http://gains.iiasa.ac.at progress in the development of national baseline scenarios m. amann, j....
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http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
Progress in the development of national baseline scenarios
M. Amann, J. Borken, J. Cofala, Z. KlimontInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Working Group on Strategies, Geneva, April 12-15, 2010
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
Contents
• Available scenarios
• Comparison of base year emission inventories
• Key assumptions in national projections
• Environmental impacts
• Conclusions
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
Data sources of draft national projections for Gothenburg Protocol revision: energy
National scenarios IEA WEO 2009 PRIMES 2008 C&E (NEC report #6)
Austria (transport only) Albania Belgium Latvia
Croatia Belarus Bulgaria Lithuania
Czech Republic Bosnia-H. Cyprus Luxembourg
Denmark Moldova Estonia Malta
Finland Russia France Poland
Greece Serbia Germany Romania
Ireland Ukraine Hungary Slovakia
Italy Turkey Slovenia
Netherlands TFYROM (PRIMES2009)
Norway
Portugal
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
UK
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
Data sources of draft national projections for Gothenburg Protocol revision:Agricultural projections
National scenarios FAO outlook 2003 CAPRI 2009 projections
Austria Belarus Belgium Latvia
Croatia Moldova Bulgaria Lithuania
Finland Russia Cyprus Luxembourg
Ireland Turkey Czech Republic Malta
Italy Ukraine Denmark Norway
Netherlands Estonia Poland
Romania France Slovenia
Slovakia Germany Portugal
Spain Hungary
Sweden Greece
Switzerland
UK
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
Review process
• Activity data, emission factors and resulting emissions were prepared for review:
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/index.php/policyapplications/gothenburg-protocol-revision
• Additional comments and material sent by 18 countries have been implemented by February 2010.
• Most countries that have sent national scenarios provided also info on control strategies (e.g., national interpretation of flexibilities in the Commission's proposal for IED).
• Transport emission factors and assumptions about turnover for all EU and EFTA countries based on COPERT IV model.
• Further feedbacks invited for March 15, but many countries commented after this date. Not all of these comments are already implemented.
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
State of play on country comments
No. Country Last comments Status
1 Austria 24.03. Not implemented (sent data on activities and em. factors but not in GAINS format)
2 Belgium 17.03 Implemented
3 Croatia 19.03. Not implemented (suggested further corrections to control strategies)
4 Czech Rep. 23.03. Not implemented (suggested corrections to PM emission factors)
5 Finland 03.03. Implemented
6 France 24.03. Implemented (IIASA responded, no concrete suggestions for changes)
7 Greece 26.03. Not implemented (suggested further corrections to em. factors and control strategies)
8 Hungary 24.03. Not implemented (sent data on activities and em. factors but not in GAINS format)
9 Ireland 16.03. Implemented
10 Malta 23.03. Implemented (IIASA responded, no concrete suggestions for changes)
11 Norway 17.03. Implemented
12 Portugal 02.02. Implemented
13 Romania 01.04. Not implemented (sent projection of coal use in the power sector)
14 Slovakia 23.03. Not implemented (sent inconsistent national energy scenario - large discrepancies with statistics)
15 Spain 23.03. Not implemented (not analyzed: newest em. inventory and comparison with national projection)
16 Sweden 22.03. Implemented
17 Switzerland 17.03 Implemented
18 UK 31.03. Implemented
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
Base year inventory for 2005
For many countries there are disagreements between national and IEA energy statistics
• Two versions in GAINS:– National scenario: use of national statistics– PRIMES scenario: use of IEA/PRIMES statistics
There are differences between national inventories reported to CEIP and GAINS estimates– National inventories are moving targets
as national inventories for 2000 and 2005 keep changing– Main reasons for disagreement:
• Different energy/activity statistics• Missing sources in national inventories• GAINS uses COPERT emission factors• Insufficient communication with national experts
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
Emission estimates for 2000 and 2005GAINS estimates (draft) vs. CEIP Aug2009 inventoryPROVISIONAL RESULTS
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
AT
BE
BU
CY
CZ
DE
DK EE
ES FI FR GR
HU IE IT LT LU LV MT
NL
PL
PT
RO SE
SK SL
UK
CH IS NO AL
BH BY
CR
MD
MK
RS
RU TK
UA
Em
issio
ns r
ela
tive t
o C
EIP
in
ven
tory
2000 PRIMES2009 2005 PRIMES2009 2000 National 2005 National
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
AT
BE
BU
CY
CZ
DE
DK EE
ES FI FR GR
HU IE IT LT LU LV MT
NL
PL
PT
RO SE
SK SL
UK
CH IS NO AL
BH BY
CR
MD
MK
RS
RU TK
UA
Em
issio
ns r
ela
tive t
o C
EIP
in
ven
tory
2000 PRIMES2009 2005 PRIMES2009 2000 National 2005 National
SO2 NOx
NH3 VOC0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
AT
BE
BU
CY
CZ
DK EE FI FR DE
GR
HU IE IT LV LT LU MT
NL
PL
PT
RO SK SL
ES
SE
UK
CH
NO AL
BY
BH
CR
MK M
RU
RS
TK
UA
Em
issio
ns r
ela
tive t
o C
EIP
in
ven
tory
2000 PRIMES2009 2005 PRIMES2009 2000 National 2005 National
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
AT
BE
BG CY
CZ
DE
DK EE
ES FI FR GR
HU IE IT LT LU LV MT
NL
PL
PT
RO SE
SK SL
UK
CH N AL
BH BY
CR M
MK
RS
RU TK
UA
Em
issio
ns r
ela
tive t
o C
EIP
in
ven
tory
2000 PRIMES2009 2005 PRIMES2009 2000 National 2005 National
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
PM2.5 emission estimates for 2000 and 2005GAINS estimates (draft) vs. CEIP Aug2009 inventoryPROVISIONAL RESULTS
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
AT
BE
BU
CY
CZ
DE
DK EE
ES FI FR GR
HU IE IT LT LU LV MT
NL
PL
PT
RO SE
SK SL
UK
CH IS NO AL
BH BY
CR
MD
MK
RS
RU TK
UA
Em
issio
ns r
ela
tive t
o C
EIP
in
ven
tory
2000 PRIMES2009 2005 PRIMES2009 2000 National 2005 National
PM2.5
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
Comparison of assumed GDP growthbetween 2005 and 2020
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
CZ
RE
DEN
M
ES
TO
GR
EE
IRE
L
ITA
L
NETH
NO
RW
SPA
I
SW
ED
SW
IT
UN
KI
GD
P2
02
0 r
ela
tive t
o 2
00
5
C&E2008 National PRIMES2009
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
Comparison of oil prices assumed in national scenarios for 2020
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
CZ DK FI GR IE IT NL NO PT ES SE CH UK
Oil p
rice a
ssu
med
for
20
20
(U
S-$
/b
arr
el)
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
Comparison of carbon prices assumed for 2020National scenarios vs. PRIMES C&E package
0
10
20
30
40
50
CZ DK FI GR IE IT NL NO PT ES SE CH UK
Carb
on
pri
ce (
€/t
CO
2)
National scenario PRIMES C&E package
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
Baseline emission projections
National projections:• Energy
1. National scenarios, if available
2. PRIMES 2008 Climate & Energy Package, if available
3. IEA World Energy Outlook 2009
• Agriculture1. National agricultural
projections, if available2. CAPRI projections3. FAO 2008 projections
PRIMES 2009 baseline (basis for envisaged NEC proposal):
• Energy1. PRIMES 2009 baseline, if
available (current national energy and energy policies, no full achievement of C&E package targets)
2. IEA World Energy Outlook 2009
• Agriculture1. CAPRI projections2. FAO 2008 projections
+ Current policies on air pollution (national policies + advanced EU proposals)
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
Assumed GDP growthin National and PRIMES scenarios
NO
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
0% 100% 200% 300%
GDP increase in National scenario
GD
P incr
ease
in
PR
IMES
200
9
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
AU
ST
BELG
BU
LG
CYPR
CZ
RE
DEN
M
ES
TO
FIN
L
FRA
N
GER
M
GR
EE
HU
NG
IRE
L
ITA
L
LATV
LITH
LUX
E
MA
LT
NETH
NO
R
PO
LA
PO
RT
RO
MA
SK
RE
SLO
V
SPA
I
SW
ED
SW
IT
UN
KI
GD
P2
02
0 r
ela
tive t
o 2
00
5
National PRIMES2009
National scenarios assume higher GDP growth than PRIMES2009
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
Baseline emissions projections for 2020PROVISIONAL RESULTS
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
EU Non-EU
EU Non-EU
EU Non-EU
EU Non-EU
EU Non-EU
SO2 NOx NH3 VOC PM2.5
Em
issio
ns r
ela
tive t
o 2
00
0
2020 National 2020 PRIMES
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
Baseline emission projections for 2020SO2 PROVISIONAL RESULTS
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
AT
BE
BG CY
CZ
DE
DK EE
ES FI FR GR
HU IE IT LT LU LV MT
NL
PL
PT
RO SE
SK SL
UK
EU
CH
NO AL
BH BY
CR
MD
MK
RS
RU TK
UA
Em
issio
ns r
ela
tive t
o 2
00
0
National projection PRIMES2009
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
AT
BE
BG CY
CZ
DE
DK EE
ES FI FR GR
HU IE IT LT LU LV MT
NL
PL
PT
RO SE
SK SL
UK
EU
CH
NO AL
BG BY
CR
MD
MK
RS
RU TK
UA
Em
issio
ns r
ela
tive t
o 2
00
0
National projection PRIMES2009
Baseline emission projections for 2020NOx PROVISIONAL RESULTS
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
AT
BE
BU
CY
CZ
DE
DK EE
ES FI FR GR
HU IE IT LT LU LV MT
NL
PL
PT
RO SE
SK SL
UK
EU
CH
NO AL
BG BY
CR
MD
MK
RS
RU TK
UA
Em
issio
ns r
ela
tive t
o 2
00
0
National projection PRIMES2009
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
Baseline emission projections for 2020NH3 PROVISIONAL RESULTS
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%A
TB
EB
G CY
CZ
DE
DK EE
ES FI FR GR
HU IE IT LT LU LV MT
NL
PL
PT
RO SE
SK SL
UK
EU
CH
NO AL
BH BY
CR
MD
MK
RS
RU TK
UA
Em
issio
ns r
ela
tive t
o 2
00
0
National projection PRIMES2009
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
AT
BE
BG CY
CZ
DK EE FI FR DE
GR
HU IE IT LV LT LU MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SK SL
ES
SE
UK
EU
CH
NO AL
BY
BH
CR
MK M
RU
RS
TK
UA
Em
issio
ns r
ela
tive t
o 2
00
0
National projection PRIMES2009
Baseline emission projections for 2020VOC PROVISIONAL RESULTS
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
AT
BE
BU
CY
CZ
DK EE FI FR DE
GR
HU IE IT LV LT LU MT
NL
PL
PT
RO
SK SL
ES
SE
UK
EU
CH
NO AL
BY
BH
CR
MK M
RU
RS
TK
UA
Em
issio
ns r
ela
tive t
o 2
00
0
National projection PRIMES2009
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
AT
BE
BG CY
CZ
DE
DK EE
ES FI FR GR
HU IE IT LT LU LV MT
NL
PL
PT
RO SE
SK SL
UK
EU
CH
NO AL
BH BY
CR
MD
MK
RS
RU TK
UA
Em
issio
ns r
ela
tive t
o 2
00
0
National projection PRIMES2009
Baseline emission projections for 2020PM2.5 PROVISIONAL RESULTS
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
AT
BE
BG CY
CZ
DE
DK EE
ES FI FR GR
HU IE IT LT LU LV MT
NL
PL
PT
RO SE
SK SL
UK
EU
CH
NO AL
BH BY
CR
MD
MK
RS
RU TK
UA
Em
issio
ns r
ela
tive t
o 2
00
0
National projection PRIMES2009
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
Loss in statistical life expectancyPROVISIONAL RESULTS
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
AT
BE
BG CY
CZ
DE
DK EE
ES FI FR GR
HU IE IT LT LU LV MT
NL
PL
PT
RO SE
SK SL
UK
EU
NO
CH AL
BY
BH
CR
MK M
RU
RS
UA
Loss in
sta
tisti
cal life
exp
ecta
ncy (
mon
ths)
2000 National PRIMES
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
Excess of CL for acidification in forest soilsPROVISIONAL RESULTS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
AT
BE
BG CY
CZ
DE
DK EE
ES FI FR GR
HU IE IT LT LU LV NL
PL
PT
RO SE
SK SL
UK
EU
CH
NO AL
BH BY
CR M
MK
RS
RU
UA
Fore
st
are
a w
here
CL(a
cid
) are
exceed
ed
2000 National PRIMES
http://gains.iiasa.ac.at
Conclusions
• National projections received from 18 countries.
• There are differences in statistical data for 2000 and 2005 between national and international statistics. Implications for emission ceilings?
• National scenarios do not employ internationally coherent assumptions on economic development, climate policy, oil prices, etc.
• While for some countries differences in emission projections between national projections and PRIMES2009 are significant, differences in calculated environmental impacts are limited.