microcars, mega promises – overview of european microcar market

Microcars, Mega Promises –Overview of European Microcar Market

Vishwas Shankar, Industry Analyst

Automotive & Transportation

2

Functional Expertise

Specific functional expertise in:

• Competitive intelligence and benchmarking

• Market analysis and business opportunity assessment

• OEM strategy on new products market entry and product price positioning

Industry Expertise

Experience base covering a broad range of sectors, leveraging long-standing working relationships with leading

industry participants’ Senior Executives

• Electric vehicles and technologies

• Microcars

What I Bring to the Team

• Understanding of the electric vehicle market and Driver Assistance System technology and market

• Strategic thinking & strong analytical skills using quantitative techniques and management tools

• Ability to contribute as an individual and team player in structuring and executing complex engagements

Career Highlights

Having worked with leading firms and associations, carry a total of 7 years work experience as below:

• Assistant Manager - Purchase, Renault Nissan Technology and Business Centre India Private Ltd

• Deputy Manager - Purchase, Mahindra Renault Private Ltd.

• PGET, Mahindra & Mahindra Automotive

• Project Assistant (DLPD) and Teaching Assistant (M.E. Group), BITS – Pilani

• Intern, PED, Sundaram-Clayton Ltd

• Intern, Foundry, Perambur Locoworks

Education

• Master of Engineering in Manufacturing Systems Engineering, Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani

• Master of Science in Engineering Technology, Birla Institute of Technology and Science, Pilani

Vishwas Shankar

Vishwas ShankarIndustry Analyst

Automotive & Transportation

Frost & SullivanEuropeChennai, India

3

• The analysis contained in this research service is based on:

� information collected through discussions with market participants and from secondary sources – Government, Industry

Associations, Companies and other Web Sites and Credible Sources

� Public announcements of Electric Vehicle programmes and plans by Vehicle Manufacturers, Suppliers and Others

� Frost & Sullivan’s published Research and Market and Technology Expertise

• The analysis contained in this research service is based on:

� information collected through discussions with market participants and from secondary sources – Government, Industry

Associations, Companies and other Web Sites and Credible Sources

� Public announcements of Electric Vehicle programmes and plans by Vehicle Manufacturers, Suppliers and Others

� Frost & Sullivan’s published Research and Market and Technology Expertise

All Types (Petrol, Diesel, Electric, Hybrid)All Types (Petrol, Diesel, Electric, Hybrid)Types of Drivetrain Covered

Microcars (Quadricycle and Sub-A Segment) Microcars (Quadricycle and Sub-A Segment) Vehicle Type

2011 to 20172011 to 2017Forecast Period

20102010Base Year

26 European Nations26 European NationsGeographic Coverage

Research Scope

Source: Frost & Sullivan

4

Definitions – The Study Scope Includes Quadricycles as well as the Newly Emerging Sub-A Segment


Segment CategoryMaximum

Speed (km/h)

Maximum Continuous

Power (kW)

Weight (w/o weight of

gaseous fuel tank/bat.) (kg)

L6AeLight On-road Quadricycle

≤ 45 ≤ 4 ≤ 350

L6Be - ULight Mini-car for

Utility

L7AeHeavy on-road

Quadricycle

L7Be - UHeavy Mini-car

for Utility

≤ 45 ≤ 6 ≤ 350

> 45 ≤ 15 ≤ 400

> 45 ≤ 15 ≤ 400

L6Be - PLight Mini-car for

Passenger≤ 45 ≤ 6 ≤ 350

Passenger/Utility

1 or 2 people including driver

Loading bed area >

30% of vehicle length X

width


Loading bed area >

30% of vehicle length X

width


L7Be - PHeavy Mini-car for Passenger

> 45 ≤ 15 ≤ 550≤ 4 people including

driver

Sub-A Emerging ~75-150 15-40Over 550 to

~1100

2/4 people including

driver

A Basic ~200 25-50 Over ~9004/5 people including

driver

Mic

roca

r

Microcar Market: Definition (Europe), 2010

5

Microcars Market in Europe – Key Takeaways

A new class of vehicles emerging in the European automotive industry which is the Sub-A segment. It is positioned between the L7-Category of Vehicles (quadricycles) and the A-Segment Vehicles.

1

Microcar Market: Key Takeaways of Microcar Market (Europe), 2010-2017

35 new base models of 16 quadricycles and 19 Sub-A vehicles will be launched in the next three years in the microcars segment.

2

All the European OEMs or 7 out of the top 10 global OEMs will launch microcar models in Europe by 2013.

3

Nearly 100% of the quadricycles and 85% of the Sub-A vehicles announced will come in electric vehicle offering including hybrids.

4


6

Microcar Vehicle Scenario Analysis: Potential sales of 280,000 units in Frost & Sullivan Scenario by 2017

Microcar Market: Scenario Analysis (Europe), 2007-2017

Scenario Analysis 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Optimistic 27,112 50,000 550,000

Frost & Sullivan 27,112 37,000 280,000

Conservative 27,112 28,000 220,000


QUADRICYCLES ONLY QUADRICYCLES + SUB-A VEHICLES

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Year

Units

Conservative Scenario Frost & Sullivan Scenario Optimistic Scenario

CAGR (2010 – 2017): 48%

CAGR (2010 – 2017): 41%

CAGR (2010 – 2017): 39%

Since their announcements in 2010, there is a new category of sub-A vehicles emerging within the microcar segment Example - TATA Nano EV, Renault Twizy ZE and Peugeot BB1.

7

FutureExisting

16 Quadricycles in the Market Today and Expected to be Over 32 Models by 2013; Another 19 Sub-A Vehicles Will Launch in Next 3 years

Qu

ad

ric

yc

leS

ub

-A

AC-Zero

PSACity

Th!nk

i0n

PSA

Ka

Ford

107

PSA

C1

PSAPanda

Fiat

500

FiatAgilaOpel

Nano

Europa

TATA

Microcar

Aixam

Crossline

Aixam

Scouty

AixamRoadline

Aixam

Electric

Barooder

Chatenet

Speedino

Chatenet

Lacoste

PSA

CH26

Chatenet

Twizy Z.E.

Renault

SoniqueGrecav

Ambra

LigierNova

Ligier

Optimax

LigierBE Two

Ligier

Microcar Market: Planned Microcar Product Offerings (Europe), 2010-2017

MICROCAR

M.Go Electric

Microcar

ZENN

Microcar

E-up!

VW

Smart ED

Daimler

Bluezero E-Cell

Daimler

i-MiEV

Mitsubishi

iQ based

Toyota500 EV

Fiat

BB1

PSA

Leon Twin DriveSeat

Nano EV

TATA

POP

Kia

City

Lotus

Zero

Tazarri

E2 Plus

EVE

Queenstar

GEF Motor

EV-N

Honda

SC4PSimplicity

MicroTwingo

Renault

T27

Gordon Murray

NXR

REVA

Urban

Commuter

Rinspeed

City

FAM Auto

Smera

Lumeneo

Neoma

Lumeneo

NT3

Piaggio

Eclectic 2

Venturi

MyCar CoupeNewteon

?

Mio

Fiat

E--City

Pole Vehicule

du Futur

T25

Gordon

Murray

?

Townpod

Nissan

M.Go

Microcar

Ixo

Ligier

G-Wiz

REVA

BUDDYPure mobility

YDEA

Micro-Vett

Mega City

AixamXTOO

Ligier

Mycar

NewteonEstrimaNewteon

Friendly

HeuliezEKE Berlina

Grecav

F-City

Pole Vehicule

du Futur

Ixo Electric

Ligier

Key models on display at Paris Motor Show 2010

Land Glider

Infiniti

MyCar 4-seatNewteon

?

2 SeaterLittle Electric

4 Seater

Little Electric

Blowcar

Dario Di Camillo

NXGREVA


8

Key Drivers and Restraints

Microcar Market: Market Drivers and Restraints (Europe), 2010-2017

Development of Mega cities& changing Mobility Trends

(30 Mega cities by 2025)

Dri

ve

rs

Growing interest in

urban vehicles with

low emissions and low fuel

consumption

Technology DevelopmentLi- ion batteries

Autonomy

(Prices to come

down by 50-70%)

Exemption from

city congestion charges of

1,600 Pounds equivalent

Re

str

ain

ts

Electric Quadricycles - Limited Speed or Power output

Inadequate charging infrastructure for

electric microcarsIncreased

Legislative controlsSafety concerns as

regulation does not require

Crash Testing

City Driving “sans permis” (no license)


9

About 40% Microcars to be Launched in the Sub-16,000 Euro Price

Microcar Market: Proposed Microcars Length and Price Segmentation (Europe), 2010-2017

0

16

24

Pri

ce w

ith

ou

t S

ub

sid

y (

€‘0

00)

Length (mm)

8

2,400 2,600 2,800 3,000 3,200 3,400

Twizy Z.E.

RenaultNT3

Piaggio

BB1

PSA

Smera

Lumeneo

NXG

REVA

BlowcarDario Di Camillo

Zero

Tazarri

MicroTwingo

Renault

Blowcar

Dario Di Camillo

M.Go Electric

Microcar

ZENN

Microcar

SC4PSimplicity

Nano EVTATA

NXRREVA

Nano Europa

TATA

City

Lotus

Lacoste

PSA


10

High

Medium

Low

Country Attractiveness

Microcar Market: Top Ten Cities and Key Driving Market Attractiveness Factors (Europe), 2010

Urban Mobility, Congestion/Low-Emission Zones and Charging

Infrastructure Development Will Drive Microcar EV Uptake in Megacities

Top 10 Cities for Microcar EVs• Largest European city in terms of vehicle

sales, population etc – thus presents huge

opportunity for Microcar EVs

•Well defined roadmap for charging

infrastructure and support from Mayor and

Transport dept to make London the Global

Microcar EV Capital with purchase

subsidies, parking benefits, and various

exemptions• Hamburg is one of the important

markets in Germany, with many

initiatives including carsharing.

• There is also a better network of

charging infrastructure around

this region making Microcar EV

commuting more practical

• Low Emission Zones (which allow

only Euro 4 cars) is a major driver

for attractive Microcar EV sales

• Madrid is expected to be one of the Top 5 cities for

charging infrastructure development by 2015

given the efforts of Spanish Government

• It is also committed to support carsharing initiatives

by many including a major French-Japanese OEM.

• Paris will be home for

Microcar EVs closely

with maximum charging

stations expected by

2015

• The city is also

promoting an Microcar

EV carsharing

program, offering

various EV incentives

and good per-capita

income that can

boost sales

1. London 6. Cologne

2. Paris 7. Manchester

3. Berlin 8. Hamburg

4. Madrid 9. Munich

5. Birmingham 10. Oslo

• Oslo promotes Microcar EVs by giving

100% concession on the applicable

congestion charge for internal

combustion vehicles


11

Microcar Market: Aixam Mega City (Europe), 2010

Case Study: Mega City from the Quadricycle Market Leader Aixam is Aggressive in Vehicle Features in the Category and Expected to Boost Future Quadricycle Unit Sales

Spacious city car and benefits from road tax exemptions, not so

aggressive range or acceleration.

Mega City

• Length = 2,897 mm

• Width = 1,474 mm

• Height = 1,470 mm

• Wheelbase = 1,960 mm

• Turning circle = 4 m

Dimensions

• Range – 60 to 80 km

• Top Speed – 65 km/h

• 0-50 km/h – about 17 seconds

Range, Speed & Acceleration

• 645 kg inclusive of battery

• 2 or 4 seater options

• 3 doors

• Maximum of 800 litres

Vehicle Weight, Seating & Luggage Capacity

• 100% Zero Emission Vehicle

• 8.2 kWh AGM lead batteries

• 4 kW electric motor

• TBA N.m. wheel torque

Battery and Electric Motor

• Attractive design

• Sporty looks

• Tough aluminium safety structure

• 100% recyclable material usage

Design Styling

• Electric Heater with 3 speed blower

• Sudden deceleration - automatically

illuminating hazard lights

• Tinted windows

• Econometer light (high-consumption

pre-warning)

• Central door locking

• 3 point inertia seat belts

• Rear fog, Reversing lights

Vehicle Features

Other Aixam MEGA Models

Mega Body Aluminium

Mega City Pro


12

The Average Top Speed of Quadricycles Announced is 65 km/h and About 85% of them Will Have Lengths Between 2.1 m and 3.1 m

Manufacturer ModelBattery / ICE /

HybridLength (mm)

Motor Power (kW)

All Electric Range (km)

Top Speed (km/h)

Microcar ZENN Electric 3,068 5.7 100 40

Tazzari Zero Battery 2,880 15 140 100

Dario Di Camillostudios

Blowcar Battery / ICE 3,000 12 180 50

Simplicity SC4P Battery 3,080 8 200 90

Infiniti Land Glider Battery 3,100 TBA TBA TBA

Little Electric 2 / 4 Seat Battery 2,950 4 100 45

Microcar M.Go Battery 3,026 4-7.5 80-150 45-70

Renault Twizy Z.E. Battery 2,303 4-15 100 45-75

REVA NXR Battery 3,280 25 160 104

Lotus City Car Hybrid 3,400 162 60 120

TataNano EuropaEV

Battery 3,090 40 120 110

Microcar Market: Specifications of Key Quadricycles Planned (Europe), 2010-2017


13

More than 90% of the OEMs Strongly Agree Towards Having Additional Safety Features and Following Tighter Emission Norms to Drive the Microcar Segment

Quadricycle OEM5

Mainstream OEM5 (2 Wheeler)

Quadricycle OEM4

Quadricycle OEM3

Quadricycle OEM2

Mainstream OEM4

OEMs Perspective Tighter CO2 emission norms will drive the microcar segment?

Safety features as a key concern will be part of all microcars?

Mainstream OEM1

Mainstream OEM2

Mainstream OEM3

Quadricycle OEM1


Microcar Market: Manufacturers Future Outlook on Microcar Segment (Europe), 2010-2017

Strong Perception Weak Perception

14

Key Recommendations

Vehicle Manufacturers

Use of light weight

materials to design

powertrain & chassis systems to

help weight

reduction

Battery powered microcars – ideal

solution for eco

friendly urban

transportation

Microcars to offer significant

sales potential – to new

avenues such as car sharing /

car pooling, urban integrated mobility, public rental fleets, first

and last mile connectivity

Sharing of

components /

systems between

A segment and

microcars to help reduce cost

Advanced engine

technologies and

electronic / by-wire

chassis technologies to

offer higher fuel efficiency, lower

emissions and

significant space and

design flexibility


15

Electric Vehicles Research Published 2010

Sl. No Published Title Research Code

1 Global Electric Vehicles Lithium-ion Battery Second Life and Recycling Market Analysis M5B6-18

2Electric Vehicles Unplugged 2010 New Business Models and Infrastructure Development Trends Presentations from Frost & Sullivan’s Interactive 2 Day Workshop and Networking Event 2010

M67A-18

3 Strategic Analysis of the Chinese Electric Vehicle Market M65D-18

4 Electric Vehicles: European Voice of the Consumer Study- Fleet Managers and Drivers M48B-18

5 Electric Vehicles: European Voice of the Customer Study- Private User Passenger Vehicle M444-18

6 360 Degree Perspective of the Global Electric Vehicle Market - 2010 Edition M5B7-18

7 Strategic Dashboard of Global Electric Vehicle Specifications M5BF-18

8 Global Electric Vehicle Associations and Incentives Database M546-18

9 Global Electric Vehicles Market Forecast Database M648-18

10 Strategic Analysis of the European EV Charging Station Infrastructure M616-18

11 Global Electric Vehicles Incentives Database Q4 2010 Update 9832-18

12Comparative Analysis of European OEMs Electric Vehicle Launch Strategy and Product and Price Positioning

M682-18

13 Strategic Analysis of European and North American Market for Electric Commercial Vehicles M4DE-18

14 Strategic Analysis of APAC Market for Neighborhood Electric Vehicles P41D-18

15 Strategic Analysis of Battery Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Korea P4CA-18

16 Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Korea P475-18

16

Upcoming Electric Vehicles Research Plan 2011

Sl. No Planned Topic Regional Scope Deliverable Type

1 360 Degree Analysis of the Eastern European Passenger Electric Vehicles Market Russia CEE Megatrend

2 Strategic Analysis of the Market for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Brazil LATAM Megatrend

3Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in North America

NA ME Research

4Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in Europe

EU ME Research

5Strategic Analysis of Electric Motor Technologies for Electric and Hybrid Vehicles in China

China ME Research

6Strategic Technology and Market Analysis of Electric Vehicle Charging Station Infrastructure in North America

NA Megatrend

7 Executive Report on Global Electric Vehicle Forecasts and Trends Global Megatrend

8Comparative Analysis of North American OEMs Electric Vehicles Launch Strategy and Product and Price Positioning

NA Megatrend

9 Analysis of Make or Buy OEM Strategies around Electric Vehicle Components Global ME Research

10 Analysis Electric Vehicle Platform Strategies of OEMs Global ME Research

11 2011 Global Electric Vehicles 360 Degree Perspective of the Market EU ME Research

12 Strategic Analysis of Hybrid Electric Vehicles Market in China China ME Research

13 Strategic Analysis of EV IT Infrastructure and Billing Systems EU NA ME Research

14 European Voice of Customer Study on Adoption and Interest in Electric Vehicles EU Megatrend

17

Voting

1. Will the Microcar segment reach 125,000-150,000 unit sales by 2015?a) Strongly Agree, lead by sub-A segment vehicles salesb) Strongly Agree, lead by light and heavy quadricycles salesc) Maybe it can grow to the above levels by 2015d) Too early to forecast (as the potential for growth could be more)e) Strongly disagree on the above numbers for 2015.

2. Would you agree to sub-A segment of vehicles homologated under Quadricycles or M1 Category (e.g. TATA Nano, Gordon Murray T.27)

a) As a Quadricycle (laws unchanged)b) As M1 Category (laws unchanged)c) As a Quadricycle (laws amended) d) As M1 Category (laws amended)e) Entire new set of homologation laws

3. Quadricycles and sub-A vehicles segment will have end consumers largely coming from which of the following:

a) Male 40-60%, Female 40-60% and Largely in the Age group of 16-25b) Male 40-60%, Female 40-60% and Largely in the Age group of 25-35c) Male 40-60%, Female 40-60% and Largely in the Age group of 35-45d) Male 20-30%, Female 70-80% and Largely in the Age group of 16-30e) Male 70-80%, Female 20-30% and Largely in the Age group of 16-30

18

Next Steps

� Request a proposal for Growth Partnership Services or Growth Consulting Services to support you and your team to accelerate the growth of your company. ([email protected])

� Join us at our annual Growth, Innovation, and Leadership 2011: A Frost & Sullivan Global Congress on Corporate Growth occurring in London on 17 – 18 May 2011

(www.gil-global.com)

� Register for Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Opportunity Newsletter and keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities (www.frost.com/news)

19

Your Feedback is Important to Us

Growth Forecasts?

Competitive Structure?

Emerging Trends?

Strategic Recommendations?

Other?

Please inform us by taking our survey.

What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan?

Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Consulting can assist with your growth strategies

20

http://twitter.com/frost_sullivan

Follow Frost & Sullivan on Facebook, LinkedIn, SlideShare and Twitter

http://www.facebook.com/FrostandSullivan

http://www.linkedin.com/companies/4506

http://www.slideshare.net/FrostandSullivan

21

For Additional Information

Joanna Lewandowska

Corporate Communications Manager

Europe

+48 22 390 41 46

[email protected]

Cyril Cromier

Sales Director

Europe

+33 1 42 81 22 44

[email protected]

Sarwant Singh

Partner

Global A&T

+44 207 915 7843

[email protected]