Download - MWM Investment Process
The Humphrey Group
April 2011
Mooring Wealth Management
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Mooring Wealth Management (MWM) – Who we are
Header MaturityExperienceMWM
Mooring Wealth Management
Focus
"Our goal is to be the primary source of wealth management advice for every relationship we undertake by providing unparalleled support and service." -Harrison "Cal" Buxton
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Mooring Wealth Management (MWM) – Who we are
CLIENT OBJECTIVES:
Header MaturityExperienceMWM
Mooring Wealth Management
Focus
"Our goal is to be the primary source of wealth management advice for every relationship we undertake by providing unparalleled support and service." -Harrison "Cal" Buxton
OUR PROCESS:
Liquidity and adaptability
Risk awareness
Preservation of capital (protecting the nest egg)
Current need for income and/or flexibility to access cash flow
Growth of assets
Custom-tailored planning (FGA)
Focus on risk-reduction
Active and prominent consideration of cash as a risk-adverse alternative
We offer different disciplines that address our client's needs for growth, income or a combination of both
C:\Program Files\UBS\Pres\Templates\PresPrintOnScreen.potSupply and Demand: The Foundation of our Investment Process
The basics of supply and demand still hold true:
When Buyers exceed Sellers:
Opportunity Risk
When Sellers exceed Buyers:
Our industry forgot this!
C:\Program Files\UBS\Pres\Templates\PresPrintOnScreen.potSupply & Demand: Using Technology to our Advantage
-Institutions are aware of and act on supply and demand trends
-Investors act in concert, often for extended periods (behavioral finance)• Herd mentality• Technology magnifies reactions
and speed
• MWM utilizes tools that measures Supply & Demand of every investment that trades throughout the globe in REAL TIME
• Remember:• SUPPLY = RISK• DEMAND = OPPORTUNITY
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Supply & Demand: Integration
Fundamentals – determine "quality", i.e. WHAT we buy
Technicals – determine WHEN we buy (and sell)
"If there is an excess of supply, we will not buy." –Jeanne Roccon-Rohm
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The Lost Decade +
BUY AND HOLD?
12/31/1999 to
4/1/2011
Current Value $ Change % Change
SPX - S & P 500 Index 1325.83 -143.43 -9.76%
-Contrary to the daily needs of individuals-Real need for current cash flow-Emotional need for stability or incremental growth of capital
The information set forth was obtained from sources which we believe reliable. But we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.
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Supply & Demand: The Foundation of our Investment ProcessQuantifiable and actionable:
• Process called Point and Figure Analysis
• Created by Charles Dow in the 1880s
• Allows us to evaluate significant changes in supply and demand and act accordingly
$42
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XCollective Memory!
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The information set forth was obtained from sources which we believe reliable. But we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.
Supply & Demand: Using Technology to our Advantage
March 2007
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The information set forth was obtained from sources which we believe reliable. But we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.
Supply & Demand: Using Technology to our Advantage
June 2007
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The information set forth was obtained from sources which we believe reliable. But we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.
Supply & Demand: Using Technology to our Advantage
December 2008
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4/3/2009
Supply & Demand: Using Relative Strength
The information set forth was obtained from sources which we believe reliable. But we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.
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Impact:
04/03/2009 to
4/1/2011
Current Value $ Change % Change
RSP- Rydex S&P 500 Equal Weight Index 50.46 +23.54 +87.44%
SPX - S & P 500 Index 1325.83 +483.33 +57.37%
Supply & Demand: Using Relative Strength
The information set forth was obtained from sources which we believe reliable. But we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.
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BUY AND HOLD Performance from 4/ 30/ 2003 to present:4/30/2003 LAST
SPY 91.91$ 131.45$ 43.02% VS.
Supply & Demand: Using Relative Strength
The information set forth was obtained from sources which we believe reliable. But we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.
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BUY AND HOLD Performance from 4/ 30/ 2003 to present:4/30/2003 LAST
SPY 91.91$ 131.45$ 43.02% VS.
RELATIVE STRENGTH positioning: SPY and RSPDate Date Shares Amt. Invested:
Position Purchased Price Sold Value # of Days: Purchased 100,000$
SPY 4/30/2003 91.91$ → 5/12/2003 94.88$ 12 1,088.02 103,231$ 3.2%
RSP 5/12/2003 26.70$ → 1/8/2008 43.90$ 1702 3,866.35 169,733$ 64.4%
SPY 1/8/2008 138.91$ → 4/3/2009 84.26$ 451 1,221.89 102,956$ -39.3%RSP 4/3/2009 26.92$ → 3/25/2011 49.95$ 721 3,824.53 191,035$ 85.5%
Total : 2886 91%
Supply & Demand: Using Relative Strength
The information set forth was obtained from sources which we believe reliable. But we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.
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BUY AND HOLD Performance from 4/ 30/ 2003 to present:4/30/2003 LAST
SPY 91.91$ 131.45$ 43.02% VS.
RELATIVE STRENGTH positioning: SPY and RSPDate Date Shares Amt. Invested:
Position Purchased Price Sold Value # of Days: Purchased 100,000$
SPY 4/30/2003 91.91$ → 5/12/2003 94.88$ 12 1,088.02 103,231$ 3.2%
RSP 5/12/2003 26.70$ → 1/8/2008 43.90$ 1702 3,866.35 169,733$ 64.4%
SPY 1/8/2008 138.91$ → 4/3/2009 84.26$ 451 1,221.89 102,956$ -39.3%RSP 4/3/2009 26.92$ → 3/25/2011 49.95$ 721 3,824.53 191,035$ 85.5%
Total : 2886 91%
VS.RELATIVE STRENGTH positioning: SPY, RSP & MNYMKT
Date Date Shares Amt. Invested:Position Purchased Price Sold Value # of Days: Purchased 100,000$
MNYMKT 4/30/2003 → 5/12/2003 12
RSP 5/12/2003 26.70$ → 11/21/2007 46.01$ 1654 3,745.32 172,322$ 72.3%MNYMKT 11/21/2007 → 12/16/2008 391 SPY 12/16/2008 91.88$ → 1/20/2009 80.57$ 35 1,875.51 151,110$ -12.3%MNYMKT 1/20/2009 → 4/16/2009 86RSP 4/16/2009 28.35$ → 3/25/2011 49.95$ 708 5,330.16 266,242$ 76.2%
Total : 2886 166.2%
Supply & Demand: Using Relative Strength
The information set forth was obtained from sources which we believe reliable. But we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.
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MWM: Our Investment Process
The information set forth was obtained from sources which we believe reliable. But we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.
RELATIVE STRENGTH:
PRIMARY MARKET: RSP
LIVE
38.09 RSP VS SPY → RSP -8.1% 38.06 REV 35.01 -8.0%
82.03 VWO VS EFA → VWO -8.2% 81.47 REV 75.2795 -7.6%
101.95 RSP VS VWO → RSP -0.7% 103.08 REV 101.2425 -1.8%
200.24 RSP VS QQEW → QQEW 6.1% 200.08 REV 212.363 6.1%
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MWM: Our Investment ProcessWEIGHT OF THE EVIDENCE
LDI @ 2.5: RSP 50.72$ TA 5.67; Neg 4 wks, + Trend in XsThompson Direction since last meeting:
50 MA Simple 49.44$ 2.52% up50 MA Exp* 49.11$ 3.17% up200 MA Simple 44.54$ 12.18% up200 MA Exp* 45.64$ 10.02% upChart.50 chart BUY Signal multiple? YESColumn X'sRelative StrengthRSP vs. MNYMKT X's @ 2.5
BUY Signal -26.81% @ 2.5 -% to Signal Change -100% to MNYMKT-6.3% Reverses to O's @ 2.5 -Warning (incremental Cash)-9.8% Reverses to O's @ 3.25 -50% to MNYMKT
Market Breadth BPNYSE* O's 71.538 up reverses: 74 -3.44%BPMBNYSE* O's 40.585 up reverses: 46 -13.34%PTNYSE* X's 80.678 up reverses: 76 5.80%Sector + Trend DALI: Mat'ls, Cons Cyc, Energy, Technology
MWM results: 16.3% Tech & Cons Cyc,14.4% Fin'l & Healthcare, 11.8% Industrials
153 9% Energy, 6.5% Utilities, 3.9% Mat'ls, 2% Telecom
Volatility
VIX 17.47 downGeo-political discomfort improving
The information set forth was obtained from sources which we believe reliable. But we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.
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MWM: Our Investment Process
The information set forth was obtained from sources which we believe reliable. But we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.
CASH DECISION:
If on SELL SIGNAL to MNYMKT, entire position moves to CASH@ 2.5 to O's
or X's@ 3.25 to
O's
RSP vs. MNYMKT X's 362.34BUY
Signal 339.4941 326.66
%age to Signal Change -26.8% 265.21 -6.3% -9.8%
VWO vs. MNYMKT X's 351.49BUY
Signal 323.1354 316.3813
%age to Signal Change -10.3% 315.254 -8.1% -10.0%
QQEW vs. MNYMKT O's 181.1BUY
Signal 183.1199 166.8821
%age to Signal/O's Change -28.4%129.598
9 1.1% -7.9%
Fixed Income Position for Broad YIELD call and MOD portfolio:
STIAX vs. AGG X's 8.71
%age to O's Change -8.6% 7.96
Global Asset Allocation Positions for MOD portfolio:
LGMAX vs. ACWI X's 33.58
%age to O's Change -5.5% 31.72
DWTFX vs. ACWI X's 19.89
%age to O's Change -7.3% 18.43
Primary Market call fund position for Mod portfolio:
CAMSX vs. RSP X's 38.35
%age to O's Change -8.7% 35.0136
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MWM: Our Investment Process
The information set forth was obtained from sources which we believe reliable. But we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.
Treasury Rates change
TYX $
44.890 -0.22% LAST MTG:
$ 44.990 30 YR
USTBD $ 4.510 -0.22% LAST MTG:
$ 4.520 30 YR
TBF $
44.130 -0.23% LAST MTG:
$ 44.230 20 YR
TNX $
34.510 0.47% LAST MTG:
$ 34.350 10 YR
USTBE $ 3.470 0.00% LAST MTG:
$ 3.470 10 YR
FVX $
22.480 2.09% LAST MTG:
$ 22.020 5 YR
USTBI $ 2.240 1.36% LAST MTG:
$ 2.210 5 YR
TIP $
108.860 -0.38% LAST MTG:
$ 109.280 8.5 YR
STIP $
102.070 -0.30% LAST MTG:
$ 102.380 5 YR
U.S. Dollar* change*on .25 chart, 81.50 is pivotal
DX/Y
$ 75.865 -0.05% LAST MTG:
$ 75.900
Non-US Equities, Commodities, Gold, Int'l FI, VAL-Energy, Basic Mat'ls Util, Non-Cyclicals
GOLD change
GLD
$ 139.200 -0.76% LAST MTG:
$ 140.260
TRANSPORTS
IYT
$ 97.170 1.44% LAST MTG:
$ 95.790
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MWM: Our Investment Process
The information set forth was obtained from sources which we believe reliable. But we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.
Domestic Style 4/1/2011sorted by holding your shift key and clicking on the column header.
Tech P M S S E R QAttrib/ S N P P F S QScore S Y X Y A P Q
A MX K
T1 IJH iShares S&P MidCap 400 Index Fund 29 I JH B X B X B X B X B X B O S X2 IWO iShares Russell 2000 Growth Index Fund 28 IWO B X B X B X B X B X S X B X3 IWP iShares Russell Midcap Growth Index 28 IWP B X B X B X B X B X B O S X4 MDY SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF Trust 28 MDY B X B X B X B X B X B O S X5 IJR iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Index Fund 27 I JR B X B X B X B X B X B X S X6 RSP Rydex S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF 27 RSP B X B X B X B X B X S O7 IWR iShares Russell Midcap Index Fund 26 IWR B X B X B X B X B X B O S X8 IWM iShares Russell 2000 Index Fund 24 IWM B X B X B X B X B X S X S O9 IWS iShares Russell Midcap Value Fund 24 IWS B X B X B X B X B X S O S X10 QQQ PowerShares QQQ Trust 22 QQQ B X B X B X B X B X B X11 IWF iShares Russell 1000 Growth Index Fund 20 IWF B X B X B X B X B X S O S O12 VTI Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF 18 VTI B X B X B X O B X S O S O13 IVW iShares S&P 500 Growth Index Fund 17 IVW B X B X B X B X B X B O S O14 SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 17 SPY B X B X X B X S O S O15 IWB iShares Russell 1000 Index 16 IWB B X B X X O B X S O S O16 IYY iShares Dow Jones U.S. Total Market Idx 15 IYY B X B X O O B X S O S O17 SPX S & P 500 Index 15 N/A B X B X O B X S O S O18 IYT iShares Dow Jones U.S. Transportation 14 IYT B X B X B X B X B X B O B O19 IWN iShares Russell 2000 Value Index Fund 14 IWN B X B X B O B O B X S O S O20 IVE iShares S&P 500 Value Index Fund 14 IVE B X B X S O S O S X S O S O21 IWD iShares Russell 1000 Value Index Fund 12 IWD B X B X S O S O B X S O S O22 DIA SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust 9 DIA B X B X B O B O B X S O S O23 DVY iShares Dow Jones Select Dividend Index 9 DVY B X B X S O B O S X S O S O24 OEF iShares S&P 100 Index 9 OEF B X B X B O S O S X S O S O25 VWO Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF 8 VWO B X B X B O B O B X S O S X26 AGG iShares Barclays Aggregate Bond Fund 6 AGG B X S X S O S O S X S O S X27 EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index 5 EEM B X B X B O B O B O S O S O28 EFA iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund 4 EFA B X B O S O S O S O S O29 MNYMKT DWA Money Market Proxy - 13 Week T-Bill 4 N/A B X S O S O S X S O S O30 BEARX Federated Prudent Bear A 3 BEARX S O S O S O S O S O S O S O31 PSSAX PIMCO StocksPLUS TR Short Strat A 2 PSSAX S O S O S O S O S O S O32 SH Short S&P500 ProShares 0 SH S O S O S O S O S O S O S O
XsRank Ticker Name
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MWM: Our Investment Process
The information set forth was obtained from sources which we believe reliable. But we cannot guarantee its accuracy. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by us of the purchase or sale of any securities or commodities.
Expanded Sector 4/1/2011sorted by holding your shift key and clicking on the column header.
Tech M I E G S S Q RAttrib/ N N F L P P Q SScore Y I A D X Y Q P
M VK XT
1 XOP SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF 35 XOP B X B X B X B X B X B X B X B X2 XLE Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund 34 XLE B X B X B X B X B X B X B X S X3 GHAAX Van Eck Global Hard Assets A 31 GHAAX B X B X B X B X B X B X B X S X4 DBC PowerShares DB Commodity Index Tracking 31 DBC B X B X B X B X S X S X B X S X5 GCC GreenHaven Continuous Commodity Index 29 GCC B X B O B X B X B X B X B X B X6 XME SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF 28 XME B X B O B X B X B X B X B X B X7 IYM iShares Dow J ones U.S. Basic Materials 27 IYM B X B O B X B O B X B X B X B X8 GLD SPDR Gold Trust 27 GLD B X B X S X S X S X S X S O9 INIVX Van Eck Intl Investors Gold A 26 INIVX B X S X S O S X S X S X S X10 RSP Rydex S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF 23 RSP B X B O B X B X B X B X S O11 XLI Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund 21 XLI B X B O B X B O S X S X S O S O12 XLY Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund 20 XLY B X B O B X B O B X B X B O B X13 IYT iShares Dow J ones U.S. Transportation 20 IYT B X B X B X B O B X B X B O B O14 QQQ PowerShares QQQ Trust 20 QQQ B X B O B X B O B X B X B X15 XLB Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund 19 XLB B X B O B X B O B X B X S X S X16 IYR iShares Dow J ones U.S. Real Estate Index 18 IYR B X B O B X B O B O B O B X B O17 SPY SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust 18 SPY B X B O B X B O X S O S O18 SPX S & P 500 Index 17 N/A B X B O B X B O O S O S O19 IBB iShares NASDAQ Biotech Index Fund 17 IBB B X B X B X B O S O S O S X S O20 GREAX Goldman Sachs Real Estate A 16 GREAX B X B O B X B O B O B O B O B O21 QTEC First Trust NASDAQ-100-Technology Sector IndexSMFund 16 QTEC B O B O B X B O B X B X B X B X22 VWO Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF 15 VWO B X S X B X S O B O B O S X S O23 XLF Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund 14 XLF B O B O B X B O S O S O S X S O24 IYF iShares Dow J ones U.S. Financial Sector 14 IYF B X B O B X B O S O S O S O S O25 XLK Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund 13 XLK B O B O B X B O B X B X S O S O26 MMUFX MFS Utilities A 12 MMUFX B X B O B X B O B O B O S O S O27 IYZ iShares Dow J ones U.S. Telecom Sector 11 IYZ B X B O B O B O B O B O S O S O28 XLP Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund 11 XLP B X B O B X S X S O S O S O S O29 EEM iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index 10 EEM B X B X B O S O B O B O S O S O30 XLV Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund 7 XLV B X B O S O S O S O S O S O S O31 MNYMKT DWA Money Market Proxy - 13 Week T-Bill 7 N/A S O S X S O S O S O S O S O32 BEARX Federated Prudent Bear A 7 BEARX S O B O S O S O S O S O S O S O33 EFA iShares MSCI EAFE Index Fund 6 EFA B O B O B O S O S O S O S O34 XLU Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund 6 XLU B X S O S X S O S O S O S O S O35 PSSAX PIMCO StocksPLUS TR Short Strat A 4 PSSAX S O B O S O S O S O S O S O S O36 SH Short S&P500 ProShares 0 SH S O B O S O S O S O S O S O S O
XsRank Ticker Name
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MWM unique solutions
Approaches with specific objectives
Client Needs
Growth Growth Growth & Income
Income
Equity Sector Moderate/Balanced
Yield
C:\Program Files\UBS\Pres\Templates\PresPrintOnScreen.potSpecifically built to address our clients' needs and goals
Continuous monitoring and risk management
Cash as an active consideration
Integration of fundamental and technical research
The Humphrey Group-
Mooring Wealth Management
"Building relationships last a lifetime." – Peter S. Humphrey
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Mooring Wealth Management: Comfort
Customization
Observation
Market Awareness
Financial Expertise
Opportunity
Respect
Teamwork