“Persons who pretend to predict the future shall be considered

disorderly and will be liable to a fine of $300

or 3 months in jail.”

Criminal Code of New York c.1900

Forecasting & Scenario Planning

Insight SIG November 2010

Panel Members

Julian Young RSPB

Jon Kelly Wood for Trees

Kirsty Neal Breakthrough Breast Cancer

Bob FrancisCancer Research UK

Role of Insight Teams

• Grant funding

• Legacies

• Regular giving, membership

• Gift Aid

• Trading

• Major Gifts

• Community Fundraising

• Ad hoc: appeals, gaming etc

Forecasting Techniques

Macro

• Market sizing

• External inputs

Micro

• Statistical Analysis

• Modelling

Statistical Analysis

• Descriptive Statistics

• Time series analysis

• Regression/Correlation

• Breakeven analysis

• Payback and other ROI techniques

Modelling

• Sales force composite

• Delphi/Executive Panels• PAM - probability assessment method

• PERT - programme evaluation and review techniques

Market Sizing

Sales Forecast =

Market Size X Market Share

External Inputs

• Legacies– Legacy Foresight

• TGI

• Economic forecasts

Seminar Questions

First: a couple of hands up questions.

Seminar Questions

Is your team/dept:

A. Responsible for generating forecasts? or

B. Give help to business areas? or

C. Not involved in forecasting?

Seminar Questions Cont Role of Insight Teams

• Grant funding

• Legacies

• Regular giving, membership

• Gift Aid

• Trading

• Major Gifts

• Community Fundraising

• Ad hoc: appeals, gaming etc

Seminar Questions Cont

What’s the difference between a forecast and a budget?

A target?

Are we and our colleagues clear?

Seminar Questions Cont

What do our colleagues expect in terms of accuracy of forecasts? And how do we manage expectations?

What data do we need to be able to forecast accurately?

Seminar Questions Cont

What techniques have you found useful?

How can technology help? Stats, modelling.

Seminar Questions Cont

What can/should the SIG do to further forecasting and modelling?

What are your training needs?