Download - Peter Black, Director of One Health Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry
![Page 1: Peter Black, Director of One Health Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051514/54c3713d4a7959a1188b45ab/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
MR PETER BLACK DIRECTOR OF ONE HEALTH
AUSTRALIAN DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE, FISHERIES AND FORESTRY
![Page 2: Peter Black, Director of One Health Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051514/54c3713d4a7959a1188b45ab/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
Food system trade-offs: what do we really want ?
Peter Black BVSc MPVM MSc MACVSc Director, One Health Contact: [email protected]
Global Forum for Innovations in Agriculture
3-5 February, Abu Dhabi, UAE
![Page 3: Peter Black, Director of One Health Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051514/54c3713d4a7959a1188b45ab/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
Inputs
Strategy
Outputs
Analysis
Interpretation
“what might we need to do?”
“what will we do?”
“how will we do it?”
“what’s really happening?”
“what seems to be happening?”
look and see what’s happening
Foresight Copyright © 2000 Joseph Voros
Prospection “what might happen?”
Generic Foresight Process
![Page 4: Peter Black, Director of One Health Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051514/54c3713d4a7959a1188b45ab/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Possible, Probable and Preferred Futures
Probable Futures
Possible Futures
Today Tomorrow
Preferred future
Adapted from
![Page 5: Peter Black, Director of One Health Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051514/54c3713d4a7959a1188b45ab/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (2005)
Context
GFIA 2014
![Page 6: Peter Black, Director of One Health Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051514/54c3713d4a7959a1188b45ab/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
Focus: Consequences of Ecosystem Change for Human Well-being
GFIA 2014
![Page 7: Peter Black, Director of One Health Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051514/54c3713d4a7959a1188b45ab/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Global
National/Landscape
Community
Individual
Group
Regional
Key issues Research variables
Scale issues
Where to focus? It depends!!! Slide draws on work from David Waltner – Toews
GFIA 2014
![Page 8: Peter Black, Director of One Health Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051514/54c3713d4a7959a1188b45ab/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
GFIA 2014
Useful metrics to consider
![Page 9: Peter Black, Director of One Health Australian Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry](https://reader033.vdocument.in/reader033/viewer/2022051514/54c3713d4a7959a1188b45ab/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
GFIA 2014
Source: Robert Gonsalves paintings
The human dimension