Take Home Messages
• Overall these two regions appear as durable regions of forage production regardless of climate change.
• The Eindhoven forage area shows more response to urbanisation pressure and some competition from high value arable crops
• Climsave doesn’t model the physiological stress on animals from heat, but the follow on project IMPRESSIONS should do better
• Would LiveM model comparisons get harder testing in marginal areas of ruminant production?
Simulating Optimum Spatial Land-use Allocation in Europe Across Future 2050 Scenario Space: The Cases of Santander in Spain and Eindhoven in the NetherlandsDaniel Sandars & Eric AudsleySchool of Energy, Environment and Agrifood,Cranfield University, Bedford, MK43 0AL, UK. [email protected]
Funded by the 7th Framework Programme of the European Union
Contract Number: 244031 and 603416
1) METHOD = CLIMSAVE = Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe
Urban Crop
yieldsForestry
Flooding
Rural land
allocation
Hydrology
Biodiversity
Pests &
diseases
Water
use
Snow
cover
Water
availability
Climate & socio-economic scenarios
2) CLIMSAVE = http://www.climsave.eu/climsave/index.html
5) Forage areas are resilient across all scenario sensitivity tests
4) Forage area are resilient with climate change although thereis a change amongst arable crops in Eindhoven
3) Urbanisation makes bigger demands on land use in 2050in Eindhoven. Santander is little changed
