iiasa international institute for applied systems analysis (iiasa) emission inventories and...
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IIASA
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
Emission Inventories and Projectionsof NOx, NH3, and NMVOC in East Asia
Z. Klimont
The 4th Workshop on the Transport of Air Pollutants in Asia (Model Intercomparison Study – MICS-Asia)
October 22 – 23, 2001IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria
IIASA
This project was developed in connection with:
A study of large scale environmental problems in East Asia, funded by the Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry (CRIEPI)
The China-MAP program, funded by the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration) NASA.
IIASA
Results are published in:
Klimont, Z., Cofala, J., Schoepp, W., Amann, M., Streets, D.G., Ichikawa, Y., Fujita, S. (2001) Projections of SO2, NOx, NH3, and VOC Emissions in East Asia up to 2030. Water, Air, and Soil Pollution, vol.130:193-198
Klimont, Z., Streets, D.G., Gupta, S., Cofala, J., Fu, L., Ichikawa, Y. (2002) Anthropogenic emissions of non-methane volatile organic compounds in China. Atmospheric Environment (accepted for publication)
Klimont, Z. (2001) Current and Future Emissions of Ammonia in China. Proceedings of the 10th International Emission Inventory Conference “One Atmosphere, One Inventory, Many Challenges”, Denver, CO, April 30 – May 3rd, 2001. Paper available at: http://www.epa.gov/ttn/chief/conference/ei10/index.html
TRACE-P…emission data sets available…
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Spatial* and temporal resolution
Japan - Prefectures aggregated into six regions
China - Provinces and megacities (incl. Hong-Kong)
Republic of Korea - provinces aggregated into four regions
Taiwan, ROC; Mongolia; DPR of Korea - country
Russia - six Southern Siberian provinces ‘Oblast’
* - results presented in 1x1 degree grid
Annual emissions- historical years 1990 and 1995
- projections for 2000, 2010, 2020 and 2030
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Sectoral resolution
NOx - five major economic sectors, further split into 17
categories) and 17 types of fuel;
NH3 - 14 categories; additionally, for seven livestock
types emissions estimated at the ‘housing’ and ‘grazing’ stages.
NMVOC - six primary sectors, further split into 42 to 61 secondary sectors (fuel combustion related sectors distinguish additionally relevant fuel types);
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Methodology
where:
k,l,m,n - province, sector, fuel, abatement technology;
E(P) - emissions of pollutant P, i.e. NOx, NMVOC ;
A - activity rate;
ef - unabated emission factor;
- removal efficiency;
- maximum application rate, and
X - actual application rate of control technology n.
XefAPEn
nmlknmlknmlmlkmlkml
k ,,,,,,,,,,,, )1( )(
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Methodology (NH3)
where:
i,j,k,l,m - province, animal type, abatement, year, fertilizer type;
s - four stages, i.e. animal house, storage, application, grazing;
L - animal population [thousands head];
FC - fertilizer consumption [Gg N/year];
FP - fertilizer production [Gg N/year];
ef - emission factor [kg NH3/animal; kg NH3/Mg N-fert.produced);
nf - nitrogen loss per fertilizer [% of N content/100];
- removal efficiency;
X - implementation rate of the abatement technique.
OSFPefFCnfXefLNHEm
lmimilmimis
lkjiskisljikj
ljli
])14/17([])1([ )( ,,,,,,
4
1,,,,,,,,,,3
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Activity data: Energy and Traffic
Energy database: Based on the RAINS-Asia project
Traffic:• Total fuel consumption based on the vehicle ownership
and mileage forecasts (also verified against national and international statistics);
• Mode/fuel split derived from available statistical data and experts’ judgment;
• Newly developed forecast takes into account differences in future regional developments.
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Activity data: Industry and other VOC related
Data for 1990, 1995– distribution, processing and combustion of fuels linked to
energy database in RAINS-Asia;– industry: national and international yearbooks, industrial
statistics, surrogate statistics (problems with spatial distribution);
– domestic solvent use, paint use, dry cleaning, industrial glue application, printing, degreasing: expert estimates, comparison to Europe and US, spatial distribution based on surrogate statistics, e.g. population, vehicle ownership.
– missing data: pharmaceutical industry, parts of chemical industry.
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Activity data: Industry and other… continued
Projections:– distribution, processing and combustion of fuels linked to
energy projections in RAINS;– industry: changes in national and sectoral GDP as basis for
projections in number of industries (chemical, food and drink, wood preservation, other industrial solvent use, etc.);
– domestic solvent use (incl. paint), dry cleaning: related to population, GDP forecasts, changing consumption patterns;
– industrial paint use: linked to vehicle manufacturing and ownership forecasts, national and industrial GDP.
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Activity data: Agriculture
Statistical data for 1990-95 from national and international (e.g., FAO, IFA, OECD) yearbooks
Projections derived from agro-economic studies include assumptions on:
Future per capita consumption of milk, beef, pork, poultry, other meat and rates of fertilizer application;
The change in efficiency of production; The import-export balance of dairy products, meat, etc. Possible impact of the change of efficiency of production on emission
rates.
Spatial distribution derived from LUC project at IIASA and work of Li, Isherwood, Wang (1997)
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Emission factors and more
• Originate from national and international sources as well as expert judgement;
• Country, region and sector specific parameters taken into account (including climate conditions where appropriate);
• Autonomous improvement as well as changes in production efficiency considered.
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Comparison of emission coefficients(kg NH3/animal; %N loss for fertilizers)
Category IIASA,
Rains-Europe EEA, 1996 Asman, 1990 Bouwman
et.al., 1997 This study
Dairy cows 22 - 40 28.5 25.1 17.4 17.5 - 29.0 Other cattle 10 - 18 14.3 25.1 10.0 9.5 - 12.5 Pigs 3 - 7 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 – 5 Laying hens 0.16 - 0.42 0.37 0.32 0.24 0.32 Broilers 0.14 - 0.23 0.28 0.32 0.24 0.18 Sheep a 1 - 3 1.34 1.9 1.2 0.8 - 1.2 Horses b 12.5 8 12.5 10.6 10.6 Camels - - - 12.9 12.9 Urea application 15 - 20 15 15 15/25 c 15/20 c
ABC application - - - 20/30 c 20/30 c
a - includes goats b - includes mules and asses c - loss assumed for temperate and tropical zones, respectively
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Inventories and scenarios
Emissions estimated for 1990 and 1995 - where applicable, including controls;
Long-term developments:– No further controls (NFC) - only existing
legislation;– Current legislation (CLE) - taking into account
current and forthcoming legislation;– Preliminary BAT scenario for ammonia.
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Current legislation scenario (CLE)
Stationary sources (NOx)– Japan - SCR on LCP and combustion modifications on other
sources; Other countries, except China, Mongolia and Korea, DPR - combustion modifications
Stationary sources (NMVOC)– Japan, Taiwan, Korea and HK- chemical industry, refineries, depots
and gasoline stations: control of evaporative losses; paint use: good housekeeping and substitution; Other countries – no controls
Traffic (NOx, NMVOC)– Japan, HK - Euro-3; Taiwan, Korea - Euro-2; China - Euro-1 (2001)
and Euro-2 (2006); Mongolia and Korea, DPR - no control; also Japan, Taiwan, Korea and HK– evaporative controls and oxidation catalysts
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Emissions of air pollutants in East Asia (106 tons)
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
mil
lion
ton
s
NOx NH3* NMVOC
1990
1995
2030-NFC
2030-CLE
* For 2030, NFC and a hypothetical BAT scenario
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Emissions of nitrogen oxides (kt NOx, by country)
Country 1990 1995 2030 (CLE)
China 7231 9645 14225Japan 1867 2121 2025Korea, DPR of 448 300 1457Korea, Rep. of 832 1320 2491Mongolia 31 25 78Taiwan, ROC 410 521 867
Total 10818 13933 21143
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Emissions of ammonia (kt NH3, by country)
Country 1990 1995 2030 2030-BAT
China 9658 11738 19866 8253Japan 369 355 331 243Korea, DPR of 162 73 300 136Korea, Rep. of 137 168 235 165Mongolia 88 96 144 124Taiwan, ROC 134 154 165 92
Total 10549 12585 21041 9013
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Emissions of NOx in East Asia(Mt NOx, by sector)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990 1995 2030-NFC 2030-CLE
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Power plants
Industry
Transport
Domestic
Total
TotalSectoral
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A NOx projection for East Asia
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030-CLE
kilo
tons
Power plants Industry Transport Domestic Removed through technology
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Emissions of NOx from transport in East Asia(Mt NOx, by category)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1990 1995 2030-NFC 2030-CLE
mil
lio
n t
on
s
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Cars
HDT
Other
Total
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Emissions of ammonia(Mt NH3)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990 1995 2030-Base 2030-BAT
0
5
10
15
20
25
Cattle
Pigs
Poultry
Fertilizer use
Other
Total
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NH3 emission structure in China and other regions in 1990
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Non-agricultural sources of NH3 in Asia
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Asia'90 Asia'30 China'90 China'30 Japan'90 Japan'30 Kanto'90 Kanto'30
Agriculture Other non-agricultural Transport
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Population density(106 capita/grid, data for 1990-95)
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Spatial distribution of NOx emissions(kt NOx /grid)
1995 2030 (CLE)
108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152 156 160
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
0.0 10.0 20.0 50.0 100.0 250.0 500.0 750.0
kt/ grid
108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152 156 160
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
0.0 10.0 20.0 50.0 100.0 250.0 500.0 750.0
kt/ grid
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Spatial distribution of VOC emissions (kt VOC /grid)
1995 2030(CLE)
108 111 114 117 120 123 126 129 132 135 138 141 144 147 150 18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
0.0 10.0 30.0 50.0 75.0 150.0 300.0 500.0
kt/ grid
108 111 114 117 120 123 126 129 132 135 138 141 144 147 150 18
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
0.0 10.0 30.0 50.0 75.0 150.0 300.0 500.0
kt/ grid
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Spatial distribution of livestock in East Asia (103 head /grid; data for 1990-1993)
108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152 156 160
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
0 100 250 500 750 1000 2500 10000
Unit:
108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152 156 160
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
0 100 250 500 750 1000 2500 5000
Unit:
Pigs Large animals
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Spatial distribution of NH3 emissions
(kt NH3 /grid)
108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152 156 160
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
0.0 5.0 15.0 30.0 50.0 75.0 100.0 250.0
Unit:
1995 2030
108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152 156 160
9
12
15
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
0.0 5.0 15.0 30.0 50.0 75.0 100.0 250.0
Unit: kt/grid
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Emissions of volatile organic compounds in East
Asia (kt VOC, by country)
Country 1990 1995 2030 (CLE)
China 11402 13105 20739Japan 2157 2027 1762Korea, DPR of 148 114 431Korea, Rep. of 849 1183 1449Mongolia 16 14 69Taiwan, ROC 647 683 609
Total 15219 17126 25060
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Emissions of VOC in East Asia(Mt NMVOC)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1990 1995 2030-NFC 2030-CLE0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Transport
Fuel processing & distribution
Solvent use
Chemical industry
Combustion (industry, residential)
Other
Total
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Emissions of NMVOC from transport in East Asia(Mt NMVOC, by category)
0
1
2
3
4
5
1990 1995 2030-NFC 2030-CLE
mil
lio
n t
ons
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Cars
HDT
Other
Total
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Structure of NMVOC emissions in 1995 for selected countries in East Asia
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
China J apan Korea, Rep of
Other
Combustion
Chemical Industry
Solvent use
Fuel proc.& distr.
Transport
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
China'95 China'20 Japan'95 Japan'20 UK'90 UK'10 Czech R.'90 Czech R.'10
Stationary combustion Fossil fuel proc. & distribution Chemical industrySolvent use (including paint use) Transport Other
Structure of VOC emissionsfor selected countries
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Per capita VOC emission rates in selected countries, (kg/capita)
Region 1990 1995 2020 populationgrowth
China 9.7 10.8 12.7 + 25 %
Japan 17.4 16.1 14.1 0 %
Korea, Rep. of 19.6 26.5 26.5 + 19 %
Taiwan, ROC 31.7 32.1 27.3 + 12 %
Western Europe 20 - 50 14-25 ~ 0 %
Eastern Europe ~ 10/25-30 ~10/~20 ~ 0 %
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Anthropogenic NMVOC projection for East Asia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
mill
ion
tons
Stationary combustion Fossil fuel proc. & distribution Solvent use
Transport Other Avoided through technology
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Comparison of Chinese sectoral VOC emissions for 1995, (example)
Source Tonooka et al., 2001 This study
Solvent use (excl. paint) 199 761
Paint use 1017 1031
Fossil fuel processing & distribution 258 707
Transport 1612 3567
Stationary combustion a 10794 6398
Other - 521
Total 13880 13120
a includes also open field burning
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Ratio of NOx to VOC emissions in East Asia
(kt NOx / kt VOC)
1995 2030(CLE)
108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
0.00 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 10.00
NOx/ VOC ratio
108 112 116 120 124 128 132 136 140 144 148 152
18
21
24
27
30
33
36
39
42
45
48
0.00 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 1.10 1.20 10.00
NOx/ VOC ratio
IIASA
Comparison of NOx estimates for 1990
Source
Region Estimate (Mt NOx)
Higashino, Tonooka, Yanagisawa, Ikeda (1996)
China Japan East Asia
6.7 1.6 10.1
Xue Zhigang, et al. (1999) China
8.4
NISTEP, 1991 China
7.4
Aaredenne et al., 1997 China East Asia
8.3 13.0
Akimoto,1996 China East Asia
8.1 12.2
This study China Japan East Asia
7.2 1.9 10.8
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Comparison of VOC and NH3 estimates for 1990
Source
Region Estimate (Mt)
Piccot et al., 1992 [VOC] China Japan
5.3 3.9
Oliver et al., 1996 [VOC] China+ 17.7
Tonooka et al., 2001 [VOC] China (est. for 1994-95) Japan (est. for 1993)
13.9 2.0
This study [VOC] China Japan East Asia
11.4 2.2 15.2
Zhao, Wang, 1994 [NH3] China
Japan East Asia
10.9 [13.6] 0.38 [0.7] 11.5 [14.8]
Bouwman and Hoek, 1997 [NH3]
East Asia
9.8
This study [NH3] China Japan East Asia
9.7 0.37 10.5
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Conclusions
• Emissions of NOx and NH3 are projected to double by 2030 (compared to 1990) while anthropogenic NMVOC increase by 65%, in spite of assumed legislation and improvements in production efficiency.
• Although traffic density is projected to grow very fast, the increase in emissions is successfully slowed down by introduced legislation (transport remains an important source);
• Asian (China) emissions of NMVOC characterized by a high proportion originating from biomass burning;
• Current structure of NH3 emissions differs from that of Europe;• Several urban areas where emissions increase by a factor of two to
three by 2030;• Lack of NMVOC legislation (esp. China) in industry results in high
growth of emissions from chemical industry and solvent use, making these sectors the major source in 2030;
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Necessary improvements
Filling in gaps in historical data; Locally validated emission factors (including VOC
speciation); Spatial (provincial and lower level) distribution of
activities in the past and analysis of the possible future developments, e.g., incorporation of the land use data in order to better estimate the patterns of fertilizer application;
Details on industrial activities and their mid- and long-term projections;
Estimation of ammonia emissions from non-agricultural sources.