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Material Inputs in the Portuguese Economy: The DMI Approach

Paulo Ferrão*, Pedro Conceição*, Ângela Canas* IN+ - Center for Innovation, Technology and Policy ResearchIST - Instituto Superior Técnicohttp://in3.dem.ist.utl.pt

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Motivation

Material use leads to environmental damage

“One half to three quarters of annual resource inputs to industrial economies are returned to the environment as wastes within a year”,

The weight of nations, WRI (2000)

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Aggregation by mass

* Resource Flows: The Material Basis of Industrial Economies

Measure Material Flows

Material flow accounting (MFA): Adriaanse et al. (1997)*

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International trend

Increase material productivity by a factor of:2 in global terms

4 in next 20 to 30 years (EUROSTAT, 2001)*

10 in next 30 to 50 years (Factor 10 Club, 1995)**

Considered in national policies (e.g. The Netherlands, Austria) (Kuhndt and Liedtke, 1998)***Supported by European Union (factors 4 and 10) (Reijnders, 1998)****

* Economy-wide Flow Accounts and Derived Indicators. A Methodological Guide

** Carnoules Declaration

*** “Translating a Factor X into Praxis”, in Third ConAccount Meeting: Ecologizing Societal Metabolism

**** “The Factor X Debate: Setting Targets for Eco-Efficiency”, J. Industrial Ecology, 2(1)

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Scope

Why Portuga

l ?

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The Portuguese case study

Adapted from Bringezu and Schütz, 2000, Total Material Requirement of the European Union, European Environment Agency, Technical report No 55.

(1988-1997)

Humm! It looks different

!

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Evaluate material input, as DMI, of Portuguese Economy since 1960, based in national official data Decompose DMI evolution in the last decades to assess effects of GDP, population and employmentUnderstand the Portuguese evolution in an international context (typical trend for a developing country ?)

Objectives/ Contribution

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Portuguese DMI: Data

Spatial boundary: Continental Portugal and Azores and Madeira ArchipelagosYears: 1960, 1970, 1975-1998Sources: DMI: National Statistic Institute (INE)

Geological and Mining Institute (IGM)Forestery Agency (DGF)

Population, GDP: OECD’s National Accounts publications

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Non-renewable: Fuel ores Metallic ores Stone, clay, sand Non-metallic ores Marine salt

Renewable: Agricultural crops Grazing Forest (wood, cork) Fishing, Hunting Honey, Beeswax

Portuguese DMI: Data

DMI categories:

Domestic

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Portuguese DMI: Data

DMI categories: Imported (according with statistical categories)

Metals and its products

Wood, cork and its products

Products from chemical industry and other industries

Food, beverage products

Vegetable products

Live animals and animal products

Other

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Portuguese DMI: Evolution

1998 DMI: 174 million ton, 18 ton per capitaSignificative growth 1960-1998: 483% per capita

“We need revolution, not evolution”, ...may be.

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Portuguese DMI: Results

Mainly from Domestic Environment (70%)Increasing contribution from Imported materials

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Domestic DMI(1000 t)

1960 1970 1980 1990 1998

Non-renewable 5298,4 14789,1 40665,3 50205,1 94109,4 Ores 1673,7 1462,9 1222,7 1825,6 1278,6

Stone, clay, sand 3357,9 13119,0 39225,0 48275,0 92751,8

Marine salt 266,8 207,2 217,6 104,5 79,0

Renewable 21700 23562,8 23566 26810,9 30725,2 Plant 21340,8 23192,5 23287,1 26492,2 30511,9

Animal 359,2 370,3 278,9 318,7 213,3

Total 26998,5 38351,9 64231,4 77015,9 124834,7

Portuguese DMI: Domestic contr.

Domestic materials: Stone, clay, sand Biomass

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Portuguese DMI: Imported

Imported Materials: Mineral Products

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Decomposition analysis: Malaska (1998)*

Describe Material Flows

EMP

MF

POP

EMPPOPMF Sustainability and

Employment Identity

GDP

MF

POP

GDPPOPMF

Sustainability and Production Identity

* Moll, 1999, Reducing Societal Metabolism. A Sustainable Development Analysis

Sustainable development associated to MF < 0

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Contributions calculated by Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index Method (Chung and Rhee, 2000)*:

Residual-free DMI decomposition

* A Residual-free Decomposition of the Sources of Carbon Dioxide Emissions

000

ln)(ln)(ln)(

GDPMF

GDPMF

L

POPGDP

POPGDP

LPOP

POPLMF ttt

0

0

ln)(

MFMF

MFMFL

t

t

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DMI variation for each temporal period (%) Contributions 1960-1970 1970-1980 1980-1990 1990-1998 POP 1,3 15,2 1,5 0,9 GDP/POP 75,3 47,0 31,6 30,2 DMI/GDP -24,5 13,4 -1,4 27,2 DMI 52,2 75,6 31,7 58,2 POP 1,3 15,2 1,5 0,9 EMP/POP 4,2 3,5 16,8 -1,4 DMI/EMP 46,6 56,9 13,3 58,7 Note: Percent variation referring to the value of DMI in the first year of each period. GDP at constant prices.

DMI Decomposition

• DMI increases in each periodProduction equation:

Main effect: GDP/POP increases

DMI/GDP decreases in 1960 and 1980 decades

Employment equation: Main effect: DMI/EMP increases

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International disaggregation-1

1980-1990

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Germ

any

Japan

Netherlands

Portugal

USA

DMI/GDP

DMI

DMI/EMP

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1985-1996

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

Denmark Finland France Greece Irland Italy Portugal Spain Sw eden UK

DMI/GDP

DMI

DMI/EMP

International disaggregation-2

Employment in construction

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Conclusions

1960-1998: Significative DMI growth, no absolute dematerializationDMI originated mainly from domestic environmentTransition from renewable dominance to non-renewable dominanceBig dependence on Stone, clay and sand, associated to infraestructures development.

Examples: Highways, Wastewater treatment plants, Vasco da Gama bridge (Lisbon)

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Whishfull thinkings

We may have conditions to believe that conciousness of MFA results will contribute to shift the actual trend, before the critical turning point experienced for the other Industrialised nations ...

We should join in the 50th ISIE meeting, just to see...