Mitigation at the Sector Level

Emissions by End UseEnd Use % End Use %

Road (cars, Trucks) 9.9 Cement 3.8

Air 1.6 Other Industry 5.0

Rail, Ship, Transport 2.3 Transmission and Distribution Losses

1.9

Residential Buildings 9.9 Coal Mining 1.4

Commercial Buildings 5.4 Oil & Gas Extraction, Refining, Etc 6.3

Unallocated Fuel Combustion 3.5 Forestation 18.2

Iron and Steel 3.2 Agricultural Energy Use 1.4

Aluminum/Non-Ferrous Metals 1.4 Agricultural Soils 6.0

Machinery 1.0 Livestock & Manure 5.1

Pulp, Paper, Printing 1.0 Rice Cultivation 1.5

Food, Tobacco 1.0 Other Agriculture 0.9

Chemicals 4.8 Landfills 2.0

Wastewater, Other Waste 1.6

How would you mitigate emissions from the following sectors?

• Electricity?• Transportation?• Industrial manufacturing?• Land Use?

How would you mitigate emissions from the following sectors?

Electricity?Transportation?Industrial manufacturing?

EfficiencyFuel switchingReduce consumption

Land UseEfficiencyProduct switchingReduce consumption

Should we be focusing on global mitigation or take a sector-by-sector

approach?• We’ll come back to this after we cover the

Kyoto Protocol

Wedges Concept

What is a “Wedge”?A “wedge” is a strategy to reduce carbon emissions that grows in 50 years from zero to 1.0 GtC/yr. The strategy has already been commercialized at scale somewhere.

1 GtC/yr

50 years

Total = 25 Gigatons carbon

Cumulatively, a wedge redirects the flow of 25 GtC in its first 50 years. This is 2.5 trillion dollars at $100/tC.

A “solution” to the CO2 problem should provide at least one wedge.

Energy Efficiency & Conservation (4)

CO2 Capture & Storage (3)

Stabilization Triangle

Renewable Fuels& Electricity (4)

Forest and Soil Storage (2)

Fuel Switching(1)

15 Wedge Strategies in 4 Categories

Nuclear Fission (1)

2007 20578 GtC/y

16 GtC/y

TriangleStabilization

A few caveats

• Some of the proposals have moderate to significant environmental or political downsides– E.g., nuclear waste storage not yet resolved

• Actual emissions reductions subject to dispute– E.g., some studies suggest that life cycle emissions

of natural gas production from shale are greater than coal over 20-year period; biofuels another area of controversy

Double the fuel efficiency of the world’s cars or halve miles traveled

Produce today’s electric capacity with double today’s efficiency

Use best efficiency practices in all residential and commercial buildings

Replacing all the world’s incandescent bulbs with CFL’s would provide 1/4 of one wedge

Efficiency

There are about 600 million cars today, with 2 billion projected for 2055

Average coal plant efficiency is 32% today

E, T, H / $

Photos courtesy of Ford Motor Co., DOE, EPA

Sector s affected:

E = Electricity, T =Transport, H = Heat

Cost based on scale of $ to $$$

Substitute 1400 natural gas electric plants for an equal number of coal-fired facilities

A wedge requires an amount of natural gas equal to that used for all purposes today

Fuel Switching

Photo by J.C. Willett (U.S. Geological Survey).

E, H / $

Implement CCS at

• 800 GW coal electric plants or• 1600 GW natural gas electric

plants or• 180 coal synfuels plants or• 10 times today’s capacity of

hydrogen plants

Graphic courtesy of Alberta Geological Survey

Carbon Capture & Storage

There are currently three storage projects that each inject 1 million tons of CO2 per year – by 2055 need 3500.

E, T, H / $$

Triple the world’s nuclear electricity capacity by 2055

Nuclear Electricity

Graphic courtesy of NRC

The rate of installation required for a wedge from electricity is equal to the global rate of nuclear expansion from 1975-1990.

E/ $$

Wind Electricity

Install 1 million 2 MW windmills to replace coal-based electricity, ORUse 2 million windmills to produce hydrogen fuel

Photo courtesy of DOE

A wedge worth of wind electricity will require increasing current capacity by a factor of 30

E, T, H / $-$$

Solar Electricity

Photos courtesy of DOE Photovoltaics Program

Install 20,000 square kilometers for dedicated use by 2054

A wedge of solar electricity would mean increasing current capacity 700 times

E / $$$

Biofuels

Photo courtesy of NREL

Using current practices, one wedge requires planting an area the size of India with biofuels crops

Scale up current global ethanol production by 30 times

T, H / $$

Natural Sinks

Photos courtesy of NREL, SUNY Stonybrook, United Nations FAO

Eliminate tropical deforestation

OR

Plant new forests over an area the size of the continental U.S.

OR

Use conservation tillage on all cropland (1600 Mha)

B / $

Conservation tillage is currently practiced on less than 10% of global cropland

International Treaties and the Climate Change Negotiations

Most Important Concepts Underlying International Lawmaking??

• State Sovereignty– Each state is a sovereign actor, and states will

protect their sovereignty to the greatest extent when developing treaties

• Consent– Must have evidence of consent to “bind” a state –

whatever “binding” may mean – to an international obligation

The Climate Change Treaty Process and Politics

• 2 Treaties– UNFCCC (1992)– Kyoto Protocol (1997)

• = a protocol to the UNFCCC• UNFCCC provides the framework, Kyoto Protocol helps

to implement it

• Parties meet multiple times/year + have one official meeting each year = Conference of the Parties

The Politics

• Developed v. developing• Divisions within developing countries• EU v. U.S.• Economies in transition

The Politics

• Developed v. developing

The Politics

• Developed v. developing– Historical emissions v. current and future

emissions– Industrial emissions v. land use emissions– Wealth/development v. desire to develop– Cause of the harm v. will suffer much of the harm

The Politics

• Divisions within developing countries– AOSIS (small island nations)– OPEC (oil producing nations)– China– India– Brazil + other heavily forested countries– Africa/ least developed countries

The Politics

• Divisions within developing countries– AOSIS (small island nations)

• Big GHG reductions + $ for adaptation– OPEC (oil producing nations)

• No reductions + $ if lose oil production– China

• Reductions only if does not affect growth – developed countries go first

– India• Same as China

The Politics

• Divisions within developing countries– Brazil + other heavily forested countries

• Reductions from industrial sources, not forests• But if from reduced deforestation, want $

– Africa/ least developed countries• Want $ and development assistance

The Politics

• EU v. U.S.– EU wants emissions reductions, but wants to

achieve those reductions as a region, not on country-by-country basis

– U.S. opposes emissions reductions, especially if developing countries like China do not have obligations

The Politics• Economies in transition (EITs) = countries that

were part of the former Soviet Union– When the Soviet Union collapsed, so did

their economies– They are “industrialized,” but have damaged

economies– The have reduced emissions because of

collapse– They don’t have any money

Economies in Transition – Hot Air

1985 1989 1995 2008-20120%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Column1"Hot air"Russia's emissions

The Climate Change Treaty Process and Politics

• When you consider the politics, it’s amazing the parties reached any agreement at all, but they did– UNFCCC

UNFCCC

UNFCCC

• 1992 treaty• “Framework” treaty – designed to establish the

basic structure and goals of the Parties– Often very vague about specifics

UNFCCC

• Most important aspects– Objective = overall goal for the treaty– Divides parties into different categories– Establishes moderate commitments– Applies to 6 greenhouse gases– Requires parties to meet every year to assess whether

the existing commitments will meet the objective

Art. 1 - Definitions – Key Terms

• Emissions = release of GHGs and/or precursors into atmosphere over specified area/time

• GHGs – not just carbon dioxide• Reservoir = component of climate system where

GHGs are stored• Sink = process, activity, or mechanism which

removes GHGs from atmosphere• Source = any process or activity which releases

GHGs into atmosphere

Art. 2 - Objectives

• Stabilization of GHG concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.

• within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner

Art. 4 - Commitments

• All Parties, Annex I Parties, Annex II Parties– All = developed, developing, economies in

transition– Annex I = developed + economies in transition– Annex II = developed

Art. 4 - Commitments

• Developed– Europe, United States, Japan, Australia, New

Zealand, Canada– And former Soviet countries (EITs)

• Russia, Ukraine, Lithuania, etc.

• Developing– Any other party – e.g., China, India, all countries in

South America, Africa, most of Asia, Middle East

All Parties = Developed + Developing

Annex I = Developed

Annex II = Developed/

Not EITs

Art. 4.1 – All parties

• 1. All Parties, taking into account their common but differentiated responsibilities, shall:

Art. 4.1 – All parties• (a) develop national inventories of anthropogenic

emissions by sources and removals by sinks of GHGs

• (b) Develop programmes containing measures to mitigate climate change

Art. 4.1 – All Parties

• (c) promote and participate in technology transfer

• (d) promote sustainable management of sinks and reservoirs

Art. 4.1 – All Parties

• (j) communicate results to the Conference of the Parties

Art. 4.2 – Annex I parties

• (a) Developed country parties shall– adopt national policies and take corresponding

measures on the mitigation of climate change, by limiting its anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and protecting and enhancing its greenhouse gas sinks and reservoirs.

Art. 4.2 – Annex I parties• (a) These policies and measures will

demonstrate that developed countries are taking the lead

Article 4.2 – Annex I parties• (b) Parties shall communicate to the Secretariat

about their efforts

Article 4.2 – Annex I parties• (d) The Conference of the Parties will meet

to determine if the efforts are working to meet the objective of the UNFCCC

Art. 4.3 – Annex II Parties• Annex II Parties

– Developed countries, except for “economies in transition”

Art. 4.3 – Annex II Parties

• Annex II parties must– Provide funding to non-Annex I parties for

emissions inventories– Help transfer technology– Help fund adaptation

Importance of UNFCCC?

• Structure– Negotiating framework– GHGs/basket of gases– Definitions

• The overall objective• Different commitments based on the parties• Funding mechanisms• Information dissemination

UNFCCC

• Structural importance– Developed countries must take the lead to reduce

emissions– Developing countries do not have obligations to

reduce emissions – but should inventory and report

– Parties will meet to determine if they need to do more