Download - Mitigation at the Sector Level
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Mitigation at the Sector Level
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Emissions by End UseEnd Use % End Use %
Road (cars, Trucks) 9.9 Cement 3.8
Air 1.6 Other Industry 5.0
Rail, Ship, Transport 2.3 Transmission and Distribution Losses
1.9
Residential Buildings 9.9 Coal Mining 1.4
Commercial Buildings 5.4 Oil & Gas Extraction, Refining, Etc 6.3
Unallocated Fuel Combustion 3.5 Forestation 18.2
Iron and Steel 3.2 Agricultural Energy Use 1.4
Aluminum/Non-Ferrous Metals 1.4 Agricultural Soils 6.0
Machinery 1.0 Livestock & Manure 5.1
Pulp, Paper, Printing 1.0 Rice Cultivation 1.5
Food, Tobacco 1.0 Other Agriculture 0.9
Chemicals 4.8 Landfills 2.0
Wastewater, Other Waste 1.6
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How would you mitigate emissions from the following sectors?
• Electricity?• Transportation?• Industrial manufacturing?• Land Use?
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How would you mitigate emissions from the following sectors?
Electricity?Transportation?Industrial manufacturing?
EfficiencyFuel switchingReduce consumption
Land UseEfficiencyProduct switchingReduce consumption
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Should we be focusing on global mitigation or take a sector-by-sector
approach?• We’ll come back to this after we cover the
Kyoto Protocol
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Wedges Concept
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What is a “Wedge”?A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr. The strategy has already been commercialized at scale somewhere.
1 GtC/yr
50 years
Total = 25 Gigatons carbon
Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. This is 2.5 trillion dollars at $100/tC.
A “solution” to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge.
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Energy Efficiency & Conservation (4)
CO2 Capture & Storage (3)
Stabilization Triangle
Renewable Fuels& Electricity (4)
Forest and Soil Storage (2)
Fuel Switching(1)
15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories
Nuclear Fission (1)
2007 20578 GtC/y
16 GtC/y
TriangleStabilization
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A few caveats
• Some of the proposals have moderate to significant environmental or political downsides– E.g., nuclear waste storage not yet resolved
• Actual emissions reductions subject to dispute– E.g., some studies suggest that life cycle emissions
of natural gas production from shale are greater than coal over 20-year period; biofuels another area of controversy
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Double the fuel efficiency of the world’s cars or halve miles traveled
Produce today’s electric capacity with double today’s efficiency
Use best efficiency practices in all residential and commercial buildings
Replacing all the world’s incandescent bulbs with CFL’s would provide 1/4 of one wedge
Efficiency
There are about 600 million cars today, with 2 billion projected for 2055
Average coal plant efficiency is 32% today
E, T, H / $
Photos courtesy of Ford Motor Co., DOE, EPA
Sector s affected:
E = Electricity, T =Transport, H = Heat
Cost based on scale of $ to $$$
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Substitute 1400 natural gas electric plants for an equal number of coal-fired facilities
A wedge requires an amount of natural gas equal to that used for all purposes today
Fuel Switching
Photo by J.C. Willett (U.S. Geological Survey).
E, H / $
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Implement CCS at
• 800 GW coal electric plants or• 1600 GW natural gas electric
plants or• 180 coal synfuels plants or• 10 times today’s capacity of
hydrogen plants
Graphic courtesy of Alberta Geological Survey
Carbon Capture & Storage
There are currently three storage projects that each inject 1 million tons of CO2 per year – by 2055 need 3500.
E, T, H / $$
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Triple the world’s nuclear electricity capacity by 2055
Nuclear Electricity
Graphic courtesy of NRC
The rate of installation required for a wedge from electricity is equal to the global rate of nuclear expansion from 1975-1990.
E/ $$
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Wind Electricity
Install 1 million 2 MW windmills to replace coal-based electricity, ORUse 2 million windmills to produce hydrogen fuel
Photo courtesy of DOE
A wedge worth of wind electricity will require increasing current capacity by a factor of 30
E, T, H / $-$$
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Solar Electricity
Photos courtesy of DOE Photovoltaics Program
Install 20,000 square kilometers for dedicated use by 2054
A wedge of solar electricity would mean increasing current capacity 700 times
E / $$$
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Biofuels
Photo courtesy of NREL
Using current practices, one wedge requires planting an area the size of India with biofuels crops
Scale up current global ethanol production by 30 times
T, H / $$
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Natural Sinks
Photos courtesy of NREL, SUNY Stonybrook, United Nations FAO
Eliminate tropical deforestation
OR
Plant new forests over an area the size of the continental U.S.
OR
Use conservation tillage on all cropland (1600 Mha)
B / $
Conservation tillage is currently practiced on less than 10% of global cropland
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International Treaties and the Climate Change Negotiations
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Most Important Concepts Underlying International Lawmaking??
• State Sovereignty– Each state is a sovereign actor, and states will
protect their sovereignty to the greatest extent when developing treaties
• Consent– Must have evidence of consent to “bind” a state –
whatever “binding” may mean – to an international obligation
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The Climate Change Treaty Process and Politics
• 2 Treaties– UNFCCC (1992)– Kyoto Protocol (1997)
• = a protocol to the UNFCCC• UNFCCC provides the framework, Kyoto Protocol helps
to implement it
• Parties meet multiple times/year + have one official meeting each year = Conference of the Parties
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The Politics
• Developed v. developing• Divisions within developing countries• EU v. U.S.• Economies in transition
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The Politics
• Developed v. developing
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The Politics
• Developed v. developing– Historical emissions v. current and future
emissions– Industrial emissions v. land use emissions– Wealth/development v. desire to develop– Cause of the harm v. will suffer much of the harm
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The Politics
• Divisions within developing countries– AOSIS (small island nations)– OPEC (oil producing nations)– China– India– Brazil + other heavily forested countries– Africa/ least developed countries
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The Politics
• Divisions within developing countries– AOSIS (small island nations)
• Big GHG reductions + $ for adaptation– OPEC (oil producing nations)
• No reductions + $ if lose oil production– China
• Reductions only if does not affect growth – developed countries go first
– India• Same as China
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The Politics
• Divisions within developing countries– Brazil + other heavily forested countries
• Reductions from industrial sources, not forests• But if from reduced deforestation, want $
– Africa/ least developed countries• Want $ and development assistance
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The Politics
• EU v. U.S.– EU wants emissions reductions, but wants to
achieve those reductions as a region, not on country-by-country basis
– U.S. opposes emissions reductions, especially if developing countries like China do not have obligations
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The Politics• Economies in transition (EITs) = countries that
were part of the former Soviet Union– When the Soviet Union collapsed, so did
their economies– They are “industrialized,” but have damaged
economies– The have reduced emissions because of
collapse– They don’t have any money
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Economies in Transition – Hot Air
1985 1989 1995 2008-20120%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Column1"Hot air"Russia's emissions
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The Climate Change Treaty Process and Politics
• When you consider the politics, it’s amazing the parties reached any agreement at all, but they did– UNFCCC
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UNFCCC
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UNFCCC
• 1992 treaty• “Framework” treaty – designed to establish the
basic structure and goals of the Parties– Often very vague about specifics
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UNFCCC
• Most important aspects– Objective = overall goal for the treaty– Divides parties into different categories– Establishes moderate commitments– Applies to 6 greenhouse gases– Requires parties to meet every year to assess whether
the existing commitments will meet the objective
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Art. 1 - Definitions – Key Terms
• Emissions = release of GHGs and/or precursors into atmosphere over specified area/time
• GHGs – not just carbon dioxide• Reservoir = component of climate system where
GHGs are stored• Sink = process, activity, or mechanism which
removes GHGs from atmosphere• Source = any process or activity which releases
GHGs into atmosphere
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Art. 2 - Objectives
• Stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.
• within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner
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Art. 4 - Commitments
• All Parties, Annex I Parties, Annex II Parties– All = developed, developing, economies in
transition– Annex I = developed + economies in transition– Annex II = developed
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Art. 4 - Commitments
• Developed– Europe, United States, Japan, Australia, New
Zealand, Canada– And former Soviet countries (EITs)
• Russia, Ukraine, Lithuania, etc.
• Developing– Any other party – e.g., China, India, all countries in
South America, Africa, most of Asia, Middle East
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All Parties = Developed + Developing
Annex I = Developed
Annex II = Developed/
Not EITs
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Art. 4.1 – All parties
• 1. All Parties, taking into account their common but differentiated responsibilities, shall:
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Art. 4.1 – All parties• (a) develop national inventories of anthropogenic
emissions by sources and removals by sinks of GHGs
• (b) Develop programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change
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Art. 4.1 – All Parties
• (c) promote and participate in technology transfer
• (d) promote sustainable management of sinks and reservoirs
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Art. 4.1 – All Parties
• (j) communicate results to the Conference of the Parties
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Art. 4.2 – Annex I parties
• (a) Developed country parties shall– adopt national policies and take corresponding
measures on the mitigation of climate change, by limiting its anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting and enhancing its greenhouse gas sinks and reservoirs.
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Art. 4.2 – Annex I parties• (a) These policies and measures will
demonstrate that developed countries are taking the lead
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Article 4.2 – Annex I parties• (b) Parties shall communicate to the Secretariat
about their efforts
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Article 4.2 – Annex I parties• (d) The Conference of the Parties will meet
to determine if the efforts are working to meet the objective of the UNFCCC
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Art. 4.3 – Annex II Parties• Annex II Parties
– Developed countries, except for “economies in transition”
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Art. 4.3 – Annex II Parties
• Annex II parties must– Provide funding to non-Annex I parties for
emissions inventories– Help transfer technology– Help fund adaptation
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Importance of UNFCCC?
• Structure– Negotiating framework– GHGs/basket of gases– Definitions
• The overall objective• Different commitments based on the parties• Funding mechanisms• Information dissemination
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UNFCCC
• Structural importance– Developed countries must take the lead to reduce
emissions– Developing countries do not have obligations to
reduce emissions – but should inventory and report
– Parties will meet to determine if they need to do more