mumbairealestate-19-4-11-pl
TRANSCRIPT
-
8/6/2019 MumbaiRealEstate-19-4-11-PL
1/4
MumbaiRealEstate
Downtrendcontinues,seasonalbounceinMarch
April19,2011
PrabhudasLilladherPvt.Ltd.and/oritsassociates(the'Firm')doesand/orseekstodobusinesswithcompaniescoveredinitsresearchreports.Asaresultinvestorsshouldbeawareth
theFirmmayhaveaconflictofinterestthatcouldaffecttheobjectivityofthereport.Investorsshouldconsiderthisreportasonlyasinglefactorinmakingtheirinvestmentdecision.
Pleaserefertoimportantdisclosuresanddisclaimersattheendofthereport
KejalMehta
+912266322246
DhrushilJhaveri
+912266322232
BSESensexv/sBSERealEstate
50
150
250
350
Apr
09
Jul09
Oct
09
Jan
10
Apr
10
Jul10
Oct
10
Jan
11
Apr
11
BSERealtySensexMumbaiRealty(ExDB)
Source:Bloomberg,PLResearch
StockPerformance
(%) 1M 6M 12M
Sensex 6.5 (4.7) 9.5
BSERealEstate 12.7 (39.7) (33.1)
AckrutiCity 1.7 (53.8) (57.1)
AjmeraRealty 9.5 (27.5) (3.2)
GodrejProperties 10.8 (3.1) 32.7
HDIL 15.3 (33.7) (37.8)
IbullsRealEstate 33.0 (30.3) (12.8)
OberoiRealty 11.8 (2.4) NA
OrbitCorporation 12.1 (56.9) (66.3)
PeninsulaLand (4.7) (12.9) (21.8)
PhoenixMills 13.1 (18.9) (4.7)
SunteckRealty 12.6 (48.7) (46.8)
Salesvolumesat5852,down30%YoYinMarch,althoughonahigherbase Saleswitnessaseasonalbounceof24%fromJanuarylows Leasevolumesatanewhighrecording9,603forthemonth NopricereductionseenintherecentMaharashtraChamberofHousingIndustry
(MCHI)exhibition,pricesrise510%inprojectsnearingcompletion.
Saleswitnessseasonalbouncefromlows,trendcontinuestobedown
SalesregistrationsforthemonthofMarcharedown30%YoY,althoughonahighe
baseof lastyear.However,numbers forthemonthofMarchare24%higherthan
the lowswitnessed inFebruary2011,and15%higherthanJanuary2011numbers
February2011arenotbestrictlycomparableonaccountoflesserdaysinthemonth
ThespurtinMarchcouldbeonaccountofthepropertyregistrationsbeforetheend
ofthefinancialyearfortaxationpurposes.Earlieryearshavealsowitnessedsimila
increasesinthemonthofMarch.
Thestrongmomentumwehavebeenwitnessinginleasevolumeshascontinuedinto
Marchaswell.Leasevolumesareatanewhigh, recording9,603 thismonth.This
monthsrecordvolumesreiteratethatcontinuedstressonaffordabilityiscausinga
deferralofpurchases.
Also,avisittotherecentMCHIexhibitionpointstowardsasubduedresponsefrom
the customers to the high prices on offer. Contrary to expectations, prices fo
projectsnearingcompletionhaveincreasedby510%sincethelastexhibition(from
October2010).Areductioninpriceshasnotbeenseeneveninprojectsthatare34
yearsawayfromcompletion.
Overall the sales trend, as seen from the 3month moving average sales
registrations,continuestoremaindown.
3monthMovingavg.SalesRegistrationsinMumbai
5,000
7,000
9,000
11,00013,000
15,000
17,000
19,000
21,000
23,000
25,000
Aug
08
Oct08
Dec
08
Feb
09
Apr09
Jun
09
Aug
09
Oct09
Dec
09
Feb
10
Apr10
Jun
10
Aug
10
Oct10
Dec
10
Feb
11
(nos)
Source:DGRMumbai,PLResearch
-
8/6/2019 MumbaiRealEstate-19-4-11-PL
2/4
March17,2010 2
MumbaiRealEstate
3monthMovingAverageSalesYoY%growth
43% 6
3% 81
%1
00%1
28%
143%
140%
122%
106%
74%
37%
16%
9%
1%
6%
12%
19%
24%
24%
25%
50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Aug
09
Sep
09
Oct09
Nov
09
Dec
09
Jan
10
Feb
10
Mar10
Apr10
May
10
Jun
10
Jul10
Aug
10
Sep
10
Oct10
Nov
10
Dec
10
Jan
11
Feb
11
Mar11
Source:DGRMumbai,PLResearch
3monthMovingAverageLeasesYoY%growth
1
0%
1
0%
11%
12%
1
0%
12%
13%
15%
18%
17%2
1%
15%
15%
13%
11%
0%
5%6%
19%
20%
25%
15%
5%
5%
15%
25%
35%
Aug
09
Sep
09
Oct09
Nov
09
Dec
09
Jan
10
Feb
10
Mar10
Apr10
May
10
Jun
10
Jul10
Aug
10
Sep
10
Oct10
Nov
10
Dec
10
Jan
11
Feb
11
Mar11
Source:DGRMumbai,PLResearchRegistrationofSaleDeedagreementsinMumbai
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Jun
09
Jul09
Aug
09
Sep
09
Oct09
Nov
09
Dec
09
Jan
10
Feb
10
Mar10
Apr10
May
10
Jun
10
Jul10
Aug
10
Sep
10
Oct10
Nov
10
Dec
10
Jan
11
Feb
11
Mar11
(nos)
Source:DGRMumbai,PLResearch
YoY%growthinSaleDeedregistrations
28%
38% 6
5% 9
7%
85%
122%1
78%
123%
113%
128%
79%
22%
19%
9%
1%
13%
3%
20%
29%
21%
22%
30%
50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Jun
09
Jul09
Aug
09
Sep
09
Oct09
Nov
09
Dec
09
Jan
10
Feb
10
Mar10
Apr10
May
10
Jun
10
Jul10
Aug
10
Sep
10
Oct10
Nov
10
Dec
10
Jan
11
Feb
11
Mar11
(YoYgr.)
Source:DGRMumbai,PLResearchRegistrationofLeaseAgreementsinMumbai
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
Jun
09
Jul09
Aug
09
Sep
09
Oct09
Nov
09
Dec
09
Jan
10
Feb
10
Mar10
Apr10
May
10
Jun
10
Jul10
Aug
10
Sep
10
Oct10
Nov
10
Dec
10
Jan
11
Feb
11
Mar11
(nos)
Source:DGRMumbai,PLResearch
YoY%growthinLeaseAgreementregistrations
9%
9% 1
1%
10%
12%
16%
2%
20%
18%
7%
26%
15% 2
1%
10%
12%1
7%
3%
19%
32%
7%
20%
34%
30%
20%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jun
09
Jul09
Aug
09
Sep
09
Oct09
Nov
09
Dec
09
Jan
10
Feb
10
Mar10
Apr10
May
10
Jun
10
Jul10
Aug
10
Sep
10
Oct10
Nov
10
Dec
10
Jan
11
Feb
11
Mar11
(YoYgr.)
Source:DGRMumbai,PLResearch
-
8/6/2019 MumbaiRealEstate-19-4-11-PL
3/4
March17,2010 3
MumbaiRealEstate
Suburb saleshave fallen34%YoY for themonthofMarch, although,onahighe
baseoflastyear.Ontheotherhand,thismonth,Citysaleshavefallen5%YoY.
Overall,bothCityandSuburbsaleswitnessan11%and16%seasonalbouncefrom
their
January
lows.
MumbaiCitySaleDeedRegistrations
11%
0% 1
1%
87%
39%
107% 1
46%
41%
54%7
0%
79%
37% 6
4%
68%
8%
19% 5
%
20%
23%
15%
13%
5%
50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Jun0
9
Jul0
9
Aug0
9
Sep0
9
Oct0
9
Nov0
9
Dec0
9
Jan1
0
Feb
10
Mar10
Apr10
May1
0
Jun1
0
Jul1
0
Aug1
0
Sep1
0
Oct1
0
Nov1
0
Dec1
0
Jan1
1
Feb
11
Mar11
(YoYgr.)
Source:DGRMumbai,PLResearch
MumbaiCityLeaseAgreementRegistrations
9%
3%
5%
12%
45%
13%
21%
29%
11%1
9%
7% 1
7%
66%
17%
16% 3
0%
18%
11%
12% 1
%1
8%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Jul
09
Aug
09
Sep
09
Oct
09
Nov
09
Dec
09
Jan
10
Feb
10
Mar
10
Apr
10
May
10
Jun
10
Jul
10
Aug
10
Sep
10
Oct
10
Nov
10
Dec
10
Jan
11
Feb
11
Mar
11
(YoYgr.)
Source:DGRMumbai,PLResearchMumbaiSuburbSaleDeedRegistrations
31%
47% 7
9%9
9%
94% 1
25% 1
85%
144%
125%
141%
79%
20%
12%
0%
3%
1
2%
4%
21%
30
%
26
%
26
%
34%
50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Jun
09
Jul09
Aug
09
Sep
09
Oct09
Nov
09
Dec
09
Jan
10
Feb
10
Mar10
Apr10
May
10
Jun
10
Jul10
Aug
10
Sep
10
Oct10
Nov
10
Dec
10
Jan
11
Feb
11
Mar11
(YoYgr.)
Source:DGRMumbai,PLResearch
MumbaiSuburbLeaseAgreementRegistrations
11%
9% 1
3%
12%
12%
12%
0%
19%
16%
7%
28%
17%2
2%
24%
12% 1
7%
1%
20%
36%
10%
23%
36%
30%
20%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Jun
09
Jul09
Aug
09
Sep
09
Oct09
Nov
09
Dec
09
Jan
10
Feb
10
Mar10
Apr10
May
10
Jun
10
Jul10
Aug
10
Sep
10
Oct10
Nov
10
Dec
10
Jan
11
Feb
11
Mar11
(YoYgr.)
Source:DGRMumbai,PLResearch
-
8/6/2019 MumbaiRealEstate-19-4-11-PL
4/4
March17,2010 4
MumbaiRealEstate
PrabhudasLilladherPvt.Ltd.
3rdFloor,SadhanaHouse,570,P.B.Marg,Worli,Mumbai400018,India
Tel:(9122)66322222Fax:(9122)66322209
RatingDistributionofResearchCoverage
29.0%
55.8%
13.0%
2.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Buy Accumulate Reduce Sell
%
ofTotalCoverage
PLsRecommendationNomenclature
BUY : Over15%OutperformancetoSensexover12months Accumulate : OutperformancetoSensexover12months
Reduce : UnderperformancetoSensexover12months Sell : Over15%underperformancetoSensexover12months
TradingBuy : Over10%absoluteupsidein1month TradingSell : Over10%absolutedeclinein1month
NotRated(NR) : Nospecificcallonthestock UnderReview(UR) : Ratinglikelytochangeshortly
Thisdocumenthasbeenpreparedby theResearchDivisionof Prabhudas Lilladher Pvt. Ltd.Mumbai, India (PL)and ismeant foruseby the recipientonlyasinformationandisnotforcirculation. ThisdocumentisnottobereportedorcopiedormadeavailabletootherswithoutpriorpermissionofPL.Itshouldnotbe
consideredortakenasanoffertosellorasolicitationtobuyorsellanysecurity.
Theinformationcontainedinthisreporthasbeenobtainedfromsourcesthatareconsideredtobereliable.However,PLhasnotindependentlyverifiedtheaccuracy
orcompletenessofthesame.NeitherPLnoranyofitsaffiliates,itsdirectorsoritsemployeesacceptanyresponsibilityofwhatsoevernaturefortheinformation,
statementsandopiniongiven,madeavailableorexpressedhereinorforanyomissiontherein.
Recipientsofthisreportshouldbeawarethatpastperformanceisnotnecessarilyaguidetofutureperformanceandvalueofinvestmentscangodownaswell.The
suitabilityorotherwiseof any investmentswilldependupon the recipient'sparticular circumstances and, in caseofdoubt, advice shouldbe sought from an
independentexpert/advisor.
EitherPLoritsaffiliatesoritsdirectorsoritsemployeesoritsrepresentativesoritsclientsortheirrelativesmayhaveposition(s),makemarket,actasprincipalor
engageintransactionsofsecuritiesofcompaniesreferredtointhisreportandtheymayhaveusedtheresearchmaterialpriortopublication.
Wemayfromtimetotimesolicitorperforminvestmentbankingorotherservicesforanycompanymentionedinthisdocument.
ForClients/RecipientsinUnitedStatesofAmerica:
AllmaterialsarefurnishedcourtesyofDirectAccessPartnersLLC("DAP")andproducedbyPrabhudasLilladherPvt.Ltd.("PLI").Thismaterial isfor informational
purposesonlyandprovidedtoQualifiedandAccreditedInvestors.YouareundernoobligationtoDAPorPLIfortheinformationprovidedhereinunlessagreedtoby
alloftheparties.Additionally,youareprohibitedfromusingtheinformationforanyreasonorpurposeoutsideitsintendeduse.Anyquestionsshouldbedirectedto
GerardVisciatDAPat212.850.8888.