Policy Makers Council 2010 Summer Meeting

Grassroots and Political Briefing

Meghan McLaughlin

July 19, 2010

APPA GRASSROOTS

Grassroots Program

…it’s all about...

Building Relationships!

With a Purpose … INFLUENCE

APPA GRASSROOTS

DEFINITION:• An on-going, organized system of

recruiting, educating, and motivating members to use their political power to influence legislation at the local level.

Why Is Grassroots Important?

• Lobbyists

• Position Papers

• PowerPAC

• Media Campaigns

These are all important … however …

Member of Congress Are Motivated By:

• The people who vote for them

• The people who give them money to run campaigns

Types of Grassroots Programs

• Quantitative – get an many voters as you can to be involved

• Qualitative – target a few members who have special relationships with the elected officials

• Third-party Programs – coalitions with other organizations; CFER

• Can do all at once

Other Components of Grassroots

• Attend town hall meetings• Invite elected officials to a local event• Host a fund-raiser (individuals – not the

association)• Participate in PowerPAC

Tips for Meeting with Members of Congress

• Be flexible – you may not get to see the elected official, but staff are very important

• Do multiple visits in multiple settings – don’t talk about the same issue every time (don’t be a pest)

• Offer to serve as a resource person on related issues• Be prepared• Establish a common denominator (begin with

something you agree on)• Be concise, specific, and clear• Be reasonable

Tips for Meeting with Members of Congress (continued)

• Localize the issue-show the importance on a local level (how it effects your community)

• Acknowledge, but don’t denigrate, the opposition• Provide written materials (briefings, not dissertations)-

one pagers are very effective• Close the sale-ask how they stand on the issue or how

they plan to vote• Say “thank you”• Follow up promptly-send letter to follow up on what you

discussed• Report immediately

APPA Grassroots Priorities

For the remainder of 2010, APPA’s priorities will be:• Climate Change• Clean Renewable Energy Bond (CREB)

program• Pole Attachments

CO - BennetDE - KaufmanIL - BurrisNY - Gillibrand

2010 Senate Map

11 Republican Incumbents7 Republican Open Seats4 Democrat Appointed Seats4 Democrat Open Seats10 Democrat Incumbents

MA

WAM urray

ORWyden

CABoxe r

NVRe id

IDCrapo

AZM cCain

WY

NE

OKCoburn

TX

MN WIFe ingol d

INBayh

PASpec ter

MEVTLeahy

RI

NJDE

Kaufman

HIInouye

MI

MT

SDThune

LAVi tte r

GAIs ak son

ARLi nc oln

NCBurr

NM

AKM urk owsk i

ALShel by

SCDeM int

VAWV

MS

TN

IAGras s ley

MDM iku lsk i

CTDodd

FL - LeM ieuxKS - BrownbackM O - BondNH - GreggOH - Vo inov i chKY - Bunn ingUT - Bennett

NDDorgan

Momentum is Building

“A key to winning elections for the Democratic

and Republican Parties is to appeal to

Independent voters. Thus far in the 2010

election campaign, Republicans have attracted

greater support from independents than have

Democrats.”(Jeffrey Jones, “Independent Voters Favor GOP in 2010 Election Tracking” 7/1/2010)

“The results show "a really ugly mood and an unhappy electorate," said Democratic pollster Peter Hart, who conducts the Journal/NBC poll with GOP pollster Bill McInturff. "The voters, I think, are just looking for change, and that means bad news for incumbents and in particular for theDemocrats.”( Peter Wallsten and Eliza Gray, “Confidence Waning in Obama, U.S. Outlook” 6/23/2010)

GOP Ind Dem GOP Ind Dem

92%

51%

15%

89%

50%

6%3%

34%

76%

7%

29%

88%

Republican Candidate Democratic Candidate

Congressional Ballot by Party

+82% +21% -82%

The Republican candidate has a strong lead with Inds in both GOP and Dem districts.

+89% +17% -61%

Republican Districts Democratic Districts

GOP Open Seats

Filing Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: August 24, 2010

Cook &Rothenberg

TOSS-UP

Florida Martinez Seat (Open)

7/12/2010

2009 Total Raised 1st Quarter COH

Crist (I) $8,999,140 $1,156,906 $7,631,858

Meek (D)* $4,968,786 $1,000,000 $4,000,000

Rubio (R)* $3,377,857 $4,500,000 $3,906,094

“He (Rubio) is a charismatic candidate who has proven his ability to effectively articulate the Republican message. National Republicans also remain confident that Rubio is a strong candidate with unique appeal in the state.”(“Chris Cillizza in "The Fix" in The Washington Post , 7/1/10)

PPP

3/8/10

R2000

3/17/10

RR

3/18/10

Q Poll

4/13/10

RR

4/21/10

MA 4/25/10

POS 4/27/10

RR

5/3/10

M-D 5/5/10

RR 5/16/10

Q Poll 6/8/10

RR 7/6/10

05

1015202530354045

25 2725 24

22

15

2317 19 18

17 15

34 32

42

3037

29 28

34 32

3933

36

27 29

22

32 3033

36 38 38

31

3734

Rubio / Crist / Meek Hypothetical Ballot

Meek Rubio Crist

Cook & Rothenberg

TOSS-UP

KentuckyFiling Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: CLOSED

Bunning Seat (Open)

2009 Total Raised Pre-Primary COH

Paul (R)* $1,774,651 $1,100,000 $169,401

Conway (D) $2,336,399 $114,397 $675,805

RR 1/6/10

RR 3/2/10

R2000 3/17/10

RR 3/31/10

RR 4/28/10

PPP 5/2/10

R 2000 5/12/10

RR 5/19/10

R 2000 5/26/10

RR 6/1/10

PPP 6/30/10

RR 6/30/10

10

20

30

40

50

60

4649

4550 47 41

42

59

44 4943

49

3834

39 36 38 40 3934

41 4143

Paul / Conway Hypothetical Ballot

Paul

Conway

“Republican U.S. Senate nominee Rand Paul received $1.1 million in contributions during the last three months” (“Campaign says Rand Paul raised $1.1 million in 2nd Quarter,” Lexington Herald-Leader, 7/2/10 )

Bond Seat (Open)MissouriFiling Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: August 3, 2010

RR 1/21/10

RR 2/11/10

RR 3/9/10

PPP 3/28/10

RR 4/6/10

RR 5/3/10

RR 6/28/10

010203040506070

49 49 47 45 48 50 4843 42 41 41 42 42 43

Blunt / Carnahan Hypothetical Ballot

BluntCarnahan

Cook & Rothenberg

TOSS-UP

5/27/2010

2009 Total Raised 1st Quarter COH

Blunt (R) $4,643,873 $1,315,572 $3,426,552

Carnahan (D) $4,029,463 $1,490,220 $2,844,521

“In a race almost certain to attract widespread national attention later this year, Republican Rep. Roy Blunt continues to lead Democrat Robin Carnahan in the Missouri Senate contest, according to the latest Rasmussen poll.” (“U.S. Senate Election 2010: Roy Blunt Leading Robin Carnahan by 6 Points,” Riverfront Times,  4/9/10)

Filing Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: September 14, 2010

RR 1/12/10

UNH 2/3/10

RR 2/10/10

RR 3/8/10

RR 4/7/10

PPP 4/18/10

UNH 4/21/10

RR 5/11/10

RR 5/11/10

10

20

30

40

50

6049

4146 47

50 47

4750 50

40

33

39 37 3540

32 3838

Ayotte / Hodes Hypothetical Ballot

AyotteHodes

Cook TOSS-UP

RothenbergLEAN R

Gregg Seat (Open)New Hampshire

5/27/2010

2009 Total Raised 1st Quarter COH

Hodes (D)* $2,322,697 $725,000 $1,669,414Bender (R) $ 602,074 $562,499 $1,030,205Binnie (R)* $1,581,353 $550,000 $1,100,000Lamontagne (R) $181,093 $331,687 $227,371Ayotte (R)* $1,243,831 $720,000 $1,284,962

Filing Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: CLOSED

RR 1/12/10

RR 2/6/10

Q Poll 2/21/10

PPP 3/21/10

RR 3/30/10

R2000 4/7/10

Q Poll 4/26/10

RR 5/5/10

UC 5/20/10

Q Poll 6/27/10

RR 6/29/10

15

25

35

45

3739

37 36

38

4340 43

4742

39

44 4340

4143

39 3742

46

40

43

Portman/Fisher Hypothetical Ballot

FisherPortman

Cook & Rothenberg

TOSS-UP

Voinovich Seat (Open)Ohio

5/27/2010

2009 Total Raised Pre-Primary COH

Portman (R) * $7,654,320 $2,650,000 $8,800,000

Fisher (D) $3,349,619 $52,597 $906,738

“And today Portman announced that he raised $2.65 million in the second quarter and has $8.8 million in the bank for the final four months of the race.” (“The Downside of Primaries: Buckeye Edition” Politico, 7/8/10)

Republican Clear Advantage

Filing Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: CLOSED

Cook TOSS-UP

RothenbergLEAN R

LincolnArkansas

PPP 1/31/10

RR 2/1/10

RR 3/1/10

R2000 3/24/10

R2000 4/14/10

RR 4/26/10

R2000 4/28/10

M-D 5/5/10

R 2000 5/12/10

RR 5/19/10

R 2000 5/26/10

RR 6/15/10

0

20

40

60

80

56 54 48 49 50 5752 5254

66 5861

33 35 3942

43

29

423540

2838

32

BoozmanLincoln

Lincoln / Boozman Hypothetical Ballot

2009 Total Raised Pre-Primary COH

Lincoln (D) $5,515,076 $573,290 $2,055,803

Boozman (R) $243,133 $146,661 $362,211

5/26/2010

“Republican John Boozman now holds a near two-to-one lead over Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln in Arkansas’ U.S. Senate race, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports survey of Likely Voters in the state.” (“Election 2010: Arkansas Senate,” Rasmussen Reports, 06/17/10)

Kaufman (Special)DelawareFiling Deadline: July 29, 2010; Primary Date: Sept. 14, 2010

CookLIKELY R

RothenbergLEAN R

4/30/2010

2009 Total Raised 1st Quarter COH

Castle (R) $2,163,900 $826,900 $2,314,966

Coons (D) N/A $650,889 $591,272

RR 1/25/10

RR 2/22/10

R 2000 2/24/10

RR 4/29/10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

56 53 53 55

27

3235

32

Castle/Coons Hypothetical Ballot

Castle

“Republicans thus far couldn't have scripted any better their campaign to secure the seat that was long held by Vice President Joseph Biden and now held on an interim basis by Kaufman. The widespread popularity of Rep. Mike Castle (R), the party's strongest possible candidate, has enabled him to maintain a large lead in public polls since January.” (Greg Giroux, “Mid-Atlantic: Big Pennsylvania, New York Wins Could Push GOP to Majority,” Roll Call, 05/17/10)

IndianaFiling Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: CLOSED

BayhCook

LEAN RRothenberg

TILT R

7/27/2010

2009 Total Raised Pre-Primary COH

Coats (R) N/A $105,987 $291,737

Ellsworth (D) $464,677 $71,518 $962,283

RR

2/17/10

R2000

2/24/10

RR

3/18/10

RR

4/14/10

SUSA 4/26/10

RR 5/6/10

RR 6/3/10

RR 7/8/10

10

20

30

40

50

60

3236 34

33 3136 33 30

4637

4954

4751

4751

Coats/EllsworthHypothetical Ballot

Ellsworth Coats

Filing Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: CLOSED

0102030405060708090

100

71

68 6972

73

1725 24 23 19

Hoeven/Potter Hypothetical Ballot

CookSOLID R

RothenbergSAFE R

North Dakota Dorgan (Open)

4/27/2010

2009 Total Raised Pre-Primary COH

Hoeven (R) N/A $572,194 $1,526,936

Potter (D) N/A $24,924 $36,785

“It’s the same old story in the race for U.S. Senate in North Dakota, with current Governor John Hoeven still earning support from nearly three-out-of-four voters in the state.  A new Rasmussen Reports statewide survey of Likely Voters shows Hoeven earning 73% of the vote to his Democratic challenger Tracy Potter’s 19%. Also, eighty-eight percent (88%) of voters in the state approve of the job Hoeven is doing as governor.” (“Election 2010: North Dakota Senate,” Rasmussen Reports, 06/22/10)

Toss Up Races

Bennet Colorado Filing Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: August 10, 2010

RR 9/15/09

RR 12/8/09

RR 1/13/10

RR 2/2/10

PPP 3/8/10

RR 4/5/10

RR 5/3/10

PPP 5/16/10

SUSA

6/17/10

RR 7/8/1010

20

30

40

50

60

3637 37 37

41 41 44 4440

4546

49 51

4346 48

41

47 47

Bennet / NortonHypothetical Ballot

Norton

Cook & Rothenberg

TOSS-UP

7/12/2010

2009 Total Raised 1st Quarter COH

Bennet (D) $4,824,998 $1,405,178 $3,570,299

Norton (R) * $1,060,384 $900,000 $600,000

Buck (R) $537,314 $218,791 $416,643

Romanoff (D) $629,908 $385,647 $501,959

“The Norton campaign reported on Wednesday that she raised more than $900,000 in the three-month period ending June 30. “This is our best fundraising quarter yet,” she said. “The momentum is on her side. Our support is growing.” (Nate Miller, “Dollars pour into Norton, Buck campaigns for Senate.” Greeley Tribune. 7/09/10)

RR 9/9

/09

RR 12/8

/09

R 2000 1

/13/1

0

RR 1/1

3/10

RR 2/2

/10

RR 3/2

/10

PPP 3/8

/10

RR 4/5

/10

RR 5/3

/10

PPP 5/1

6/10

RR 6/7

/10

SUSA 6/1

7/10

RR 7/8

/10

10

20

30

40

50

60

43 38 41

38

41

38

46

40

41

45

414339

37

4238

43

4544

4044 48

39

46 46 48

Bennet/ Buck Hypothetical Ballot

Buck

??BurrisIllinois

Filing Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: CLOSED

PPP 4/26/09

RR 8/11/09

MMS 10/9/09

RR 10/14/09

GQR 10/28/09

RR 12/9/09

PPP 1/25/10

RR 2/3/10

RR 3/8/10

RR 4/5/10

RR 4/28/10

R 2000 5/5/10

Q Poll 6/13/10

RR 7/7/10

10

20

30

40

50

35 38 35

41 4642 42

4044

3738 38

3140

41 42

41 43 39 34

46

4141

46 41

3039

Giannoulias/Kirk Hypothetical Ballot

GiannouliasKirk

Cook TOSS-UP

RothenbergTILT R

7/12/2010

2009 Total Raised 1st Quarter COH

Giannoulias (D) $3,576,259 $1,206,467 $1,221,629

Kirk (R)* $4,784,638 $2,300,000 $3,900,000

?ReidNevada

Filing Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: CLOSED

20

40

60

41

3941

43

44

5048 46

Reid/Angle Match-up

Reid Angle

CookTOSS-UP

RothenbergTILT R

7/12/2010

2009 Total Raised Pre-Primary COH

Reid (D) $9,556,523 $1,106,706 $9,134,242

Angle (R) $584,909 $298,554 $138,609

“None” Voter Avg2008 = .65% (Obama at .65%)2006 = 4.1% (Controller at 5.6%)2004 = 1.0% (Sen Reid at 1.6%)2002 = 4.9% (Treasurer at 6%)2000 = 1.2% (Sen Ensign at 1.9%)

Filing Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: CLOSED

Cook & Rothenberg

TOSS-UP

SpecterPennsylvania

7/12/2010

2009 Total Raised Pre-Primary COH

Sestak (D) $1,359,827 $132,249 $2,918,668

Toomey (R) $4,868,992 $1,045,903 $4,650,554

RR 1/18/10

F&MC 1/24/10

RR 2/8/10

F&MC 2/21/10

Q Poll 2/28/10

R 2000 3/10/10

RR 3/15/10

F&MC 3/21/10

BR 3/31/10

PPP 4/1/10

Q Poll 4/5/10

MC 4/7/10

RR 4/12/10

RR 5/6/10

FMC 5/9/10

Q Poll 5/11/10

RR 5/12/10

RR 5/19/10

R 2000 5/26/10

RR 6/29/10

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

35

19

35

20

36

39

37

19

3436

34

22

3640

28

40 40

4643

39

4341

43

38 39 4242

27

42 42 42

33

47

42

29

4245

4240

45Toomey / Sestak Hypothetical Ballot

SestakToomey

“Former Rep. Pat Toomey won the Republican nomination and will run against Sestak in the fall in what is likely to be one of the marquee races in the battle for control of the Senate.”(“Primary Results Will Have National Significance,” Dave Espo, AP, 5/18/2010)

Democrat Clear Advantage

BoxerCaliforniaFiling Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: CLOSED

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

46

5048

4649

44 42

45 48 48 4548 45 47 45

43

35

40 39 40

4338 38 39

39

4243 41

44

47

Boxer / Fiorina Hypothetical Ballot

BoxerFiorina

CookLEAN D

RothenbergLEAN D

4/27/2010

2009 Total Raised Pre-Primary COH

Boxer (D) $5,880,591 $2,469,967 $9,676,293

Fiorina (R) $3,584,133 $2,029,699 $620,460

“With much of the energy and enthusiasm of that campaign now dispersed by a staggering economy, a bitter national smack down on health care reform, and concerns about a skyrocketing national deficit, Boxer knows she's no longer the shoe-in she appeared to be a few months ago.” (“Sen. Boxer Acknowledges Tough Re-Election Battle,” CBS 2/KCAL 9, 4/1/10)

Filing Deadline: CLOSED; Primary Date: August 10, 2010

PPP 1/5/10

Q Poll 1/12/1

0

RR 2/1/10

Q Poll 3/15/1

0

RR 4/7/10

RR 5/3/10

RR 5/18/1

0

Q Poll 5/24/1

0

R 2000 5/26/1

0

Q Poll 6/8/10

010203040506070

60 64

5661

55 52 4856

5255

28 23

36

2835 39 45

31 3335

Blumenthal/ McMahon Hypothetical Ballot

Blumenthal McMahon

CookLEAN D

RothenbergDEM FAVORED

Connecticut Dodd (Open)

7/12/2010

2009 Total Raised 1st Quarter COH

Blumenthal (D) N/A $1,880,041 $1,601,814

Schiff (R) $1,485,920 $1,063,309 $1,228,710

McMahon (R) $6,537,661 $8,037,572 $4,302,202

Washington

RR 2/11/10

RR 3/9/10

R2000 3/24/10

RR 4/6/10

SUSA 4/22/10

RR

5/4/10

UW 5/23/10

RR 5/26/10

RR 6/22/10

10

20

30

40

50

60

46 46

52 48

42

4844

4847

48 49

4146

52

46

40

4747

Murray / Rossi Hypothetical Ballot

MurrayRossi

Murray

2009 Total Raised 1st Quarter COH Murray (D) $4,393,302 $1,078,006 $5,916,996Didier (R) $89,011 $262,508 $151,073Akers (R) N/A $276,324 $89,970

Filling Deadline: CLOSED Primary Date: August 17, 2010

Cook TOSS-UP

RothenbergLEAN D

“Republicans scored a late but important recruiting success yesterday when businessman and former state Sen. Dino Rossi announced that he would challenge Democratic incumbent Sen. Patty Murray. Rossi’s announcement puts another Democratic-held seat in play.” (“Washington Senate: Murray Gets a First Tier Challenger,” Cook Political Report, 5/27/10)

??FeingoldWisconsin

Filing Deadline: July 13, 2010; Primary Date: September 14, 2010

Feingold /Westlake Hypothetical Ballot

RR 4/20/10 RR 5/25/10 RR 6/21/10 PPP 6/27/1010

20

30

40

50

6049 47 47 45

3838 41 38

FeingoldWestlake

RR 5/25/10

RRR 6/21/10

PPP 6/27/10

102030405060

46 46 4544

4543

Feingold / Johnson Hypothetical Ballot

FeingoldJohnson

2009 Total Raised 1st Quarter COH Feingold (D) $3,049,467 $1,344,408 $4,264,103Westlake (R) $33,319 $13,719 $2,226Johnson (R) N/A N/A N/A

CookSOLID D

RothenbergDEM FAVORED

Republican Incumbent Seats

CookLIKELY R

RothenbergGOP FAV

7/12/2010

2009 Total Raised 1st Quarter COH

Burr (R) * $4,290,222 $1,900,000 $6,300,000

Marshall (D) $304,864 $163,449 $180,891

CookLIKELY R

RothenbergGOP FAV

2009 Total Raised 1st Quarter COH

Vitter (R)* $4,455,511 $1,000,000 $5,500,000

Melancon (D) $1,962,860 $543,454 $2,262,373

CookSOLID R

RothenbergSAFE

2009 Total Raised 1st Quarter COH

Grassley (R) $2,873,425 $628,965 $5,366,174

Conlin (D) $609,581 $928,355 $1,000,456

2010 GOP Seats: Latest PollingFloridaRR 7/6/1036 Rubio (R)34 Crist (I)15 Meek (D)14 Undecided

IowaRR 6/14/1054 Grassley37 Conlin8 Undecided

KentuckyRR 6/28/1049 Paul42 Conway6 Undecided

MissouriRR 6/28/1048 Blunt43

Carnahan

6 Undecided

North Carolina

RR 7/6/1052 Burr37 Marshall7 Undecided

GOP Leading: 8-0

OhioRR 6/29/1043 Portman39 Fisher13 Undecided

New HampshireRR 5/11/1050 Ayotte38 Hodes9 Undecided

LouisianaRR 6/24/1053 Vitter35 Melancon9 Undecided

Last Updated 7/12/10

2010 Dem Seats: Latest PollingArkansasRR 6/15/10

61 Boozman

32 Lincoln

3 Undecided

ConnecticutQ Poll 6/8/10

55 Blumenthal

35 McMahon

8 Undecided

NevadaRR 7/12/10

46 Angle

43 Reid

5 Undecided

DelawareRR 4/29/10

55 Castle

32 Coons

7 Undecided

North Dakota

RR 6/16/10

73 Hoeven

19 Potter

6 Undecided

IndianaRR 7/8/10

51 Coats

30 Ellsworth

6 Undecided

CaliforniaSUSA 7/11/10

45 Boxer

47 Fiorina

9 Undecided

PennsylvaniaRR 6/29/10

45 Toomey

39 Sestak

11 Undecided

Washington

RR 6/22/1047 Rossi47 Murray3 Undecided

Last Updated 7/12/10

WisconsinPPP 6/27/10

45 Feingold

43 Johnson

12 Undecided

IllinoisRR 7/7/10

40 Giannoulias

39 Kirk

12 Undecided

ColoradoRR 7/8/10

47 Norton

40 Bennet

7 Undecided