Policy Makers Council 2010 Summer Meeting
Grassroots and Political Briefing
Meghan McLaughlin
July 19, 2010
APPA GRASSROOTS
Grassroots Program
…it’s all about...
Building Relationships!
With a Purpose … INFLUENCE
APPA GRASSROOTS
DEFINITION:• An on-going, organized system of
recruiting, educating, and motivating members to use their political power to influence legislation at the local level.
Why Is Grassroots Important?
• Lobbyists
• Position Papers
• PowerPAC
• Media Campaigns
These are all important … however …
Member of Congress Are Motivated By:
• The people who vote for them
• The people who give them money to run campaigns
Types of Grassroots Programs
• Quantitative – get an many voters as you can to be involved
• Qualitative – target a few members who have special relationships with the elected officials
• Third-party Programs – coalitions with other organizations; CFER
• Can do all at once
Other Components of Grassroots
• Attend town hall meetings• Invite elected officials to a local event• Host a fund-raiser (individuals – not the
association)• Participate in PowerPAC
Tips for Meeting with Members of Congress
• Be flexible – you may not get to see the elected official, but staff are very important
• Do multiple visits in multiple settings – don’t talk about the same issue every time (don’t be a pest)
• Offer to serve as a resource person on related issues• Be prepared• Establish a common denominator (begin with
something you agree on)• Be concise, specific, and clear• Be reasonable
Tips for Meeting with Members of Congress (continued)
• Localize the issue-show the importance on a local level (how it effects your community)
• Acknowledge, but don’t denigrate, the opposition• Provide written materials (briefings, not dissertations)-
one pagers are very effective• Close the sale-ask how they stand on the issue or how
they plan to vote• Say “thank you”• Follow up promptly-send letter to follow up on what you
discussed• Report immediately
APPA Grassroots Priorities
For the remainder of 2010, APPA’s priorities will be:• Climate Change• Clean Renewable Energy Bond (CREB)
program• Pole Attachments
CO - BennetDE - KaufmanIL - BurrisNY - Gillibrand
2010 Senate Map
11 Republican Incumbents7 Republican Open Seats4 Democrat Appointed Seats4 Democrat Open Seats10 Democrat Incumbents
MA
WAM urray
ORWyden
CABoxe r
NVRe id
IDCrapo
AZM cCain
WY
NE
OKCoburn
TX
MN WIFe ingol d
INBayh
PASpec ter
MEVTLeahy
RI
NJDE
Kaufman
HIInouye
MI
MT
SDThune
LAVi tte r
GAIs ak son
ARLi nc oln
NCBurr
NM
AKM urk owsk i
ALShel by
SCDeM int
VAWV
MS
TN
IAGras s ley
MDM iku lsk i
CTDodd
FL - LeM ieuxKS - BrownbackM O - BondNH - GreggOH - Vo inov i chKY - Bunn ingUT - Bennett
NDDorgan
Momentum is Building
“A key to winning elections for the Democratic
and Republican Parties is to appeal to
Independent voters. Thus far in the 2010
election campaign, Republicans have attracted
greater support from independents than have
Democrats.”(Jeffrey Jones, “Independent Voters Favor GOP in 2010 Election Tracking” 7/1/2010)
“The results show "a really ugly mood and an unhappy electorate," said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the Journal/NBC poll with GOP pollster Bill McInturff. "The voters, I think, are just looking for change, and that means bad news for incumbents and in particular for theDemocrats.”( Peter Wallsten and Eliza Gray, “Confidence Waning in Obama, U.S. Outlook” 6/23/2010)
GOP Ind Dem GOP Ind Dem
92%
51%
15%
89%
50%
6%3%
34%
76%
7%
29%
88%
Republican Candidate Democratic Candidate
Congressional Ballot by Party
+82% +21% -82%
The Republican candidate has a strong lead with Inds in both GOP and Dem districts.
+89% +17% -61%
Republican Districts Democratic Districts
GOP Open Seats
Filing Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: August 24, 2010
Cook &Rothenberg
TOSS-UP
Florida Martinez Seat (Open)
7/12/2010
2009 Total Raised 1st Quarter COH
Crist (I) $8,999,140 $1,156,906 $7,631,858
Meek (D)* $4,968,786 $1,000,000 $4,000,000
Rubio (R)* $3,377,857 $4,500,000 $3,906,094
“He (Rubio) is a charismatic candidate who has proven his ability to effectively articulate the Republican message. National Republicans also remain confident that Rubio is a strong candidate with unique appeal in the state.”(“Chris Cillizza in "The Fix" in The Washington Post , 7/1/10)
PPP
3/8/10
R2000
3/17/10
RR
3/18/10
Q Poll
4/13/10
RR
4/21/10
MA 4/25/10
POS 4/27/10
RR
5/3/10
M-D 5/5/10
RR 5/16/10
Q Poll 6/8/10
RR 7/6/10
05
1015202530354045
25 2725 24
22
15
2317 19 18
17 15
34 32
42
3037
29 28
34 32
3933
36
27 29
22
32 3033
36 38 38
31
3734
Rubio / Crist / Meek Hypothetical Ballot
Meek Rubio Crist
Cook & Rothenberg
TOSS-UP
KentuckyFiling Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: CLOSED
Bunning Seat (Open)
2009 Total Raised Pre-Primary COH
Paul (R)* $1,774,651 $1,100,000 $169,401
Conway (D) $2,336,399 $114,397 $675,805
RR 1/6/10
RR 3/2/10
R2000 3/17/10
RR 3/31/10
RR 4/28/10
PPP 5/2/10
R 2000 5/12/10
RR 5/19/10
R 2000 5/26/10
RR 6/1/10
PPP 6/30/10
RR 6/30/10
10
20
30
40
50
60
4649
4550 47 41
42
59
44 4943
49
3834
39 36 38 40 3934
41 4143
Paul / Conway Hypothetical Ballot
Paul
Conway
“Republican U.S. Senate nominee Rand Paul received $1.1 million in contributions during the last three months” (“Campaign says Rand Paul raised $1.1 million in 2nd Quarter,” Lexington Herald-Leader, 7/2/10 )
Bond Seat (Open)MissouriFiling Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: August 3, 2010
RR 1/21/10
RR 2/11/10
RR 3/9/10
PPP 3/28/10
RR 4/6/10
RR 5/3/10
RR 6/28/10
010203040506070
49 49 47 45 48 50 4843 42 41 41 42 42 43
Blunt / Carnahan Hypothetical Ballot
BluntCarnahan
Cook & Rothenberg
TOSS-UP
5/27/2010
2009 Total Raised 1st Quarter COH
Blunt (R) $4,643,873 $1,315,572 $3,426,552
Carnahan (D) $4,029,463 $1,490,220 $2,844,521
“In a race almost certain to attract widespread national attention later this year, Republican Rep. Roy Blunt continues to lead Democrat Robin Carnahan in the Missouri Senate contest, according to the latest Rasmussen poll.” (“U.S. Senate Election 2010: Roy Blunt Leading Robin Carnahan by 6 Points,” Riverfront Times, 4/9/10)
Filing Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: September 14, 2010
RR 1/12/10
UNH 2/3/10
RR 2/10/10
RR 3/8/10
RR 4/7/10
PPP 4/18/10
UNH 4/21/10
RR 5/11/10
RR 5/11/10
10
20
30
40
50
6049
4146 47
50 47
4750 50
40
33
39 37 3540
32 3838
Ayotte / Hodes Hypothetical Ballot
AyotteHodes
Cook TOSS-UP
RothenbergLEAN R
Gregg Seat (Open)New Hampshire
5/27/2010
2009 Total Raised 1st Quarter COH
Hodes (D)* $2,322,697 $725,000 $1,669,414Bender (R) $ 602,074 $562,499 $1,030,205Binnie (R)* $1,581,353 $550,000 $1,100,000Lamontagne (R) $181,093 $331,687 $227,371Ayotte (R)* $1,243,831 $720,000 $1,284,962
Filing Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: CLOSED
RR 1/12/10
RR 2/6/10
Q Poll 2/21/10
PPP 3/21/10
RR 3/30/10
R2000 4/7/10
Q Poll 4/26/10
RR 5/5/10
UC 5/20/10
Q Poll 6/27/10
RR 6/29/10
15
25
35
45
3739
37 36
38
4340 43
4742
39
44 4340
4143
39 3742
46
40
43
Portman/Fisher Hypothetical Ballot
FisherPortman
Cook & Rothenberg
TOSS-UP
Voinovich Seat (Open)Ohio
5/27/2010
2009 Total Raised Pre-Primary COH
Portman (R) * $7,654,320 $2,650,000 $8,800,000
Fisher (D) $3,349,619 $52,597 $906,738
“And today Portman announced that he raised $2.65 million in the second quarter and has $8.8 million in the bank for the final four months of the race.” (“The Downside of Primaries: Buckeye Edition” Politico, 7/8/10)
Republican Clear Advantage
Filing Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: CLOSED
Cook TOSS-UP
RothenbergLEAN R
LincolnArkansas
PPP 1/31/10
RR 2/1/10
RR 3/1/10
R2000 3/24/10
R2000 4/14/10
RR 4/26/10
R2000 4/28/10
M-D 5/5/10
R 2000 5/12/10
RR 5/19/10
R 2000 5/26/10
RR 6/15/10
0
20
40
60
80
56 54 48 49 50 5752 5254
66 5861
33 35 3942
43
29
423540
2838
32
BoozmanLincoln
Lincoln / Boozman Hypothetical Ballot
2009 Total Raised Pre-Primary COH
Lincoln (D) $5,515,076 $573,290 $2,055,803
Boozman (R) $243,133 $146,661 $362,211
5/26/2010
“Republican John Boozman now holds a near two-to-one lead over Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas’ U.S. Senate race, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports survey of Likely Voters in the state.” (“Election 2010: Arkansas Senate,” Rasmussen Reports, 06/17/10)
Kaufman (Special)DelawareFiling Deadline: July 29, 2010; Primary Date: Sept. 14, 2010
CookLIKELY R
RothenbergLEAN R
4/30/2010
2009 Total Raised 1st Quarter COH
Castle (R) $2,163,900 $826,900 $2,314,966
Coons (D) N/A $650,889 $591,272
RR 1/25/10
RR 2/22/10
R 2000 2/24/10
RR 4/29/10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
56 53 53 55
27
3235
32
Castle/Coons Hypothetical Ballot
Castle
“Republicans thus far couldn't have scripted any better their campaign to secure the seat that was long held by Vice President Joseph Biden and now held on an interim basis by Kaufman. The widespread popularity of Rep. Mike Castle (R), the party's strongest possible candidate, has enabled him to maintain a large lead in public polls since January.” (Greg Giroux, “Mid-Atlantic: Big Pennsylvania, New York Wins Could Push GOP to Majority,” Roll Call, 05/17/10)
IndianaFiling Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: CLOSED
BayhCook
LEAN RRothenberg
TILT R
7/27/2010
2009 Total Raised Pre-Primary COH
Coats (R) N/A $105,987 $291,737
Ellsworth (D) $464,677 $71,518 $962,283
RR
2/17/10
R2000
2/24/10
RR
3/18/10
RR
4/14/10
SUSA 4/26/10
RR 5/6/10
RR 6/3/10
RR 7/8/10
10
20
30
40
50
60
3236 34
33 3136 33 30
4637
4954
4751
4751
Coats/EllsworthHypothetical Ballot
Ellsworth Coats
Filing Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: CLOSED
0102030405060708090
100
71
68 6972
73
1725 24 23 19
Hoeven/Potter Hypothetical Ballot
CookSOLID R
RothenbergSAFE R
North Dakota Dorgan (Open)
4/27/2010
2009 Total Raised Pre-Primary COH
Hoeven (R) N/A $572,194 $1,526,936
Potter (D) N/A $24,924 $36,785
“It’s the same old story in the race for U.S. Senate in North Dakota, with current Governor John Hoeven still earning support from nearly three-out-of-four voters in the state. A new Rasmussen Reports statewide survey of Likely Voters shows Hoeven earning 73% of the vote to his Democratic challenger Tracy Potter’s 19%. Also, eighty-eight percent (88%) of voters in the state approve of the job Hoeven is doing as governor.” (“Election 2010: North Dakota Senate,” Rasmussen Reports, 06/22/10)
Toss Up Races
Bennet Colorado Filing Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: August 10, 2010
RR 9/15/09
RR 12/8/09
RR 1/13/10
RR 2/2/10
PPP 3/8/10
RR 4/5/10
RR 5/3/10
PPP 5/16/10
SUSA
6/17/10
RR 7/8/1010
20
30
40
50
60
3637 37 37
41 41 44 4440
4546
49 51
4346 48
41
47 47
Bennet / NortonHypothetical Ballot
Norton
Cook & Rothenberg
TOSS-UP
7/12/2010
2009 Total Raised 1st Quarter COH
Bennet (D) $4,824,998 $1,405,178 $3,570,299
Norton (R) * $1,060,384 $900,000 $600,000
Buck (R) $537,314 $218,791 $416,643
Romanoff (D) $629,908 $385,647 $501,959
“The Norton campaign reported on Wednesday that she raised more than $900,000 in the three-month period ending June 30. “This is our best fundraising quarter yet,” she said. “The momentum is on her side. Our support is growing.” (Nate Miller, “Dollars pour into Norton, Buck campaigns for Senate.” Greeley Tribune. 7/09/10)
RR 9/9
/09
RR 12/8
/09
R 2000 1
/13/1
0
RR 1/1
3/10
RR 2/2
/10
RR 3/2
/10
PPP 3/8
/10
RR 4/5
/10
RR 5/3
/10
PPP 5/1
6/10
RR 6/7
/10
SUSA 6/1
7/10
RR 7/8
/10
10
20
30
40
50
60
43 38 41
38
41
38
46
40
41
45
414339
37
4238
43
4544
4044 48
39
46 46 48
Bennet/ Buck Hypothetical Ballot
Buck
??BurrisIllinois
Filing Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: CLOSED
PPP 4/26/09
RR 8/11/09
MMS 10/9/09
RR 10/14/09
GQR 10/28/09
RR 12/9/09
PPP 1/25/10
RR 2/3/10
RR 3/8/10
RR 4/5/10
RR 4/28/10
R 2000 5/5/10
Q Poll 6/13/10
RR 7/7/10
10
20
30
40
50
35 38 35
41 4642 42
4044
3738 38
3140
41 42
41 43 39 34
46
4141
46 41
3039
Giannoulias/Kirk Hypothetical Ballot
GiannouliasKirk
Cook TOSS-UP
RothenbergTILT R
7/12/2010
2009 Total Raised 1st Quarter COH
Giannoulias (D) $3,576,259 $1,206,467 $1,221,629
Kirk (R)* $4,784,638 $2,300,000 $3,900,000
?ReidNevada
Filing Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: CLOSED
20
40
60
41
3941
43
44
5048 46
Reid/Angle Match-up
Reid Angle
CookTOSS-UP
RothenbergTILT R
7/12/2010
2009 Total Raised Pre-Primary COH
Reid (D) $9,556,523 $1,106,706 $9,134,242
Angle (R) $584,909 $298,554 $138,609
“None” Voter Avg2008 = .65% (Obama at .65%)2006 = 4.1% (Controller at 5.6%)2004 = 1.0% (Sen Reid at 1.6%)2002 = 4.9% (Treasurer at 6%)2000 = 1.2% (Sen Ensign at 1.9%)
Filing Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: CLOSED
Cook & Rothenberg
TOSS-UP
SpecterPennsylvania
7/12/2010
2009 Total Raised Pre-Primary COH
Sestak (D) $1,359,827 $132,249 $2,918,668
Toomey (R) $4,868,992 $1,045,903 $4,650,554
RR 1/18/10
F&MC 1/24/10
RR 2/8/10
F&MC 2/21/10
Q Poll 2/28/10
R 2000 3/10/10
RR 3/15/10
F&MC 3/21/10
BR 3/31/10
PPP 4/1/10
Q Poll 4/5/10
MC 4/7/10
RR 4/12/10
RR 5/6/10
FMC 5/9/10
Q Poll 5/11/10
RR 5/12/10
RR 5/19/10
R 2000 5/26/10
RR 6/29/10
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
35
19
35
20
36
39
37
19
3436
34
22
3640
28
40 40
4643
39
4341
43
38 39 4242
27
42 42 42
33
47
42
29
4245
4240
45Toomey / Sestak Hypothetical Ballot
SestakToomey
“Former Rep. Pat Toomey won the Republican nomination and will run against Sestak in the fall in what is likely to be one of the marquee races in the battle for control of the Senate.”(“Primary Results Will Have National Significance,” Dave Espo, AP, 5/18/2010)
Democrat Clear Advantage
BoxerCaliforniaFiling Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: CLOSED
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
46
5048
4649
44 42
45 48 48 4548 45 47 45
43
35
40 39 40
4338 38 39
39
4243 41
44
47
Boxer / Fiorina Hypothetical Ballot
BoxerFiorina
CookLEAN D
RothenbergLEAN D
4/27/2010
2009 Total Raised Pre-Primary COH
Boxer (D) $5,880,591 $2,469,967 $9,676,293
Fiorina (R) $3,584,133 $2,029,699 $620,460
“With much of the energy and enthusiasm of that campaign now dispersed by a staggering economy, a bitter national smack down on health care reform, and concerns about a skyrocketing national deficit, Boxer knows she's no longer the shoe-in she appeared to be a few months ago.” (“Sen. Boxer Acknowledges Tough Re-Election Battle,” CBS 2/KCAL 9, 4/1/10)
Filing Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: August 10, 2010
PPP 1/5/10
Q Poll 1/12/1
0
RR 2/1/10
Q Poll 3/15/1
0
RR 4/7/10
RR 5/3/10
RR 5/18/1
0
Q Poll 5/24/1
0
R 2000 5/26/1
0
Q Poll 6/8/10
010203040506070
60 64
5661
55 52 4856
5255
28 23
36
2835 39 45
31 3335
Blumenthal/ McMahon Hypothetical Ballot
Blumenthal McMahon
CookLEAN D
RothenbergDEM FAVORED
Connecticut Dodd (Open)
7/12/2010
2009 Total Raised 1st Quarter COH
Blumenthal (D) N/A $1,880,041 $1,601,814
Schiff (R) $1,485,920 $1,063,309 $1,228,710
McMahon (R) $6,537,661 $8,037,572 $4,302,202
Washington
RR 2/11/10
RR 3/9/10
R2000 3/24/10
RR 4/6/10
SUSA 4/22/10
RR
5/4/10
UW 5/23/10
RR 5/26/10
RR 6/22/10
10
20
30
40
50
60
46 46
52 48
42
4844
4847
48 49
4146
52
46
40
4747
Murray / Rossi Hypothetical Ballot
MurrayRossi
Murray
2009 Total Raised 1st Quarter COH Murray (D) $4,393,302 $1,078,006 $5,916,996Didier (R) $89,011 $262,508 $151,073Akers (R) N/A $276,324 $89,970
Filling Deadline: CLOSED Primary Date: August 17, 2010
Cook TOSS-UP
RothenbergLEAN D
“Republicans scored a late but important recruiting success yesterday when businessman and former state Sen. Dino Rossi announced that he would challenge Democratic incumbent Sen. Patty Murray. Rossi’s announcement puts another Democratic-held seat in play.” (“Washington Senate: Murray Gets a First Tier Challenger,” Cook Political Report, 5/27/10)
??FeingoldWisconsin
Filing Deadline: July 13, 2010; Primary Date: September 14, 2010
Feingold /Westlake Hypothetical Ballot
RR 4/20/10 RR 5/25/10 RR 6/21/10 PPP 6/27/1010
20
30
40
50
6049 47 47 45
3838 41 38
FeingoldWestlake
RR 5/25/10
RRR 6/21/10
PPP 6/27/10
102030405060
46 46 4544
4543
Feingold / Johnson Hypothetical Ballot
FeingoldJohnson
2009 Total Raised 1st Quarter COH Feingold (D) $3,049,467 $1,344,408 $4,264,103Westlake (R) $33,319 $13,719 $2,226Johnson (R) N/A N/A N/A
CookSOLID D
RothenbergDEM FAVORED
Republican Incumbent Seats
CookLIKELY R
RothenbergGOP FAV
7/12/2010
2009 Total Raised 1st Quarter COH
Burr (R) * $4,290,222 $1,900,000 $6,300,000
Marshall (D) $304,864 $163,449 $180,891
CookLIKELY R
RothenbergGOP FAV
2009 Total Raised 1st Quarter COH
Vitter (R)* $4,455,511 $1,000,000 $5,500,000
Melancon (D) $1,962,860 $543,454 $2,262,373
CookSOLID R
RothenbergSAFE
2009 Total Raised 1st Quarter COH
Grassley (R) $2,873,425 $628,965 $5,366,174
Conlin (D) $609,581 $928,355 $1,000,456
2010 GOP Seats: Latest PollingFloridaRR 7/6/1036 Rubio (R)34 Crist (I)15 Meek (D)14 Undecided
IowaRR 6/14/1054 Grassley37 Conlin8 Undecided
KentuckyRR 6/28/1049 Paul42 Conway6 Undecided
MissouriRR 6/28/1048 Blunt43
Carnahan
6 Undecided
North Carolina
RR 7/6/1052 Burr37 Marshall7 Undecided
GOP Leading: 8-0
OhioRR 6/29/1043 Portman39 Fisher13 Undecided
New HampshireRR 5/11/1050 Ayotte38 Hodes9 Undecided
LouisianaRR 6/24/1053 Vitter35 Melancon9 Undecided
Last Updated 7/12/10
2010 Dem Seats: Latest PollingArkansasRR 6/15/10
61 Boozman
32 Lincoln
3 Undecided
ConnecticutQ Poll 6/8/10
55 Blumenthal
35 McMahon
8 Undecided
NevadaRR 7/12/10
46 Angle
43 Reid
5 Undecided
DelawareRR 4/29/10
55 Castle
32 Coons
7 Undecided
North Dakota
RR 6/16/10
73 Hoeven
19 Potter
6 Undecided
IndianaRR 7/8/10
51 Coats
30 Ellsworth
6 Undecided
CaliforniaSUSA 7/11/10
45 Boxer
47 Fiorina
9 Undecided
PennsylvaniaRR 6/29/10
45 Toomey
39 Sestak
11 Undecided
Washington
RR 6/22/1047 Rossi47 Murray3 Undecided
Last Updated 7/12/10
WisconsinPPP 6/27/10
45 Feingold
43 Johnson
12 Undecided
IllinoisRR 7/7/10
40 Giannoulias
39 Kirk
12 Undecided
ColoradoRR 7/8/10
47 Norton
40 Bennet
7 Undecided