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Material Inputs in the Portuguese Economy: The DMI Approach
Paulo Ferrão*, Pedro Conceição*, Ângela Canas* IN+ - Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy ResearchIST - Instituto Superior Técnicohttp://in3.dem.ist.utl.pt
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Motivation
Material use leads to environmental damage
“One half to three quarters of annual resource inputs to industrial economies are returned to the environment as wastes within a year”,
The weight of nations, WRI (2000)
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Aggregation by mass
* Resource Flows: The Material Basis of Industrial Economies
Measure Material Flows
Material flow accounting (MFA): Adriaanse et al. (1997)*
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International trend
Increase material productivity by a factor of:2 in global terms
4 in next 20 to 30 years (EUROSTAT, 2001)*
10 in next 30 to 50 years (Factor 10 Club, 1995)**
Considered in national policies (e.g. The Netherlands, Austria) (Kuhndt and Liedtke, 1998)***Supported by European Union (factors 4 and 10) (Reijnders, 1998)****
* Economy-wide Flow Accounts and Derived Indicators. A Methodological Guide
** Carnoules Declaration
*** “Translating a Factor X into Praxis”, in Third ConAccount Meeting: Ecologizing Societal Metabolism
**** “The Factor X Debate: Setting Targets for Eco-Efficiency”, J. Industrial Ecology, 2(1)
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Scope
Why Portuga
l ?
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The Portuguese case study
Adapted from Bringezu and Schütz, 2000, Total Material Requirement of the European Union, European Environment Agency, Technical report No 55.
(1988-1997)
Humm! It looks different
!
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Evaluate material input, as DMI, of Portuguese Economy since 1960, based in national official data Decompose DMI evolution in the last decades to assess effects of GDP, population and employmentUnderstand the Portuguese evolution in an international context (typical trend for a developing country ?)
Objectives/ Contribution
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Portuguese DMI: Data
Spatial boundary: Continental Portugal and Azores and Madeira ArchipelagosYears: 1960, 1970, 1975-1998Sources: DMI: National Statistic Institute (INE)
Geological and Mining Institute (IGM)Forestery Agency (DGF)
Population, GDP: OECD’s National Accounts publications
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Non-renewable: Fuel ores Metallic ores Stone, clay, sand Non-metallic ores Marine salt
Renewable: Agricultural crops Grazing Forest (wood, cork) Fishing, Hunting Honey, Beeswax
Portuguese DMI: Data
DMI categories:
Domestic
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Portuguese DMI: Data
DMI categories: Imported (according with statistical categories)
Metals and its products
Wood, cork and its products
Products from chemical industry and other industries
Food, beverage products
Vegetable products
Live animals and animal products
Other
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Portuguese DMI: Evolution
1998 DMI: 174 million ton, 18 ton per capitaSignificative growth 1960-1998: 483% per capita
“We need revolution, not evolution”, ...may be.
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Portuguese DMI: Results
Mainly from Domestic Environment (70%)Increasing contribution from Imported materials
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Domestic DMI(1000 t)
1960 1970 1980 1990 1998
Non-renewable 5298,4 14789,1 40665,3 50205,1 94109,4 Ores 1673,7 1462,9 1222,7 1825,6 1278,6
Stone, clay, sand 3357,9 13119,0 39225,0 48275,0 92751,8
Marine salt 266,8 207,2 217,6 104,5 79,0
Renewable 21700 23562,8 23566 26810,9 30725,2 Plant 21340,8 23192,5 23287,1 26492,2 30511,9
Animal 359,2 370,3 278,9 318,7 213,3
Total 26998,5 38351,9 64231,4 77015,9 124834,7
Portuguese DMI: Domestic contr.
Domestic materials: Stone, clay, sand Biomass
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Portuguese DMI: Imported
Imported Materials: Mineral Products
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Decomposition analysis: Malaska (1998)*
Describe Material Flows
EMP
MF
POP
EMPPOPMF Sustainability and
Employment Identity
GDP
MF
POP
GDPPOPMF
Sustainability and Production Identity
* Moll, 1999, Reducing Societal Metabolism. A Sustainable Development Analysis
Sustainable development associated to MF < 0
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Contributions calculated by Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Method (Chung and Rhee, 2000)*:
Residual-free DMI decomposition
* A Residual-free Decomposition of the Sources of Carbon Dioxide Emissions
000
ln)(ln)(ln)(
GDPMF
GDPMF
L
POPGDP
POPGDP
LPOP
POPLMF ttt
0
0
ln)(
MFMF
MFMFL
t
t
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DMI variation for each temporal period (%) Contributions 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-1998 POP 1,3 15,2 1,5 0,9 GDP/POP 75,3 47,0 31,6 30,2 DMI/GDP -24,5 13,4 -1,4 27,2 DMI 52,2 75,6 31,7 58,2 POP 1,3 15,2 1,5 0,9 EMP/POP 4,2 3,5 16,8 -1,4 DMI/EMP 46,6 56,9 13,3 58,7 Note: Percent variation referring to the value of DMI in the first year of each period. GDP at constant prices.
DMI Decomposition
• DMI increases in each periodProduction equation:
Main effect: GDP/POP increases
DMI/GDP decreases in 1960 and 1980 decades
Employment equation: Main effect: DMI/EMP increases
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International disaggregation-1
1980-1990
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
Germ
any
Japan
Netherlands
Portugal
USA
DMI/GDP
DMI
DMI/EMP
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1985-1996
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Denmark Finland France Greece Irland Italy Portugal Spain Sw eden UK
DMI/GDP
DMI
DMI/EMP
International disaggregation-2
Employment in construction
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Conclusions
1960-1998: Significative DMI growth, no absolute dematerializationDMI originated mainly from domestic environmentTransition from renewable dominance to non-renewable dominanceBig dependence on Stone, clay and sand, associated to infraestructures development.
Examples: Highways, Wastewater treatment plants, Vasco da Gama bridge (Lisbon)
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Whishfull thinkings
We may have conditions to believe that conciousness of MFA results will contribute to shift the actual trend, before the critical turning point experienced for the other Industrialised nations ...
We should join in the 50th ISIE meeting, just to see...