powerpoint slides from cir's report revenue opportunities for optical interconnects: market and...

8/13/2019 PowerPoint Slides from CIR's Report Revenue Opportunities for Optical Interconnects: Market and Technology Forecast - 2013 to 2020 Volume II

http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/powerpoint-slides-from-cirs-report-revenue-opportunities-for-optical-interconnects 1/13

Revenue Opportunities for Optical Interconnects:

V2 Market and Technology Forecast — 2013-2021Chip-to-Chip and On-Chip Opportunities

September 2013



About CIR

• CIR has been providing market analysis to the optical networking business since

1985. We bring our experience and long history to the latest wave of optical

networking; networks operating up to the Terabit level and using the latest

protocol suites such as OTN.

• CIR reports provide both qualitative appraisals of the latest optical technologiesand quantitative analyses of their long-term revenue potential. Our analysis

takes into consideration diverse factors such as network topology, financial

results, real estate statistics, technology adoption patterns and pricing trends

•

Companies rely on CIR reports and consulting services because the forecastsare credible, the coverage is balanced and the insights are rock-solid. Leaders

of strategic planning, marketing, sales, engineering and finance make up CIR’s

user base. CIR also offers due diligence services to the financial community



Markets Covered by CIR

• Active Optical Cabling

• Optical Interconnects

• Optical Engines

• Silicon Photonic

•

400G and Terabit Networks• Next-Generation Access

• Novel Fiber and Laser Technology

• Mobile Backhaul

• Visible Light Communications

•PONs

• Vehicular Ethernet

• Optical Data Centers



Revenue Opportunities for Optical

Interconnects: Market and Technology

Forecast - 2013 to 2020 Volume II

Published by CIR in September 2013



About the Report

• In this report, we analyze the latest developments in optical interconnect at thechip level and the progress in this area that is being made by importantresearch teams throughout the world. Both R&D and commercial developmentare discussed.

•

The report looks at optical interconnect from the perspective of classic CPUchips as well as the latest architectures, and the opportunities for opticalinterconnection are compared to a possible future for metal interconnects andinterconnect alternatives that are even more exotic than photonics; carbonnanotubes, especially.

• The report also contains a 10-year roadmap that explains where and when thecommercial opportunities for optical interconnection at the chip level willemerge and how much they will be worth. We also profile the leading firmsand research efforts involved in designing and implementing on-chip and chip-to-chip optical interconnection.



Strategies for Avoiding the Interconnect

Bottleneck

Strategy Possible

Implementations

Advantages Disadvantages Opportunities

Improving existing

electrical

interconnect

Primarily new

materials including

silver, nanocarbon

or new dielectrics

Minimal

technological risks

None of these new

materials work all

that well and all

appears to have

their own problems

Benefits status quo

in the

semiconductor

industry

Replace electrical

with opticalinterconnect

Optical engine,

optical integration,silicon photonics,

polymer

waveguides

Data rate problem

solved,

Potentially high

cost and hightechnology risk.

Numerous

opportunities forboth components

and computer firms

New architectures We are talking here

primarily about 3D

chips and multicore

processing

Moore's Law

problem solved, at

least temporarily

Seems to require

new interconnect

strategies

Chip-related design

opportunities

Copyright 2013, Communications Industry Researchers, Inc.



Selected Megatrends Impacting Optical Interconnect

Trend Description Impact Location Impact on Optical

Interconnect

Comment

Moore's Law Doubling of devices

on chip every 18

months to two

years

Servers and routers Putting demands on I/O

that are best handled

optically.

Moore's Law seems to be

running out of steam, but no

one really knows when its

end will come

Multicore

processing

Gets round the

problem of very

fast CPUs outpacing

chip-level I/O

Solves chip-level

interconnection

issue, but adds to

interconnect

demand throughout

the data center

Helps ensure that the

demand on interconnect

will continue, even if

Moore's Law slows

down

Multicore chips are now well

established commercial

reality

3D chips 3D chips are still in the early

stage of development

New

materials for

transistors

and ICs

InP, carbon

nanotubes,

graphene and

quantum dots have

all been proposed

Unclear where chips

based on new

materials would be

located

Still years from

implementation, so

impact is unclear. Could

lead to massive increase

in processing powerwith major impact on

interconnect demand

Nanotube, graphene and QD

transistors are at the R&D

stage only. InP transistors are

too expensive for most

regular applications.




Opportunities for Chip-Level Optical Interconnection

Materials

Research Program

Active Components Waveguides and Fiber Detector and Modulators Comments

Optical engines Opportunities are immediate, butultimately limited because opticalengines are just miniaturizedtransceivers targeted towards anew market for which they arenot entirely suited.

Often using conventionalfiber, but waveguidetechnology has a role.Future opportunity forwaveguides to furtherminiaturize opticalengines

Conventional technologyfor the most part.Perhaps some mileage tobe had in furtherminiaturization

For now well suited to

board-to-board rather

than chip level

interconnection

Silicon photonics Intel has been working on siliconlasers for years, but still two or

three years fromimplementation. If the manytechnical problems that currentlyexist can be sorted out, thisrepresents a huge opportunity

Silicon waveguides arecommercial technology

that have been used incommercial products forsome years

Commercialized, but beingactively developed by IBM

specifically forinterconnect applications.

Silicon photonics may

finally find its killer app in

chip-level interconnection

Compoundsemiconductors

Standard way of creating activeoptical components.Opportunities exist for smaller,less expensive VCSELs andinnovative hybrid integrationschemes

No technical challengesfor creating waveguidesusing these materials

Conventional material fordetectors and modulatorsat certain frequencies

Interconnection

opportunities are more

tactical than strategic in

nature

Polymers Organic lasers have been createdin the lab but aren't a seriouscontender for use in opticalinterconnection in the near term

Polymer waveguides havebeen proposed for 15years but have yet to findmarket traction.

Polymer detectors andmodulators are currently aresearch topic and are inlimited production

Polymer waveguides are

where the commercial

opportunities are for now




Chip-Level Laser Paradigms

Laser

Technology

Status Advantages Disadvantages Opportunities

VCSEL Mature technology

that completely

dominates optical

interconnect at the

present time

Small size, high efficiency and

low fabrication cost. VCSELs

easily mounted on chips

Speed challenged

after 10 Gbps,

although now

available at 25 Gbps

and above

Smaller lasers and

new semiconductor

materials. Also

VCSELs at above 50

Gbps

Silicon lasers No all-silicon laser has

been built outside the

lab. But Intel and afew other firms have

been commercializing

hybrid silicon lasers

for years

Potentially low-cost and very

easy to integrate onto chips.

Intel program specificallytargets interconnect

Extremely hard to

design. Still at an

early stage ofdevelopment, so claim

that these will be easy

to fabricate is suspect

Fabricating and

integrating silicon

lasers in commercialquantities

Quantum dot

lasers

Commercially

available and used for

a number of

applications includinginterconnect, but not

widely deployed in

that application

Improved modulation, lasing

threshold, relative intensity

noise, linewidth

enhancement factor andtemperature insensitivity.

Supports more wavelengths

than traditional

semiconductor lasers

Still at early stage of

development. Lack of

volume production at

the present time

Creating interconnect

products based on

quantum dot lasers




Summary of Chip-Level Optical Interconnect Shipments:

Revenue Generation by Product

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

$ M i l l i o n s

© 2013 Communications Industry Researchers, Inc.

Transmission media

Silicon photonics

PIC-based interconnect

Optical engines



Summary of Chip-Level Optical Interconnect Shipments:

Revenue Generation by Location (Active components only)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

$ M i l l i o n s

© 2013 Communications Industry Researchers, Inc.

On-Chip

Chip-to-chip



Other Related CIR Reports

• Revenue Opportunities For Optical Interconnects: Market

And Technology Forecast – 2013-2020 Vol I (Board-to-

Board and Rack-based interconnect)

• Active Optical Cabling Markets: 2013 And Beyond

• Next-Generation Ethernet: From 100 Gbps to 400 Gbps and

Beyond



THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME

powerpoint slides from cir's report revenue opportunities for optical interconnects: market and...

Documents