1.
National Opinion Poll: January/February 2016 - for Publication on 7th February 2016
2.
Introduction
A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday
Independent to be published on Sunday 7th February 2016.
The topics covered included party political support, satisfaction with
Government and party leaders, issues of importance in the upcoming
election and consumer financial sentiment.
Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+.
Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror
the 18+ population profile.
984 interviews were conducted at 64 sampling points nationwide.
Interviews were carried out between 25th January – 4th February 2016.
Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+.
The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.1%
3.
The survey results presented here are derived from
The Independent Newspaper Group/Millward Brown
Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of 984
adults representative of the approximate 3.43 million
adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a face-to-
face basis in the home at 64 sampling points
throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of
error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.1%
The 984 interviews on the poll were carried out
between 25th January – 4th February 2016.
The poll was conducted in accordance with the
guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and
Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies).
Extracts from the report may be quoted or published
on condition that due acknowledgement is given to
Millward Brown and The Sunday Independent.
© Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent 2016.
Introduction
POLL
4.
The Results
5.
Pre-election Poll shows nuanced opinions
This latest Millward Brown Poll, conducted over ten days up until last Thursday captured opinion during the long
goodbye to the 31st Dail, but also covered the first two days of the campaign.
It provides for interesting reading. Taking a step back, this election is still Fine Gael’s to lose, but the public is more
nuanced in their opinions than some may have anticipated.
First off, the headline figures. Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have slipped back marginally, whilst Labour remain in the
doldrums, and it’s as you were for Sinn Fein. Independents and other parties have shifted up somewhat, reflecting
potentially the most fractious election in recent generations.
Both Government parties will be somewhat deflated, if not downright disappointed by these latest results. Fine
Gael, at 27pc, will be concerned that the momentum that was apparent for the party in the autumn has dissipated.
For Labour, at 6pc the situation is far more critical. They have less than three weeks to kick start their recovery.
Given that they have remained in the doldrums for the past two years, unable to reach the psychological barrier of
10 percent in our tracking polls, it may well be that the tide has already gone too far out for them to muster any
respectable recovery. Damage limitation may be key, with the party having to focus only on those seats it has a
reasonable chance of actually winning.
For Fine Gael, the past couple of weeks have been less than stellar. Despite having the advantage of knowing when
the starter’s gun would be fired, they have still stumbled out of the blocks.
The opening days of their campaign have, at best, been lacklustre. Between the debate over the size of the already
much maligned catch phrase known as the Fiscal Space, and Enda Kenny’s less than sure-footed explanation to it ,
the omens are not good.
When the central platform of your manifesto message is financial prudence, it is worrying to be caught with a
sucker punch so quickly. When you are having to explain, you are losing. In addition, it will stick in both FG’s and
Labours throats that it was Sinn Fein who were seen to display the most fiscal rectitude on this issue. Strategists will
be seeking to move the debate on to other issues as swiftly as possible.
6.
Pre-election Poll shows nuanced opinions (Cont’d)
Vacillations over whether Fine Gael would seek the support of Michael Lowry or not have also done the party no
favours.
Both Fianna Fail (22pc) and Sinn Fein (21pc) will be happy with these results. They both have built a platform on
which to build.
The main movers have been Independents/other parties. Looking at the “smaller” parties, one suspects that their
branding is quite confusing – people are more likely to nominate individual (high profile) candidates by name rather
than the party they are associated with.
Taking a step back, the broader narrative of these results is that focusing too much on the economy is potentially a
risky strategy - the public don’t necessarily buy in to the Government argument of Stability vs Chaos- just one in
three agree with the doomsday scenario put forward by FG/Labour that a change in Government will put Ireland’s
economic stability at risk.
This approach may need to be re-visited, especially if it does not traction with the electorate soon. The alternative
is that the public will become irritated very quickly if the Government parties don’t adopt more agile strategies and
communications over the next couple of weeks.
One landmark result from this poll is that for the first time since the crash, financial sentiment has crept into
positive territory – that is, for the first time since 2008, more of us are upbeat about our financial situation over the
next twelve months than downbeat. Whilst the Government parties would like to take credit for this, external
factors also play a large part – something that opposition parties will be eager to articulate.
As it is, just over one in four (27pc) believe that either Fine Gael or Labour can most trusted to manage the
economy. Fianna Fail gets the nod from 17pc, whilst 13pc believe that Sinn Fein can be most trusted.
7.
Pre-election Poll shows nuanced opinions (Cont’d)
In addition, the preferred focus among the public for the next Government (whoever it may be) is that Public
Services should be improved (39pc) versus one in four nominating tax cuts, suggesting that hard-nosed economic
policy communications may not be the best advised route – Society and Social issues may take centre stage after
several years of savage cuts.
These are however, early days. Among decided voters, we asked how certain they were in their nomination. Nearly
one in five (19pc) either have some reservations or are not at all certain at this juncture. There are plenty of
potential switchers out there (unfortunately for Labour, 39% of their current supporters, albeit off a small base, are
potential waverers).
The ambition for all our political parties for the next two and a half weeks will be to actually understand what the
voters want to hear.
8.
National Opinion Poll: Party Support Trended Questions
9. Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you
give your first preference vote?
Party Support – First Preference – Including Don’t Knows
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
36
19
17
2
15
10
Independents/others
General
Election Result
Feb 2011
%
Fianna Fáil
Fine Gael
Labour
Sinn Féin
The Green Party
Opinion Poll
Jan/Feb 2016
Including
Don’t Knows
%
Opinion Poll
Jan/Feb 2016
Excluding
Don’t Knows
%
20 27
4
6 17
22 17
22 16
21
1
1
25
Independents/Others
Fianna Fáil
Fine Gael
Labour
Sinn Féin
Don’t know
Green Party
Other parties include: %
AAA/PbP 2
Renua 1
Social Democrats 1
Socialist Party <1
Other parties 1
10. Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you
give your first preference vote?
Party Support First Preference (excluding don’t knows)
Base: All giving a first preference
25 24 23 27 26 29 27 28 27 27 30 27 29 25 25 22 22 25 25 29 24
29 27
29 27 26 27 29
28 25 27 27 24
26 21
22 20 21
20 18 19 19
23 23
24 22
20 16 19
17 19 19 21 19 19 21
16 22 20
24 22 26 21
26 24
21 21
21 21
9 12 12
11 8 8 8 10 9 9 12
8 6 7 9 7
5
6 8 6
7
7 6
1 2 1 1 1 1
2 1 1 1
1 2 2 1 1 1
2
1 3 1 1
1 1
- -
* - -
- - -
16 18 18 17 18 15 18 14 17 18 15 20 21 23 23 23
32 23 20 20 24
19 22
Independents/ others*
Green Party Labour
Sinn Féin
Fianna Fáil
Fine Gael
May
5th-16th
2013
%
May
17th–28th
2013
%
June
20th–28th
2013
%
Aug
3rd-12th
2013
%
Aug
17th-27th
2013
%
Sep
13th–25th
2013
%
Sep 30th -
Oct 9th
%
Nov
3rd-13th
%
Jan
15th-24th
2014
%
Feb
19th-28th
2014
%
Mar 30th–
Apr 10th
2013
%
Mar
4th–14th
2013
%
Apr
5th-15th
2014
%
Jul
18th–30th
2014
%
Sep
9th-18th
2014
%
Oct
21st–31st
2014
%
Dec
8th-18th
2014
%
Jan 29th
-Feb 9th
2015
%
Mar 24th
- Apr 2nd
2015
%
19th-26th
June
2015
%
19th-30th
July
2015
%
28th Oct-
6th Nov
2015
%
* Includes all other parties
United Left Alliance
25th Jan-
4th Feb
2016
%
11. Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you
give your first preference vote?
Party Support First Preference (excluding don’t knows)
Base: All giving a first preference
* Includes all other parties
24 25
24 23
27 26
29 27
28 27 27
30
27 29
25 25
22 22
25 25
29
24
29 27
23
29 27
26 27
29 28
25 27 27
24 26
21 22
20 21
20 18
19 19
23 23 24
22 21
20
16
19 17
19 19 21
19 19 21
16
22 20
24 22
26
21
26 24
21 21 21 21
11 9
12 12 11
8 8 8 10
9 9
12
8 6
7 9
7 5
6 8
6 7 7
6
2 1
2 1 1 1 1
2 1 1 1 1
2 2 1 1 1
2 1
3 1 1 1 1 1
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
19
16 18 18
17 18
15
18
14
17 18
15
20 21
23 23 23
32
23
20 20
24
19
22
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Feb16th-28th2013
Mar 4th-14th2013
Mar30th-Apr
10th2013
May 5th-16th2013
May17th-28th2013
Jun20th-28th2013
Aug 3rd-12th2013
Aug17th-27th2013
Sep13th-25th2013
Sep30th-Oct
9th
Nov 3rd-13th
Jan15th-24th2014
Feb19th-24th2014
Apr 5th-15th2014
Jul 18th-30th2014
Sep 9th-18th2014
Oct21st-31st2014
Dec 8th-18th2014
Jan29th-Feb9th 2015
Mar24th-Apr2nd 2015
19th-26th Jun
2015
19th-30th Jul
2015
28thOct-6th
Nov2015
25th Jan- 4th
Feb 2016
Fine Gael Fianna Fail Sinn Fein Labour Green Party United Left Alliance Independents/Others*
12. Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you
give your first preference vote?
Trended Party Support First Preference (excluding don’t knows)
Base: All giving a first preference
*ULA now included in Independents/others from late May onwards
*People Before Profit now included in Independents/others (July 2014)
36
29 27 28 27 27
30 27
29 25 25
22 22 25 25
29
24
29 27
17
28 25
27 27 24
26
21 22 20 21 20
18 19 19 23 23 24
22
10
19 21
19 19 21
16
22 20
24 22
26
21
26 24
21 21 21 21
19
8 8 10 9 9
12 8
6 7 9
7 5 6
8 6 7 7 6
2 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 3
1 1 1 1
15 15 18
14 17 18
15
20 21 23 23 23
32
23 20 20
24
19 22
INDEPENDENTS OTHERS*
GREEN PARTY LABOUR
SINN FÉIN FIANNA FÁIL FINE GAEL
13.
Nearly three in ten are satisfied with the Government’s performance at the outset of the General Election
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
HIGHER AMONG %
Males 34
Age 65+ 39
ABs 37
Dublin Residents 33
Farming Community 40
Fine Gael Supporters 74
Labour Supporters 44
62%
29%
9% Don’t know (8%)
Dissatisfied (60%) Satisfied
(32%)
HIGHER AMONG %
Females 66
Age 25-34 67
Age 55-64 67
C2s 70
Fianna Fáil Supporters 78
Sinn Féin Supporters 85
Independents Supporters 84
Less than one in three are happy
with the current performance
( )= Nov 2015 Results
14.
Satisfaction with Government Over Time
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
75 73 74 75 73 72 71 73 74 68 71
66 69 62
73 71 68 69 63 67
60 62
17 19 18 17 19 19 20 21 19
23 20 24
23 27
21 19 23
26 29 25
32 29
8 8 8 7 7 10 9 6 7 10 9 9 8 11 6
9 9 5 8 8 8 9
Dissatisfied
Satisfied
Don’t know
Apr
’13
%
May
5th–16th
’13
%
May
17th-28th
’13
%
June
20th–28th
‘13
%
Aug
3rd-12th
‘13
%
Aug
17th-27th
‘13
%
Sept
13th-25th
’13
%
Sept 30th -
Oct 9th
‘13
%
Nov
3rd-13th
‘13
%
Jan
15th-24th
‘14
%
Feb
19th–28th
2014
%
Apr
5th-15th
2013
%
Jul 18th–30th
2014 %
Sep 9th–18th 2014
%
Oct 21st–31st
2014 %
Dec 8th–18th 2014
%
2014 results
2013 results
Jan 29th –
Feb 9th 2015
%
2015 results
Mar 24th
- Apr 2nd
2015
%
19th-26th
June
2015
%
19th-30th
July
2015
%
28th Oct-
6th Nov
2015
%
25th Jan-
4th Feb
2016
%
15.
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour?
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland?
Satisfaction with Party Leaders
Satisfied
Dissatisfied
25 27 27 31 25 21 24 27
32 25
31 27 18 16
27 30 28 22 23 25 26
20 24 22 28 26 27 30 29
24 29 30
36 32 32 27 28 26 25 28 27 23
29 32 30 30 27 27 20 21
16 18 16
65 62 61 58 67 69
64 67 59
66 60 62
68 69
40 48
56 62 61 65
57 65 62 62
54 56 49 48
54 56 49
57
45 49 49 48 52 54 46 48
56 57 50
56 52 51 55 51 44
37 37 42 42
Enda Kenny Joan Burton Michéal Martin Gerry Adams Eamon Gilmore
Don’t know (10) (11) (13) (11) (8) (10) (12) (7) (9) (9) (9) (11)
Feb ’14 %
Apr ’14 %
Jul ’14 %
Sep ’14 %
Oct ’14 %
Dec ’14 %
Feb ’15 %
Lucinda Creighton
(14) (15) (33) (22) (17) (16) (16) (11) (16) (14) (14) (16) (19) (18) (24) (21) (17) (20) (22) (13) (19) (19) (20) (25) (20) (21) (28) (24) (17) (20) (21) (12) (18) (19) (18) (21) (36) (42) (47) (39) (43)
Mar/ Apr ’15 %
June ’15 %
Mar/ Apr ’15 %
June ’15 %
July ’15 %
July ’15 %
Oct/ Nov ’15 %
Oct/ Nov ’15 %
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
Feb ’16 %
Feb ’14 %
Apr ’14 %
Jul ’14 %
Sep ’14 %
Oct ’14 %
Dec ’14 %
Feb ’15 %
Mar/ Apr ’15 %
June ’15 %
July ’15 %
Oct/ Nov ’15 %
Feb ’16 %
Feb ’14 %
Apr ’14 %
Jul ’14 %
Sep ’14 %
Oct ’14 %
Dec ’14 %
Feb ’15 %
Mar/ Apr ’15 %
June ’15 %
July ’15 %
Oct/ Nov ’15 %
Feb ’16 %
Feb ’14 %
Apr ’14 %
Jul ’14 %
Sep ’14 %
Oct ’14 %
Dec ’14 %
Feb ’15 %
Mar/ Apr ’15 %
June ’15 %
July ’15 %
Oct/ Nov ’15 %
Feb ’16 %
Feb ’16 %
16. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?
Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Enda Kenny
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 65+ 37
ABC1s 31
Farming Community 48
Fine Gael Supporters 70
Labour Supporters 38 62%
27%
11%
Don’t know (9%)
Dissatisfied (60%) Satisfied
(31%)
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 25-34 66
Age 55-64 69
C2DEs 67
Fianna Fáil Supporters 74
Sinn Féin Supporters 90
Independents Supporters 79
( )= Nov 2015 Results
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
17. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour?
Satisfaction with Joan Burton
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 65+ 33
ABs 34
Leinster Residents 28
Fine Gael Supporters 46
Labour Supporters 72
62%
22%
16%
Don’t know (14%)
Dissatisfied (62%)
Satisfied (24%)
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 55-64 71
C2DEs 68
Farming Community 67
Conn/Ulster 68
Fianna Fáil Supporters 69
Sinn Féin Supporters 83
Independents Supporters 81
( )= Nov 2015 Results
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
18.
48%
27%
25%
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?
Satisfaction with Michéal Martin
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 55-64 32
Age 65+ 41
Farming Community 34
Munster Residents 33
Fianna Fáil Supporters 72
Don’t know (20%)
Dissatisfied (49%)
Satisfied (32%)
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 55-64 54
ABs 52
Leinster Residents 55
Labour Supporters 68
Sinn Féin Supporters 63
Independents Supporters 66
( )= Nov 2015 Results
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
19.
51%
27%
21%
Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?
Satisfaction with Gerry Adams
Don’t know (18%)
Dissatisfied (55%)
Satisfied (27%)
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 18-24 38
C2s 33
Dublin Residents 36
Sinn Féin Supporters 73
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 65+ 69
ABs 66
Farming Community 74
Conn/Ulster Residents 62
Fianna Fáil Supporters 68
Fine Gael Supporters 62
Labour Supporters 68
Independents Supporters 65
( )= Nov 2015 Results
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
20. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua
Ireland?
Satisfaction with Lucinda Creighton
42%
16%
43%
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 55-64 50
Age 65+ 48
Farming Community 49
Leinster Residents 48
Conn/Ulster Residents 51
Fianna Fáil Supporters 52
Independents Supporters 55
HIGHER AMONG %
ABs 22
Dublin Residents 21
Labour Supporters 27
Independents Supporters 21
Don’t know (39%)
Dissatisfied (42%)
Satisfied (18%)
( )= Nov 2015 Results
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
21.
Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?
Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour?
Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?
Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?
Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland?
Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support
SATISFIED
DISSATISFIED
27%
22%
27%
27%
16%
Enda Kenny
Joan Burton
Michéal Martin
Gerry Adams
Lucinda Creighton
Total
62%
62%
48%
51%
42%
23 51 74 90 79
44 23 69 83 81
48 68 21 63 66
62 68 68 20 65
34 40 52 40 55
Supporters %
Supporters %
Supporters %
Supporters %
Independent/ Other Party Supporters*
%
70 38 21 9 16
46 72 24 9 12
28 13 72 14 19
20 21 19 73 22
14 27 16 17 21
Enda Kenny
Joan Burton
Michéal Martin
Gerry Adams
Lucinda Creighton
* Includes all other parties
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
22. Q. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in any upcoming election?
Which Parties are most toxic to whom? Fianna Fáil are the least toxic of the main parties
WOULD NOT
CONSIDER
34%
31%
24%
37%
19%
16%
12%
9%
Fine Gael (32)
Labour (30)
Fianna Fáil (25)
Sinn Féin (38)
Socialist Party (20)
AAA-People Before
Profit (16)
Renua (12)
Social Democrats (11)
Total Supporters %
Supporters %
Supporters %
Supporters %
Independent/ Other party Supporters*
%
- 24 41 69 54
12 - 37 54 49
23 38 - 41 43
65 53 53 - 41
29 18 29 10 14
26 22 21 6 15
15 16 13 11 15
13 9 12 4 10
* Includes all other parties ( )= Nov 2015 Results
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
23. Q. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in any upcoming election?
Which Parties are most toxic to whom? Trended Results
WOULD NOT
CONSIDER
Fine Gael
Labour
Fianna Fáil
Sinn Féin
Socialist Party
AAA-People Before
Profit
Renua
Social Democrats
Jan/Feb ’16
% Apr ’15
% Jun ’15
% Jul ’15
% Nov ’15
%
40 32 39 32
32 30 36 30
30 24 29 25
32 37 31 38
16 18 13 20
- - - 16
14 13 9 12
- - - 11
( )= Nov 2015 Results
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
34
31
24
37
19
16
12
9
24.
National Opinion Poll: January/February 2016 - Special Questions for Publication on 7th February 2016
25. Q. How certain are you about your decision to vote the way you intend to in the upcoming General Election?
How certain are voters in their convictions? Overall, one in five could be swayed, with Labour being most vulnerable
Absolutely certain
35 44
35 31 21
32
45 35
48 56
40
44
14 15 12 9
33
15
5 5 3
3
6
9
Don’t know 1 1 1 1 - *
Net Score (Any confident minus
Any doubters)
61 59 68 75 22 52
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
Pretty certain
Some reservations
Not at all certain
Total
(984)
%
Fine Gael
Supporters
(199)
%
Fianna Fáil
Supporters
(169)
%
Sinn Fein
Supporters
(160)
%
Labour
Supporters
(45)
%
Independents
Supporters*
(174)
%
80%
19%
79%
20%
83%
15%
87%
12%
61%
39%
76%
24%
* Includes all other parties
26. Q. Which of the following combinations do you believe will form the best Government?
The jury is out on a preferred coalition option post 26th February
14%
14%
9%
7%
5%
5%
4%
3%
2%
14%
23%
Fine Gael & Labour Combination
Sinn Féin & Independents Combination
Fine Gael & Fianna Fáil Combination
Fianna Fáil & Sinn Féin Combination
Fine Gael, Labour & Independents Combination
Fine Gael & Independents Combination
Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin & Independents Combination
Overall Fine Gael Majority
Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin & Labour Combination
Some Other Combination
Don’t Know
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
27. Q. How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements…
33% 42%
5% 8%
Any Agree
Any Disagree
It Depends
Don't Know
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
“A change of Government would put Ireland’s economic stability at risk”
“A change of Government would help create a fairer society”
50%
19%
6%
8%
Any Agree
Any Disagree
It Depends
Don't Know
AGREEMENT
HIGHER AMONG %
Males 37
Age 65+ 41
ABs 37
Farming Community 38
Conn/Ulster Residents 36
DISAGREEMENT
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 35-44 46
Farming Community 49
Dublin Residents 50
AGREEMENT
HIGHER AMONG %
C2s 53
Dublin Residents 53
Conn/Ulster Residents 61
DISAGREEMENT
HIGHER AMONG %
Age 65+ 26
C1s 24
Leinster Residents 25
Just one in three believe that economic stability is at risk by a change of Government, yet half feel it could lead to a fairer society
28.
Unsurprisingly, FG and Labour supporters are most likely to follow the Government mantra of “Stability vs Chaos”
Q How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements…
13
28
8 10
33
5
20
32
25 14
19
15
13
10
15
10
14
16
14
11
20
15
12
16
28
12
27
46
17
40
5
3 2 2 2 6 8 4 4 4 3 1
Total
%
Fine Gael
Supporters
(199)
%
Fianna Fáil
Supporters
(169)
%
Sinn Fein
Supporters
(160)
%
Labour
Supporters
(45)
%
Independents
Supporters*
(174)
%
33%
42%
60%
23%
33%
47%
24%
61%
52%
29%
20%
56%
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Neither
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree
It depends
Don’t know
“A change of Government would put Ireland’s economic stability at risk”
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
* Includes all other parties
29.
Sinn Féin supporters are most vociferous in their view that a change of Government will lead to a fairer society
Q How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements…
20
5
24
46
16 21
30
17
46
35
20
39
17
23
11
8
22
19 10
22
7
3
19
5 10 23
4 4
13 8 6
6 6 1
3 6 8
4 2 4 7 2
Total
%
Fine Gael
Supporters
(199)
%
Fianna Fáil
Supporters
(169)
%
Sinn Fein
Supporters
(160)
%
Labour
Supporters
(45)
%
Independents
Supporters*
(174)
%
50%
19%
22%
45%
70%
11%
81%
7%
36%
32%
60%
13%
Strongly agree
Somewhat agree
Neither
Somewhat disagree
Strongly disagree
It depends
Don’t know
“A change of Government would help create a fairer society” Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
* Includes all other parties
30.
Total
Fine Gael
Supporters
Fianna Fáil
Supporters
Sinn Fein
Supporters
Labour
Supporters
Independents
Supporters*
(199) (169) (160) (45) (174)
1st Mention % % % % % %
Health Services/Hospitals 35 38 40 30 42
Unemployment/jobs 9 10 15 11 15
Management of the economy 21 15 7 17 9
Crime/Law and Order 14 12 8 13 7
The homeless situation/Lack of Local Authority Housing 8 7 10 9 9
Mortgage Repayment Rates/House prices/Cost of Rent 5 6 10 7 8
Water Charges 3 7 7 2 3
Childcare 2 2 1 7 3
Abortion * * - 2 2
Issues within my own constituency - * 1 2 1
Something else 2 1 1 - 1
Don't know 1 1 - - 1
Q What are the most important issues or problems that will influence your decision as to how you will vote in the
next General Election. What other issues are important to you in this election?
Health services is the number one issue for over a third of the population, with a broad consensus emerging across all Party supporters
37%
13%
11%
10%
9%
7%
5%
3%
1%
1%
1%
2%
* Includes all other parties
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
31.
Health Services/Hospitals
Unemployment/jobs
The homeless situation/Lack of Local Authority Housing
Management of the economy
Crime/Law and Order
Water Charges
Mortgage Repayment Rates/House prices/Cost of Rent
Childcare
Abortion
Issues within my own constituency
Something else
Don't know
Q What are the most important issues or problems that will influence your decision as to how you will vote in the
next General Election. PROBE: What other issues are important to you in this election?
When other issues of importance are added to the mix, health and unemployment remain on top, but housing becomes more prominent
37%
13%
9%
11%
10%
5%
7%
3%
1%
1%
1%
2%
22%
15%
17%
11%
8%
9%
10%
4%
2%
1%
1%
1%
13%
17%
16%
10%
13%
12%
8%
4%
2%
2%
2%
2%
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
1st Mention
2nd
Mention 3rd
Mention
Any Mention
72
44
40
32
31
26
23
11
5
3
4
4
32.
Trust Most x Party Support
Trust Most Fine Gael
Supporters
Fianna Fáil
Supporters
Sinn Fein
Supporters
Labour
Supporters
Independents
Supporters*
(199) (169) (160) (45) (174)
% % % % % %
Fine Gael 84 9 3 15 14
Fianna Fáil 4 72 8 8 7
Sinn Fein 3 2 63 2 8
Labour - 1 1 59 2
Somebody else * 2 4 4 25
None of them 4 3 12 5 28
Don’t know 6 10 9 8 16
Q Which one of the following parties do you trust most to manage the public finances over the next 5 years?
Fine Gael is the party most trusted to manage the economy, but not overwhelmingly so
24%
17%
13%
3%
7%
16%
19%
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
* Includes all other parties
33. Q Which one of the following parties do you trust least to manage the public finances over the next 5 years?
Over three in ten trust Sinn Féin least to manage public finances
17%
10%
31%
11%
2%
8%
21%
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
* Includes all other parties
Trust Most x Party Support
Trust Least Fine Gael
Supporters
Fianna Fáil
Supporters
Sinn Fein
Supporters
Labour
Supporters
Independents
Supporters*
(199) (169) (160) (45) (174)
% % % % % %
Fine Gael 2 19 45 19 21
Fianna Fáil 16 * 10 23 18
Sinn Fein 63 49 4 42 24
Labour 8 16 21 - 15
Somebody else 1 2 2 - 5
None of them 2 1 4 3 8
Don’t know 7 11 14 14 10
34.
Fine Gael
Supporters
Fianna Fáil
Supporters
Sinn Fein
Supporters
Labour
Supporters
Independents
Supporters*
(199) (169) (160) (45) (174)
The next Government
should focus most on… % % % % % %
Improving public services 41 42 33 35 44
Tax cuts 22 20 34 25 25
Boosting social benefits 11 24 22 18 21
Reducing the national debt 21 10 9 22 8
It depends 2 1 1 - 1
Don’t know 2 3 1 - *
Q Which of the following objectives do you think the next Government should place most importance on? And
what is second most important objective? And which is the third most important?
Nearly two in five feel the priority for the next Government should be to improve public services
39%
25%
19%
12%
2%
3%
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
* Includes all other parties
35.
The next Government should
focus on…
Improving public services
Tax cuts
Boosting Social Benefits
Reducing the national debt
It depends
Don’t know
Q Which of the following objectives do you think the next Government should place most importance on? And
what is second most important objective? And which is the third most important?
Overall Objectives for the next Government – Improving Public services remains sacrosanct. The national debt is deemed of lesser importance
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
39%
25%
19%
12%
2%
3%
29%
20%
25%
23%
1%
2%
19%
26%
23%
23%
4%
5%
Any Mention
83
68
64
55
6
10
Most Important
2nd Most Important
3rd Most Important
36.
16
48
33
3
Q. Taking everything into consideration would you say you are
personally better off, worse off or in the same situation as
you were THIS TIME LAST YEAR?
Better Off (16)
Same (48)
Worse Off (35)
Net Difference* (-19)
Compared to last year
%
-17
%
23
43
17
17
This time next year? February
2015
Q. This time NEXT YEAR, do you think that you
personally will be better off, worse off or in
the same situation as you are now?
Don’t know (1)
Personal situation: one in six feel they are better off than last year, and nearly one in four feel they will be better off next year
February 2017
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
() = Nov 2015 Results
Better Off (20)
Same (46)
Worse Off (22)
Net Difference* (-2) +6
Don’t know (12)
*= Better off minus worse off
37. Q. This time next year, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same
situation as you are now?
Historical Picture: Personal Situation Compared To This Time Last Year
17
27 24
27
11
5 6 7 10
4 4 7 6 8 8
12 13 11 16 16 16
49
59 60
46 43
29 34 33 32
27
33 29 31 32
27 31
43
40 39
48 48
34
15 16
27
46
66
59 60 57
68
61 63 64 59
64
57
41
43 40 35 33
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
PreCeltic
Tiger '92
MidCeltic
Tiger '97
Post9/11 '02
Sep '08 Jan '09 Apr '09 Sep '09 Mar '10 Sep '10 Jan '11 Mar '11 Sep '11 Jan '12 Jul'12 Mar '13 Oct '13 Jul '14 Dec '14 July '15 Oct/Nov'15
Feb '16
Net Change
-17 +12 +8 +0 -35 -61 -53 -53 -47 -64 -57 -56 -58 -51 -56 -45 -28 -32 -24 -19 -17
COMPARED TO LAST YEAR
BETTER OFF
SAME
WORSE OFF
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
38. Q. This time next year, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same
situation as you are now?
Historical Picture: Personal Situation This Time Next Year. For the first time since the crash, our financial outlook is in positive territory
36
28 26 22
25 29 29 30
33 29 31
26
32
16 15 18 17 17
11 13 12 10 13
10 11 14
17 18 15
19 20 23
54
62 64 68 68
63 62 59 58
61 58
63
45
38 33 35
44
37
31
39
33 32 34
28 30
36
50
41 44
41 46
43
10
9 8
8 7 7 9 11 9 10 11 11
23
46
52
41
34 40
52
39
50 52 47
59 54
45
27
33 31 29
22 17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
89 90 91 PreCelticTiger'92
93 94 95 96 MidCelticTiger'97
98 00 Post9/11 '02
Sept '08 Jan '09 Apr '09 Set '09 Mar '10 Sept '10 Jan '11 Mar '11 Sept '11 Jan '12 Jul'12 Dec'12 Mar '13 Oct '13 Dec '13 Jul '14 Dec '14 July '15 Oct/Nov'15
Feb '16
THIS TIME NEXT YEAR?
BETTER OFF
SAME
WORSE OFF
NET DIFFERENCE
+26 +19 +18 +14 +18 +22 +20 +19 +24 +19 +20 +15 +9 -30 -37 -23 -17 -23 -41 -26 -38 -42 -34 -49 -43 -31 -10 -15 -16 -10 -2 +6
Base: All Aged 18+ (984)
39.
For more information, please contact: Paul Moran
[email protected] 086 341 1970
Millbank House | Arkle Road | Sandyford | Dublin 18
t. +353 (1) 297 4500 | www.millwardbrown.com/ie