Download - Nws binghamton briefing2_2013_0612
NWS Binghamton Heavy Rain/Flood Potential
Briefing #2
Issued 400 pm Wednesday 06/12/2013
Jim Brewster Service Hydrologist/Meteorologist
National Weather Service Binghamton, NY
This Briefing applies to the NWS Binghamton Service Area only
- This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Syracuse, Utica, Ithaca, Elmira, Binghamton and Oneonta in NY State.
- This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Towanda, Montrose, Scranton, Wilkes-Barre in PA.
Executive Summary - An unusually strong low pressure system will track from Iowa to across the
Ohio Valley tonight, to off the New Jersey coast by Thursday evening.
- Rain will develop Thursday Morning and last until Thursday night.
- Potential exists for a broad area of 1 to 3 inches northern half of our area to
2 to 4 inches across northeast PA and southeast NY.
- Lake and Reservoir levels could rise 1 to 2 feet. Spill flows on regional
reservoirs will likely increase.
- Flash flood potential will be moderate to high on smaller river tributaries,
streams, urban and flood prone areas.
-The timing of highest potential for flash flooding would be Thursday
morning until the evening.
-The timing of highest potential for river flooding would be Thursday night
through Friday night.
Recent Precipitation
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Binghamton
NWS Binghamton Issued: 6/12/2013
4:00 PM
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Highlights
- Above normal rainfall has
occurred in the last two
weeks across the Finger
Lakes region to the Upper
Susquehanna and Upper
Delaware.
- Below normal rain has
been the case in the
Chemung and Main Stem
Susquehanna.
Current Status of River and Stream Flows
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Binghamton
NWS Binghamton Issued: 6/12/2013
4:00 PM
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Stream flows running well above normal at many gauges for this time of year
Forecast Rainfall through Thursday Night
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Binghamton
NWS Binghamton Issued: 6/12/2013
400 PM
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Rainfall ranging from 1 to 2 inches extending south from the Finger Lakes to the Southern Tier with 2 to 4 inches across northeast PA and the Catskills.
Rainfall Timing: Model Projected Radar
5 am Thu
11 am Thu 2 pm Thu
8 pm Thu
Potential for mainly Minor River Flooding
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Binghamton
NWS Binghamton Issued: 6/12/2013
4:00 PM
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Minor flooding = Orange Dots
Moderate flooding = Red Dots
Major Flooding = Purple Dots
Highest threats will be to the tributaries and reservoirs of the Delaware river basin, plus areas of the Upper Susquehanna.
Plausible Worst Case Scenario (not what we currently expect is likely to happen)
• Widespread 3 to 5 inches of rain.
• Minor flooding expands to most river points with locally moderate river flooding in hardest hit basins.
• Significant lake and reservoir rises of 2-3 feet or more.
• Widespread moderate to severe flash flooding.
• Likelihood of this is small 5-10%.
Potential Impacts
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Binghamton
NWS Binghamton Issued: 6/12/2013
4:00 PM
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- Significant rises of area rivers and lakes likely tomorrow into Friday.
- Minor River Flooding possible at many gauges in the Susquehanna in
NY and the Delaware basin from Thursday night into Friday night.
Headwaters most vulnerable. Slight potential for isolated moderate
flooding.
- Good chance for small stream flash flooding and urban flooding.
- Initial flood planning should be considered in all major basins.
NWS Binghamton-led audio/webinar will be held for the Delaware River Basin counties only
at 11:30 AM Thursday. - Another PDF Briefing will be issued Thursday morning.
Additional decisions for webinar briefings in other areas will be made as the event unfolds.
For continuous updates:
– General Weather Info: http://weather.gov/bgm
– Graphical Forecasts: http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo/sectors/bgm.php#tabs
– River Forecasts: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=bgm
– Probability River Forecasts: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mmefs/