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Prospects of a low carbon energy transition
India: A case study
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Poverty
• 1/3rd of people living at less than $ 1.25 a day, live in India
• Planning Commission’s headcount is 354.7 mn• IMR is 44 per 1000 population• Institutional delivery is 40.8% per 1000• 78.9% children are anaemic• Over 40% children are stunted/underweight
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Middle Class
• Global middle class defined as earning between $10 - $50 per day
• Only 5% or 70 million Indians in this class• Only 0.06% rural and 0.23% urban Indians
have incomes of more than $50 per day• The poverty burden is thus 95%!!
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Energy Access
• 32.7% Hh have no access to electricity• 70% Hh rely on traditional biomass for cooking• 65% PHCs are not electrified• 53% govt schools are unelectrified
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46%
25%
17%5%
5% 2%
FIndian Energy Demand (2012): Sectoral Shares
Industry
Cooking
Transport
Lighting and Applicances
Agriculture
Telecom
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31%
25%18%
8%
6%6%
2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0%
India Energy Supply (2012): Sectoral Shares
Domestic Coal
Non-commercial energy
Petroloeum imports
Coal imports
Domestic Natural gas
Domestic Crude oil
LNG imports
Domestic Hydro power
Domestic Lignite
Nuclear power
Renewable Energy
Hydro power imports
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Agriculture Lighting and appliances
Cooking Industry Transport0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Energy Demand Scenarios: Planning Commission (TWh/yr)
2012 (Baseline energy demand)
2047 (Least effort scenario)
2047 (Maximum energy security (heroic effort in demand manage-ment))
2047 (Minimum emissions pathway)
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Natural gas Oil Coal Others (including renewables and
bioenergy)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Energy supply scenarios: Planning Commission (TWh/yr)
2012 (Baseline energy supply)
2047 (Least effort scenario)
2047 (Maximum energy security (heroic effort in demand manage-ment))
2047 (Minimum emissions pathway)
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Coal
Oil
Nat
ural
gas
Nuc
lear
Hydr
o
Sola
r
Win
d
Biom
ass-
base
d po
wer
Was
te-t
o-en
ergy
Geo
ther
mal
Tida
l
Biof
uel f
or tr
ansp
orta
tion0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%53
%
32%
11%
1% 2%
0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
58%
26%
7% 5%
1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
4% 3% 3%
0%
4%
43%
18%
1% 0% 0% 0%
23%
Energy Supply Scenarios (Percentages): WWF-TERI
2011 Baseline
2051 Reference Scenario
2051 Alternate Scenario
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Synopsis of policy measures for Renewables
• National Solar Mission and National Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency
• Renewable purchase obligations coupled with renewable energy certificates
• Generation based incentives and feed-in tariffs• Long term purchase agreements
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Barriers for renewables
• Sub-optimal financial leveraging/lack of public financing
• Grid limitations• Social and environmental tradeoffs for some
technologies• Governance capacity
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Additional policy initiatives needed
• Rationalise tariffs/eliminate energy losses• Rationalise subsidies• Grid strengthening• Initiate policy measures to promote off-grid
electricity access solutions