poster: simulating optimum spatial land-use allocation in europe across future 2050 scenario space:...

Take Home Messages • Overall these two regions appear as durable regions of forage production regardless of climate change. • The Eindhoven forage area shows more response to urbanisation pressure and some competition from high value arable crops • Climsave doesn’t model the physiological stress on animals from heat, but the follow on project IMPRESSIONS should do better • Would LiveM model comparisons get harder testing in marginal areas of ruminant production? Simulating Optimum Spatial Land-use Allocation in Europe Across Future 2050 Scenario Space: The Cases of Santander in Spain and Eindhoven in the Netherlands Daniel Sandars & Eric Audsley School of Energy, Environment and Agrifood, Cranfield University, Bedford, MK43 0AL, UK. [email protected] Funded by the 7th Framework Programme of the European Union Contract Number: 244031 and 603416 1) METHOD = CLIMSAVE = Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe Urban Crop yields Forestry Flooding Rural land allocation Hydrology Biodiversity Pests & diseases Water use Snow cover Water availability Climate & socio-economic scenarios 2) CLIMSAVE = http://www.climsave.eu/climsave/index.html 5) Forage areas are resilient across all scenario sensitivity tests 4) Forage area are resilient with climate change although there is a change amongst arable crops in Eindhoven 3) Urbanisation makes bigger demands on land use in 2050 in Eindhoven. Santander is little changed

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Presented at: The LiveM conference in Bilbao took place between 14th and 16th of October 2014 at the Maritime Museum on the banks of the Nervión-Ibaizabal estuary, bringing together around 45 MACSUR researchers from LiveM, CropM and TradeM, as well as representatives of ATF (Animal Task Force), EAAP (European Federation of Animal Science), the GRA Animal Health and GHG Emissions Intensity Network, AgMIP (Agricultural Modelling Improvement Programme) and the SOLID (Sustainable, Organic and Low Input Dairying) project. The aims of the meeting were to showcase modelling research related to LiveM and MACSUR, to bring closer ties between partners and the external initiatives represented, and to hold discussions on the future direction and purpose of the theme as the MACSUR knowledge hub moves towards its second phase from 2015-2017.

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Page 1: Poster: Simulating Optimum Spatial Land-use Allocation in Europe Across Future 2050 Scenario Space: The Cases of Santander in Spain and Eindhoven in the Netherlands

Take Home Messages

• Overall these two regions appear as durable regions of forage production regardless of climate change.

• The Eindhoven forage area shows more response to urbanisation pressure and some competition from high value arable crops

• Climsave doesn’t model the physiological stress on animals from heat, but the follow on project IMPRESSIONS should do better

• Would LiveM model comparisons get harder testing in marginal areas of ruminant production?

Simulating Optimum Spatial Land-use Allocation in Europe Across Future 2050 Scenario Space: The Cases of Santander in Spain and Eindhoven in the NetherlandsDaniel Sandars & Eric AudsleySchool of Energy, Environment and Agrifood,Cranfield University, Bedford, MK43 0AL, UK. [email protected]

Funded by the 7th Framework Programme of the European Union

Contract Number: 244031 and 603416

1) METHOD = CLIMSAVE = Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe

Urban Crop

yieldsForestry

Flooding

Rural land

allocation

Hydrology

Biodiversity

Pests &

diseases