Download - Mapping Future Scenarios for the Eurozone
INTERNATIONAL POLICY ANALYSIS
� The Eurozone is facing a systemic crisis with far-reaching consequences for the fu-ture of the Economic and Monetary Union, European integration and Europe in the world.
� Economists and political scientists, besides politicians are groping around in the dark looking for a solution to the crisis and to bring the Eurozone into calmer waters.
� Identifying the main factors influencing the future development of the Monetary Un-ion allows us to produce various scenarios on how the Eurozone will look in 2020.
� Four major scenarios are conceivable. (i) The Member States can continue trying to muddle-through by means of crisis management, which may lead to the break-up of the Monetary Union; (ii) another variation of this leads to further reversals with regard to political integration; (iii) a specific combination of factors might lead to a two-tier Europe with a small hard core of Member States; alternatively, (iv) (some of) the Member States may press on to complete monetary union by means of a fiscal and political union.
Mapping Future Scenarios for the Eurozone
Statistical Annex
MARIA JOÃO RODRIGUES /ANTHONY FERREIRAJune 2012
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M. JOÃO RODRIGUES /A. FERREIRA | MAPPING FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROZONE
Content
1. A macro-economic background to understand the euro-zone crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . 31.1 Main trends in key-indicators . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
1.2 A sequence of very different periods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
2. GDP Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
3. Unemployment Rate . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
4. Employment Growth . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
5. Current account balance / GDP ratio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 14
6. Private Debt / GDP ratio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17
7. Public Debt / GDP ratio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 20
Sources . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
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M. JOÃO RODRIGUES /A. FERREIRA | MAPPING FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROZONE
1. A macro-economic background to understand the euro-zone crisis
1.1 Main trends in key-indicators
Real GDP growth rate
� in 2003-07, general acceleration of growth rate
(3,2% in 2007 for the EU GDP)
� in 2008-09, general recession reaching minus 4% of
GDP
� recovery starting in 2010, but not in EL and IE, fol-
lowed by PT in 2011, with longer and deeper recessions
� in 2011-2012, general downturn with slower growth
and several other countries entering into negative levels
Unemployment rate
� after 2000, general decrease particularly after 2005
reaching 7,6% in 2007
� after 2008, sharp increase reaching 10,1% in 2010
� after 2010, increasing divergences between MS: in
2010, SP with 20,1%, EE with 16,9%, EL with 12,6%,
IE with 13,7%, PT with 12,6%; NL with 4,5%, AT with
4,4% DE with 7,1% ( and 5,9% in 2011)
Employment growth
� in 2000-2007, net job creation, particularly after 2005
� after 2008 and until 2010, general negative evolution
of the employment volume
� after 2010, contrasted trends between MS: net job
creation in BE, DE, EE, MT, SK and FI; and net job destruc-
tion in IE, PT, SL, ES and particularly high in EL (estimated
minus 6%)
Current account
� in 2000-2011, relevant surplus are kept by AT, NL,
LU, DK, SW and DE; the DE surplus increases particularly
after 2004
� after 2004, the deficits increase particularly in BU, IE,
EL, ES, LV, PT, RO, SK
� nevertheless, in 2011, these deficits present a sharp
contraction in IE, EL, ES, IT, CY, PT
Private debt and private credit flows:
� after 1998, quick increase of private debt in BE, ES, EL,
IE, FI, DK, PT, SW, UK
� stable level in DE, CZ
� private credit flows in % of GDP are particularly high
in 2000-2008 in BE, DK, EE, IE, ES, CY, HU, PT, RO, SK,
UK but they decrease sharply after 2008
Public debt/GDP
� low levels of public debt/ GDP in SL, EE and SK and
several non Euro-zone MS: BG, RO, CZ, LV, LT, FI and SE
� general increase in 2008-2010 from an average of
60% to an average of 80%; this rise of public debt was
particularly visible in IE, EL, PT
1.2 A sequence of very different periods
To sum up, it is possible to distinguish 4 different periods:
1. After 2000, with the launch of the euro, general
growth with external imbalances:
� in 2003-07, general acceleration of growth rate (3,2%
in 2007 for the EU GDP)
� after 2000, general decrease of unemployment, par-
ticularly after 2005 reaching 7,6% in 2007
� in 2000-2007, general net job creation, particularly
after 2005
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M. JOÃO RODRIGUES /A. FERREIRA | MAPPING FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROZONE
� after 1998, quick increase of private debt in BE, ES, EL,
IE, FI, DK, PT, SW, UK
� private credit flows in % of GDP are particularly high
in 2000-2008 in BE, DK, EE, IE, ES, CY, HU, PT, RO, SK, UK
� after 2004, the deficits of current account increase
particularly in BU, IE, EL, ES, LV, PT, RO, SK
2. In 2008-09, with the financial and economic crisis,
general slump:
� in 2008-09, general recession reaching minus 4% of
GDP
� after 2008, sharp increase of unemployment reaching
10,1% in 2010
� after 2008 and until 2010, general contraction of the
employment volume
� private credit flows in % of GDP decrease sharply after
2008 in BE, DK, EE, IE, ES, CY, HU, PT, RO, SK, UK
� general increase in public debt in 2008-2010 from an
average of 60% to an average of 80%; this rise of public
debt was particularly visible in IE, EL, PT
3. After 2009, recovery/recession with increasing diver-
gences:
� recovery starting in 2010, but not in EL and IE, fol-
lowed by PT in 2011, with longer and deeper recessions
� after 2010, increasing divergences between MS un-
employment rates: in 2010, SP with 20,1%, EE with
16,9%, EL with 12,6%, IE with 13,7%, PT with 12,6%;
NL with 4,5%, AT with 4,4% DE with 7,1% ( and 5,9%
in 2011)
� after 2010, contrasted trends between MS: net job
creation in BE, DE, EE, MT, SK and FI; and net job destruc-
tion in IE, PT, SL, ES and particularly high in EL (estimated
minus 6%)
4. After 2011, risks of more general recession:
� in 2011-2012, general downturn with slower growth
and several other countries entering into negative levels
� in 2011, the deficits of current account present a
sharp contraction in IE, EL, ES, IT, CY, PT
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M. JOÃO RODRIGUES /A. FERREIRA | MAPPING FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROZONE
2. GDP Growth
Real GDP Growth Rate – Volume
GEO/TIME 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
EU (27) 3.9 2.2 1.3 1.4 2.5 2.0 3.3 3.2 0.3 –4.3 2.0 1.5 0 (f) 1.3 (f)
Euro area (17) 3.8 2 0.9 0.7 2.2 1.7 3.3 3 0.4 –4.3 1.9 1.5 -0.3 (f) 1 (f)
Austria 3.7 0.9 1.7 0.9 2.6 2.4 3.7 3.7 1.4 –3.8 2.3 3 0.8 (f) 1.7 (f)
Belgium 3.7 0.8 1.4 0.8 3.3 1.7 2.7 2.9 1 –2.8 2.3 1.9 0 (f) 1.2 (f)
Cyprus 5 4 2.1 1.9 4.2 3.9 4.1 5.1 3.6 –1.9 1.1 0.5 -0.8 (f) 0.3 (f)
Estonia 14 6.3 6.6 7.8 6.3 8.9 10.1 7.5 –3.7 –14.3 2.3 7.6 1.6 (f) 3.8 (f)
Finland 5.3 2.3 1.8 2 4.1 2.9 4.4 5.3 0.3 –8.4 3.7 2.9 0.8 (f) 1.6 (f)
France 3.7 1.8 0.9 0.9 2.5 1.8 2.5 2.3 –0.1 –2.7 1.5 1.7 0.5 (f) 1.3 (f)
Germany 3.1 1.5 0 –0.4 1.2 0.7 3.7 3.3 1.1 –5.1 3.7 3 0.7 (f) 1.7 (f)
Greece (p) 3,5 (p) 4,2 (p) 3,4 (p) 5,9 (p) 4,4 (p) 2,3 (p) 5,5 (p) 3 (p) –0,2 (p) –3,3 (p) –3.5 -6.9 (p) -4.7 (f) 0 (f)
Ireland (p) 9,3 (p) 4,8 (p) 5,9 (p) 4,2 (p) 4,5 (p) 5,3 (p) 5,3 (p) 5,2 (p) –3 (p) –7 (p) –0.4 0.7 0.5 (f) 1.9 (f)
Italy 3.7 1.9 0.5 0 1.7 0.9 2.2 1.7 –1.2 –5.1 1.5 0.4 -1.4 (f) 0.4 (f)
Luxembourg 8.4 2.5 4.1 1.5 4.4 5.4 5 6.6 0.8 –5.3 2.7 1.6 1.1 (f) 2.1 (f)
Malta : –1.5 2.8 0.1 –0.5 3.7 2.8 4.3 4.3 –2.6 2.9 2.1 1.2 (f) 1.9 (f)
Netherlands 3.9 1.9 0.1 0.3 2.2 2 3.4 3.9 1.8 –3.5 1.7 1.2 -0.9 (f) 0.7 (f)
Portugal 3.9 2 0.8 –0.9 1.6 0.8 1.4 2.4 0 –2.9 1.4 -1.6 -3.3 (f) 0.3 (f)
Slovakia 1.4 3.5 4.6 4.8 5.1 6.7 8.3 10.5 5.9 –4.9 4.2 3.3 1.8 (f) 2.9 (f)
Slovenia 4.3 2.9 3.8 2.9 4.4 4 5.8 6.9 3.6 –8 1.4 -0.2 -1.4 (f) 0.7 (f)
Spain 5 3.7 2.7 3.1 3.3 3.6 4.1 3.5 0.9 –3.7 –0.1 0.7 -1.8 (f) –0.3 (f)
Non Euro Area
Bulgaria 5.7 4.2 4.7 5.5 6.7 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.2 –5.5 0.2 1.7 0.5 (f) 1.9 (f)
Czech Republic 4.2 3.1 2.1 3.8 4.7 6.8 7 5.7 3.1 –4.7 2.7 1.7 0 (f) 1.5 (f)
Denmark 3.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 2.3 2.4 3.4 1.6 –0.8 –5.8 1.3 1 1.1 (f) 1.4 (f)
Hungary 4.2 3.7 4.5 3.9 4.8 4 3.9 0.1 0.9 –6.8 1.3 1.6 -0.3 (f) 1 (f)
Latvia 6.1 7.3 7.2 7.6 8.9 10.1 11.2 9.6 –3.3 –17.7 –0.3 5.5 2.2 (f) 3.6 (f)
Lithuania 12.3 6.7 6.8 10.3 7.4 7.8 7.8 9.8 2.9 –14.8 1.4 5.9 2.4 (f) 3.5 (f)
Poland 4.3 1.2 1.4 3.9 5.3 3.6 6.2 6.8 5.1 1.6 3.9 4.3 2.7 (f) 2.6 (f)
Romania 2.4 5.7 5.1 5.2 8.5 4.2 7.9 6.3 7.3 –6.6 –1.6 2.5 1.4 (f) 2.9 (f)
Sweden 4.5 1.3 2.5 2.3 4.2 3.2 4.3 3.3 –0.6 –5.2 5.6 3.9 0.3 (f) 2.1 (f)
United Kingdom 4.5 3.2 2.7 3.5 3 2.1 2.6 3.5 –1.1 –4.4 2.1 0.7 0.5 (f) 1.7 (f)
: = Not available, f = Forecast, b = Break in series, p = Provisional value
Source: Eurostat (code: tsieb020)
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M. JOÃO RODRIGUES /A. FERREIRA | MAPPING FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROZONE
Real GDP growth rate – volume Percentages change on previous year (2000–2008)
2000 2004 2008
Italy
Denmark
Germany
Portugal
Malta
France
Euro area (17)
United Kingdom
EU (27)
Greece
Austria
Netherlands
Belgium
Sweden
Spain
Finland
Hungary
Ireland
Latvia
Czech Republic
Slovenia
Slovakia
Cyprus
Luxembourg
Poland
Estonia
Romania
Bulgaria
Lithuania
–4 –2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
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M. JOÃO RODRIGUES /A. FERREIRA | MAPPING FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROZONE
Real GDP growth rate – volume Percentages change on previous year (2008–2013)
–20 –17,5 –15 –12,5 –10 –7,5 –5 –2,5 0 2,5 5 7,5
Latvia
Greece
Ireland
Estonia
Italy
Portugal
Denmark
Slovenia
Finland
Hungary
United Kingdom
Lithuania
Spain
Euro area (17)
EU (27)
Luxembourg
France
Netherlands
Sweden
Germany
Belgium
Czech Republic
Austria
Cyprus
Bulgaria
Malta
Romania
Slovakia
Poland
2008 2009 2011 2013
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M. JOÃO RODRIGUES /A. FERREIRA | MAPPING FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROZONE
GEO/TIME 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
EU (27 ) 8.8 8.6 8.9 9.1 9.2 9 8.3 7.2 7.1 9 9.7 9.6
Euro area (17) 8.7 8.1 8.5 9 9.3 9.2 8.5 7.6 7.6 9.6 10.1 10.1
Austria 3.6 3.6 4.2 4.3 4.9 5.2 4.8 4.4 3.8 4.8 4.4 4.1
Belgium 6.9 6.6 7.5 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.3 7.5 7 7.9 8.3 7.2
Cyprus 4.8 3.9 3.5 4.1 4.6 5.3 4.6 3.9 3.7 5.3 6.2 7.7
Estonia 13.6 12.6 10.3 10 9.7 7.9 5.9 4.7 5.5 13.8 16.9 :
Finland 9.8 9.1 9.1 9 8.8 8.4 7.7 6.9 6.4 8.2 8.4 7.8
France 9 8.2 8.3 8.9 9.3 9.3 9.2 8.4 7.8 9.5 9.8 9.7
Germany 8 7.9 8.7 9.8 10.5 11.3 10.3 8.7 7.5 7.8 7.1 5.9
Greece 11.2 10.7 10.3 9.7 10.5 9.9 8.9 8.3 7.7 9.5 12.6 :
Ireland 4.2 3.9 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.6 6.3 11.9 13.7 14.3
Italy 10 9 8.5 8.4 8 7.7 6.8 6.1 6.7 7.8 8.4 :
Luxembourg 2.2 1.9 2.6 3.8 5 4.6 4.6 4.2 4.9 5.1 4.6 4.8
Malta 6.7 7.6 7.4 7.7 7.2 7.3 6.9 6.5 6 6.9 6.9 6.4
Netherlands 3.1 2.5 3.1 4.2 5.1 5.3 4.4 3.6 3.1 3.7 4.5 4.4
Portugal 4.5 (e) 4.6 (e) 5.7 (e) 7.1 (e) 7.5 (e) 8.6 (e) 8.6 (e) 8.9 (e) 8.5 (e) 10.6 (e) 12 (e) 12.7
Slovakia 18.8 19.3 18.7 17.6 18.2 16.3 13.4 11.1 9.5 12 14.4 13.4
Slovenia 6.7 6.2 6.3 6.7 6.3 6.5 6 4.9 4.4 5.9 7.3 8.1
Spain 11.7 10.5 11.4 11.4 10.9 9.2 8.5 8.3 11.3 18 20.1 21.6
Non Euro Area
Bulgaria 16.4 19.5 18.2 13.7 12.1 10.1 9 6.9 5.6 6.8 10.2 11.1
Czech Republic 8.7 8 7.3 7.8 8.3 7.9 7.2 5.3 4.4 6.7 7.3 6.8
Denmark 4.3 4.5 4.6 5.4 5.5 4.8 3.9 3.8 3.3 6 7.4 7.6
Hungary 6.4 5.7 5.8 5.9 6.1 7.2 7.5 7.4 7.8 10 11.2 10.9
Latvia 13.7 12.9 12.2 10.5 10.4 8.9 6.8 6 7.5 17.1 18.7 :
Lithuania 16.4 16.5 13.5 12.5 11.4 8.3 5.6 4.3 5.8 13.7 17.8 :
Poland 16.1 18.3 20 19.7 19 17.8 13.9 9.6 7.1 8.2 9.6 9.6
Romania 6.8 6.6 7.5 6.8 8 7.2 7.3 6.4 5.8 6.9 7.3 7.3
Sweden 5.6 5.8 (b) 6 6.6 7.4 7.7 7.1 6.1 6.2 8.3 8.4 7.5
United Kingdom 5.4 5 5.1 5 4.7 4.8 5.4 5.3 5.6 7.6 7.8 :
: = Not available, e = Estimated value, b = Break in series
Source: Eurostat (code: tsiem110)
3. Unemployment Rate
Unemployment rate by gender – % (Total)
2008 2009 2010 2011
7,1 9 9,7 9,6
7,6 9,6 10,1 10,1
3,8 4,8 4,4 4,1
7 7,9 8,3 7,2
3,7 5,3 6,2 7,7
5,5 13,8 16,9 :
6,4 8,2 8,4 7,8
7,8 9,5 9,8 9,7
7,5 7,8 7,1 5,9
7,7 9,5 12,6 :
6,3 11,9 13,7 14,3
6,7 7,8 8,4 :
4,9 5,1 4,6 4,8
6 6,9 6,9 6,4
3,1 3,7 4,5 4,4
8,5 (e) 10,6 (e) 12 (e) 12,7
9,5 12 14,4 13,4
4,4 5,9 7,3 8,1
11,3 18 20,1 21,6
5,6 6,8 10,2 11,1
4,4 6,7 7,3 6,8
3,3 6 7,4 7,6
7,8 10 11,2 10,9
7,5 17,1 18,7 :
5,8 13,7 17,8 :
7,1 8,2 9,6 9,6
5,8 6,9 7,3 7,3
6,2 8,3 8,4 7,5
5,6 7,6 7,8 :
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M. JOÃO RODRIGUES /A. FERREIRA | MAPPING FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROZONE
Unemployment rate by gender – % (Total) – 2000–2008
2000 2004 2008
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Netherlands
Luxembourg
Austria
Cyprus
Denmark
Ireland
United Kingdom
Slovenia
Sweden
Malta
Hungary
Portugal
Romania
Czech Republic
Belgium
Italy
Finland
EU (27 )
Euro area (17)
Germany
France
Estonia
Greece
Latvia
Lithuania
Spain
Bulgaria
Poland
Slovakia
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M. JOÃO RODRIGUES /A. FERREIRA | MAPPING FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROZONE
Unemployment rate by gender – % (Total) – 2008–2011
2008 2009 2011
0 2.5 5 7.5 10 12.5 15 17.5 20 22.5 25
Netherlands
Austria
Luxembourg
Cyprus
Denmark
Czech Republic
Slovenia
Malta
United Kingdom
Romania
Germany
Italy
Sweden
Belgium
Finland
Bulgaria
Poland
EU (27 )
Greece
France
Euro area (17)
Hungary
Estonia
Lithuania
Portugal
Ireland
Slovakia
Latvia
Spain
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M. JOÃO RODRIGUES /A. FERREIRA | MAPPING FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROZONE
GEO/TIME 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
EU (27) 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.4 0.6 1 1.6 1.8 1 –1.8 –0.5 0.3
Euro area (17) 2.5 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.8 1 1.6 1.8 0.8 –1.8 –0.5 0.1
Austria 1.3 0.7 –0.1 0.6 0.6 1.2 1.7 1.8 2 –0.8 0.9 1.4
Belgium 2 1.4 –0.2 –0.1 1.1 1.4 1.1 1.7 1.8 –0.2 0.8 1.3
Cyprus 1.7 2.2 2.1 3.8 3.8 3.6 1.8 3.2 2.1 –0.5 0.1 0.5
Estonia –1.5 0.8 1.3 1.4 –0.1 2 5.4 0.7 0.2 –9.9 –4.8 7
Finland 2.1 1.3 0.9 0.1 0.4 1.4 1.8 2.2 2.6 –3.5 –1.4 1.2
France 2.6 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.7 1.1 1.4 0.5 –1.2 0.1 0.6
Germany 1.7 0.3 –0.6 –0.9 0.3 –0.1 0.6 1.7 1.2 0 0.5 1.3
Greece 0.5 (p) 0.1 (p) 2.3 (p) 1.2 (p) 2.4 (p) 3 (p) 1.8 (p) 1.6 (p) 0.8 (p) –0.2 (p) –1.9 (p) –6.7 (p)
Ireland 4.5 3.1 1.6 1.9 3.4 4.9 4.4 3.6 –1.1 –8.1 –4.2 –2.1
Italy 1.9 2 1.7 1.5 0.4 0.6 2 1.3 0.3 –1.6 –0.7 0.3
Luxembourg : : : : : : : : : : : :
Malta : 1.8 0.6 1 –0.6 1.5 1.3 3.2 2.6 –0.3 2.2 2.4
Netherlands 2.2 2.1 0.5 –0.5 –0.9 0.5 1.7 2.5 1.5 –0.7 –0.3 (b) 0.3
Portugal 2.1 1.8 0.6 –0.6 –0.1 –0.3 0.5 0 0.5 –2.6 –1.5 –1.5
Slovakia –2 0.6 0.1 1.1 –0.2 1.6 2.1 2.1 3.2 –2 –1.5 1.8
Slovenia 1.5 0.6 1.6 –0.3 0.4 –0.5 1.5 3.3 2.6 –1.8 –2.5 –1.7
Spain 5.1 3.2 2.5 3.2 3.6 4.1 4 3 –0.2 –6.7 –2.6 –2
Non Euro Area
Bulgaria –2.4 –0.8 0.2 3 2.6 2.7 3.3 3.2 2.6 –2.6 –5.9 –4.2
Czech Republic –0.8 –0.3 0.6 –0.8 –0.3 2.1 1.3 2.1 2.3 –1.2 –1.7 0.3
Denmark 0.5 0.9 0 –1.1 –0.6 1 2.1 2.8 1.7 –3.3 –2.2 –0.4
Hungary 1 –0.2 –0.1 0 –1 –0.3 0.4 0 –1.4 –2.8 0.3 0.3
Latvia –3.2 1.2 2.9 1.9 1.2 1.6 4.9 3.6 0.9 –13.2 –4.8 3.4
Lithuania –4 –3.8 3.6 2.2 0 2.5 1.8 2.8 –0.7 –6.8 –5.1 2
Poland : : : : : 2.2 3.2 4.5 3.9 0.4 0.5 1
Romania : : : : : : : : : –2 : 0.4
Sweden 2.5 2.1 0 –0.6 –0.7 0.3 1.7 2.3 0.9 –2 1.1 2.2
United Kingdom 1.3 (i) 1.1 (i) 0.7 (i) 1.1 (i) 1 (i) 1.3 (i) 1.1 (i) 0.7 (i) 0.3 (i) –1.7 (i) –0.7 (i) 0.5
: = Not available e = Estimated value p = Provisional value b = Break in series i = See explanatory text
Source: Eurostat (code: tsieb050)
4. Employment Growth
Employment growth by gender – Annual percentage change in total employed population – Total
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M. JOÃO RODRIGUES /A. FERREIRA | MAPPING FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROZONE
Employment growth by gender – Annual percentage change in total employed population – % (Total) (2000–2008)
2000 2004 2008
–6 –4 –2 0 2 4 6
Lithuania
Estonia
Hungary
Latvia
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Denmark
Portugal
Italy
United Kingdom
Sweden
Netherlands
Bulgaria
Malta
EU (27)
France
Germany
Greece
Austria
Euro area (17)
Slovenia
Belgium
Finland
Ireland
Cyprus
Spain
Poland
Luxembourg
Romania
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M. JOÃO RODRIGUES /A. FERREIRA | MAPPING FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROZONE
Employment growth by gender – Annual percentage change in total employed population – % (Total) (2008–2011)
–15 –12,5 –10 –7,5 –5 –2,5 0 2,5 5 7,5
Ireland
Latvia
Spain
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Greece
Estonia
Portugal
Denmark
Hungary
Slovenia
Italy
United Kingdom
Euro area (17)
Finland
EU (27)
Czech Republic
France
Netherlands
Slovakia
Romania
Cyprus
Sweden
Germany
Austria
Belgium
Poland
Malta
Luxembourg
2008 2009 2010 2011
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M. JOÃO RODRIGUES /A. FERREIRA | MAPPING FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROZONE
GEO/TIME 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Euro area (17) –0.8 –1 –1 –0.8 –0.7 –1.3 –1.9 –2.6 –3.3 –3 –2.4 –1.3
Austria –1.3 –1.1 0.4 1.2 2.2 2 2.4 2.8 3.7 3.7 3.5 2.6
Belgium 4.8 4.2 4 3.8 3.7 2.9 2.3 1.8 0.6 –0.6 –0.6 –0.3
Cyprus –1.3 –3.5 –4.1 –3.1 –3.7 –4.4 –6 –8.2 –11.5 –12.7 –12.1 –10.3
Estonia –6.1 –4.9 –7.1 –9 –11.1 –10.9 –12.2 –13.8 –13.7 –7.3 –0.8 3.5
Finland 6.1 7.2 8.2 7.2 6.5 4.8 4.6 3.9 3.7 2.9 2.1 0.8
France 2.5 2.1 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.3 –0.2 –0.7 –1.1 –1.4 –1.7 –1.8
Germany –1.2 –1 0.1 1.3 2.9 3.9 5.3 6.3 6.7 6.5 5.9 5.9
Greece –4.7 –6.2 –7.2 –6.8 –6.3 –6.7 –8.3 –11.2 –13.6 –13.6 –12.1 –10.4
Ireland 0.2 –0.3 –0.7 –0.5 –0.5 –1.4 –2.5 –4.1 –4.8 –4.6 –2.7 –0.8
Italy 0.9 0.4 –0.1 –0.3 –0.5 –0.7 –0.9 –1.2 –1.9 –2 –2.8 –2.9
Luxembourg 10.3 10.1 10.8 9.1 10.2 10.5 11.3 10.7 8.5 7.2 6.4 7.1
Malta –7.1 –6.4 –4.6 –1.5 –2.2 –5.9 –8.2 –8.3 –7.1 –6.2 –5.4 –5.9
Netherlands 3.1 2.8 2.4 3.6 5.3 6.9 8.1 7.8 6.8 5.1 5 6.8
Portugal –8.7 –9.8 –9.6 –8.3 –7.7 –8.4 –9.8 –10.4 –11.1 –11.2 –11.2 –9.1
Slovakia –6.2 –5.8 –6.5 –7.4 –7.2 –7.4 –8.1 –7.2 –6.4 –4.7 –4.1 –2
Slovenia –2.1 –1.9 –0.5 0.1 –0.8 –1.7 –2.3 –3 –4.7 –4.3 –3 –1.1
Spain –2.7 –3.6 –3.7 –3.6 –4 –5.4 –7.2 –8.8 –9.5 –8.3 –6.5 –4.3
Non Euro Area
Bulgaria –3.5 –5.2 –4.4 –4.4 –4.7 –7.8 –11.9 –18.1 –22 –19.1 –11.1 –3
Czech Republic –3 –4 –5 –5.5 –5.4 –4 –2.7 –2.4 –2.8 –2.9 –2.5 –3
Denmark 0.8 2.2 2.3 3 3 3.6 3.4 2.9 2.4 2.5 3.9 5.1
Hungary –7.1 –7.5 –7.2 –7 –7.8 –7.8 –7.6 –7.3 –7.3 –4.9 –2.1 0.8
Latvia –7.7 –7.1 –6.4 –7.5 –9.3 –11.2 –16 –19.2 –19.4 –9 –0.5 3.5
Lithuania –9.4 –7.1 –5.2 –5.5 –6.5 –7.1 –8.4 –10.7 –12.6 –7.6 –2.3 1.5
Poland –5.8 –5.5 –4 –2.8 –3.5 –3.4 –3.8 –4.1 –5.5 –5.5 –5 –4.3
Romania –4.8 –4.4 –4.1 –4.9 –5.9 –7.6 –9.1 –10.8 –11.8 –9.7 –6.6 –4.3
Sweden 4 4.4 4.6 5.6 6.1 6.8 7.2 8.1 8.8 8.4 7.5 7
United Kingdom –1.8 –2.4 –2.1 –1.8 –1.8 –2.1 –2.7 –2.8 –2.4 –1.8 –2.1 –2.2
: = Not available
Source: Eurostat (code: tipsbp10)
5. Current account balance / GDP ratio
Current account balance in % of GDP – 3 year average
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M. JOÃO RODRIGUES /A. FERREIRA | MAPPING FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROZONE
Current account balance in % of GDP – 3 year average (2000–2008)
–25 –20 –15 –10 –5 0 5 10 15
Latvia
Estonia
Bulgaria
Lithuania
Portugal
Greece
Romania
Hungary
Slovakia
Cyprus
Malta
Spain
Poland
Czech Republic
Slovenia
United Kingdom
Ireland
Euro area (17)
Italy
France
Austria
Denmark
Germany
Belgium
Netherlands
Finland
Sweden
Luxembourg
2008 2004 2000
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M. JOÃO RODRIGUES /A. FERREIRA | MAPPING FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROZONE
Current account balance in % of GDP – 3 year average (2008–2010)
–25 –20 –15 –10 –5 0 5 10 15
Bulgaria
Greece
Cyprus
Portugal
Romania
Latvia
Spain
Malta
Lithuania
Estonia
Poland
Slovakia
Hungary
Ireland
Slovenia
Czech Republic
Euro area (17)
Italy
United Kingdom
France
Belgium
Finland
Austria
Denmark
Netherlands
Germany
Luxembourg
Sweden
2009 2008 2011
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M. JOÃO RODRIGUES /A. FERREIRA | MAPPING FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROZONE
GEO/TIME 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Euro area (17) 121 123,3 127,1 131 137,4 146 160,3 176 186,8 195,9 193,2
Austria 125 127.2 126.8 128.9 128.1 132.3 144.4 152.2 156.5 161.4 165.7
Belgium 168.5 179.4 180.4 193.9 188.3 185.1 193.3 203.4 217.5 228.8 232.8
Cyprus 164.6 164.2 173.8 169.5 168.2 203.9 199.7 220.6 260.3 266 289.2
Estonia 67.4 78.8 87 99.2 113.8 122.8 150.1 158.9 167.5 190.6 176.1
Finland 129.3 124.6 126.7 134 137.4 141.6 147.3 150.6 168.9 178.3 177.7
France 117.2 123.7 124.1 123.7 126.9 131.6 136.8 142.5 149.9 156.8 159.8
Germany 131.5 133.1 136 135.6 131.2 128.4 124.4 122.4 123.7 130.6 128.2
Greece 58 65 68.2 72 78.6 90.2 98 107.6 119.3 122.7 124.1
Ireland : 149.4 160.1 153.5 170.9 192.3 205.3 215.3 284 336.1 341.3
Italy 79.5 84 86.7 90.8 94.5 101 107.5 114.9 119.3 125.6 126.4
Luxembourg : : : : : : 258.7 395.8 353.6 317.8 253.9
Malta : : : : 178.1 180.6 194.4 193.2 202.3 214.7 212
Netherlands 189.5 191 195 202.6 204.5 210.5 212.6 210.9 211 226.1 223.4
Portugal 173 186.7 191 196.3 197.4 205.1 209.4 223.1 240.4 252 248.5
Slovakia 47.1 45.8 44.8 49.2 45.7 48.5 52.7 57.4 62.2 68.8 69
Slovenia : 64.4 66.7 70.6 75.3 85.2 90.9 105.9 117.3 127.4 128.8
Spain 122.3 132.5 139.5 147.8 159.9 176.6 200.4 215.1 221.1 227.2 227.3
Non Euro Area
Bulgaria 36.4 47.6 47.6 58.4 74 91.1 100 131.8 154.5 174.7 169.2
Czech Republic 65.5 59.5 61.4 55.8 56.6 57.2 61.4 65.5 73 76 77.2
Denmark 163.7 176.8 175.9 177.9 185.9 202 215 224.1 237.4 250.5 244.2
Hungary 67.2 67.3 71.1 84.9 86.4 102.2 110.7 125.7 155.7 169.9 155.1
Latvia 39.8 49.5 54.4 61.8 74.5 94.8 122.1 127.5 132.1 147.4 140.9
Lithuania 30.2 29.4 29.9 35.5 41.9 52.5 64.4 81.5 81.8 88.5 80.8
Poland 39.7 42.6 49.2 48 42.7 44.1 52.2 58.8 72 72 74.2
Romania 29.3 30.4 34.4 36.1 36 42 67.7 106.6 115 123.7 77.7
Sweden 185.4 202.9 201.7 197.3 172.9 183.6 192.9 210.3 236.7 249.3 236.9
United Kingdom 148.1 157 166.4 172.6 182.5 195.7 207 206.6 222.3 223.3 212.2
: = Not available
Source: Eurostat (code: tipspd10)
6. Private Debt / GDP ratio
Private debt in % of GDP – non consolidated – annual data
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M. JOÃO RODRIGUES /A. FERREIRA | MAPPING FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROZONE
Private debt in % of GDP – non consolidated – annual data (2000–2008)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Lithuania
Poland
Slovakia
Romania
Czech Republic
Latvia
Greece
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Italy
Hungary
Estonia
Germany
France
Austria
Finland
Euro area (17)
Spain
United Kingdom
Malta
Belgium
Denmark
Cyprus
Sweden
Netherlands
Portugal
Ireland
Luxembourg
2000 2004 2008
19
M. JOÃO RODRIGUES /A. FERREIRA | MAPPING FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROZONE
Private debt in % of GDP – non consolidated – annual data (2008–2010)
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Slovakia
Poland
Czech Republic
Lithuania
Romania
Greece
Italy
Slovenia
Germany
Latvia
France
Hungary
Austria
Bulgaria
Finland
Estonia
Euro area (17)
Malta
United Kingdom
Netherlands
Spain
Belgium
Sweden
Denmark
Portugal
Cyprus
Luxembourg
Ireland
2008 2009 2010
20
M. JOÃO RODRIGUES /A. FERREIRA | MAPPING FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROZONE
GEO/TIME 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
EU (27) 61.9 61.0 60.4 61.9 62.3 62.8 61.5 59.0 62.5 74.7 80.1 82,5
Euro area (17) 69.2 68.1 67.9 69.1 69.5 70.1 68.5 66.3 70.1 79.8 85.3 87,2
Austria 66.2 66.8 66.2 65.3 64.7 64.2 62.3 60.2 63.8 69.5 71.8 72,2
Belgium 107.8 106.5 103.4 98.4 94.0 92.0 88.0 84.1 89.3 95.9 96.2 98,0
Cyprus 59.6 61.2 65.1 69.7 70.9 69.4 64.7 58.8 48.9 58.5 61.5 71,6
Estonia 5.1 4.8 5.7 5.6 5.0 4.6 4.4 3.7 4.5 7.2 6.7 6,0
Finland 43.8 42.5 41.5 44.5 44.4 41.7 39.6 35.2 33.9 43.3 48.3 48,6
France 57.3 56.9 58.8 62.9 64.9 66.4 63.7 64.2 68.2 79.0 82.3 85,8
Germany 60.2 59.1 60.7 64.4 66.3 68.6 68.1 65.2 66.7 74.4 83.2 81,2
Greece 103.4 103.7 101.7 97.4 98.6 100.0 106.1 107.4 113.0 129.3 144.9 165,3
Ireland 37.5 35.2 31.9 30.7 29.4 27.2 24.7 24.8 44.2 65.2 92.5 108,2
Italy 108.5 108.2 105.1 103.9 103.4 105.4 106.1 103.1 105.8 115.5 118.4 120,1
Luxembourg 6.2 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.3 6.1 6.7 6.7 13.7 14.8 19.1 18,2
Malta 54.9 60.9 59.1 67.6 71.7 69.7 64.1 62.1 62.2 67.8 69.0 72,0
Netherlands 53.8 50.7 50.5 52.0 52.4 51.8 47.4 45.3 58.5 60.8 62.9 65,2
Portugal 48.5 51.2 53.8 55.9 57.6 62.8 63.9 68.3 71.6 83.0 93.3 107,8
Slovakia 50.3 48.9 43.4 42.4 41.5 34.2 30.5 29.6 27.8 35.5 41.0 43,3
Slovenia 26.3 26.5 27.8 27.2 27.3 26.7 26.4 23.1 21.9 35.3 38.8 47,6
Spain 59.4 55.6 52.6 48.8 46.3 43.1 39.6 36.2 40.1 53.8 61.0 68,5
Non Euro Area
Bulgaria 72.5 66.0 52.4 44.4 37.0 27.5 21.6 17.2 13.7 14.6 16.3 16,3
Czech Republic 17.8 23.9 27.1 28.6 28.9 28.4 28.3 27.9 28.7 34.4 37.6 41,2
Denmark 52.4 49.6 49.5 47.2 45.1 37.8 32.1 27.5 34.5 41.8 43.7 46,5
Hungary 56.1 52.7 55.9 58.6 59.5 61.7 65.9 67.0 72.9 79.7 81.3 80,6
Latvia 12.4 14.1 13.6 14.7 15.0 12.5 10.7 9.0 19.8 36.7 44.7 42,6
Lithuania 23.6 23.0 22.2 21.0 19.3 18.3 17.9 16.8 15.5 29.4 38.0 38,5
Poland 36.8 37.6 42.2 47.1 45.7 47.1 47.7 45.0 47.1 50.9 54.9 56,3
Romania 22.5 25.7 24.9 21.5 18.7 15.8 12.4 12.8 13.4 23.6 31.0 33,3
Sweden 53.9 54.7 52.5 51.7 50.3 50.4 45.0 40.2 38.8 42.7 39.7 38,4
United Kingdom 41.0 37.7 37.5 39.0 40.9 42.5 43.4 44.4 54.8 69.6 79.9 85,7
: = Not available
Source: Eurostat (code: gov_dd_edpt1)
7. Public Debt / GDP ratio
Government consolidated gross debt / GDP ratio
21
M. JOÃO RODRIGUES /A. FERREIRA | MAPPING FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROZONE
Government consolidated gross debt / GDP ratio (2000–2008)
2000 2004 2008
0 10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Estonia
Luxembourg
Latvia
Romania
Lithuania
Czech Republic
Slovenia
Ireland
Slovakia
Finland
Bulgaria
Poland
Denmark
United Kingdom
Sweden
Spain
Netherlands
Portugal
Cyprus
EU (27)
Hungary
Malta
France
Germany
Austria
Euro area (17)
Belgium
Greece
Italy
22
M. JOÃO RODRIGUES /A. FERREIRA | MAPPING FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROZONE
Government consolidated gross debt / GDP ratio (2008–2011)
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175
Estonia
Bulgaria
Luxembourg
Romania
Lithuania
Latvia
Czech Republic
Slovenia
Slovakia
Sweden
Denmark
Finland
Poland
Spain
Cyprus
Netherlands
Malta
Austria
United Kingdom
Ireland
EU (27)
Germany
France
Hungary
Euro area (17)
Portugal
Belgium
Italy
Greece
2008 2009 2011
23
M. JOÃO RODRIGUES /A. FERREIRA | MAPPING FUTURE SCENARIOS FOR THE EUROZONE
Sources
Database
� EUROSTAT Database
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/statistics/search_database
� OECD Database
http://www.oecd.org/document/0,3746,en_2649_201185_46462759_1_1_1_1,00.html
Key Documents
� Alert Mechanism Report, Report from the Commission prepared in accordance with Articles 3 and 4 of the Regula-
tion on the prevention and correction of macro-economic imbalances.
� Annex Macro-Economic Report – AGS 2012 (23.11.11) COM(2011)815 final
http://ec.europa.eu/europe2020/pdf/ags2012_annex2_en.pdf
� Eurostatistics Data for Short-Term Economic Analysis - Issue number 03/2011
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/cache/ITY_OFFPUB/KS-BJ-11-003/EN/KS-BJ-11-003-EN.PDF
� Innovation Union Scoreboard 2011 (industrial innovation)
http://ec.europa.eu/enterprise/policies/innovation/facts-figures-analysis/innovation-scoreboard
� Key Indicators for the Euro Area
http://ec.europa.eu/economy_finance/db_indicators/key_indicators/documents/key_indicators_en.pdf
The views expressed in this publication are not necessarily those of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung or of the organization for which the author works.
This publication is printed on paper from sustainable forestry.
ISBN 978-3-86498-196-8
About the authors
Maria João Rodrigues is Policy Advisor to the EU institutions and Professor of European Economic Policies at the Institute for European Studies, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels.
Anthony Ferreira is Assistant to Professor Rodrigues at the Institute for European Studies, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels.
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