national opinion poll: january/february 2016 · 2016-02-09 · aug 3rd-12th 2013 aug 17th-27th 2013...

1.

National Opinion Poll: January/February 2016 - for Publication on 7th February 2016

2.

Introduction

A National Public Opinion Poll was conducted on behalf of The Sunday

Independent to be published on Sunday 7th February 2016.

The topics covered included party political support, satisfaction with

Government and party leaders, issues of importance in the upcoming

election and consumer financial sentiment.

Interviews were conducted face-to-face, in-home, with those aged 18+.

Quota controls were set on gender, age, social class and region to mirror

the 18+ population profile.

984 interviews were conducted at 64 sampling points nationwide.

Interviews were carried out between 25th January – 4th February 2016.

Data was weighted to reflect the adult population aged 18+.

The margin of error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.1%

3.

The survey results presented here are derived from

The Independent Newspaper Group/Millward Brown

Poll. The poll was conducted among a sample of 984

adults representative of the approximate 3.43 million

adults aged 18 and over - interviewed on a face-to-

face basis in the home at 64 sampling points

throughout the Republic of Ireland. The margin of

error for this opinion poll is +/- 3.1%

The 984 interviews on the poll were carried out

between 25th January – 4th February 2016.

The poll was conducted in accordance with the

guidelines set by ESOMAR and AIMRO (European and

Irish Market and Opinion Research governing bodies).

Extracts from the report may be quoted or published

on condition that due acknowledgement is given to

Millward Brown and The Sunday Independent.

© Millward Brown & The Sunday Independent 2016.

Introduction

POLL

4.

The Results

5.

Pre-election Poll shows nuanced opinions

This latest Millward Brown Poll, conducted over ten days up until last Thursday captured opinion during the long

goodbye to the 31st Dail, but also covered the first two days of the campaign.

It provides for interesting reading. Taking a step back, this election is still Fine Gael’s to lose, but the public is more

nuanced in their opinions than some may have anticipated.

First off, the headline figures. Fine Gael and Fianna Fail have slipped back marginally, whilst Labour remain in the

doldrums, and it’s as you were for Sinn Fein. Independents and other parties have shifted up somewhat, reflecting

potentially the most fractious election in recent generations.

Both Government parties will be somewhat deflated, if not downright disappointed by these latest results. Fine

Gael, at 27pc, will be concerned that the momentum that was apparent for the party in the autumn has dissipated.

For Labour, at 6pc the situation is far more critical. They have less than three weeks to kick start their recovery.

Given that they have remained in the doldrums for the past two years, unable to reach the psychological barrier of

10 percent in our tracking polls, it may well be that the tide has already gone too far out for them to muster any

respectable recovery. Damage limitation may be key, with the party having to focus only on those seats it has a

reasonable chance of actually winning.

For Fine Gael, the past couple of weeks have been less than stellar. Despite having the advantage of knowing when

the starter’s gun would be fired, they have still stumbled out of the blocks.

The opening days of their campaign have, at best, been lacklustre. Between the debate over the size of the already

much maligned catch phrase known as the Fiscal Space, and Enda Kenny’s less than sure-footed explanation to it ,

the omens are not good.

When the central platform of your manifesto message is financial prudence, it is worrying to be caught with a

sucker punch so quickly. When you are having to explain, you are losing. In addition, it will stick in both FG’s and

Labours throats that it was Sinn Fein who were seen to display the most fiscal rectitude on this issue. Strategists will

be seeking to move the debate on to other issues as swiftly as possible.

6.

Pre-election Poll shows nuanced opinions (Cont’d)

Vacillations over whether Fine Gael would seek the support of Michael Lowry or not have also done the party no

favours.

Both Fianna Fail (22pc) and Sinn Fein (21pc) will be happy with these results. They both have built a platform on

which to build.

The main movers have been Independents/other parties. Looking at the “smaller” parties, one suspects that their

branding is quite confusing – people are more likely to nominate individual (high profile) candidates by name rather

than the party they are associated with.

Taking a step back, the broader narrative of these results is that focusing too much on the economy is potentially a

risky strategy - the public don’t necessarily buy in to the Government argument of Stability vs Chaos- just one in

three agree with the doomsday scenario put forward by FG/Labour that a change in Government will put Ireland’s

economic stability at risk.

This approach may need to be re-visited, especially if it does not traction with the electorate soon. The alternative

is that the public will become irritated very quickly if the Government parties don’t adopt more agile strategies and

communications over the next couple of weeks.

One landmark result from this poll is that for the first time since the crash, financial sentiment has crept into

positive territory – that is, for the first time since 2008, more of us are upbeat about our financial situation over the

next twelve months than downbeat. Whilst the Government parties would like to take credit for this, external

factors also play a large part – something that opposition parties will be eager to articulate.

As it is, just over one in four (27pc) believe that either Fine Gael or Labour can most trusted to manage the

economy. Fianna Fail gets the nod from 17pc, whilst 13pc believe that Sinn Fein can be most trusted.

7.

Pre-election Poll shows nuanced opinions (Cont’d)

In addition, the preferred focus among the public for the next Government (whoever it may be) is that Public

Services should be improved (39pc) versus one in four nominating tax cuts, suggesting that hard-nosed economic

policy communications may not be the best advised route – Society and Social issues may take centre stage after

several years of savage cuts.

These are however, early days. Among decided voters, we asked how certain they were in their nomination. Nearly

one in five (19pc) either have some reservations or are not at all certain at this juncture. There are plenty of

potential switchers out there (unfortunately for Labour, 39% of their current supporters, albeit off a small base, are

potential waverers).

The ambition for all our political parties for the next two and a half weeks will be to actually understand what the

voters want to hear.

8.

National Opinion Poll: Party Support Trended Questions

9. Q. If a General Election were to take place tomorrow, to which Party or independent candidate would you

give your first preference vote?

Party Support – First Preference – Including Don’t Knows

Base: All Aged 18+ (984)

36

19

17

2

15

10

Independents/others

General

Election Result

Feb 2011

%

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

The Green Party

Opinion Poll

Jan/Feb 2016

Including

Don’t Knows

%

Opinion Poll

Jan/Feb 2016

Excluding

Don’t Knows

%

20 27

4

6 17

22 17

22 16

21

1

1

25

Independents/Others

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

Labour

Sinn Féin

Don’t know

Green Party

Other parties include: %

AAA/PbP 2

Renua 1

Social Democrats 1

Socialist Party <1

Other parties 1



Party Support First Preference (excluding don’t knows)

Base: All giving a first preference

25 24 23 27 26 29 27 28 27 27 30 27 29 25 25 22 22 25 25 29 24

29 27

29 27 26 27 29

28 25 27 27 24

26 21

22 20 21

20 18 19 19

23 23

24 22

20 16 19

17 19 19 21 19 19 21

16 22 20

24 22 26 21

26 24

21 21

21 21

9 12 12

11 8 8 8 10 9 9 12

8 6 7 9 7

5

6 8 6

7

7 6

1 2 1 1 1 1

2 1 1 1

1 2 2 1 1 1

2

1 3 1 1

1 1

- -

* - -

- - -

16 18 18 17 18 15 18 14 17 18 15 20 21 23 23 23

32 23 20 20 24

19 22

Independents/ others*

Green Party Labour

Sinn Féin

Fianna Fáil

Fine Gael

May

5th-16th

2013

%

May

17th–28th

2013

%

June

20th–28th

2013

%

Aug

3rd-12th

2013

%

Aug

17th-27th

2013

%

Sep

13th–25th

2013

%

Sep 30th -

Oct 9th

%

Nov

3rd-13th

%

Jan

15th-24th

2014

%

Feb

19th-28th

2014

%

Mar 30th–

Apr 10th

2013

%

Mar

4th–14th

2013

%

Apr

5th-15th

2014

%

Jul

18th–30th

2014

%

Sep

9th-18th

2014

%

Oct

21st–31st

2014

%

Dec

8th-18th

2014

%

Jan 29th

-Feb 9th

2015

%

Mar 24th

- Apr 2nd

2015

%

19th-26th

June

2015

%

19th-30th

July

2015

%

28th Oct-

6th Nov

2015

%

* Includes all other parties

United Left Alliance

25th Jan-

4th Feb

2016

%



Party Support First Preference (excluding don’t knows)



24 25

24 23

27 26

29 27

28 27 27

30

27 29

25 25

22 22

25 25

29

24

29 27

23

29 27

26 27

29 28

25 27 27

24 26

21 22

20 21

20 18

19 19

23 23 24

22 21

20

16

19 17

19 19 21

19 19 21

16

22 20

24 22

26

21

26 24

21 21 21 21

11 9

12 12 11

8 8 8 10

9 9

12

8 6

7 9

7 5

6 8

6 7 7

6

2 1

2 1 1 1 1

2 1 1 1 1

2 2 1 1 1

2 1

3 1 1 1 1 1

0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

19

16 18 18

17 18

15

18

14

17 18

15

20 21

23 23 23

32

23

20 20

24

19

22

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Feb16th-28th2013

Mar 4th-14th2013

Mar30th-Apr

10th2013

May 5th-16th2013

May17th-28th2013

Jun20th-28th2013

Aug 3rd-12th2013

Aug17th-27th2013

Sep13th-25th2013

Sep30th-Oct

9th

Nov 3rd-13th

Jan15th-24th2014

Feb19th-24th2014

Apr 5th-15th2014

Jul 18th-30th2014

Sep 9th-18th2014

Oct21st-31st2014

Dec 8th-18th2014

Jan29th-Feb9th 2015

Mar24th-Apr2nd 2015

19th-26th Jun

2015

19th-30th Jul

2015

28thOct-6th

Nov2015

25th Jan- 4th

Feb 2016

Fine Gael Fianna Fail Sinn Fein Labour Green Party United Left Alliance Independents/Others*



Trended Party Support First Preference (excluding don’t knows)


*ULA now included in Independents/others from late May onwards

*People Before Profit now included in Independents/others (July 2014)

36

29 27 28 27 27

30 27

29 25 25

22 22 25 25

29

24

29 27

17

28 25

27 27 24

26

21 22 20 21 20

18 19 19 23 23 24

22

10

19 21

19 19 21

16

22 20

24 22

26

21

26 24

21 21 21 21

19

8 8 10 9 9

12 8

6 7 9

7 5 6

8 6 7 7 6

2 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 2 1 3

1 1 1 1

15 15 18

14 17 18

15

20 21 23 23 23

32

23 20 20

24

19 22

INDEPENDENTS OTHERS*

GREEN PARTY LABOUR

SINN FÉIN FIANNA FÁIL FINE GAEL

13.

Nearly three in ten are satisfied with the Government’s performance at the outset of the General Election

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way the Government is running the country?


HIGHER AMONG %

Males 34

Age 65+ 39

ABs 37

Dublin Residents 33

Farming Community 40

Fine Gael Supporters 74

Labour Supporters 44

62%

29%

9% Don’t know (8%)

Dissatisfied (60%) Satisfied

(32%)

HIGHER AMONG %

Females 66

Age 25-34 67

Age 55-64 67

C2s 70

Fianna Fáil Supporters 78

Sinn Féin Supporters 85

Independents Supporters 84

Less than one in three are happy

with the current performance

( )= Nov 2015 Results

14.

Satisfaction with Government Over Time


75 73 74 75 73 72 71 73 74 68 71

66 69 62

73 71 68 69 63 67

60 62

17 19 18 17 19 19 20 21 19

23 20 24

23 27

21 19 23

26 29 25

32 29

8 8 8 7 7 10 9 6 7 10 9 9 8 11 6

9 9 5 8 8 8 9

Dissatisfied

Satisfied

Don’t know

Apr

’13

%

May

5th–16th

’13

%

May

17th-28th

’13

%

June

20th–28th

‘13

%

Aug

3rd-12th

‘13

%

Aug

17th-27th

‘13

%

Sept

13th-25th

’13

%

Sept 30th -

Oct 9th

‘13

%

Nov

3rd-13th

‘13

%

Jan

15th-24th

‘14

%

Feb

19th–28th

2014

%

Apr

5th-15th

2013

%

Jul 18th–30th

2014 %

Sep 9th–18th 2014

%

Oct 21st–31st

2014 %

Dec 8th–18th 2014

%

2014 results

2013 results

Jan 29th –

Feb 9th 2015

%

2015 results

Mar 24th

- Apr 2nd

2015

%

19th-26th

June

2015

%

19th-30th

July

2015

%

28th Oct-

6th Nov

2015

%

25th Jan-

4th Feb

2016

%

15.

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour?

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland?

Satisfaction with Party Leaders

Satisfied

Dissatisfied

25 27 27 31 25 21 24 27

32 25

31 27 18 16

27 30 28 22 23 25 26

20 24 22 28 26 27 30 29

24 29 30

36 32 32 27 28 26 25 28 27 23

29 32 30 30 27 27 20 21

16 18 16

65 62 61 58 67 69

64 67 59

66 60 62

68 69

40 48

56 62 61 65

57 65 62 62

54 56 49 48

54 56 49

57

45 49 49 48 52 54 46 48

56 57 50

56 52 51 55 51 44

37 37 42 42

Enda Kenny Joan Burton Michéal Martin Gerry Adams Eamon Gilmore

Don’t know (10) (11) (13) (11) (8) (10) (12) (7) (9) (9) (9) (11)

Feb ’14 %

Apr ’14 %

Jul ’14 %

Sep ’14 %

Oct ’14 %

Dec ’14 %

Feb ’15 %

Lucinda Creighton

(14) (15) (33) (22) (17) (16) (16) (11) (16) (14) (14) (16) (19) (18) (24) (21) (17) (20) (22) (13) (19) (19) (20) (25) (20) (21) (28) (24) (17) (20) (21) (12) (18) (19) (18) (21) (36) (42) (47) (39) (43)

Mar/ Apr ’15 %

June ’15 %

Mar/ Apr ’15 %

June ’15 %

July ’15 %

July ’15 %

Oct/ Nov ’15 %

Oct/ Nov ’15 %


Feb ’16 %

Feb ’14 %

Apr ’14 %

Jul ’14 %

Sep ’14 %

Oct ’14 %

Dec ’14 %

Feb ’15 %

Mar/ Apr ’15 %

June ’15 %

July ’15 %

Oct/ Nov ’15 %

Feb ’16 %

Feb ’14 %

Apr ’14 %

Jul ’14 %

Sep ’14 %

Oct ’14 %

Dec ’14 %

Feb ’15 %

Mar/ Apr ’15 %

June ’15 %

July ’15 %

Oct/ Nov ’15 %

Feb ’16 %

Feb ’14 %

Apr ’14 %

Jul ’14 %

Sep ’14 %

Oct ’14 %

Dec ’14 %

Feb ’15 %

Mar/ Apr ’15 %

June ’15 %

July ’15 %

Oct/ Nov ’15 %

Feb ’16 %

Feb ’16 %

16. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?

Satisfaction with An Taoiseach Enda Kenny

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 65+ 37

ABC1s 31



Labour Supporters 38 62%

27%

11%

Don’t know (9%)

Dissatisfied (60%) Satisfied

(31%)

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 25-34 66

Age 55-64 69

C2DEs 67






17. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour?

Satisfaction with Joan Burton

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 65+ 33

ABs 34

Leinster Residents 28



62%

22%

16%

Don’t know (14%)

Dissatisfied (62%)

Satisfied (24%)

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 55-64 71

C2DEs 68


Conn/Ulster 68






18.

48%

27%

25%

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?

Satisfaction with Michéal Martin

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 55-64 32

Age 65+ 41


Munster Residents 33


Don’t know (20%)

Dissatisfied (49%)

Satisfied (32%)

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 55-64 54

ABs 52







19.

51%

27%

21%

Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

Satisfaction with Gerry Adams

Don’t know (18%)

Dissatisfied (55%)

Satisfied (27%)

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 18-24 38

C2s 33

Dublin Residents 36


HIGHER AMONG %

Age 65+ 69

ABs 66


Conn/Ulster Residents 62







20. Q. Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua

Ireland?

Satisfaction with Lucinda Creighton

42%

16%

43%

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 55-64 50

Age 65+ 48






HIGHER AMONG %

ABs 22

Dublin Residents 21



Don’t know (39%)

Dissatisfied (42%)

Satisfied (18%)



21.

Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with Enda Kenny as Taoiseach?

Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Joan Burton is doing her job as leader of Labour?

Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Michéal Martin is doing his job as leader of Fianna Fáil?

Q Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Gerry Adams is doing his job as leader of Sinn Féin?

Q.Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way Lucinda Creighton is doing her job as leader of Renua Ireland?

Satisfaction with Party Leaders X Party Support

SATISFIED

DISSATISFIED

27%

22%

27%

27%

16%

Enda Kenny

Joan Burton

Michéal Martin

Gerry Adams

Lucinda Creighton

Total

62%

62%

48%

51%

42%

23 51 74 90 79

44 23 69 83 81

48 68 21 63 66

62 68 68 20 65

34 40 52 40 55

Supporters %

Supporters %

Supporters %

Supporters %

Independent/ Other Party Supporters*

%

70 38 21 9 16

46 72 24 9 12

28 13 72 14 19

20 21 19 73 22

14 27 16 17 21

Enda Kenny

Joan Burton

Michéal Martin

Gerry Adams

Lucinda Creighton



22. Q. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in any upcoming election?

Which Parties are most toxic to whom? Fianna Fáil are the least toxic of the main parties

WOULD NOT

CONSIDER

34%

31%

24%

37%

19%

16%

12%

9%

Fine Gael (32)

Labour (30)

Fianna Fáil (25)

Sinn Féin (38)

Socialist Party (20)

AAA-People Before

Profit (16)

Renua (12)

Social Democrats (11)

Total Supporters %

Supporters %

Supporters %

Supporters %

Independent/ Other party Supporters*

%

- 24 41 69 54

12 - 37 54 49

23 38 - 41 43

65 53 53 - 41

29 18 29 10 14

26 22 21 6 15

15 16 13 11 15

13 9 12 4 10

* Includes all other parties ( )= Nov 2015 Results


23. Q. Which of the following parties or political groupings would you NOT consider voting for in any upcoming election?

Which Parties are most toxic to whom? Trended Results

WOULD NOT

CONSIDER

Fine Gael

Labour

Fianna Fáil

Sinn Féin

Socialist Party

AAA-People Before

Profit

Renua

Social Democrats

Jan/Feb ’16

% Apr ’15

% Jun ’15

% Jul ’15

% Nov ’15

%

40 32 39 32

32 30 36 30

30 24 29 25

32 37 31 38

16 18 13 20

- - - 16

14 13 9 12

- - - 11



34

31

24

37

19

16

12

9

24.

National Opinion Poll: January/February 2016 - Special Questions for Publication on 7th February 2016

25. Q. How certain are you about your decision to vote the way you intend to in the upcoming General Election?

How certain are voters in their convictions? Overall, one in five could be swayed, with Labour being most vulnerable

Absolutely certain

35 44

35 31 21

32

45 35

48 56

40

44

14 15 12 9

33

15

5 5 3

3

6

9

Don’t know 1 1 1 1 - *

Net Score (Any confident minus

Any doubters)

61 59 68 75 22 52


Pretty certain

Some reservations

Not at all certain

Total

(984)

%

Fine Gael

Supporters

(199)

%

Fianna Fáil

Supporters

(169)

%

Sinn Fein

Supporters

(160)

%

Labour

Supporters

(45)

%

Independents

Supporters*

(174)

%

80%

19%

79%

20%

83%

15%

87%

12%

61%

39%

76%

24%


26. Q. Which of the following combinations do you believe will form the best Government?

The jury is out on a preferred coalition option post 26th February

14%

14%

9%

7%

5%

5%

4%

3%

2%

14%

23%

Fine Gael & Labour Combination

Sinn Féin & Independents Combination

Fine Gael & Fianna Fáil Combination

Fianna Fáil & Sinn Féin Combination

Fine Gael, Labour & Independents Combination

Fine Gael & Independents Combination

Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin & Independents Combination

Overall Fine Gael Majority

Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin & Labour Combination

Some Other Combination

Don’t Know


27. Q. How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements…

33% 42%

5% 8%

Any Agree

Any Disagree

It Depends

Don't Know


“A change of Government would put Ireland’s economic stability at risk”

“A change of Government would help create a fairer society”

50%

19%

6%

8%

Any Agree

Any Disagree

It Depends

Don't Know

AGREEMENT

HIGHER AMONG %

Males 37

Age 65+ 41

ABs 37



DISAGREEMENT

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 35-44 46


Dublin Residents 50

AGREEMENT

HIGHER AMONG %

C2s 53

Dublin Residents 53


DISAGREEMENT

HIGHER AMONG %

Age 65+ 26

C1s 24


Just one in three believe that economic stability is at risk by a change of Government, yet half feel it could lead to a fairer society

28.

Unsurprisingly, FG and Labour supporters are most likely to follow the Government mantra of “Stability vs Chaos”

Q How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements…

13

28

8 10

33

5

20

32

25 14

19

15

13

10

15

10

14

16

14

11

20

15

12

16

28

12

27

46

17

40

5

3 2 2 2 6 8 4 4 4 3 1

Total

%

Fine Gael

Supporters

(199)

%

Fianna Fáil

Supporters

(169)

%

Sinn Fein

Supporters

(160)

%

Labour

Supporters

(45)

%

Independents

Supporters*

(174)

%

33%

42%

60%

23%

33%

47%

24%

61%

52%

29%

20%

56%

Strongly agree

Somewhat agree

Neither

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

It depends

Don’t know

“A change of Government would put Ireland’s economic stability at risk”



29.

Sinn Féin supporters are most vociferous in their view that a change of Government will lead to a fairer society

Q How strongly do you agree or disagree with the following statements…

20

5

24

46

16 21

30

17

46

35

20

39

17

23

11

8

22

19 10

22

7

3

19

5 10 23

4 4

13 8 6

6 6 1

3 6 8

4 2 4 7 2

Total

%

Fine Gael

Supporters

(199)

%

Fianna Fáil

Supporters

(169)

%

Sinn Fein

Supporters

(160)

%

Labour

Supporters

(45)

%

Independents

Supporters*

(174)

%

50%

19%

22%

45%

70%

11%

81%

7%

36%

32%

60%

13%

Strongly agree

Somewhat agree

Neither

Somewhat disagree

Strongly disagree

It depends

Don’t know

“A change of Government would help create a fairer society” Base: All Aged 18+ (984)


30.

Total

Fine Gael

Supporters

Fianna Fáil

Supporters

Sinn Fein

Supporters

Labour

Supporters

Independents

Supporters*

(199) (169) (160) (45) (174)

1st Mention % % % % % %

Health Services/Hospitals 35 38 40 30 42

Unemployment/jobs 9 10 15 11 15

Management of the economy 21 15 7 17 9

Crime/Law and Order 14 12 8 13 7

The homeless situation/Lack of Local Authority Housing 8 7 10 9 9

Mortgage Repayment Rates/House prices/Cost of Rent 5 6 10 7 8

Water Charges 3 7 7 2 3

Childcare 2 2 1 7 3

Abortion * * - 2 2

Issues within my own constituency - * 1 2 1

Something else 2 1 1 - 1

Don't know 1 1 - - 1

Q What are the most important issues or problems that will influence your decision as to how you will vote in the

next General Election. What other issues are important to you in this election?

Health services is the number one issue for over a third of the population, with a broad consensus emerging across all Party supporters

37%

13%

11%

10%

9%

7%

5%

3%

1%

1%

1%

2%



31.

Health Services/Hospitals

Unemployment/jobs

The homeless situation/Lack of Local Authority Housing

Management of the economy

Crime/Law and Order

Water Charges

Mortgage Repayment Rates/House prices/Cost of Rent

Childcare

Abortion

Issues within my own constituency

Something else

Don't know

Q What are the most important issues or problems that will influence your decision as to how you will vote in the

next General Election. PROBE: What other issues are important to you in this election?

When other issues of importance are added to the mix, health and unemployment remain on top, but housing becomes more prominent

37%

13%

9%

11%

10%

5%

7%

3%

1%

1%

1%

2%

22%

15%

17%

11%

8%

9%

10%

4%

2%

1%

1%

1%

13%

17%

16%

10%

13%

12%

8%

4%

2%

2%

2%

2%


1st Mention

2nd

Mention 3rd

Mention

Any Mention

72

44

40

32

31

26

23

11

5

3

4

4

32.

Trust Most x Party Support

Trust Most Fine Gael

Supporters

Fianna Fáil

Supporters

Sinn Fein

Supporters

Labour

Supporters

Independents

Supporters*

(199) (169) (160) (45) (174)

% % % % % %

Fine Gael 84 9 3 15 14

Fianna Fáil 4 72 8 8 7

Sinn Fein 3 2 63 2 8

Labour - 1 1 59 2

Somebody else * 2 4 4 25

None of them 4 3 12 5 28

Don’t know 6 10 9 8 16

Q Which one of the following parties do you trust most to manage the public finances over the next 5 years?

Fine Gael is the party most trusted to manage the economy, but not overwhelmingly so

24%

17%

13%

3%

7%

16%

19%



33. Q Which one of the following parties do you trust least to manage the public finances over the next 5 years?

Over three in ten trust Sinn Féin least to manage public finances

17%

10%

31%

11%

2%

8%

21%



Trust Most x Party Support

Trust Least Fine Gael

Supporters

Fianna Fáil

Supporters

Sinn Fein

Supporters

Labour

Supporters

Independents

Supporters*

(199) (169) (160) (45) (174)

% % % % % %

Fine Gael 2 19 45 19 21

Fianna Fáil 16 * 10 23 18

Sinn Fein 63 49 4 42 24

Labour 8 16 21 - 15

Somebody else 1 2 2 - 5

None of them 2 1 4 3 8

Don’t know 7 11 14 14 10

34.

Fine Gael

Supporters

Fianna Fáil

Supporters

Sinn Fein

Supporters

Labour

Supporters

Independents

Supporters*

(199) (169) (160) (45) (174)

The next Government

should focus most on… % % % % % %

Improving public services 41 42 33 35 44

Tax cuts 22 20 34 25 25

Boosting social benefits 11 24 22 18 21

Reducing the national debt 21 10 9 22 8

It depends 2 1 1 - 1

Don’t know 2 3 1 - *

Q Which of the following objectives do you think the next Government should place most importance on? And

what is second most important objective? And which is the third most important?

Nearly two in five feel the priority for the next Government should be to improve public services

39%

25%

19%

12%

2%

3%



35.

The next Government should

focus on…

Improving public services

Tax cuts

Boosting Social Benefits

Reducing the national debt

It depends

Don’t know

Q Which of the following objectives do you think the next Government should place most importance on? And

what is second most important objective? And which is the third most important?

Overall Objectives for the next Government – Improving Public services remains sacrosanct. The national debt is deemed of lesser importance


39%

25%

19%

12%

2%

3%

29%

20%

25%

23%

1%

2%

19%

26%

23%

23%

4%

5%

Any Mention

83

68

64

55

6

10

Most Important

2nd Most Important

3rd Most Important

36.

16

48

33

3

Q. Taking everything into consideration would you say you are

personally better off, worse off or in the same situation as

you were THIS TIME LAST YEAR?

Better Off (16)

Same (48)

Worse Off (35)

Net Difference* (-19)

Compared to last year

%

-17

%

23

43

17

17

This time next year? February

2015

Q. This time NEXT YEAR, do you think that you

personally will be better off, worse off or in

the same situation as you are now?

Don’t know (1)

Personal situation: one in six feel they are better off than last year, and nearly one in four feel they will be better off next year

February 2017


() = Nov 2015 Results

Better Off (20)

Same (46)

Worse Off (22)

Net Difference* (-2) +6

Don’t know (12)

*= Better off minus worse off

37. Q. This time next year, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same

situation as you are now?

Historical Picture: Personal Situation Compared To This Time Last Year

17

27 24

27

11

5 6 7 10

4 4 7 6 8 8

12 13 11 16 16 16

49

59 60

46 43

29 34 33 32

27

33 29 31 32

27 31

43

40 39

48 48

34

15 16

27

46

66

59 60 57

68

61 63 64 59

64

57

41

43 40 35 33

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

PreCeltic

Tiger '92

MidCeltic

Tiger '97

Post9/11 '02

Sep '08 Jan '09 Apr '09 Sep '09 Mar '10 Sep '10 Jan '11 Mar '11 Sep '11 Jan '12 Jul'12 Mar '13 Oct '13 Jul '14 Dec '14 July '15 Oct/Nov'15

Feb '16

Net Change

-17 +12 +8 +0 -35 -61 -53 -53 -47 -64 -57 -56 -58 -51 -56 -45 -28 -32 -24 -19 -17

COMPARED TO LAST YEAR

BETTER OFF

SAME

WORSE OFF


38. Q. This time next year, do you think that you personally will be better off, worse off or in the same

situation as you are now?

Historical Picture: Personal Situation This Time Next Year. For the first time since the crash, our financial outlook is in positive territory

36

28 26 22

25 29 29 30

33 29 31

26

32

16 15 18 17 17

11 13 12 10 13

10 11 14

17 18 15

19 20 23

54

62 64 68 68

63 62 59 58

61 58

63

45

38 33 35

44

37

31

39

33 32 34

28 30

36

50

41 44

41 46

43

10

9 8

8 7 7 9 11 9 10 11 11

23

46

52

41

34 40

52

39

50 52 47

59 54

45

27

33 31 29

22 17

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

89 90 91 PreCelticTiger'92

93 94 95 96 MidCelticTiger'97

98 00 Post9/11 '02

Sept '08 Jan '09 Apr '09 Set '09 Mar '10 Sept '10 Jan '11 Mar '11 Sept '11 Jan '12 Jul'12 Dec'12 Mar '13 Oct '13 Dec '13 Jul '14 Dec '14 July '15 Oct/Nov'15

Feb '16

THIS TIME NEXT YEAR?

BETTER OFF

SAME

WORSE OFF

NET DIFFERENCE

+26 +19 +18 +14 +18 +22 +20 +19 +24 +19 +20 +15 +9 -30 -37 -23 -17 -23 -41 -26 -38 -42 -34 -49 -43 -31 -10 -15 -16 -10 -2 +6


39.

For more information, please contact: Paul Moran

[email protected] 086 341 1970

Millbank House | Arkle Road | Sandyford | Dublin 18

t. +353 (1) 297 4500 | www.millwardbrown.com/ie

national opinion poll: january/february 2016 · 2016-02-09 · aug 3rd-12th 2013 aug 17th-27th 2013...

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