NORTHWEST ECONOMIC RESEARCH CENTERCOLLEGE OF URBAN AND PUBLIC AFFAIRS

PORTLAND STATE UNIVERSITY

Transportation and the Economy   

2015 Transportation SeminarWillamette UniversityJanuary 14, 2015Dr. Tom PotiowskyDirector, Northwest Economic Research Center

TRANSPORT & INVESTMENT

Source: American Society of Civil EngineersReporthttp://www.asce.org/failure_to_act_economic_studies/

Transport and Infrastructure InvestmentAmerican Society of Civil Engineers Report

ASCE finds that with an additional investment of $157 billion a year between now and 2020, the U.S. can eliminate this drag on economic growth and protect:

• $3.1 trillion in GDP, almost the equivalent of Germany’s entire GDP

• $1.1 trillion in U.S. trade value, equivalent to Mexico’s GDP  

• 3.5 million jobs, more than the jobs created in the U.S. over the previous 22 months

• $2.4 trillion in consumer spending, comparable to Brazil’s GDP

• $3,100 in annual personal disposable income

Transport and Infrastructure InvestmentAmerican Society of Civil Engineers Report

Source: American Society of Civil Engineers Reporthttp://www.asce.org/failure_to_act_economic_studies/

The Circular Flow of the Economy

Source: http://jfvambrosio.files.wordpress.com/2013/10/circular-flow.jpg

Oregon Department of Transportation Goal: “To promote the expansion and diversification of Oregon’s economy through the efficient and effective movement of people, goods, services and information in a safe, energy efficient and environmentally sound manner.”

• “Oregon’s transportation system is part of a broader Northwest and West Coast regional, national and international transportation system.”

• “The Portland metropolitan area is the economic hub of the state with a wide diversity of businesses and key transportation facilities, Oregon’s economy is dependent on products and services from all parts of the state.”

A few Important Facts and TrendsFrom Oregon Transportation Plan 2006

Source: Oregon Transportation Plan 2006, Transportation Development Division

According to ODOT’s Commodity Flow Forecast from 2009:•Truck flows dominate with shares of roughly 72-78%•All flows remain relatively stable•Air remains less than .1% in tonnage, but 6-11% of flows in terms of value•It should also be noted that Air freighting moves high-value products (such as pharmaceuticals and legal documents)

Source: Exhibit 2, Commodity Flow Forecast, ODOT 2009

Oregon Commodity Flow Forecast

Source: Exhibit 4, Commodity Flow Forecast, ODOT 2009

Oregon Commodity Flow Forecast

Source: Economic Benefits of Oregon Public Ports

Port of Portland: global & domestic trading hub

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Forest Products & Outdoor Recreation

Agricultural Products & Outdoor Recreation

Columbia River Ports: agriculture, food/beverage processing, energy, advanced technology

Source: Economic Benefits of Oregon Public Ports

• Oregon Ports provide the link between producers (i.e., agriculture, forest and seafood products) and manufacturing products (i.e., electronics, food and energy products) with global and domestic markets.

• 1 in 6 jobs in Oregon are port-related.

[Oregon Ports Strategic Plan]

• Jobs related to exports pay 20-40% more than average.

[Brookings Institute, 2010 Value of Jobs study]

• Portland Region ranks 4th in U.S. in export value (as share of Metro output in 2012).

[Brookings Institute, 2013]

Port of Portland, Portland Harbor & Port of Vancouver Economic Benefits

75,800 total jobs (direct, indirect/induced)

Output of $7.3 billion

Labor income of $3.8 billion

Annual local/state tax payments of $346 million

Annual federal tax payments of $246 million

$1 in port tax generates $6 in added local tax payments

Source: Port of Portland

Port of Portland, Portland Harbor & Port of Vancouver Economic Benefits. Regional analysis (includes Oregon and Washington)

EMPLOYMENT IN TRANSPORT & OTHER SECTORS

Oregon Industries Return to Pre-Recession LevelPercent Change in Employment Since Jan 2008 through Nov 2014

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Oregon Industries Yet to Fully RecoverPercent Change in Employment Since Jan 2008 through Nov 2014

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Estimated Employment Transportation, OregonEmployed (January 1990 - Oct 2014)

Source: Oregon Employment Department, Employment and Wages by Industry (QCEW), NERC

Employment by Industry, OregonEmployed (January 2001 - June 2014)

Source: Oregon Employment Department, Employment and Wages by Industry (QCEW)

Employment by Industry, OregonAll Employees (January 2001 - June 2014)

Source: Oregon Employment Department, Employment and Wages by Industry (QCEW)

EXPORTS OREGON

Source: Oregon Office of Economic Analysis

Questions and Discussion