Download - MumbaiRealEstate-19-4-11-PL

8/6/2019 MumbaiRealEstate-19-4-11-PL

1/4

MumbaiRealEstate

Downtrendcontinues,seasonalbounceinMarch

April19,2011

PrabhudasLilladherPvt.Ltd.and/oritsassociates(the'Firm')doesand/orseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresultinvestorsshouldbeawareth

theFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthereport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.

Pleaserefertoimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimersattheendofthereport

KejalMehta

[email protected]

+912266322246

DhrushilJhaveri

[email protected]

+912266322232

BSESensexv/sBSERealEstate

50

150

250

350

Apr

09

Jul09

Oct

09

Jan

10

Apr

10

Jul10

Oct

10

Jan

11

Apr

11

BSERealtySensexMumbaiRealty(ExDB)

Source:Bloomberg,PLResearch

StockPerformance

(%) 1M 6M 12M

Sensex 6.5 (4.7) 9.5

BSERealEstate 12.7 (39.7) (33.1)

AckrutiCity 1.7 (53.8) (57.1)

AjmeraRealty 9.5 (27.5) (3.2)

GodrejProperties 10.8 (3.1) 32.7

HDIL 15.3 (33.7) (37.8)

IbullsRealEstate 33.0 (30.3) (12.8)

OberoiRealty 11.8 (2.4) NA

OrbitCorporation 12.1 (56.9) (66.3)

PeninsulaLand (4.7) (12.9) (21.8)

PhoenixMills 13.1 (18.9) (4.7)

SunteckRealty 12.6 (48.7) (46.8)

Salesvolumesat5852,down30%YoYinMarch,althoughonahigherbase Saleswitnessaseasonalbounceof24%fromJanuarylows Leasevolumesatanewhighrecording9,603forthemonth NopricereductionseenintherecentMaharashtraChamberofHousingIndustry

(MCHI)exhibition,pricesrise510%inprojectsnearingcompletion.

Saleswitnessseasonalbouncefromlows,trendcontinuestobedown

SalesregistrationsforthemonthofMarcharedown30%YoY,althoughonahighe

baseof lastyear.However,numbers forthemonthofMarchare24%higherthan

the lowswitnessed inFebruary2011,and15%higherthanJanuary2011numbers

February2011arenotbestrictlycomparableonaccountoflesserdaysinthemonth

ThespurtinMarchcouldbeonaccountofthepropertyregistrationsbeforetheend

ofthefinancialyearfortaxationpurposes.Earlieryearshavealsowitnessedsimila

increasesinthemonthofMarch.

Thestrongmomentumwehavebeenwitnessinginleasevolumeshascontinuedinto

Marchaswell.Leasevolumesareatanewhigh, recording9,603 thismonth.This

monthsrecordvolumesreiteratethatcontinuedstressonaffordabilityiscausinga

deferralofpurchases.

Also,avisittotherecentMCHIexhibitionpointstowardsasubduedresponsefrom

the customers to the high prices on offer. Contrary to expectations, prices fo

projectsnearingcompletionhaveincreasedby510%sincethelastexhibition(from

October2010).Areductioninpriceshasnotbeenseeneveninprojectsthatare34

yearsawayfromcompletion.

Overall the sales trend, as seen from the 3month moving average sales

registrations,continuestoremaindown.

3monthMovingavg.SalesRegistrationsinMumbai

5,000

7,000

9,000

11,00013,000

15,000

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

Aug

08

Oct08

Dec

08

Feb

09

Apr09

Jun

09

Aug

09

Oct09

Dec

09

Feb

10

Apr10

Jun

10

Aug

10

Oct10

Dec

10

Feb

11

(nos)

Source:DGRMumbai,PLResearch


2/4

March17,2010 2

MumbaiRealEstate

3monthMovingAverageSalesYoY%growth

43% 6

3% 81

%1

00%1

28%

143%

140%

122%

106%

74%

37%

16%

9%

1%

6%

12%

19%

24%

24%

25%

50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Aug

09

Sep

09

Oct09

Nov

09

Dec

09

Jan

10

Feb

10

Mar10

Apr10

May

10

Jun

10

Jul10

Aug

10

Sep

10

Oct10

Nov

10

Dec

10

Jan

11

Feb

11

Mar11


3monthMovingAverageLeasesYoY%growth

1

0%

1

0%

11%

12%

1

0%

12%

13%

15%

18%

17%2

1%

15%

15%

13%

11%

0%

5%6%

19%

20%

25%

15%

5%

5%

15%

25%

35%

Aug

09

Sep

09

Oct09

Nov

09

Dec

09

Jan

10

Feb

10

Mar10

Apr10

May

10

Jun

10

Jul10

Aug

10

Sep

10

Oct10

Nov

10

Dec

10

Jan

11

Feb

11

Mar11

Source:DGRMumbai,PLResearchRegistrationofSaleDeedagreementsinMumbai

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

Jun

09

Jul09

Aug

09

Sep

09

Oct09

Nov

09

Dec

09

Jan

10

Feb

10

Mar10

Apr10

May

10

Jun

10

Jul10

Aug

10

Sep

10

Oct10

Nov

10

Dec

10

Jan

11

Feb

11

Mar11

(nos)


YoY%growthinSaleDeedregistrations

28%

38% 6

5% 9

7%

85%

122%1

78%

123%

113%

128%

79%

22%

19%

9%

1%

13%

3%

20%

29%

21%

22%

30%

50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Jun

09

Jul09

Aug

09

Sep

09

Oct09

Nov

09

Dec

09

Jan

10

Feb

10

Mar10

Apr10

May

10

Jun

10

Jul10

Aug

10

Sep

10

Oct10

Nov

10

Dec

10

Jan

11

Feb

11

Mar11

(YoYgr.)

Source:DGRMumbai,PLResearchRegistrationofLeaseAgreementsinMumbai

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Jun

09

Jul09

Aug

09

Sep

09

Oct09

Nov

09

Dec

09

Jan

10

Feb

10

Mar10

Apr10

May

10

Jun

10

Jul10

Aug

10

Sep

10

Oct10

Nov

10

Dec

10

Jan

11

Feb

11

Mar11

(nos)


YoY%growthinLeaseAgreementregistrations

9%

9% 1

1%

10%

12%

16%

2%

20%

18%

7%

26%

15% 2

1%

10%

12%1

7%

3%

19%

32%

7%

20%

34%

30%

20%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Jun

09

Jul09

Aug

09

Sep

09

Oct09

Nov

09

Dec

09

Jan

10

Feb

10

Mar10

Apr10

May

10

Jun

10

Jul10

Aug

10

Sep

10

Oct10

Nov

10

Dec

10

Jan

11

Feb

11

Mar11

(YoYgr.)



3/4

March17,2010 3

MumbaiRealEstate

Suburb saleshave fallen34%YoY for themonthofMarch, although,onahighe

baseoflastyear.Ontheotherhand,thismonth,Citysaleshavefallen5%YoY.

Overall,bothCityandSuburbsaleswitnessan11%and16%seasonalbouncefrom

their

January

lows.

MumbaiCitySaleDeedRegistrations

11%

0% 1

1%

87%

39%

107% 1

46%

41%

54%7

0%

79%

37% 6

4%

68%

8%

19% 5

%

20%

23%

15%

13%

5%

50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Jun0

9

Jul0

9

Aug0

9

Sep0

9

Oct0

9

Nov0

9

Dec0

9

Jan1

0

Feb

10

Mar10

Apr10

May1

0

Jun1

0

Jul1

0

Aug1

0

Sep1

0

Oct1

0

Nov1

0

Dec1

0

Jan1

1

Feb

11

Mar11

(YoYgr.)


MumbaiCityLeaseAgreementRegistrations

9%

3%

5%

12%

45%

13%

21%

29%

11%1

9%

7% 1

7%

66%

17%

16% 3

0%

18%

11%

12% 1

%1

8%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

Jul

09

Aug

09

Sep

09

Oct

09

Nov

09

Dec

09

Jan

10

Feb

10

Mar

10

Apr

10

May

10

Jun

10

Jul

10

Aug

10

Sep

10

Oct

10

Nov

10

Dec

10

Jan

11

Feb

11

Mar

11

(YoYgr.)

Source:DGRMumbai,PLResearchMumbaiSuburbSaleDeedRegistrations

31%

47% 7

9%9

9%

94% 1

25% 1

85%

144%

125%

141%

79%

20%

12%

0%

3%

1

2%

4%

21%

30

%

26

%

26

%

34%

50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

Jun

09

Jul09

Aug

09

Sep

09

Oct09

Nov

09

Dec

09

Jan

10

Feb

10

Mar10

Apr10

May

10

Jun

10

Jul10

Aug

10

Sep

10

Oct10

Nov

10

Dec

10

Jan

11

Feb

11

Mar11

(YoYgr.)


MumbaiSuburbLeaseAgreementRegistrations

11%

9% 1

3%

12%

12%

12%

0%

19%

16%

7%

28%

17%2

2%

24%

12% 1

7%

1%

20%

36%

10%

23%

36%

30%

20%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

Jun

09

Jul09

Aug

09

Sep

09

Oct09

Nov

09

Dec

09

Jan

10

Feb

10

Mar10

Apr10

May

10

Jun

10

Jul10

Aug

10

Sep

10

Oct10

Nov

10

Dec

10

Jan

11

Feb

11

Mar11

(YoYgr.)



4/4

March17,2010 4

MumbaiRealEstate

PrabhudasLilladherPvt.Ltd.

3rdFloor,SadhanaHouse,570,P.B.Marg,Worli,Mumbai400018,India

Tel:(9122)66322222Fax:(9122)66322209

RatingDistributionofResearchCoverage

29.0%

55.8%

13.0%

2.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Buy Accumulate Reduce Sell

%

ofTotalCoverage

PLsRecommendationNomenclature

BUY : Over15%OutperformancetoSensexover12months Accumulate : OutperformancetoSensexover12months

Reduce : UnderperformancetoSensexover12months Sell : Over15%underperformancetoSensexover12months

TradingBuy : Over10%absoluteupsidein1month TradingSell : Over10%absolutedeclinein1month

NotRated(NR) : Nospecificcallonthestock UnderReview(UR) : Ratinglikelytochangeshortly

Thisdocumenthasbeenpreparedby theResearchDivisionof Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.Mumbai, India (PL)and ismeant foruseby the recipientonlyasinformationandisnotforcirculation. ThisdocumentisnottobereportedorcopiedormadeavailabletootherswithoutpriorpermissionofPL.Itshouldnotbe

consideredortakenasanoffertosellorasolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurity.

Theinformationcontainedinthisreporthasbeenobtainedfromsourcesthatareconsideredtobereliable.However,PLhasnotindependentlyverifiedtheaccuracy

orcompletenessofthesame.NeitherPLnoranyofitsaffiliates,itsdirectorsoritsemployeesacceptanyresponsibilityofwhatsoevernaturefortheinformation,

statementsandopiniongiven,madeavailableorexpressedhereinorforanyomissiontherein.

Recipientsofthisreportshouldbeawarethatpastperformanceisnotnecessarilyaguidetofutureperformanceandvalueofinvestmentscangodownaswell.The

suitabilityorotherwiseof any investmentswilldependupon the recipient'sparticular circumstances and, in caseofdoubt, advice shouldbe sought from an

independentexpert/advisor.

EitherPLoritsaffiliatesoritsdirectorsoritsemployeesoritsrepresentativesoritsclientsortheirrelativesmayhaveposition(s),makemarket,actasprincipalor

engageintransactionsofsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportandtheymayhaveusedtheresearchmaterialpriortopublication.

Wemayfromtimetotimesolicitorperforminvestmentbankingorotherservicesforanycompanymentionedinthisdocument.

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alloftheparties.Additionally,youareprohibitedfromusingtheinformationforanyreasonorpurposeoutsideitsintendeduse.Anyquestionsshouldbedirectedto

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