Microcars, Mega Promises –Overview of European Microcar Market
Vishwas Shankar, Industry Analyst
Automotive & Transportation
2
Functional Expertise
Specific functional expertise in:
• Competitive intelligence and benchmarking
• Market analysis and business opportunity assessment
• OEM strategy on new products market entry and product price positioning
Industry Expertise
Experience base covering a broad range of sectors, leveraging long-standing working relationships with leading
industry participants’ Senior Executives
• Electric vehicles and technologies
• Microcars
What I Bring to the Team
• Understanding of the electric vehicle market and Driver Assistance System technology and market
• Strategic thinking & strong analytical skills using quantitative techniques and management tools
• Ability to contribute as an individual and team player in structuring and executing complex engagements
Career Highlights
Having worked with leading firms and associations, carry a total of 7 years work experience as below:
• Assistant Manager - Purchase, Renault Nissan Technology and Business Centre India Private Ltd
• Deputy Manager - Purchase, Mahindra Renault Private Ltd.
• PGET, Mahindra & Mahindra Automotive
• Project Assistant (DLPD) and Teaching Assistant (M.E. Group), BITS – Pilani
• Intern, PED, Sundaram-Clayton Ltd
• Intern, Foundry, Perambur Locoworks
Education
• Master of Engineering in Manufacturing Systems Engineering, Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani
• Master of Science in Engineering Technology, Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani
Vishwas Shankar
Vishwas ShankarIndustry Analyst
Automotive & Transportation
Frost & SullivanEuropeChennai, India
3
• The analysis contained in this research service is based on:
� information collected through discussions with market participants and from secondary sources – Government, Industry
Associations, Companies and other Web Sites and Credible Sources
� Public announcements of Electric Vehicle programmes and plans by Vehicle Manufacturers, Suppliers and Others
� Frost & Sullivan’s published Research and Market and Technology Expertise
• The analysis contained in this research service is based on:
� information collected through discussions with market participants and from secondary sources – Government, Industry
Associations, Companies and other Web Sites and Credible Sources
� Public announcements of Electric Vehicle programmes and plans by Vehicle Manufacturers, Suppliers and Others
� Frost & Sullivan’s published Research and Market and Technology Expertise
All Types (Petrol, Diesel, Electric, Hybrid)All Types (Petrol, Diesel, Electric, Hybrid)Types of Drivetrain Covered
Microcars (Quadricycle and Sub-A Segment) Microcars (Quadricycle and Sub-A Segment) Vehicle Type
2011 to 20172011 to 2017Forecast Period
20102010Base Year
26 European Nations26 European NationsGeographic Coverage
Research Scope
Source: Frost & Sullivan
4
Definitions – The Study Scope Includes Quadricycles as well as the Newly Emerging Sub-A Segment
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Segment CategoryMaximum
Speed (km/h)
Maximum Continuous
Power (kW)
Weight (w/o weight of
gaseous fuel tank/bat.) (kg)
L6AeLight On-road Quadricycle
≤ 45 ≤ 4 ≤ 350
L6Be - ULight Mini-car for
Utility
L7AeHeavy on-road
Quadricycle
L7Be - UHeavy Mini-car
for Utility
≤ 45 ≤ 6 ≤ 350
> 45 ≤ 15 ≤ 400
> 45 ≤ 15 ≤ 400
L6Be - PLight Mini-car for
Passenger≤ 45 ≤ 6 ≤ 350
Passenger/Utility
1 or 2 people including driver
Loading bed area >
30% of vehicle length X
width
1 or 2 people including driver
Loading bed area >
30% of vehicle length X
width
1 or 2 people including driver
L7Be - PHeavy Mini-car for Passenger
> 45 ≤ 15 ≤ 550≤ 4 people including
driver
Sub-A Emerging ~75-150 15-40Over 550 to
~1100
2/4 people including
driver
A Basic ~200 25-50 Over ~9004/5 people including
driver
Mic
roca
r
Microcar Market: Definition (Europe), 2010
5
Microcars Market in Europe – Key Takeaways
A new class of vehicles emerging in the European automotive industry which is the Sub-A segment. It is positioned between the L7-Category of Vehicles (quadricycles) and the A-Segment Vehicles.
1
Microcar Market: Key Takeaways of Microcar Market (Europe), 2010-2017
35 new base models of 16 quadricycles and 19 Sub-A vehicles will be launched in the next three years in the microcars segment.
2
All the European OEMs or 7 out of the top 10 global OEMs will launch microcar models in Europe by 2013.
3
Nearly 100% of the quadricycles and 85% of the Sub-A vehicles announced will come in electric vehicle offering including hybrids.
4
Source: Frost & Sullivan
6
Microcar Vehicle Scenario Analysis: Potential sales of 280,000 units in Frost & Sullivan Scenario by 2017
Microcar Market: Scenario Analysis (Europe), 2007-2017
Scenario Analysis 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Optimistic 27,112 50,000 550,000
Frost & Sullivan 27,112 37,000 280,000
Conservative 27,112 28,000 220,000
Source: Frost & Sullivan
QUADRICYCLES ONLY QUADRICYCLES + SUB-A VEHICLES
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Year
Units
Conservative Scenario Frost & Sullivan Scenario Optimistic Scenario
CAGR (2010 – 2017): 48%
CAGR (2010 – 2017): 41%
CAGR (2010 – 2017): 39%
Since their announcements in 2010, there is a new category of sub-A vehicles emerging within the microcar segment Example - TATA Nano EV, Renault Twizy ZE and Peugeot BB1.
7
FutureExisting
16 Quadricycles in the Market Today and Expected to be Over 32 Models by 2013; Another 19 Sub-A Vehicles Will Launch in Next 3 years
Qu
ad
ric
yc
leS
ub
-A
AC-Zero
PSACity
Th!nk
i0n
PSA
Ka
Ford
107
PSA
C1
PSAPanda
Fiat
500
FiatAgilaOpel
Nano
Europa
TATA
Microcar
Aixam
Crossline
Aixam
Scouty
AixamRoadline
Aixam
Electric
Barooder
Chatenet
Speedino
Chatenet
Lacoste
PSA
CH26
Chatenet
Twizy Z.E.
Renault
SoniqueGrecav
Ambra
LigierNova
Ligier
Optimax
LigierBE Two
Ligier
Microcar Market: Planned Microcar Product Offerings (Europe), 2010-2017
MICROCAR
M.Go Electric
Microcar
ZENN
Microcar
E-up!
VW
Smart ED
Daimler
Bluezero E-Cell
Daimler
i-MiEV
Mitsubishi
iQ based
Toyota500 EV
Fiat
BB1
PSA
Leon Twin DriveSeat
Nano EV
TATA
POP
Kia
City
Lotus
Zero
Tazarri
E2 Plus
EVE
Queenstar
GEF Motor
EV-N
Honda
SC4PSimplicity
MicroTwingo
Renault
T27
Gordon Murray
NXR
REVA
Urban
Commuter
Rinspeed
City
FAM Auto
Smera
Lumeneo
Neoma
Lumeneo
NT3
Piaggio
Eclectic 2
Venturi
MyCar CoupeNewteon
?
Mio
Fiat
E--City
Pole Vehicule
du Futur
T25
Gordon
Murray
?
Townpod
Nissan
M.Go
Microcar
Ixo
Ligier
G-Wiz
REVA
BUDDYPure mobility
YDEA
Micro-Vett
Mega City
AixamXTOO
Ligier
Mycar
NewteonEstrimaNewteon
Friendly
HeuliezEKE Berlina
Grecav
F-City
Pole Vehicule
du Futur
Ixo Electric
Ligier
Key models on display at Paris Motor Show 2010
Land Glider
Infiniti
MyCar 4-seatNewteon
?
2 SeaterLittle Electric
4 Seater
Little Electric
Blowcar
Dario Di Camillo
NXGREVA
Source: Frost & Sullivan
8
Key Drivers and Restraints
Microcar Market: Market Drivers and Restraints (Europe), 2010-2017
Development of Mega cities& changing Mobility Trends
(30 Mega cities by 2025)
Dri
ve
rs
Growing interest in
urban vehicles with
low emissions and low fuel
consumption
Technology DevelopmentLi- ion batteries
Autonomy
(Prices to come
down by 50-70%)
Exemption from
city congestion charges of
1,600 Pounds equivalent
Re
str
ain
ts
Electric Quadricycles - Limited Speed or Power output
Inadequate charging infrastructure for
electric microcarsIncreased
Legislative controlsSafety concerns as
regulation does not require
Crash Testing
City Driving “sans permis” (no license)
Source: Frost & Sullivan
9
About 40% Microcars to be Launched in the Sub-16,000 Euro Price
Microcar Market: Proposed Microcars Length and Price Segmentation (Europe), 2010-2017
0
16
24
Pri
ce w
ith
ou
t S
ub
sid
y (
€‘0
00)
Length (mm)
8
2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,400
Twizy Z.E.
RenaultNT3
Piaggio
BB1
PSA
Smera
Lumeneo
NXG
REVA
BlowcarDario Di Camillo
Zero
Tazarri
MicroTwingo
Renault
Blowcar
Dario Di Camillo
M.Go Electric
Microcar
ZENN
Microcar
SC4PSimplicity
Nano EVTATA
NXRREVA
Nano Europa
TATA
City
Lotus
Lacoste
PSA
Source: Frost & Sullivan
10
High
Medium
Low
Country Attractiveness
Microcar Market: Top Ten Cities and Key Driving Market Attractiveness Factors (Europe), 2010
Urban Mobility, Congestion/Low-Emission Zones and Charging
Infrastructure Development Will Drive Microcar EV Uptake in Megacities
Top 10 Cities for Microcar EVs• Largest European city in terms of vehicle
sales, population etc – thus presents huge
opportunity for Microcar EVs
•Well defined roadmap for charging
infrastructure and support from Mayor and
Transport dept to make London the Global
Microcar EV Capital with purchase
subsidies, parking benefits, and various
exemptions• Hamburg is one of the important
markets in Germany, with many
initiatives including carsharing.
• There is also a better network of
charging infrastructure around
this region making Microcar EV
commuting more practical
• Low Emission Zones (which allow
only Euro 4 cars) is a major driver
for attractive Microcar EV sales
• Madrid is expected to be one of the Top 5 cities for
charging infrastructure development by 2015
given the efforts of Spanish Government
• It is also committed to support carsharing initiatives
by many including a major French-Japanese OEM.
• Paris will be home for
Microcar EVs closely
with maximum charging
stations expected by
2015
• The city is also
promoting an Microcar
EV carsharing
program, offering
various EV incentives
and good per-capita
income that can
boost sales
1. London 6. Cologne
2. Paris 7. Manchester
3. Berlin 8. Hamburg
4. Madrid 9. Munich
5. Birmingham 10. Oslo
• Oslo promotes Microcar EVs by giving
100% concession on the applicable
congestion charge for internal
combustion vehicles
Source: Frost & Sullivan
11
Microcar Market: Aixam Mega City (Europe), 2010
Case Study: Mega City from the Quadricycle Market Leader Aixam is Aggressive in Vehicle Features in the Category and Expected to Boost Future Quadricycle Unit Sales
Spacious city car and benefits from road tax exemptions, not so
aggressive range or acceleration.
Mega City
• Length = 2,897 mm
• Width = 1,474 mm
• Height = 1,470 mm
• Wheelbase = 1,960 mm
• Turning circle = 4 m
Dimensions
• Range – 60 to 80 km
• Top Speed – 65 km/h
• 0-50 km/h – about 17 seconds
Range, Speed & Acceleration
• 645 kg inclusive of battery
• 2 or 4 seater options
• 3 doors
• Maximum of 800 litres
Vehicle Weight, Seating & Luggage Capacity
• 100% Zero Emission Vehicle
• 8.2 kWh AGM lead batteries
• 4 kW electric motor
• TBA N.m. wheel torque
Battery and Electric Motor
• Attractive design
• Sporty looks
• Tough aluminium safety structure
• 100% recyclable material usage
Design Styling
• Electric Heater with 3 speed blower
• Sudden deceleration - automatically
illuminating hazard lights
• Tinted windows
• Econometer light (high-consumption
pre-warning)
• Central door locking
• 3 point inertia seat belts
• Rear fog, Reversing lights
Vehicle Features
Other Aixam MEGA Models
Mega Body Aluminium
Mega City Pro
Source: Frost & Sullivan
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The Average Top Speed of Quadricycles Announced is 65 km/h and About 85% of them Will Have Lengths Between 2.1 m and 3.1 m
Manufacturer ModelBattery / ICE /
HybridLength (mm)
Motor Power (kW)
All Electric Range (km)
Top Speed (km/h)
Microcar ZENN Electric 3,068 5.7 100 40
Tazzari Zero Battery 2,880 15 140 100
Dario Di Camillostudios
Blowcar Battery / ICE 3,000 12 180 50
Simplicity SC4P Battery 3,080 8 200 90
Infiniti Land Glider Battery 3,100 TBA TBA TBA
Little Electric 2 / 4 Seat Battery 2,950 4 100 45
Microcar M.Go Battery 3,026 4-7.5 80-150 45-70
Renault Twizy Z.E. Battery 2,303 4-15 100 45-75
REVA NXR Battery 3,280 25 160 104
Lotus City Car Hybrid 3,400 162 60 120
TataNano EuropaEV
Battery 3,090 40 120 110
Microcar Market: Specifications of Key Quadricycles Planned (Europe), 2010-2017
Source: Frost & Sullivan
13
More than 90% of the OEMs Strongly Agree Towards Having Additional Safety Features and Following Tighter Emission Norms to Drive the Microcar Segment
Quadricycle OEM5
Mainstream OEM5 (2 Wheeler)
Quadricycle OEM4
Quadricycle OEM3
Quadricycle OEM2
Mainstream OEM4
OEMs Perspective Tighter CO2 emission norms will drive the microcar segment?
Safety features as a key concern will be part of all microcars?
Mainstream OEM1
Mainstream OEM2
Mainstream OEM3
Quadricycle OEM1
Source: Frost & Sullivan
Microcar Market: Manufacturers Future Outlook on Microcar Segment (Europe), 2010-2017
Strong Perception Weak Perception
14
Key Recommendations
Vehicle Manufacturers
Use of light weight
materials to design
powertrain & chassis systems to
help weight
reduction
Battery powered microcars – ideal
solution for eco
friendly urban
transportation
Microcars to offer significant
sales potential – to new
avenues such as car sharing /
car pooling, urban integrated mobility, public rental fleets, first
and last mile connectivity
Sharing of
components /
systems between
A segment and
microcars to help reduce cost
Advanced engine
technologies and
electronic / by-wire
chassis technologies to
offer higher fuel efficiency, lower
emissions and
significant space and
design flexibility
Source: Frost & Sullivan
15
Electric Vehicles Research Published 2010
Sl. No Published Title Research Code
1 Global Electric Vehicles Lithium-ion Battery Second Life and Recycling Market Analysis M5B6-18
2Electric Vehicles Unplugged 2010 New Business Models and Infrastructure Development Trends Presentations from Frost & Sullivan’s Interactive 2 Day Workshop and Networking Event 2010
M67A-18
3 Strategic Analysis of the Chinese Electric Vehicle Market M65D-18
4 Electric Vehicles: European Voice of the Consumer Study- Fleet Managers and Drivers M48B-18
5 Electric Vehicles: European Voice of the Customer Study- Private User Passenger Vehicle M444-18
6 360 Degree Perspective of the Global Electric Vehicle Market - 2010 Edition M5B7-18
7 Strategic Dashboard of Global Electric Vehicle Specifications M5BF-18
8 Global Electric Vehicle Associations and Incentives Database M546-18
9 Global Electric Vehicles Market Forecast Database M648-18
10 Strategic Analysis of the European EV Charging Station Infrastructure M616-18
11 Global Electric Vehicles Incentives Database Q4 2010 Update 9832-18
12Comparative Analysis of European OEMs Electric Vehicle Launch Strategy and Product and Price Positioning
M682-18
13 Strategic Analysis of European and North American Market for Electric Commercial Vehicles M4DE-18
14 Strategic Analysis of APAC Market for Neighborhood Electric Vehicles P41D-18
15 Strategic Analysis of Battery Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Korea P4CA-18
16 Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Korea P475-18
16
Upcoming Electric Vehicles Research Plan 2011
Sl. No Planned Topic Regional Scope Deliverable Type
1 360 Degree Analysis of the Eastern European Passenger Electric Vehicles Market Russia CEE Megatrend
2 Strategic Analysis of the Market for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Brazil LATAM Megatrend
3Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in North America
NA ME Research
4Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Europe
EU ME Research
5Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in China
China ME Research
6Strategic Technology and Market Analysis of Electric Vehicle Charging Station Infrastructure in North America
NA Megatrend
7 Executive Report on Global Electric Vehicle Forecasts and Trends Global Megatrend
8Comparative Analysis of North American OEMs Electric Vehicles Launch Strategy and Product and Price Positioning
NA Megatrend
9 Analysis of Make or Buy OEM Strategies around Electric Vehicle Components Global ME Research
10 Analysis Electric Vehicle Platform Strategies of OEMs Global ME Research
11 2011 Global Electric Vehicles 360 Degree Perspective of the Market EU ME Research
12 Strategic Analysis of Hybrid Electric Vehicles Market in China China ME Research
13 Strategic Analysis of EV IT Infrastructure and Billing Systems EU NA ME Research
14 European Voice of Customer Study on Adoption and Interest in Electric Vehicles EU Megatrend
17
Voting
1. Will the Microcar segment reach 125,000-150,000 unit sales by 2015?a) Strongly Agree, lead by sub-A segment vehicles salesb) Strongly Agree, lead by light and heavy quadricycles salesc) Maybe it can grow to the above levels by 2015d) Too early to forecast (as the potential for growth could be more)e) Strongly disagree on the above numbers for 2015.
2. Would you agree to sub-A segment of vehicles homologated under Quadricycles or M1 Category (e.g. TATA Nano, Gordon Murray T.27)
a) As a Quadricycle (laws unchanged)b) As M1 Category (laws unchanged)c) As a Quadricycle (laws amended) d) As M1 Category (laws amended)e) Entire new set of homologation laws
3. Quadricycles and sub-A vehicles segment will have end consumers largely coming from which of the following:
a) Male 40-60%, Female 40-60% and Largely in the Age group of 16-25b) Male 40-60%, Female 40-60% and Largely in the Age group of 25-35c) Male 40-60%, Female 40-60% and Largely in the Age group of 35-45d) Male 20-30%, Female 70-80% and Largely in the Age group of 16-30e) Male 70-80%, Female 20-30% and Largely in the Age group of 16-30
18
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