pathways to low carbon development: impediments and opportunities: india
DESCRIPTION
Presentation made by Raman Mehta at the "Low Carbon Options in South Asia" workshop held in Nepal in August 2014.TRANSCRIPT
Prospects of a low carbon energy transition
India: A case study
Poverty
• 1/3rd of people living at less than $ 1.25 a day, live in India
• Planning Commission’s headcount is 354.7 mn• IMR is 44 per 1000 population• Institutional delivery is 40.8% per 1000• 78.9% children are anaemic• Over 40% children are stunted/underweight
Middle Class
• Global middle class defined as earning between $10 - $50 per day
• Only 5% or 70 million Indians in this class• Only 0.06% rural and 0.23% urban Indians
have incomes of more than $50 per day• The poverty burden is thus 95%!!
Energy Access
• 32.7% Hh have no access to electricity• 70% Hh rely on traditional biomass for cooking• 65% PHCs are not electrified• 53% govt schools are unelectrified
46%
25%
17%5%
5% 2%
FIndian Energy Demand (2012): Sectoral Shares
Industry
Cooking
Transport
Lighting and Applicances
Agriculture
Telecom
31%
25%18%
8%
6%6%
2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 0%
India Energy Supply (2012): Sectoral Shares
Domestic Coal
Non-commercial energy
Petroloeum imports
Coal imports
Domestic Natural gas
Domestic Crude oil
LNG imports
Domestic Hydro power
Domestic Lignite
Nuclear power
Renewable Energy
Hydro power imports
Agriculture Lighting and appliances
Cooking Industry Transport0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
Energy Demand Scenarios: Planning Commission (TWh/yr)
2012 (Baseline energy demand)
2047 (Least effort scenario)
2047 (Maximum energy security (heroic effort in demand manage-ment))
2047 (Minimum emissions pathway)
Natural gas Oil Coal Others (including renewables and
bioenergy)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
Energy supply scenarios: Planning Commission (TWh/yr)
2012 (Baseline energy supply)
2047 (Least effort scenario)
2047 (Maximum energy security (heroic effort in demand manage-ment))
2047 (Minimum emissions pathway)
Coal
Oil
Nat
ural
gas
Nuc
lear
Hydr
o
Sola
r
Win
d
Biom
ass-
base
d po
wer
Was
te-t
o-en
ergy
Geo
ther
mal
Tida
l
Biof
uel f
or tr
ansp
orta
tion0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%53
%
32%
11%
1% 2%
0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
58%
26%
7% 5%
1% 1% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 1%
4% 3% 3%
0%
4%
43%
18%
1% 0% 0% 0%
23%
Energy Supply Scenarios (Percentages): WWF-TERI
2011 Baseline
2051 Reference Scenario
2051 Alternate Scenario
Synopsis of policy measures for Renewables
• National Solar Mission and National Mission on Enhanced Energy Efficiency
• Renewable purchase obligations coupled with renewable energy certificates
• Generation based incentives and feed-in tariffs• Long term purchase agreements
Barriers for renewables
• Sub-optimal financial leveraging/lack of public financing
• Grid limitations• Social and environmental tradeoffs for some
technologies• Governance capacity
Additional policy initiatives needed
• Rationalise tariffs/eliminate energy losses• Rationalise subsidies• Grid strengthening• Initiate policy measures to promote off-grid
electricity access solutions