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NORTHWEST ECONOMIC RESEARCH CENTERCOLLEGE OF URBAN AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS
PORTLAND STATE UNIVERSITY
Transportation and the Economy
2015 Transportation SeminarWillamette UniversityJanuary 14, 2015Dr. Tom PotiowskyDirector, Northwest Economic Research Center
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TRANSPORT & INVESTMENT
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Source: American Society of Civil EngineersReporthttp://www.asce.org/failure_to_act_economic_studies/
Transport and Infrastructure InvestmentAmerican Society of Civil Engineers Report
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ASCE finds that with an additional investment of $157 billion a year between now and 2020, the U.S. can eliminate this drag on economic growth and protect:
• $3.1 trillion in GDP, almost the equivalent of Germany’s entire GDP
• $1.1 trillion in U.S. trade value, equivalent to Mexico’s GDP
• 3.5 million jobs, more than the jobs created in the U.S. over the previous 22 months
• $2.4 trillion in consumer spending, comparable to Brazil’s GDP
• $3,100 in annual personal disposable income
Transport and Infrastructure InvestmentAmerican Society of Civil Engineers Report
Source: American Society of Civil Engineers Reporthttp://www.asce.org/failure_to_act_economic_studies/
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The Circular Flow of the Economy
Source: http://jfvambrosio.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/circular-flow.jpg
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Oregon Department of Transportation Goal: “To promote the expansion and diversification of Oregon’s economy through the efficient and effective movement of people, goods, services and information in a safe, energy efficient and environmentally sound manner.”
• “Oregon’s transportation system is part of a broader Northwest and West Coast regional, national and international transportation system.”
• “The Portland metropolitan area is the economic hub of the state with a wide diversity of businesses and key transportation facilities, Oregon’s economy is dependent on products and services from all parts of the state.”
A few Important Facts and TrendsFrom Oregon Transportation Plan 2006
Source: Oregon Transportation Plan 2006, Transportation Development Division
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According to ODOT’s Commodity Flow Forecast from 2009:•Truck flows dominate with shares of roughly 72-78%•All flows remain relatively stable•Air remains less than .1% in tonnage, but 6-11% of flows in terms of value•It should also be noted that Air freighting moves high-value products (such as pharmaceuticals and legal documents)
Source: Exhibit 2, Commodity Flow Forecast, ODOT 2009
Oregon Commodity Flow Forecast
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Source: Exhibit 4, Commodity Flow Forecast, ODOT 2009
Oregon Commodity Flow Forecast
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Source: Economic Benefits of Oregon Public Ports
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Port of Portland: global & domestic trading hub
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Forest Products & Outdoor Recreation
Agricultural Products & Outdoor Recreation
Columbia River Ports: agriculture, food/beverage processing, energy, advanced technology
Source: Economic Benefits of Oregon Public Ports
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• Oregon Ports provide the link between producers (i.e., agriculture, forest and seafood products) and manufacturing products (i.e., electronics, food and energy products) with global and domestic markets.
• 1 in 6 jobs in Oregon are port-related.
[Oregon Ports Strategic Plan]
• Jobs related to exports pay 20-40% more than average.
[Brookings Institute, 2010 Value of Jobs study]
• Portland Region ranks 4th in U.S. in export value (as share of Metro output in 2012).
[Brookings Institute, 2013]
Port of Portland, Portland Harbor & Port of Vancouver Economic Benefits
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75,800 total jobs (direct, indirect/induced)
Output of $7.3 billion
Labor income of $3.8 billion
Annual local/state tax payments of $346 million
Annual federal tax payments of $246 million
$1 in port tax generates $6 in added local tax payments
Source: Port of Portland
Port of Portland, Portland Harbor & Port of Vancouver Economic Benefits. Regional analysis (includes Oregon and Washington)
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EMPLOYMENT IN TRANSPORT & OTHER SECTORS
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Oregon Industries Return to Pre-Recession LevelPercent Change in Employment Since Jan 2008 through Nov 2014
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Oregon Industries Yet to Fully RecoverPercent Change in Employment Since Jan 2008 through Nov 2014
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Estimated Employment Transportation, OregonEmployed (January 1990 - Oct 2014)
Source: Oregon Employment Department, Employment and Wages by Industry (QCEW), NERC
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Employment by Industry, OregonEmployed (January 2001 - June 2014)
Source: Oregon Employment Department, Employment and Wages by Industry (QCEW)
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Employment by Industry, OregonAll Employees (January 2001 - June 2014)
Source: Oregon Employment Department, Employment and Wages by Industry (QCEW)
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EXPORTS OREGON
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Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis
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Questions and Discussion