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Revenue Opportunities for Optical Interconnects:
V2 Market and Technology Forecast — 2013-2021Chip-to-Chip and On-Chip Opportunities
September 2013
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About CIR
• CIR has been providing market analysis to the optical networking business since
1985. We bring our experience and long history to the latest wave of optical
networking; networks operating up to the Terabit level and using the latest
protocol suites such as OTN.
• CIR reports provide both qualitative appraisals of the latest optical technologiesand quantitative analyses of their long-term revenue potential. Our analysis
takes into consideration diverse factors such as network topology, financial
results, real estate statistics, technology adoption patterns and pricing trends
•
Companies rely on CIR reports and consulting services because the forecastsare credible, the coverage is balanced and the insights are rock-solid. Leaders
of strategic planning, marketing, sales, engineering and finance make up CIR’s
user base. CIR also offers due diligence services to the financial community
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Markets Covered by CIR
• Active Optical Cabling
• Optical Interconnects
• Optical Engines
• Silicon Photonic
•
400G and Terabit Networks• Next-Generation Access
• Novel Fiber and Laser Technology
• Mobile Backhaul
• Visible Light Communications
•PONs
• Vehicular Ethernet
• Optical Data Centers
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Revenue Opportunities for Optical
Interconnects: Market and Technology
Forecast - 2013 to 2020 Volume II
Published by CIR in September 2013
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About the Report
• In this report, we analyze the latest developments in optical interconnect at thechip level and the progress in this area that is being made by importantresearch teams throughout the world. Both R&D and commercial developmentare discussed.
•
The report looks at optical interconnect from the perspective of classic CPUchips as well as the latest architectures, and the opportunities for opticalinterconnection are compared to a possible future for metal interconnects andinterconnect alternatives that are even more exotic than photonics; carbonnanotubes, especially.
• The report also contains a 10-year roadmap that explains where and when thecommercial opportunities for optical interconnection at the chip level willemerge and how much they will be worth. We also profile the leading firmsand research efforts involved in designing and implementing on-chip and chip-to-chip optical interconnection.
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Strategies for Avoiding the Interconnect
Bottleneck
Strategy Possible
Implementations
Advantages Disadvantages Opportunities
Improving existing
electrical
interconnect
Primarily new
materials including
silver, nanocarbon
or new dielectrics
Minimal
technological risks
None of these new
materials work all
that well and all
appears to have
their own problems
Benefits status quo
in the
semiconductor
industry
Replace electrical
with opticalinterconnect
Optical engine,
optical integration,silicon photonics,
polymer
waveguides
Data rate problem
solved,
Potentially high
cost and hightechnology risk.
Numerous
opportunities forboth components
and computer firms
New architectures We are talking here
primarily about 3D
chips and multicore
processing
Moore's Law
problem solved, at
least temporarily
Seems to require
new interconnect
strategies
Chip-related design
opportunities
Copyright 2013, Communications Industry Researchers, Inc.
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Selected Megatrends Impacting Optical Interconnect
Trend Description Impact Location Impact on Optical
Interconnect
Comment
Moore's Law Doubling of devices
on chip every 18
months to two
years
Servers and routers Putting demands on I/O
that are best handled
optically.
Moore's Law seems to be
running out of steam, but no
one really knows when its
end will come
Multicore
processing
Gets round the
problem of very
fast CPUs outpacing
chip-level I/O
Solves chip-level
interconnection
issue, but adds to
interconnect
demand throughout
the data center
Helps ensure that the
demand on interconnect
will continue, even if
Moore's Law slows
down
Multicore chips are now well
established commercial
reality
3D chips 3D chips are still in the early
stage of development
New
materials for
transistors
and ICs
InP, carbon
nanotubes,
graphene and
quantum dots have
all been proposed
Unclear where chips
based on new
materials would be
located
Still years from
implementation, so
impact is unclear. Could
lead to massive increase
in processing powerwith major impact on
interconnect demand
Nanotube, graphene and QD
transistors are at the R&D
stage only. InP transistors are
too expensive for most
regular applications.
Copyright 2013, Communications Industry Researchers, Inc.
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Opportunities for Chip-Level Optical Interconnection
Materials
Research Program
Active Components Waveguides and Fiber Detector and Modulators Comments
Optical engines Opportunities are immediate, butultimately limited because opticalengines are just miniaturizedtransceivers targeted towards anew market for which they arenot entirely suited.
Often using conventionalfiber, but waveguidetechnology has a role.Future opportunity forwaveguides to furtherminiaturize opticalengines
Conventional technologyfor the most part.Perhaps some mileage tobe had in furtherminiaturization
For now well suited to
board-to-board rather
than chip level
interconnection
Silicon photonics Intel has been working on siliconlasers for years, but still two or
three years fromimplementation. If the manytechnical problems that currentlyexist can be sorted out, thisrepresents a huge opportunity
Silicon waveguides arecommercial technology
that have been used incommercial products forsome years
Commercialized, but beingactively developed by IBM
specifically forinterconnect applications.
Silicon photonics may
finally find its killer app in
chip-level interconnection
Compoundsemiconductors
Standard way of creating activeoptical components.Opportunities exist for smaller,less expensive VCSELs andinnovative hybrid integrationschemes
No technical challengesfor creating waveguidesusing these materials
Conventional material fordetectors and modulatorsat certain frequencies
Interconnection
opportunities are more
tactical than strategic in
nature
Polymers Organic lasers have been createdin the lab but aren't a seriouscontender for use in opticalinterconnection in the near term
Polymer waveguides havebeen proposed for 15years but have yet to findmarket traction.
Polymer detectors andmodulators are currently aresearch topic and are inlimited production
Polymer waveguides are
where the commercial
opportunities are for now
Copyright 2013, Communications Industry Researchers, Inc.
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Chip-Level Laser Paradigms
Laser
Technology
Status Advantages Disadvantages Opportunities
VCSEL Mature technology
that completely
dominates optical
interconnect at the
present time
Small size, high efficiency and
low fabrication cost. VCSELs
easily mounted on chips
Speed challenged
after 10 Gbps,
although now
available at 25 Gbps
and above
Smaller lasers and
new semiconductor
materials. Also
VCSELs at above 50
Gbps
Silicon lasers No all-silicon laser has
been built outside the
lab. But Intel and afew other firms have
been commercializing
hybrid silicon lasers
for years
Potentially low-cost and very
easy to integrate onto chips.
Intel program specificallytargets interconnect
Extremely hard to
design. Still at an
early stage ofdevelopment, so claim
that these will be easy
to fabricate is suspect
Fabricating and
integrating silicon
lasers in commercialquantities
Quantum dot
lasers
Commercially
available and used for
a number of
applications includinginterconnect, but not
widely deployed in
that application
Improved modulation, lasing
threshold, relative intensity
noise, linewidth
enhancement factor andtemperature insensitivity.
Supports more wavelengths
than traditional
semiconductor lasers
Still at early stage of
development. Lack of
volume production at
the present time
Creating interconnect
products based on
quantum dot lasers
Copyright 2013, Communications Industry Researchers, Inc.
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Summary of Chip-Level Optical Interconnect Shipments:
Revenue Generation by Product
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
$ M i l l i o n s
© 2013 Communications Industry Researchers, Inc.
Transmission media
Silicon photonics
PIC-based interconnect
Optical engines
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Summary of Chip-Level Optical Interconnect Shipments:
Revenue Generation by Location (Active components only)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
$ M i l l i o n s
© 2013 Communications Industry Researchers, Inc.
On-Chip
Chip-to-chip
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Other Related CIR Reports
• Revenue Opportunities For Optical Interconnects: Market
And Technology Forecast – 2013-2020 Vol I (Board-to-
Board and Rack-based interconnect)
• Active Optical Cabling Markets: 2013 And Beyond
• Next-Generation Ethernet: From 100 Gbps to 400 Gbps and
Beyond
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THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME