nws binghamton briefing2_2013_0612

NWS Binghamton Heavy Rain/Flood Potential

Briefing #2

Issued 400 pm Wednesday 06/12/2013

Jim Brewster Service Hydrologist/Meteorologist

National Weather Service Binghamton, NY

This Briefing applies to the NWS Binghamton Service Area only

- This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Syracuse, Utica, Ithaca, Elmira, Binghamton and Oneonta in NY State.

- This area includes but is not limited to cities such as Towanda, Montrose, Scranton, Wilkes-Barre in PA.

Executive Summary - An unusually strong low pressure system will track from Iowa to across the

Ohio Valley tonight, to off the New Jersey coast by Thursday evening.

- Rain will develop Thursday Morning and last until Thursday night.

- Potential exists for a broad area of 1 to 3 inches northern half of our area to

2 to 4 inches across northeast PA and southeast NY.

- Lake and Reservoir levels could rise 1 to 2 feet. Spill flows on regional

reservoirs will likely increase.

- Flash flood potential will be moderate to high on smaller river tributaries,

streams, urban and flood prone areas.

-The timing of highest potential for flash flooding would be Thursday

morning until the evening.

-The timing of highest potential for river flooding would be Thursday night

through Friday night.

Recent Precipitation

Search: National Weather Service

Binghamton

NWS Binghamton Issued: 6/12/2013

4:00 PM

Follow Us: @NWS Binghamton

Highlights

- Above normal rainfall has

occurred in the last two

weeks across the Finger

Lakes region to the Upper

Susquehanna and Upper

Delaware.

- Below normal rain has

been the case in the

Chemung and Main Stem

Susquehanna.

Current Status of River and Stream Flows


Binghamton


4:00 PM


Stream flows running well above normal at many gauges for this time of year

Forecast Rainfall through Thursday Night


Binghamton


400 PM


Rainfall ranging from 1 to 2 inches extending south from the Finger Lakes to the Southern Tier with 2 to 4 inches across northeast PA and the Catskills.

Rainfall Timing: Model Projected Radar

5 am Thu

11 am Thu 2 pm Thu

8 pm Thu

Potential for mainly Minor River Flooding


Binghamton


4:00 PM


Minor flooding = Orange Dots

Moderate flooding = Red Dots

Major Flooding = Purple Dots

Highest threats will be to the tributaries and reservoirs of the Delaware river basin, plus areas of the Upper Susquehanna.

Plausible Worst Case Scenario (not what we currently expect is likely to happen)

• Widespread 3 to 5 inches of rain.

• Minor flooding expands to most river points with locally moderate river flooding in hardest hit basins.

• Significant lake and reservoir rises of 2-3 feet or more.

• Widespread moderate to severe flash flooding.

• Likelihood of this is small 5-10%.

Potential Impacts


Binghamton


4:00 PM


- Significant rises of area rivers and lakes likely tomorrow into Friday.

- Minor River Flooding possible at many gauges in the Susquehanna in

NY and the Delaware basin from Thursday night into Friday night.

Headwaters most vulnerable. Slight potential for isolated moderate

flooding.

- Good chance for small stream flash flooding and urban flooding.

- Initial flood planning should be considered in all major basins.

NWS Binghamton-led audio/webinar will be held for the Delaware River Basin counties only

at 11:30 AM Thursday. - Another PDF Briefing will be issued Thursday morning.

Additional decisions for webinar briefings in other areas will be made as the event unfolds.

For continuous updates:

– General Weather Info: http://weather.gov/bgm

– Graphical Forecasts: http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo/sectors/bgm.php#tabs

– River Forecasts: http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=bgm

– Probability River Forecasts: http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mmefs/

http://weather.gov/bgm

http://www.weather.gov/forecasts/wfo/sectors/bgm.php

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=bgm

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mmefs/

nws binghamton briefing2_2013_0612

Technology