excess of critical loads for eutrophication
Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads, using grid-average deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies
2000 2010 2020
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Aus
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2000 2010 2020
Percent of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads for eutrophication
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Conclusions
• With decreasing pollution, also impacts are expected to decline in the future.
• However, problems will not be entirely resolved:
– PM remains serious (~5 months life expectancy loss in 2020)
– Ozone:
• Remains a significant cause for premature deaths (Several 1000 cases in 2020)
• Vegetation damage: Wide-spread violations of AOT40 critical level will prevail
– Acidification: Will not disappear, mainly due to NH3
– Eutrophication remains unresolved
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SO2 emissions by sector“With climate measures” scenario [kt]
EU-15
NewMember
States
Power generation Industry Domestic Transport Agriculture Industrial processes
NEC emission ceiling
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2000 2005 2010 2015 20200
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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
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NOx emissions by sector“With climate measures” scenario [kt]
EU-15
New Member
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Power generation Industry Domestic Transport Agriculture Industrial processes
NEC emission ceiling
0
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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
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NOx emissions “With climate measures” scenario, EU-25
Power generationPower generation
Industrial combustionIndustrial combustion
Industrial processesIndustrial processes
Domestic
DomesticGasoline cars
Gasoline cars
Diesel carsDiesel cars
Off-road
Diesel heavy duty veh.
Diesel heavy duty veh.
Off-road
0%
25%
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100%
2000 2020
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VOC emissions“With climate measures” scenario [kt]
EU-15
New Member
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Power generation Industry HouseholdsTransport Agriculture Solvents Waste National Emission Ceilings
0
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2000 2005 2010 2015 20200
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NH3 emissions “Pre-CAP reform” scenario [kt]
EU-15
NewMember
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Power generation Industry Domestic Transport Agriculture Industrial processes
NEC emission ceiling
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2000 2005 2010 2015 20200
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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
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PM2.5 emissions by sector “With climate measures” scenario [kt]
EU-15
NewMember
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Power generation Industry Domestic Transport Agriculture Industrial processes
NEC emission ceiling
0
300
600
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1200
1500
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
0
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2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
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Contribution to primary PM2.5 emissions “With climate measures” scenario, EU-15
Industrial combustionIndustrial combustion
Industrial processesIndustrial processes
Diesel exhaust, cars
Diesel exhaust, carsDiesel exhaust, HDT
Non-exhaust Non-exhaust
Off-road Off-road
Agriculture Agriculture
Domestic, wood stoves
Domestic, wood stoves
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2000 2020
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Conclusions
• While accounting for continued economic growth …
• National emissions of air pollutants will decrease up to 2020: SO2 -65%, NOx-50%, VOC -45%, NH3 -4%, PM2.5 -45%
• Due to structural changes and emission control legislation
• Relevance of sectors for further measures will change.
– Small combustion sources!
– Industrial processes, solvents!
– Off-road vehicles and machinery!
• Emissions from maritime activities will surpass land-based emissions of EU-25