“Persons who pretend to predict the future shall be considered
disorderly and will be liable to a fine of $300
or 3 months in jail.”
Criminal Code of New York c.1900
Forecasting & Scenario Planning
Insight SIG November 2010
Panel Members
Julian Young RSPB
Jon Kelly Wood for Trees
Kirsty Neal Breakthrough Breast Cancer
Bob FrancisCancer Research UK
Role of Insight Teams
• Grant funding
• Legacies
• Regular giving, membership
• Gift Aid
• Trading
• Major Gifts
• Community Fundraising
• Ad hoc: appeals, gaming etc
Forecasting Techniques
Macro
• Market sizing
• External inputs
Micro
• Statistical Analysis
• Modelling
Statistical Analysis
• Descriptive Statistics
• Time series analysis
• Regression/Correlation
• Breakeven analysis
• Payback and other ROI techniques
Modelling
• Sales force composite
• Delphi/Executive Panels• PAM - probability assessment method
• PERT - programme evaluation and review techniques
Market Sizing
Sales Forecast =
Market Size X Market Share
External Inputs
• Legacies– Legacy Foresight
• TGI
• Economic forecasts
Seminar Questions
First: a couple of hands up questions.
Seminar Questions
Is your team/dept:
A. Responsible for generating forecasts? or
B. Give help to business areas? or
C. Not involved in forecasting?
Seminar Questions Cont Role of Insight Teams
• Grant funding
• Legacies
• Regular giving, membership
• Gift Aid
• Trading
• Major Gifts
• Community Fundraising
• Ad hoc: appeals, gaming etc
Seminar Questions Cont
What’s the difference between a forecast and a budget?
A target?
Are we and our colleagues clear?
Seminar Questions Cont
What do our colleagues expect in terms of accuracy of forecasts? And how do we manage expectations?
What data do we need to be able to forecast accurately?
Seminar Questions Cont
What techniques have you found useful?
How can technology help? Stats, modelling.
Seminar Questions Cont
What can/should the SIG do to further forecasting and modelling?
What are your training needs?